This Summer is the Test for Benning

[grumpworsley]

I would like to see him draft a young big centre (Alexander Dergachev) but I have a feeling it will be another mediocre winger. Up against the cap space seems unlikely Canucks will be in a position to make a trade for a game changer in the off season

[tyhee]

That's kind of reverse logic imo. Even the most highly touted and skilled prospect may not become a big time player. Conversely, many players who have not been drafted with that level of fanfare have turned out to be amazing players that had amazing careers and did a lot for their teams.

The point I'm making is, you don't know what you truly have until you have it, and that takes time. Datsyuk came out of the 6th round, Zetterberg the 7th round, Franzen the 3rd round. I would consider all three in their prime to have been "big game players".

People place too much importance on the surface skill of prospects, where they're drafted and their progression to the NHL. What should have an emphasis placed on is the character of these prospects, their ability to dig down and raise their game to an absolute whole other level.

As for the Canucks, I see Horvat, McCann, Cassels, Gaunce and Shinkaruk all having potential as being big game players. Whether they become or not is really up to them, and what they do with the opportunities they are given.

Regarding Sbisa, you like many, many other people are too quick to jump to a conclusion that cannot be quantified as of yet. There is no "formula" to determining whether a player would have gotten to a certain level or not, intelligent scouting understands that, they will get there when they get there. The determining factor which decides what to do (draft, sign, extend, trade) is if team management believes they see enough now, while combined with what they believe they can do organizationally to bring said player to the level they believe they can become.

Obviously it's a calculated risk, and you do not know unless you actually try, and you certainly will never know if you never try. As for Sbisa's salary and cap hit, it's an unfortunate circumstance of being 1. a high draft pick, 2. being rushed into the league, and 3. having been offered a bridge contract too early (hence the previous 2.9m cap hit which set the bar for his RFA qualification minimum, he certainly would not accept less money).

In terms of net gain, his cap hit has risen merely by 700k, which means that even if the cap stays where it is, we only need to find room for 700k more, with Richardson and Matthias walking, and potentially a veteran or two traded, combined with young players coming up on ELC's 700k is trivial at worst.

If you compare UFA salaries ostensibly to replace Sbisa as you seem to indicate would have been the logical alternative to signing him, the price would have been at minimum 4-5 million /year on a far longer term than 3 years just to replace him with someone who can provide what he already does, but is not a guarantee to be better than Sbisa.

That's not very prudent fiscal management. I have no problems providing my analysis, but I'm not so thick headed as to presume that my word is gospel, and that JB et al do not know what they're doing. If anything declaring someone to be wrong because of a decision they made that you would not be capable of making is the epitome of tomfoolery.

I agree with much of what you write, until you get specifically to Sbisa.

Firstly, the increase in his cap hit is not $700K, it's $1,425K. He had a cap hit of $2.175 million and it will go to $3.6 million. His salary goes up little in the first year, only $300K from $2.9 million to $3.2 million.

The situation is that on his last contract Sbisa was signed to a four year deal with a rapidly escalating salary. His salary over those 4 years was $1.2 million, $2 million, $2.6 million, $2.9 million. His cap hit was the average.

Now obviously I can only speculate on why the salary escalated so rapidly when he'd still be a RFA at the end of the 4 seasons and his entry level contract had expired. My speculation is that Sbisa was seen by the Ducks to be someone with considerably upside potential that they figured would develop rapidly and so were willing to play him for that expected rapid increase in playing ability.

People obviously differ on this. The poster you were replying to said Benning had lost him with the Sbisa signing. I haven't given up on Benning for the future but my reaction to the Sbisa signing was much the same. I don't think he's developed as expected, don't think he was worth anything near that $2.9 million salary he earned this year and think that what I see is Benning escalating Sbisa's salary again partly based on what they expect from him in the future rather than what he's shown to date.

Yes, it's all a gamble. But it also means that the cap room to sign or keep other players is considerably reduced, to keep a player at a salary considerably higher than what I (and from what I see on this forum, on HOF forums and in the media quite a few others) think is his value. It looks like a bad gamble to me. In fact it looks so far outside the realm of reality to me that it sends me looking for what I must be missing.

I hope to be wrong. Maybe Sbisa, like Edler will have better success with a d-partner other than Bieksa next season, but the problem I have hoping for that is that while Edler had previously shown a high level but had a down year, Sbisa hasn't shown that high level. Still, we can all see that he has physical skills, that he is either better than at the start of the season or not quite as bad as at the start of the season depending on how one wishes to word it, and he could prove all of us who think this was a bad signing wrong.

But imo he's got an awful lot of improving to do to make good on Benning's gamble.

To get to JamesB's point in starting the thread, I agree with his central point. Benning has a lot of work to do this summer with many expiring contracts, a still aging core and trades to make both to make way for younger players and to gain draft picks to make up for those traded away, with all that work being watched more critically by a media and fanbase who are more doubtful of him than might have been the case a few months ago.

[GMJB]

Lol people are acting like the Canucks are screwed over for eternity because of the Sbisa contract and like we have a 0% chance of ever winning a cup ever now because of it. Some of you people need to seriously calm down about that I mean first of all it can still work out we have seen Sbisa play good when put in a top 4 role before when the team had Hamhuis Bieksa Tanev and Edler all out with injury and next season hasn't even started yet so just wait and see and even if it doesn't just look at some of the bad contracts on other teams like Bickell in Chicago Engelland in Calgary Richards in LA those teams are all either good this year or have been good in the last few years and they have bad contracts. If it doesn't work out does it suck yes is it crippling to the future of this franchise no.

[VanGnome]

I agree with much of what you write, until you get specifically to Sbisa.

Firstly, the increase in his cap hit is not $700K, it's $1,425K. He had a cap hit of $2.175 million and it will go to $3.6 million. His salary goes up little in the first year, only $300K from $2.9 million to $3.2 million.

The situation is that on his last contract Sbisa was signed to a four year deal with a rapidly escalating salary. His salary over those 4 years was $1.2 million, $2 million, $2.6 million, $2.9 million. His cap hit was the average.

Now obviously I can only speculate on why the salary escalated so rapidly when he'd still be a RFA at the end of the 4 seasons and his entry level contract had expired. My speculation is that Sbisa was seen by the Ducks to be someone with considerably upside potential that they figured would develop rapidly and so were willing to play him for that expected rapid increase in playing ability.

People obviously differ on this. The poster you were replying to said Benning had lost him with the Sbisa signing. I haven't given up on Benning for the future but my reaction to the Sbisa signing was much the same. I don't think he's developed as expected, don't think he was worth anything near that $2.9 million salary he earned this year and think that what I see is Benning escalating Sbisa's salary again partly based on what they expect from him in the future rather than what he's shown to date.

Yes, it's all a gamble. But it also means that the cap room to sign or keep other players is considerably reduced, to keep a player at a salary considerably higher than what I (and from what I see on this forum, on HOF forums and in the media quite a few others) think is his value. It looks like a bad gamble to me. In fact it looks so far outside the realm of reality to me that it sends me looking for what I must be missing.

I hope to be wrong. Maybe Sbisa, like Edler will have better success with a d-partner other than Bieksa next season, but the problem I have hoping for that is that while Edler had previously shown a high level but had a down year, Sbisa hasn't shown that high level. Still, we can all see that he has physical skills, that he is either better than at the start of the season or not quite as bad as at the start of the season depending on how one wishes to word it, and he could prove all of us who think this was a bad signing wrong.

But imo he's got an awful lot of improving to do to make good on Benning's gamble.

To get to JamesB's point in starting the thread, I agree with his central point. Benning has a lot of work to do this summer with many expiring contracts, a still aging core and trades to make both to make way for younger players and to gain draft picks to make up for those traded away, with all that work being watched more critically by a media and fanbase who are more doubtful of him than might have been the case a few months ago.

My bad on the contact details, I miss capgeek and nhlnumbers doesn't often come to mind.

That being said, Benning must really have an instinct if he was willing to go over the 1m mark in terms of a raise.

I agree that the signing was calculated timing wise, and didn't have the desired result, but I think it had the desired effect.

Sbisa was early in the series very physical, but it wasnt effective enough, and that's why I think the lack of results is a failure of coaching, considering the complete lack of ability shown by the entire team.

Someone guessed wrong, or didn't scout properly because the game plan they followed was the absolute wrong one. Way too scrambly in front of their own net, not physical enough, not enough urgency to counteract the forecheck, hard to pin that on Sbisa.

It looked at times that Sbisa was guilty of trying to do too much instead of simplifying his game.

Next two years are critical in determining what kind of defenceman he will become.