key2thecup Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Average detached home in Vancouver to cost $2.1M by 2030: report A new study is painting a bleak picture for young people when it comes to owning a home in Vancouver. That’s because by 2030, the average detached home price in Vancouver will exceed $2.1-million, according to an alarming Vancity Credit Union Report called “Downsizing the Canadian Dream: Homeownership Realities for Millenials and Beyond.” As the generation called millennials grow up, start families and look to buy homes, “many will have to revise their goals to accommodate rising unaffordability in Metro Vancouver,” the report says. It goes on to say that in the future, mortgage payments will eat up the majority of most households’ income, and in some cases, it will even cost more. While experts and lenders recommend payments not exceed more than 32 per cent of monthly household income, the average Vancouver homeowner spends closer to 42 per cent of their monthly take. By 2030, that percentage could shoot up to 108 per cent, the report says. “The takeaway is that we really need to stop talking and really come up with policies and strategies that will help people to buy homes in the future,” said Andy Broderick, vice-president of community investment at Vancity. “I don’t think the dream [of home ownership] is dead. There’s lots that can be done.” While most might assume the millennial generation wants to rent a breezy loft in a hip urban core, the study suggests nearly three-quarters of millennials say they eventually want to own a detached home. That could include settling for condos instead of the traditional white picket fence home, Broderick said. While average home prices have increased by 126 per cent in the last decade, condo prices have risen by only 43 per cent. Still, Vancity predicts the average condo price will double in the next 15 years to more than $800,000, and those costs will likely be passed on. “The rental market is getting tighter and tighter, and it’s going to continue to,” Broderick said. Those who don’t want to shell out big bucks for a 500-square-foot apartment may think there are cheaper options east of downtown Vancouver, but the report says even Metro Vancouver’s suburbs have seen a sharp increase in home prices. In fact, it says the only affordable community to buy a home 15 years from now will be Langley. “With average property values projected to remain stable at around $525,000, an average household should be able to cover housing expenses with only 26.8 per cent of their income,” it says. Vancity recommend millennial buyers set up a plan outlining their goals for home ownership, and if it doesn’t make sense to buy one, set up a savings plan to build long-term equity. The benchmark price for a detached property in Metro Vancouver is $1,026,300, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. http://bc.ctvnews.ca/average-detached-home-in-vancouver-to-cost-2-1m-by-2030-report-1.2296918 Vancouver homes prices will climb to $2.1 million by 2030: report Vancity Credit Union report says new homebuyers should lower their expectations A new housing report from the VanCity Credit Union says the average house price in Vancouver will climb to $2.1 million within 15 years. Andy Broderick, Vancity's vice-president of community investment, says future homebuyers who want to stay in the Lower Mainland should lower their expectations of what they'll be able to afford to buy. "We'll be looking at more and more comfort with condo ownership, with living in denser conditions," says Broderick. The likelihood of new buyers owning a house with a white picket fence is pretty much nil as the report highlights that wages are not growing at anywhere near the same pace as housing prices. Broderick says the desirability of living in Metro Vancouver is to blame. "You're here for the very reasons that the place is unaffordable," says Broderick. "Realize that you may not be able to buy the kind of house you'd buy far up the Fraser Valley." The report highlights that although Vancouver is the second-most unaffordable city in the world, it's also been named the third-most liveable city in the world. But the report also mentions that the cost of condos will rise as well, leaving the most affordable options in Metro Vancouver cities like Langley, Port Moody and Coquitlam. Focus on millennials The report focuses on home ownership for millennials, or those born approximately between 1980 and the early 2000s. However, a recent report from U.S.-based Federated Investors highlighted that millennials in North America stand to inherit $30 trillion over the next few decades. And a recent housing report from the Vancouver-based Urban Futures Institute showed that despite climbing home and condo prices, millennials were more likely to own a home in 2011 than they were in 2006. And yes, that pattern was the same specifically for the Metro Vancouver region as well. Broderick says the exponential rise in the cost of home ownership is not inevitable. "I think we all have to elevate our awareness of the problem and start asking our municipalities and our provincial government to pull together to come up with solutions," he says. Some of the Vancity report's recommendations for various levels of government include changing zoning to increase density, creating affordable housing, and changing tax structures to create incentives for developers. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-homes-prices-will-climb-to-2-1-million-by-2030-report-1.3009944 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 BS, no body knows. Look at 2008. Market took a huge dive. There will be control factors in place before that can happen unless inflation etc makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armada Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Best be buying a home now then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kragar Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Even if the forecast is correct, that's less than 5% growth per year. Assuming the average quality of the housing does not decrease, this is not a big deal given the prices today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Vancouver is slowly becoming a massive metropolis. The residential neighborhoods will be sacrificed for urban sprawl. Council will go lax on height restrictions and 1000 ft towers will be erected. And the sound of young families will be non existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canuktravella Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 thats assuming that fukishima isnt leaking radiation by then otherwise westcoast will be a dead zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOMapleLaughs Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Rent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 thats assuming that fukishima isnt leaking radiation by then otherwise westcoast will be a dead zoneThat's been occurring for sometime now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Wonder what "Millennials" in NY or Paris do to buy homes...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonLever Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Most homes on the West Side of Vancouver already cost more than $2 million. Like $3, $4, $5+ million. And on the East Side lots of homes are in excess of $1.2, $1.3 Million. So is $2 million such a big deal? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Best be buying a home now then. And VanCity Credit Union will be happy to provide your mortgage! ...Needless to say, I question this report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dekey Pete Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 thats assuming that fukishima isnt leaking radiation by then otherwise westcoast will be a dead zone http://forum.canucks.com/gallery/image/3636-brace-yourselves/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 you mean they don't cost that already? Funny...that's not what the listings say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-DLC- Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 And half will sit empty as they're gobbled up by greedy overseas investors, some of whom are simply hiding dirty money via our real estate market. And I think to myself, what a wonderful world. Not a place I'll want to be anyhow....which is sad, as I was born'/raised here and had never anticipated that things would go downhill so quickly. Money isn't everything, folks. But this flip property for profit deal is turning communities into revolving doors. Just awful that we're sacrificing quality for quantity. Sure, my property value has drastically increased but guess what? I don't care. I want to live here too and that's nearly impossible. Sad day for me. Sold out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 And half will sit empty as they're gobbled up by greedy overseas investors, some of whom are simply hiding dirty money via our real estate market. And I think to myself, what a wonderful world. Not a place I'll want to be anyhow....which is sad, as I was born'/raised here and had never anticipated that things would go downhill so quickly. Money isn't everything, folks. But this flip property for profit deal is turning communities into revolving doors. Just awful that we're sacrificing quality for quantity. Sure, my property value has drastically increased but guess what? I don't care. I want to live here too and that's nearly impossible. Sad day for me. Sold out. Don't be afraid of the rest of our wonderful country. My wife and I went from Kitsilano to Calgary. We miss some aspects of the Vancouver life, but man - making ends meet has been so much easier. I wouldn't recommend moving to Calgary now though, because the job market is tanking with the price of oil. But selling a house in Vancouver and buying one in most other cities/towns in Canada would leave you with a nice chunk of liquid savings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamJamIam Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 On the up side, if you buy a million dollar home now, then wait, it'll probably be worth more as sea levels rise and your property becomes beachfront [finance nerd mode engage] This is a bit of silly report though, as it would take into account that inflation at 2% for 15 years will mean $1 million dollars now would be $1.35 million in 2030. That means house prices won't be doubling in 15 years, they will increase by 50%. That means a 6% increase in house prices per year. Not as sexy as doubling by 2030. With growth rates of 6%, the answer is to just rent and invest all the money you've saved into index funds. You'll make more than double with far less risk, and you won't have to pay property tax. The only reason house prices attract so much attention these days is because people conflate two very different things: where they live and where they invest. Those things should be separate. Because unlike other investments, houses need constant maintenance, renovations and other massive costs to keep them in proper condition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jock Cousteau Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 On the up side, if you buy a million dollar home now, then wait, it'll probably be worth more as sea levels rise and your property becomes beachfront [finance nerd mode engage] This is a bit of silly report though, as it would take into account that inflation at 2% for 15 years will mean $1 million dollars now would be $1.35 million in 2030. That means house prices won't be doubling in 15 years, they will increase by 50%. That means a 6% increase in house prices per year. Not as sexy as doubling by 2030. With growth rates of 6%, the answer is to just rent and invest all the money you've saved into index funds. You'll make more than double with far less risk, and you won't have to pay property tax. The only reason house prices attract so much attention these days is because people conflate two very different things: where they live and where they invest. Those things should be separate. Because unlike other investments, houses need constant maintenance, renovations and other massive costs to keep them in proper condition. Renting is a better investment than buying a home said no one ever... Until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayStation Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Maybe it is time to rename the team the Vancouver Millionaires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UFCanuck Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Vancouver is nothing more than a hedge city to the Chinese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AriGold Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Simple solution, if you don't live here then you can't buy here. Or even, if you own a house in Canada you must live in Canada for 6 months a year or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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