Fateless Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 So I've been following www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL for most of the season as my playoff odd tracker, but something caught my eye today. First, Anaheim has a 4 point lead on the rest of the league for the President's Trophy, but they only have been given a 3.1% chance at winning the Cup according the the website. To put that into perspective, the Canucks have been given a 3.2% chance of winning the Cup while Calgary has a 4.4% chance. Call me crazy, but these numbers seem wrong. I don't see the Canucks or the Flames having a better shot at the Cup than Anaheim. I'm not saying Anaheim is a great team and should be considered as competitive for the Cup, but giving higher odds to both Vancouver and Calgary? What are your thoughts? Link to website and stats: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derp... Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Right now if the Ducks play Winnipeg or La in the first round I think both Calgary and Van have a better chance to make it to the second round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apollo Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 3.2 for Vancouver? Where do I bet at those odds lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccr1989 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Because math: Round 1: 50% chance of winning Round 2: 50% chance of winning Round 3: 50% chance of winning Round 4: 50% chance of winning Assuming a 50-50 shot of winning in each round, the probability of winning the cup for any given team once in the playoffs is .50*.50*.50*.50 X 100% = 6.25% Summary: Given that the Canucks and Flames have not clinched yet, and the fact that they will likely be slight underdogs in rounds 2, 3 and 4, the % seems reasonable...ish. I think that the Flames % is definitely too high, I would put them to be an underdog in every round + they have less of a chance of making the playoffs, (Although after tonight its looking pretty solid for Canucks + Flames). On the other side, Anaheim's % definitely seems too low. They must be putting Anaheim at 50-50 or less against Winnepeg/LA. I always look at GF/GA too and Anaheim's really isn't very good for a top team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCNeil Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Yeah its taking into account Vancouver has like a 75% chance to play Calgary, 25% to play LA Anaheim depending on their finish, most likely play Minny or Winnipeg, with LA or even Chicago a reasonable possibility. If they get Minny, that will greatly reduce their chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesB Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Because math: Round 1: 50% chance of winning Round 2: 50% chance of winning Round 3: 50% chance of winning Round 4: 50% chance of winning Assuming a 50-50 shot of winning in each round, the probability of winning the cup for any given team once in the playoffs is .50*.50*.50*.50 X 100% = 6.25% Summary: Given that the Canucks and Flames have not clinched yet, and the fact that they will likely be slight underdogs in rounds 2, 3 and 4, the % seems reasonable...ish. I think that the Flames % is definitely too high, I would put them to be an underdog in every round + they have less of a chance of making the playoffs, (Although after tonight its looking pretty solid for Canucks + Flames). On the other side, Anaheim's % definitely seems too low. They must be putting Anaheim at 50-50 or less against Winnepeg/LA. I always look at GF/GA too and Anaheim's really isn't very good for a top team. Good analysis. I think it is well established that goal differential is a better predictor of playoff performance than points or position in the league standings. And there is almost no seeding advantage for Anaheim as they will have a tough first round no matter who they play. But I agree that are being rated as underdogs in one or more series and probably on the basis of goal differential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amish Rake Fighter Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 I got a feeling that Anaheim's going down in the 1st round. And I'm pretty sure the % chances are calculated using a weighted moving average of performance against the overall record or something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dura_mater Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 So I've been following www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL for most of the season as my playoff odd tracker, but something caught my eye today. First, Anaheim has a 4 point lead on the rest of the league for the President's Trophy, but they only have been given a 3.1% chance at winning the Cup according the the website. To put that into perspective, the Canucks have been given a 3.2% chance of winning the Cup while Calgary has a 4.4% chance. Call me crazy, but these numbers seem wrong. I don't see the Canucks or the Flames having a better shot at the Cup than Anaheim. I'm not saying Anaheim is a great team and should be considered as competitive for the Cup, but giving higher odds to both Vancouver and Calgary? What are your thoughts? Link to website and stats: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html I don't like Anaheims chances of winning the cup. Bruce Boudreau is allergic to the conference finals, their d is average at best and their goaltending will be lucky to get them past the 2nd round. But maybe that's because subconsciously I want to laugh at Kesler failing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinatcc Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 I have a feeling the Wild is going to take it all. They have been playing like a President's Trophy team for 2 months and they don't look like they are slowing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cupbearer Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Given the top teams in the conferences are 101-102 points right now and the 8th seeds are 90-91, there is not a huge spectrum of difference between the 16 clubs that qualify. No more absolute powerhouse teams anymore, so the playoffs will be very competitive. That's good. Also, I'd say of the 16 clubs, their overall chances are pretty close too, with an edge to teams that have the ability to score in bunches (NYR, Tampa Bay) and clubs with awesome goal tending (Montreal). Looking forward to puck drop. For Vancouver, just get in, then turn it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hellosinki Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 On that website, I think that Eastern teams are highly overrated at winning the cup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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