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2016 NHL Entry Draft [June 24-25th || Buffalo, New York]


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8 hours ago, ButcherG said:

I think Alex Nylander is going to be much better than his brother. This guy is more intense and unreal skill.

 

If we take him with 6th overall, with Matthews, Laine, Puluj, Chychrun, Tkachuk gone, I am a happy camper.

 

 

I think A.Nylander could/will be a star. He's got his brother Willys skill but he seems... Like you said, he has more intensity. I just don't think Benning will take him. Didn't seem very interested in his brother in 2014. 

 

 This year is a better draft then 2014 when I originally wanted Willy at 6th after the combine. I think it will be more of the same for ANylander this year. He will kill the combine  and people will start drooling. He will probably go 7th or 8th though and end up being a steal. 

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6 hours ago, funkyfresh said:

Here's a Dubois profile by Redline Report from January. 

http://www.redlinereport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Dubois-Spotlight-January-2016.pdf

 

For some context here is Virtanen's draft profile by them.

http://www.redlinereport.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Nov.-13-Spotlight-Virtanen.pdf

 

Dubois has better ratings at everything other than skating and physical play, which I think is accurate. Also, he got an A+ in Hockey Sense compared to Virtanen's B-. 

That was a good read. Thanks for that. Do they have a profile on Tkachuk? 

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9 hours ago, baumerman77 said:

 

I still haven't made up my mind from a statistical standpoint which prospect has had the better draft year. But I am now heavily leaning towards Dubois. 

 

Point production is a tricky area to judge,  so many things can make a difference.  Coaching, Power play time, Line mates, divisional teams, league, injuries. and you can’t discredit secondary assist like the are meaningless.    For all we know that secondary assist was him busting his butt back breaking up a play and dishing the puck off.  Or giving a nice drop pass and crashing the net for a screen. That secondary assist could have just as easily been the direct result of the goal. 

 

And if you’re going to compare point production, you have to compare the skill difference between the leagues.   Honestly it makes is next to impossible to compare point production as a definition of which player is better. 

 

The way we got to look at it is, they both put up 99+ points, they are both offensively gifted, call that a draw.  And then compare the traits the can be judged,  skating, shot, IQ, heart, physicality.  And then we try to predicted how they will continue to develop.  Which basically comes down to attitude and determination. We can break it down (statistically) as much as we want but it's extremely hard to predict where each kid will be in 5 years. I think that's why JB puts so much stock into the interviews.

 

 

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10 hours ago, Warhippy said:

I'd keep Subban and draft one of the fallers in the first or someone like Johansen and gamble on the two of them as opposed to taking that risk with bean as I am sure we've as solid a chance with Subban and a highly touted D man from that defensive factory of the Kelowna Rockets as we do with just Bean

 

Not sure why people are so hot to ditch Subban AND picks to move up maybe 10-25 spots to draft a guy who honestly isn't entirely that much more impressive than Johansen this season, comparable height/weight and it's hard to remember the last time Kelowna didn't produce a quality defenseman in the 2nd round (seriously the list is kind of impressive)

 

Just my 2 bits

I agree, it is really just a crap shoot, especially with D.  Unless we are 100% sold on a guy, there is no point in trying to trade risk for risk.  The NHL is filled with top D that were drafted outside of the first round....You watch a guy like Parayko and wonder how this guy came from the 3rd round.  No one knows how their development is going to go, so why risk missing out on a late bloomer. 

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8 hours ago, baumerman77 said:

Interesting. I was not aware of that. 

 

Apropos of nothing, one thing that has stuck out to me regarding the Dubois vs Tkachuk debate was their primary points (goals + primary assists or in other words points minus secondary assists). 

 

Current Stats (regular season + playoffs):

 

All-situations:

Tkachuk: 83 primary points in 67 games (Primary points per game = 1.24) 

Dubois: 93 primary points in 74 games  (Primary points per game = 1.26)

 

Power Play:

 

Tkachuk: 34 primary points in 67 games (Primary points per game = .51)

Dubois: 25 primary points in 74 games (Primary points per game = .34)

 

Even Strength:

Tkachuk: 48 primary points in 67 games (Primary points per game = .72)

Dubois: 60 primary points in 74 games (Primary points per game = .81)

 

Essentially when you take away secondary assists Tkachuk's point total/production drops dramatically. When looking at even strength primary points it drops even more. One of the things that I have struggled to interpret/quantify is the affect of line-mates on Tkachuk statistical output (namely Marner and Dvorak). So if the hypothesis to test is that Tkachuk's stats are inflated because of his line-mates what would we expect the stats to show?

 

I would expect Tkachuk to have a significant amount of secondary assists (because he would be benefiting by being the player to touch it before Marner and Dvorak make a play that leads to a goal). Does the data show this? Yes, in fact he lead the OHL in secondary assists with 41 of them. 38% of Tkachuk's points were secondary assists compare that to his line-mates Marner only had 28 secondary assists which made up 19% of his point total. Similar story with Dvorak who had 41 secondary assists that make up 29% of his point total. I think these stats ( 38%>29%>19%) shows us who is leading/driving the play and who is benefiting from the others. If for example Tkachuk and Marner were driving the play we would likely see Dvorak benefiting from touching the puck before Marner and Tkachuk make a play that produces a goal. But because it happens far more often the other way, I think it is fair to conclude that Marner and Dvorak are driving the play.

 

Let's have a look at Dubois and his line-mates. The one problem that presents itself here more so than in the Tkachuk situation is that Cape Breton switches their lines around a lot and because Dubois has played different positions (sometimes in the same game). But a quick look at the regular season stats from the usual suspects shows that it is likely Dubois who is driving the play. The percent of Dubois point total that is made of secondary assists was 16%; Svechnikov 28%, Joly 15%, Lazarev 27%. Only Joly had a lower secondary assist rate and that was only by 1%. This is quite the contrast to Tkachuk and his linemates.

 

I also think it is worth noting that not only does Dubois outproduce Tkachuk in primary points, but when you look at even strength primary point Dubois handily beats him. Personally, I value even strength primary points more than I do power play primary points as even strength has the difficult of gaining and setting up in the offensive zone whereas on a power play getting in these offensive situation is far easier. 

 

I think this helps to contextualizes the impact of Tkachuk's line-mates on his performance. Of course they still likely very much help him on the primary points. Dubois also has good linemates but not on the same level as Tkachuk's. Also there are two other factors in which the stats need to be contextualized with: one in Tkachuk's favour and one not. First, the OHL is a better league that the QMJHL (my opinion) and second, Tkachuk is over 6 months older which is significant in way of development for a 17/18 year old. In fact, Tkachuk's Age-adjusted primary points per game was 1.1 whereas Dubois was 1.4. This may be more insightful than the aforementioned affect of line-mates.

 

I still haven't made up my mind from a statistical standpoint which prospect has had the better draft year. But I am now heavily leaning towards Dubois. 

I think you are illustrating the kind of rigour that is required to get meaningful results from statistics in a team game and yet, as you say, it still needs more work. 

 

Regression analysis could help with age and league differences.  Forecasting is an estimate and needs to be taken as such.

 

Useful as all this is, Benning is a big advocate of character and a young mans ability to overcome adversity.  These are intangibles and I think he's on the right track.  So the stats will get a candidate consideration but other factors will get them chosen.

 

Enjoy the discussion of picks 4-6 which are more likely for the Canucks.  I heard that Benning had been scouting Dubois personally.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

 

Point production is a tricky area to judge,  so many things can make a difference.  Coaching, Power play time, Line mates, divisional teams, league, injuries. and you can’t discredit secondary assist like the are meaningless.    For all we know that secondary assist was him busting his butt back breaking up a play and dishing the puck off.  Or giving a nice drop pass and crashing the net for a screen. That secondary assist could have just as easily been the direct result of the goal. 

 

And if you’re going to compare point production, you have to compare the skill difference between the leagues.   Honestly is makes is next to impossible to compare point production as a definition of which player is better. 

 

The way we got to look at it is, they both put up 99+ points, they are both offensively gifted, call that a draw.  And then compare the traits the can be judged,  skating, shot, IQ, heart, physicality.  And then we try to predicted how they will continue to develop.  Which basically comes down to attitude and determination. We can break it down (statistically) as much as we want but it's extremely hard to predict where each kid will be in 5 years. I think that's why JB puts so much stock into the interviews.

 

 

Good post.

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12 hours ago, baumerman77 said:

I'm surprised so many people here already think Alex will be better than his brother William. He may turn out to be, but William has excelled since he got drafted and is looks like he is going to be a very good NHLer.

 

Alex's draft year was good but nothing exceptional. Normally at least a couple CHL draft eligible prospect have better draft season each year.

 

Meanwhile since William was drafted he had the third highest points per game 18 year old season in SHL history and then followed it up by the having the second highest points per game 19 year old season in AHL history. And then he ends the season by scoring 13 points in 22 NHL games. Perhaps he is getting all his points playing in the "soft" areas but last I checked "soft" area goals are worth the same as "dirty" goals. 

Your opinion on William has really changed since 2013/14 bauerman ;)


I don't think that you can compare the Nylanders just because they're brothers, because if you compare the 2 in their draft years, they're still different players. William had a higher upside than Alex, but he also held a significant risk. If you compare the 2014 with the 2016 draft, the top10 this year looks more safe than in 2014. Virtanen was considered a safe pick, but he also had questionable upside. The "safe" picks this year still has legit top6/top4 upside IMO.


I also think William was more of a "star-player" than Alex. You kinda have to build the line around him to really get the best out of him, his linemates will have to adapt to him and how he plays. Meanwhile, Alex would probably be a great fit in any teams top6 going forward. Who you prefer depends on the situation IMO. And if you compare Alex's situation with Tkachuk and Dubois, Alex is by far his teams best player. Tkachuk is great, but he's just 1 of many great players in London. Dubois might be the best in Cape Breton, but you could also make a case for Svechnikov, Lazarev and Joly.


Mississauga is basically Nylander and McLeod, but McLeod really struggled offensively when he wasn't playing with Nylander.

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5 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

I agree, it is really just a crap shoot, especially with D.  Unless we are 100% sold on a guy, there is no point in trying to trade risk for risk.  The NHL is filled with top D that were drafted outside of the first round....You watch a guy like Parayko and wonder how this guy came from the 3rd round.  No one knows how their development is going to go, so why risk missing out on a late bloomer. 

For me there's that, we see Johansen vs bean, we see Bean with the better year last year; but more time in the OHL overall and a mere 6 month age difference between the two with Johansen being the healthier between the two in terms of injury

 

But this years point production is roughyl a 20 point gap, yet the two teams are wildly different in their style of play with kelowna being the more defensive minded.

 

We KNOW what Subban can and has done in his career, and people are writing him off because of 2.5 inches in height...

 

I mean really, the trade up of multiple assets is so far from worth it knowing we are attempting to stockpile depth that the very idea borders on the stupid.  The quality D men available in the 2nd round and fallers from the 1st round would be more than capable of being as good as or better than Bean with a rough 15 spot difference in draft position.

 

For an organization that is rebuilding, that historically has never had that depth of skill or depth period on the blue line; to start giving away assets and prospects to move up to do so little because of "potential" has me shaking my head.

 

And if people need to know.  In the later rounds Keith, Weber, Bowey, Edler and more have all been taken in the 2nd round from kelowna, and this past year we saw people happily offering Hamhuis + prospect or + great pick and more for Bowey.

 

We are not in the position where we can start doing things like giving up multiple pieces to gamble when we can already see a very clear and concise picture of what one of those pieces is turning out to be

 

Which is an offensive defenseman

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20 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

For me there's that, we see Johansen vs bean, we see Bean with the better year last year; but more time in the OHL overall and a mere 6 month age difference between the two with Johansen being the healthier between the two in terms of injury

 

But this years point production is roughyl a 20 point gap, yet the two teams are wildly different in their style of play with kelowna being the more defensive minded.

 

We KNOW what Subban can and has done in his career, and people are writing him off because of 2.5 inches in height...

 

I mean really, the trade up of multiple assets is so far from worth it knowing we are attempting to stockpile depth that the very idea borders on the stupid.  The quality D men available in the 2nd round and fallers from the 1st round would be more than capable of being as good as or better than Bean with a rough 15 spot difference in draft position.

 

For an organization that is rebuilding, that historically has never had that depth of skill or depth period on the blue line; to start giving away assets and prospects to move up to do so little because of "potential" has me shaking my head.

 

And if people need to know.  In the later rounds Keith, Weber, Bowey, Edler and more have all been taken in the 2nd round from kelowna, and this past year we saw people happily offering Hamhuis + prospect or + great pick and more for Bowey.

 

We are not in the position where we can start doing things like giving up multiple pieces to gamble when we can already see a very clear and concise picture of what one of those pieces is turning out to be

 

Which is an offensive defenseman

Wow great post WH

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Just now, Gooseberries said:

Wow great post WH

I was just sipping my first taste of java 

 

I felt inspired.

 

And I stand by it.  An organization that has historically lacked depth, skilled depth and blue line depth cannot afford to be giving away yet more prospects and picks in a 2-1 ratio in hopes of something panning out when our recent drafting has seen us doing so well outside of the 1st round

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25 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

For me there's that, we see Johansen vs bean, we see Bean with the better year last year; but more time in the OHL overall and a mere 6 month age difference between the two with Johansen being the healthier between the two in terms of injury

 

But this years point production is roughyl a 20 point gap, yet the two teams are wildly different in their style of play with kelowna being the more defensive minded.

 

We KNOW what Subban can and has done in his career, and people are writing him off because of 2.5 inches in height...

 

I mean really, the trade up of multiple assets is so far from worth it knowing we are attempting to stockpile depth that the very idea borders on the stupid.  The quality D men available in the 2nd round and fallers from the 1st round would be more than capable of being as good as or better than Bean with a rough 15 spot difference in draft position.

 

For an organization that is rebuilding, that historically has never had that depth of skill or depth period on the blue line; to start giving away assets and prospects to move up to do so little because of "potential" has me shaking my head.

 

And if people need to know.  In the later rounds Keith, Weber, Bowey, Edler and more have all been taken in the 2nd round from kelowna, and this past year we saw people happily offering Hamhuis + prospect or + great pick and more for Bowey.

 

We are not in the position where we can start doing things like giving up multiple pieces to gamble when we can already see a very clear and concise picture of what one of those pieces is turning out to be

 

Which is an offensive defenseman

I agree with what you are saying, not trying to nit-pick but Keith was drafted out of Michigan state and joined the Rockets for half a season a year post draft, and Elder was a third round pick who was drafted out of Sweden and joined the rockets after his draft.   

 

But I’ll add also from the rockets.

Severson 2nd round

Barrie 3rd round

Schenn & Meyers 1st round picks. 

 

They are a D producing machine and it's hard to ignore that.

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1 hour ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

 

Point production is a tricky area to judge,  so many things can make a difference.  Coaching, Power play time, Line mates, divisional teams, league, injuries. and you can’t discredit secondary assist like the are meaningless.    For all we know that secondary assist was him busting his butt back breaking up a play and dishing the puck off.  Or giving a nice drop pass and crashing the net for a screen. That secondary assist could have just as easily been the direct result of the goal. 

 

And if you’re going to compare point production, you have to compare the skill difference between the leagues.   Honestly it makes is next to impossible to compare point production as a definition of which player is better. 

 

The way we got to look at it is, they both put up 99+ points, they are both offensively gifted, call that a draw.  And then compare the traits the can be judged,  skating, shot, IQ, heart, physicality.  And then we try to predicted how they will continue to develop.  Which basically comes down to attitude and determination. We can break it down (statistically) as much as we want but it's extremely hard to predict where each kid will be in 5 years. I think that's why JB puts so much stock into the interviews.

 

 

First, I am not saying that secondary assists are meaningless. Just that generally speaking - in most cases - primary assists should be weighted more heavily. Moreover, I was really using secondary assists as a proxy to see who were the driving forces on the line. If you follow the premise that more often than not primary assists are a more important aspect in scoring a goal than secondary (remember only more often than not; I'm not saying 100% of the time) the data shows that Marner and Dvorak are the ones driving the play. That is not to say that Tkachuk doesn't make great break out passes that turn into secondary assists that are the key to the goal on a play but the same would be true of the other two. Once again, I am not talking in absolutes just the majority of the time. 

 

Second, I agree, as I noted, that comparison between the two leagues is difficult and that it very much favours the OHL and thus Tkachuk. 

 

Third, I agree with you that eye test factors and personal interviews are very important to analyze and project future development. But personally I like to attempt to dissect the numbers. Because 1) I am a numbers guys and I feel more comfortable analyzing them; 2) my eye test is not nearly as good as scouts especially in very limited viewing (I don't want to be swayed by the small sample size of games I watch of prospects) 3) I'm not sitting-in on interviews so I don't know what they are like first hand, only through secondary sources. I'm not saying these factors aren't important, they are very important, but rather from a fan perspective with my background I am more interested and comfortable deconstructing the statistics. 

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12 hours ago, Warhippy said:

I'd keep Subban and draft one of the fallers in the first or someone like Johansen and gamble on the two of them as opposed to taking that risk with bean as I am sure we've as solid a chance with Subban and a highly touted D man from that defensive factory of the Kelowna Rockets as we do with just Bean

 

Not sure why people are so hot to ditch Subban AND picks to move up maybe 10-25 spots to draft a guy who honestly isn't entirely that much more impressive than Johansen this season, comparable height/weight and it's hard to remember the last time Kelowna didn't produce a quality defenseman in the 2nd round (seriously the list is kind of impressive)

 

Just my 2 bits

Well I'm basing my 'considering' on a lot of info we're not particularly privy to.

 

I'm making some educated guesses here but... it seems Benning is quite high on Bean for one. Perhaps he feels strongly he's the next Karlsson? He also just signed Stetcher who he presumably quite likes and arguably has a more complete/close to NHL ready game than Subban.

 

So a lot would depend on HOW highly he thinks of Bean, how much he thinks Stetcher can replace Subban's contributions in Utica near term/Vancouver long term, how likely he feels Subban's game will translate to the NHL etc. Just saying something like that is something he might be considering if he really likes Bean. I'm not saying we should for sure toss Subban for some magic 'Bean(s)' ::D. I have no way of knowing what Benning knows.

 

Another option would be to possibly send some of our overflowing middle 6/bottom 9 forward depth back. Vey, Grenier etc and our 2nd. Something along those lines.

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1 hour ago, Hedman said:

Your opinion on William has really changed since 2013/14 bauerman ;)


I don't think that you can compare the Nylanders just because they're brothers, because if you compare the 2 in their draft years, they're still different players. William had a higher upside than Alex, but he also held a significant risk. If you compare the 2014 with the 2016 draft, the top10 this year looks more safe than in 2014. Virtanen was considered a safe pick, but he also had questionable upside. The "safe" picks this year still has legit top6/top4 upside IMO.


I also think William was more of a "star-player" than Alex. You kinda have to build the line around him to really get the best out of him, his linemates will have to adapt to him and how he plays. Meanwhile, Alex would probably be a great fit in any teams top6 going forward. Who you prefer depends on the situation IMO. And if you compare Alex's situation with Tkachuk and Dubois, Alex is by far his teams best player. Tkachuk is great, but he's just 1 of many great players in London. Dubois might be the best in Cape Breton, but you could also make a case for Svechnikov, Lazarev and Joly.


Mississauga is basically Nylander and McLeod, but McLeod really struggled offensively when he wasn't playing with Nylander.

We had some heated debates in 2013/2014 over William and I can honestly say that you were right and I was wrong. I try to form and update my opinions based on evidence and since those debates the evidence has overwhelmingly favoured your position. 

 

I agree with what you're saying here. Looking back I think the biggest risk with William was his attitude and not his play.

 

I think a lot of people are still locked into the opinion they had (and I had) of William before the 2014 draft. Furthermore, when we took Virtanen I think it exacerbated this sentiment and people doubled-down on their opinion of William (and Ehlers for that matter) despite subsequent evidence proving otherwise.  

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32 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Another option would be to possibly send some of our overflowing middle 6/bottom 9 forward depth back. Vey, Grenier etc and our 2nd. Something along those lines.

That would be a great option if it's available.  Almost certainly we'd have to throw Granlund into that list and probably Etem too, although I like what he brings.  Doubtful that any of those would be enough, though.  I'm not super-attached to Subban and would consider moving him too, but we really do have a logjam at forward. 

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Just now, Maniwaki Canuck said:

That would be a great option if it's available.  Almost certainly we'd have to throw Granlund into that list and probably Etem too, although I like what he brings.  Doubtful that any of those would be enough, though.  I'm not super-attached to Subban and would consider moving him too, but we really do have a logjam at forward. 

Yeah I'm sure we'd have to move something decent to move that 2nd up ~15+ spots with Carolina/Boston being the most likely trade partners IMO (as long as Bean's still available there). So it would depend on what those teams needs/wants would be in return as well.

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2 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Yeah I'm sure we'd have to move something decent to move that 2nd up ~15+ spots with Carolina/Boston being the most likely trade partners IMO (as long as Bean's still available there). So it would depend on what those teams needs/wants would be in return as well.

That said, I don't think we need to send the moon and the stars. Bean is still nothing more than a promising prospect with a ton of inherent risk himself. 

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2 hours ago, Crabcakes said:

 

I think you are illustrating the kind of rigour that is required to get meaningful results from statistics in a team game and yet, as you say, it still needs more work. 

 

Regression analysis could help with age and league differences.  Forecasting is an estimate and needs to be taken as such.

 

Useful as all this is, Benning is a big advocate of character and a young mans ability to overcome adversity.  These are intangibles and I think he's on the right track.  So the stats will get a candidate consideration but other factors will get them chosen.

 

Enjoy the discussion of picks 4-6 which are more likely for the Canucks.  I heard that Benning had been scouting Dubois personally.

 

 

If they don't draft top 3, I'd like to see a fwd that is not fun to play against.  To me, that is more Tkachuk.

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28 minutes ago, baumerman77 said:

We had some heated debates in 2013/2014 over William and I can honestly say that you were right and I was wrong. I try to form and update my opinions based on evidence and since those debates the evidence has overwhelmingly favoured your position. 

 

I agree with what you're saying here. Looking back I think the biggest risk with William was his attitude and not his play.

 

I think a lot of people are still locked into the opinion they had (and I had) of William before the 2014 draft. Furthermore, when we took Virtanen I think it exacerbated this sentiment and people doubled-down on their opinion of William (and Ehlers for that matter) despite subsequent evidence proving otherwise.  

It's pretty awesome when someone has the ability to admit they were wrong. I was also under the impression 6th overall was kind of a crap shoot. I still think we made a good pick, but in hindsight, Willie Nylander probably would have been the better pick on account that we would have had better control over his development curve. It's not always raw skill which gets you there, it's how the team can develop its players. I hate that stupid CHL transfer agreement rule. Some guys do well with it and some guys can totally regress because of the lack of challenge. I mean, what on Earth are you supposed to do?! Keep them on the big club and maybe risk how good they can be or send them back to junior and risk how good they can be...? With some guys, it sounds like a lose-lose situation.

 

Also a little aside, here. If we did draft Willie, would Jared have been picked with 24? Maybe Benning decides to pick someone else and blows that pick completely. Will Willie Nylander be better than Jake: there's a good chance, but is having Jake and Jared better than having just Willie...yeah, it definitely is.

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