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(DISCUSSION) understanding the draft lottery


Scorvat

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Im not sure if there is one of these threads already but i could not find one.

So i understand that if you just miss the playoffs and finish 1st overall of the non playoff teams, you have a 1% at 1st overall. Now if you dont win 1st overall what are the chances at 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc?

Can you please fill me in on the details?

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For this year, you can drop no more than one spot.

So, team X wins the lottery. If team X was originally the 5th worst team, then the 4 worse team would slide one spot. Everyone else retains their spot.

The rules change again next year. Then the first three spots will be available to be drafted.

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so say buffalo finishes last, if they have a 20% chance of picking 1st overall, wouldn't it be more likely that a different team gets the pick? 80%>20%

right?

edit: if there was a raffle with a 1000 tickets and buffalo had 200 of them wouldn't it be more likely that a team from the 800 tickets gets the 1st overall ?

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so say buffalo finishes last, if they have a 30% chance of picking 1st overall, wouldn't it be more likely that a different team gets the pick? 70%>30%

right?

edit: if there was a raffle with a 1000 tickets and buffalo had 300 of them wouldn't it be more likely that a team from the 700 tickets gets the 1st overall ?

Actually, if Buffalo finishes last, they only have a 20% chance of winning the draft lottery. But they would be guaranteed of having no worse than the 2nd overall pick. Not a bad consolation prize.

Here's the list of the odds - http://www.mynhldraft.com/2015-draft/draft-lottery-odds/

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okay so other than the 20% im right?

Yes but you can say that for every other team too, the bottom line is the last place team has the best chance to win, assuming it really is left to chance. And if it is really left to chance what would be the harm in televising the process?

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okay so other than the 20% im right?

For this year, yes. In fact, if you look back at all the years the draft lottery has been in place, the worst team only gets the top pick about 1/3 of the time.

Next year, the first three spots will be selected by lottery.

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Yes but you can say that for every other team too, the bottom line is the last place team has the best chance to win, assuming it really is left to chance. And if it is really left to chance what would be the harm in televising the process?

It would be more exciting than the trade deadline show.

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It would be more exciting than the trade deadline show.

Yeah, they could spend the first half of the day ramping it up. Who's gonna get McDavid? Buffalo? Edmonton? Arizona?

The amount of energy they spend pumping up the Trade Deadline is ridiculous, so it surprises me that they wouldn't do something with an actual bit of suspense on Draft day.

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