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2016 NHL Entry Draft [June 24-25th || Buffalo, New York]


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1 minute ago, Warhippy said:

For those keeping track, Jost is now tied at the U18 tourny for points with Connor McJesus all time or some such nonsense

And even with this success against his peers, I heard the kid is falling in the draft!  That can't be right.  Can NHL teams be that ignorant, and bias against the Junior A players?

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33 minutes ago, funkyfresh said:

Tkachuk and Dubois are the clear 4 and 5 picks, as far as I'm concerned. From what I have seen they are pretty close.

3092blz.png

 

Personally, I take a chance on Dubois' upside but they are both going to be great. 

Yeah i agree. I initially wanted Chychrun at 4th, but Dubois and Tkachuk have simply been better and more consistent throughout the whole year. I like Chychrun, but he kinda leaves you craving for more. I don't think that's what you want to see from a top5 pick.

 

Really hard for me to choose who i'd rather have of them. In other words, if we're picking at 4th/5th, i don't really care too much which one of them we're picking, granted management also believes they're in the top5 player category of course.

 

I think i will give the slight edge to Tkachuk though. Can't go wrong with him, and i do think that he would be a nice fit with Horvat going forward. That being said, Dubois would probably also look pretty good with Horvat.

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Hall(1st overall)-Mcdavid(1st overall)-Yakupov(1st overall)

-Mathews(1st overall)-Draisatil(3rd overall)

Hopkins(1st overall)

 

The lottery balls have already chosen their side. They will forever lie directly on Edmonton's forehead.

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Just reading between the lines of Benning's interview, and I'm convinced if they're not picking in the top 4 then it's a defenseman. He basically said as much, saying he's taking the best player available at 3/4. The guys then went on to probe him about positional need, and reinforced that if they're picking 3/4 it will be best player available. I guess outside of that it's a toss up.

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51 minutes ago, Ossi Vaananen said:

Just reading between the lines of Benning's interview, and I'm convinced if they're not picking in the top 4 then it's a defenseman. He basically said as much, saying he's taking the best player available at 3/4. The guys then went on to probe him about positional need, and reinforced that if they're picking 3/4 it will be best player available. I guess outside of that it's a toss up.

I think that's right. And I think that Dubois is the 4th guy. 

 

If he's gone at 5 I think they take Chychrun and Juolevi, in that order, rightly or wrongly. 

 

That's my belief. 

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52 minutes ago, Ossi Vaananen said:

Just reading between the lines of Benning's interview, and I'm convinced if they're not picking in the top 4 then it's a defenseman. He basically said as much, saying he's taking the best player available at 3/4. The guys then went on to probe him about positional need, and reinforced that if they're picking 3/4 it will be best player available. I guess outside of that it's a toss up.

Also, that implies that he already has his mind set on #4. Would think from what we've heard so far that it’s likely Tkachuk or Dubois.

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4 hours ago, funkyfresh said:

Tkachuk and Dubois are the clear 4 and 5 picks, as far as I'm concerned. From what I have seen they are pretty close.

3092blz.png

 

Personally, I take a chance on Dubois' upside but they are both going to be great. 

That's a horribly designed graphic to explain that evaluation. 

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Here is my personal statistical analysis on Tkachuk. For comparison sake, here are Max Domi's stats in his draft +2 year (with his draft year stats in parentheses)


57g 32 goals 70 assists 102 points

(64g 39 goals 48 assists 87 points)

 

Now here are Matthew Tkachuk stats in his draft year

 

57g 30 goals 77 assists 107 points

 

Last year Domi played with Christian Dvorak and Mitch Marner and the same is true of Tkachuk this year. Dvorak had a 12 pt jump in production this year compared to last while Marner had a 10 pt decrease in production so consider it a wash.

 

Either way, Tkachuk had a better statistical year than Domi in his draft + 2 year. Here's where it gets interesting. Domi played 9g in the playoffs last year and only had 5 goals 4 assists. Ironically, his draft year he played 21 playoff games with 11g and 21a for 32p. So far in 11 playoffs games, Tkachuk has 13g 13a for 26 points. If we extrapolated that to 21 games he would have 50points in the playoffs (small sample size but it's at least something to go on). Either way, it will have destroyed Domi's numbers.

 

Now to finish up, Domi in his NHL rookie year had 18 g and 34a for 52 points. Pretty good numbers for a rookie and I think its fairly safe to say that Tkachuk will have a floor of about 50 points in the NHL since it's only his draft year and he should theoretically get better over time. In addition Tkachuk has 3 inches on Domi and can still grow with similar weight right now. Therefore I am fairly confident that Tkachuk will be a 60-80 points player in his prime as I'm pretty sure Tkachuk is a way better prospect than Domi. 

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