JamesB Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Agreed. Usually about 30-40 players/draft become full time nhl players. He is well below top 30 in games played in his draft class and only has 24 nhl games total. I'd say it's probably about 95% safe to label this player especially at the style of game he plays... A bust. Trade him for whatever we can get at this point...3rd or 4th rd pick maybe. Pretty sure its much, much less than that. It is actually significantly more than that, but Standing_Tall's estimate is not too far off. Much of the data is at the following website: http://www.quanthockey.com/Distributions/CareerLengthGP.php Here is some simple math. The answer depends on how we define a "full-time" NHL player. A commonly used definition is a guy who plays 100 or more NHL games in his career. About half of all players who ever play in the NHL reach the 100 game threshold. In a given year a typical NHL team will have over 30 players who play at least one game. About half (15 or 16 ) will meet the 100 game threshold over their careers. As there are 30 teams, that means that in any year there are at least 30 x 15 = 450 full-time players. The average career length for guys who reach the 100 game threshold is about 8 years. Some play more, like the Sedins, and some play less, like Sestito (134 career games) and Brandon McMillan (171 career games), both of whom have probably played their last NHL game. Back to the math. With at least 450 "full-time" NHL players per year who average 8 years that means the league needs about 60 new players per year. So the actual number is about 60 players per draft. This is consistent with data on the likelihood of making the NHL and reaching the 100 game threshold by draft position. Here is a website with the data: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/ Here are some interesting numbers. These show the probability of players taken at a given position reaching the 100 game NHL threshold. #1 pick: essentially 100 %, same for #2 pick. #6 (like Virtanen): about 90% #9 (like Horvat): about 80% #24(like Shinkraruk and McCann): about 70% #29 (like Jensen): about 65% #85 (like Cassels): about 30% 5th round and beyond: about 15% Based on current performance, Horvat now looks like 100%, Virtanen probably less than 90%, Shinkaruk probably less than 70%, McCann more than 70%, Jensen less than 60%, and Cassels way more than 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.