badbeatjackpot Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 In the finance or consulting world, every now and then, somebody publishes or comes up with a new way to do business and then it becomes a major trend for the rest of the industry. I believe Benning has done that this year with a quick turnaround / retool. For nearly a decade now, GMs and fans have been preaching patience when it comes to building a contender talking about how it needs to be done through the draft. What Benning has done is find a way to speed up the process while still keeping the draft in mind. Since he has taken over the team, he has acquired NHL ready prospects for 2nd rounders (Baertschi and Vey) traded a young prospect years away from the show (Forsling) for Clendenning, Pedan for a 3rd rounder, drafted McCann and Virtanen, had the luxury of Horvat stepping up. All of these players are either currently NHL ready or will be in 2-3 years. He's kept his first rounders who will be the staple of the team and filled the remainder by using the 2nd and 3rd rounders who are close to being NHL ready. He's created a log jam both on forward and defence as well as goalies. Basically, I think that he's playing percentages and probably understands that not all his moves will pan out but he's created so much internal competition that out of guys like Jensen, Shink, BoSang,Corrado, Baertschi, Vey, Stanton, Biega, a few will emerge to take the spots from the vets. The best analogy is that he's loaded his gun with a lot of bullets all pointed for a run in 2-3 years. By using his 2nd and 3rd rounders on guys that will step up in 1-3 years, he's basically stockpiled players where he has the luxury of choosing the cream of the crop out of his prospects instead of the traditional method of using the draft every year in chronological order which actually decreases the chance of building a strong team. Mathematically speaking, if 1st rounders have 70% chance of making it and 2nd rounders have 30% and we repeat that every year, a lot of things have to go right for the rebuild to work. For instance, hitting 2 correct first rounders in a row is 49%. (0.7*0.7) The odds of hitting consecutive NHLers for 2nd round is only 9% (0.3*0.3) By using his 2nd and 3rd rounders to acquire players that are all 2-3 years away from making an impact, he's increased his odds of making a stacked young team that will be competitive for years to come that are on ELC or are RFA. All Benning has to do is recycle this plan every 3-5 years to restock his prospect pool. I see this blueprint being copied by GMs as it really is a better way to build a team. The beauty is that we still have vets on the team that will still produce in 2 years so the combination of good vets like the Sedins with a logjam of prospects ready to step up and win a spot bodes well for the future. The man is a genius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiggs50 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Yeah he definitely knows what he's doing. Smart hockey guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YEGCanuck Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Agree, Benning has made some bold moves and is on track for a return to the playoffs, as he stated from the outset of his term. Not so sure his approach qualifies as a unique way of doing the business of professional hockey. Benning has proven he is smart and ready to take on the challenge to be a better than average General Manager. That being said, I think it is reasonable to review his overall performance and the ultimate results following a 3 year stint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smithers joe Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 plus, he has stated that he will try and get those draft picks back by the draft...imo, he has a great group of knowledgeable people around him, helping him make the big decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred65 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The 18 year old draft is certainly a hit and miss exercise ....and more misses than hits below the 1st round. But if we didn't have 2 and 3rd etc round picks we wouldn't have .. .. Demko 2nd round . Cassels 3rd round . Subban 4th round . Hutton 5th round . Corrado 5th round . Edler 3rd round . I don't think you can put this into a working model, it's assessing what there is and reacting player by player Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badbeatjackpot Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 Agree, Benning has made some bold moves and is on track for a return to the playoffs, as he stated from the outset of his term. Not so sure his approach qualifies as a unique way of doing the business of professional hockey. Benning has proven he is smart and ready to take on the challenge to be a better than average General Manager. That being said, I think it is reasonable to review his overall performance and the ultimate results following a 3 year stint. I say it's a new way of doing business as traditionally GMs kept their picks for the draft or used the picks for rentals at the deadline. Benning's way is to use 2nd and 3rd for prospects or RFAs that are 2-3 years from being good contributors to the organization. His method of focusing on targeting players of similar age 21-23 is a relatively new concept as it increases the odds of building a solid team for a specific point in time (2-3 years) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badbeatjackpot Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 The 18 year old draft is certainly a hit and miss exercise ....and more misses than hits below the 1st round. But if we didn't have 2 and 3rd etc round picks we wouldn't have .. .. Demko 2nd round . Cassels 3rd round . Subban 4th round . Hutton 5th round . Corrado 5th round . Edler 3rd round . I don't think you can put this into a working model, it's assessing what there is and reacting player by player I think you're right in that every situation is unique but I think the key is that he's trading 2nd rounders and 3rd rounders to get pretty much proven commodities (where their ceiling or potential is pretty much known) while giving up picks that may or may job pan out. Moreover he's still keeping the later rounds and using his scouting abilities to hopefully pick up some gems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadcanucks Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 IMO, JB's strategy has been one borne out of necessity. What's genius about Benning is that he's been able to add a significant number of players in the 21-25 year category without giving up too much of the future or the present. And what Benning's doing is a natural evolution of a contending team falling down and having to re-stock its inventory of young player assets. Give Gillis some credit, because he got the ball rolling (see list of players in the 21-25 cohort that Benning has inherited). Since players in the 21 to 25 year range, if they are capable of playing in the NHL, will have a shelf life of anywhere from five to 10 years, Benning has bought himself time by loading up on players like Vey, Baertschi, Clendening, Pedan, Sbisa, McMillan, Conacher, while inheriting players like Tanev, Stanton, Horvat, Gaunce, Shinkaruk, Jensen, Corrado, Zalewski, Kenins, Friesen, Archibald, Andersson, Subban, Hutton, Cederholm, Markstrom. Benning's plan is not hard to figure out. He's got a nice succession plan in place where guys like Higgins, Vrbata, Burrows, Hansen, Bieksa, and possibly Hamhuis, will be replaced by the players in the 21-25 cohort and recent and upcoming draftees (subject to these players being developed properly to be NHL-ready). This also means that Benning runs the risk of losing a fair number of these players to waivers if he is not able to use them as trade assets. It also means that the turnover of vets from the current roster to next is going to be minimal (IMO, the only player making the jump next season is going to be Baertschi, and that's mainly due to the fact he is subject to waivers). Benning's formula is a derivative of the build out of young talent in the 21-25 year cohort that the elite teams ('hawks, Wings, Kings, to name a few) have been employing. It's really nothing out of the ordinary, other than using future assets (draft picks and recent draftees) to acquire young, long term assets that have a chance of making the grade. We've become so accustomed to seeing a contending team using its 2nd/3rd picks for rentals that it just seems like a "new" way of doing things. New to the Canucks, but not new to the build out of successful NHL franchises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil_314 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 It's a smart way to go about it this way because this team could use an improved youth pipeline moving forward (all thanks to Ron Delorme), and these young guns are better bets for success than entirely unproven but hyped young guns. Coupled with the vets getting older, it's good that Trader Jim is planning ahead for when the Twins, Burr, Hammer, Juice and the rest of the 30+ year-old guys are finished. It's also good to have the premium prospects (1st round pick) and many later, but still good, young assets (these RFA's and our own draft picks). If he could pick up a couple more higher-end D-men (puck-movers or physical beasts) then we should be good moving forward. Hope the rest of the league doesn't emulate this though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 IMO Benning is filling a 18 - 26 year old development timeline for the Canucks. I give Gillis credit for starting the process and more credit to Benning for speeding it up. Canucks are starting to build a depth of talent that I have never see as a fan before. Again, give Gillis and ownership full credit for the AHL franchise purchase. Hard to believe it took over 40 years to get a development team that management could actually call the shots on. That said Manitoba was a excellent partner. Utica is a prime location and all looks very promising there. Benning trades Miller and two skating vets and the Canucks will be well on their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Improve the team through the draft. No other GMs does this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOMapleLaughs Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Secret revealed: There is actually nothing new here. PS. I'm not as much interested in him merely building a team as I am in him building a winning team. If moves such as trading good picks for other teams' scraps leads to that all-important first cup victory for this franchise, well, then he's a genius. Cup or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steen Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The 18 year old draft is certainly a hit and miss exercise ....and more misses than hits below the 1st round. But if we didn't have 2 and 3rd etc round picks we wouldn't have....Demko 2nd round.Cassels 3rd round.Subban 4th round.Hutton 5th round.Corrado 5th round.Edler 3rd round.I don't think you can put this into a working model, it's assessing what there is and reacting player by playerI think I see what you're getting at, and I love those players, but maybe using Benning's new technique, we could have had even better players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I like Benning - I really do. And I think he's making some good moves to accelerate the retool. But I'm going to hold off anointing him as a "genius". If Vey, Clendening, and Baertschi don't really pan out, and McKeown, Forsling, and whoever the Flames pick with the 2015 2nd rounder do, I imagine many of those praising him now will be calling for his head. It wasn't too long ago that Ehrhoff/Samuelsson/Hamhuis were ripping it up, and Hodgson/Rodin/Schroeder were dominating the WJC, and everyone basically thought Gillis could do no wrong. That tune changed pretty quickly too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I don't think "Think Tank" means what you think it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maniwaki Canuck Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Agree with OP that Benning has taken a somewhat original approach that other teams may want to emulate. Just how many will depend on how successful the plan proves to be, and we don't know that yet. If Vey and Clendenning are ready for more responsibility next year, and if Baertschi legitimately makes the team, then the plan is part way to success. If Benning manages to move some older vets to create opportunities for the youth and clear some cap space, that's another box ticked off. And if there's enough cap to make another free agent signing like Vrbata, we might even contend. But if one or more of those things doesn't happen, we could easily stall, and not be that shining an example after all. I like what Benning is doing, but it really will come down to what proportion of his moves are successful, and how much flexibility he can create by moving vets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badbeatjackpot Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 I don't think "Think Tank" means what you think it does. I don't think you know what it means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOMapleLaughs Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 You say: "Think Tank." I hear: "Think TANK!!!"WOOOOO! Come Undone for Chychrun!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canuck Surfer Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I say it's a new way of doing business as traditionally GMs kept their picks for the draft or used the picks for rentals at the deadline. Benning's way is to use 2nd and 3rd for prospects or RFAs that are 2-3 years from being good contributors to the organization. His method of focusing on targeting players of similar age 21-23 is a relatively new concept as it increases the odds of building a solid team for a specific point in time (2-3 years) As much as we nabbed Clendening from Chicago... This is as much their model as Benning's. In the last 14 months they traded for Rundblad (paid a 2knd), Tim Erixon (paid Morin) and Pokka (throw in on Leddy trade). They also signed Trevor Van Riemsdyk as a college UFA. They also had drafted Dahlbeck and Clendening, not in the first round and were in their system. That gave them first the chance to test drive their young D and pick their preferences (ejected Erixon for example, kept Rundblad, traded Clendening who was odds on fave to surface last year at this time). Then the depth to make trades. That was just last year. They gave up 3 good young D at the deadline this year but still have 3 good young D (Van Riemsdyk, Rundblad and Pokka plus the spoils of their trades. Buy Low, sell High. Pretty sure they have this model in the business world? (For those shrewd enough to properly assess value) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Tortorella Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Yes the nhl gms are now copying JB insead of LA or Chicago.... You know the winners of the past 4 of 5 cups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.