was jensen not good enough last preseason?

[JamesB]

Agreed. Usually about 30-40 players/draft become full time nhl players. He is well below top 30 in games played in his draft class and only has 24 nhl games total. I'd say it's probably about 95% safe to label this player especially at the style of game he plays... A bust.

Trade him for whatever we can get at this point...3rd or 4th rd pick maybe.

Pretty sure its much, much less than that.

It is actually significantly more than that, but Standing_Tall's estimate is not too far off. Much of the data is at the following website:

http://www.quanthockey.com/Distributions/CareerLengthGP.php

Here is some simple math. The answer depends on how we define a "full-time" NHL player. A commonly used definition is a guy who plays 100 or more NHL games in his career. About half of all players who ever play in the NHL reach the 100 game threshold.

In a given year a typical NHL team will have over 30 players who play at least one game. About half (15 or 16 ) will meet the 100 game threshold over their careers.

As there are 30 teams, that means that in any year there are at least 30 x 15 = 450 full-time players. The average career length for guys who reach the 100 game threshold is about 8 years. Some play more, like the Sedins, and some play less, like Sestito (134 career games) and Brandon McMillan (171 career games), both of whom have probably played their last NHL game.

Back to the math. With at least 450 "full-time" NHL players per year who average 8 years that means the league needs about 60 new players per year. So the actual number is about 60 players per draft.

This is consistent with data on the likelihood of making the NHL and reaching the 100 game threshold by draft position. Here is a website with the data: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/

Here are some interesting numbers. These show the probability of players taken at a given position reaching the 100 game NHL threshold.

#1 pick: essentially 100 %, same for #2 pick.

#6 (like Virtanen): about 90%

#9 (like Horvat): about 80%

#24(like Shinkraruk and McCann): about 70%

#29 (like Jensen): about 65%

#85 (like Cassels): about 30%

5th round and beyond: about 15%

Based on current performance, Horvat now looks like 100%, Virtanen probably less than 90%, Shinkaruk probably less than 70%, McCann more than 70%, Jensen less than 60%, and Cassels way more than 30%.

[chickenman92]

Plain and simple, he still doesn't know how or doesn't think he has to play in his own end. Watch him and you'll see. If you don't have time to watch him, he was -12 this year in 59 games - next closest forward was -4 and most of them were plus players. Add in that he doesn't hit and is pretty easy to play against and you have a pretty one dimensional player, that isn't elite at that one dimension - scoring.

Right now, If something clicks and Jensen becomes a more meat and potatoes player like Benning wants, he might be able to be a decent 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th forward in the NHL and pop in 20 goals.

But if I was betting, the smart money says there is a 75% chance he's not in the Canucks organization next season. And if he is, he's IMO the 8th best forward prospect the Canucks have - nothing special there.

[Maniwaki Canuck]

Yes, he did play very well for us last preseason, and did well with the Sedins for a small stretch in 2013-4. He is capable of being a good player. But he doesn't bring it with any kind of consistency. I agree with the comments about him needing to rethink what kind of player he is. If he can get that sorted out, he could still be a good 3rd line winger who provides some secondary scoring. But right now it's mostly a mental thing. The skating, hands and shot are there, but the defense, compete, and work ethic are not.

[Drakrami]

If he wants a chance, how about lighting it up in the AHL?

Hes next to invisible.

[thejazz97]

If he wants a chance, how about lighting it up in the AHL?

Hes next to invisible.

Horvat did squat when he was down in the little leagues, just FYI

[aGENT]

Horvat did squat when he was down in the little leagues, just FYI

Too small of a sample size, coming off injury etc, etc. There's very little reason to use his few games in the AHL as any kind of "baseline".

Never mind that they're totally different players.

[beni]

Hasn't been good enough to warrant NHL duty..

Not sure if he will ever be a NHL regular

[Standing_Tall#37]

It is actually significantly more than that, but Standing_Tall's estimate is not too far off. Much of the data is at the following website:

http://www.quanthockey.com/Distributions/CareerLengthGP.php

Here is some simple math. The answer depends on how we define a "full-time" NHL player. A commonly used definition is a guy who plays 100 or more NHL games in his career. About half of all players who ever play in the NHL reach the 100 game threshold.

In a given year a typical NHL team will have over 30 players who play at least one game. About half (15 or 16 ) will meet the 100 game threshold over their careers.

As there are 30 teams, that means that in any year there are at least 30 x 15 = 450 full-time players. The average career length for guys who reach the 100 game threshold is about 8 years. Some play more, like the Sedins, and some play less, like Sestito (134 career games) and Brandon McMillan (171 career games), both of whom have probably played their last NHL game.

Back to the math. With at least 450 "full-time" NHL players per year who average 8 years that means the league needs about 60 new players per year. So the actual number is about 60 players per draft.

This is consistent with data on the likelihood of making the NHL and reaching the 100 game threshold by draft position. Here is a website with the data: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/

Here are some interesting numbers. These show the probability of players taken at a given position reaching the 100 game NHL threshold.

#1 pick: essentially 100 %, same for #2 pick.

#6 (like Virtanen): about 90%

#9 (like Horvat): about 80%

#24(like Shinkraruk and McCann): about 70%

#29 (like Jensen): about 65%

#85 (like Cassels): about 30%

5th round and beyond: about 15%

Based on current performance, Horvat now looks like 100%, Virtanen probably less than 90%, Shinkaruk probably less than 70%, McCann more than 70%, Jensen less than 60%, and Cassels way more than 30%.

I was going off of a website that had games played/ career. I based my estimate to be on players that play 3 full seasons 200-250games in their roughly 20 years that they can play. So most of the time if they haven't played a full season by 23 or 24, they bust. Alot of this develop a guy for 5 years is a crock, unless he was never going to make it. Your 1st and 2nd rounders will make the nhl by time they are 23, if they will at all.

Jensen is going on 23, has played less than a third of a season, is one dimensional.... Bust. In fact Gaunce is starting to approach that territory. Just glad Benning is starting to clean up alot of gillis' mistakes.

[mpt]

I was going off of a website that had games played/ career. I based my estimate to be on players that play 3 full seasons 200-250games in their roughly 20 years that they can play. So most of the time if they haven't played a full season by 23 or 24, they bust. Alot of this develop a guy for 5 years is a crock, unless he was never going to make it. Your 1st and 2nd rounders will make the nhl by time they are 23, if they will at all.

Jensen is going on 23, has played less than a third of a season, is one dimensional.... Bust. In fact Gaunce is starting to approach that territory. Just glad Benning is starting to clean up alot of gillis' mistakes.

Except Gaunce has a more balanced game and JB has been impressed with his time in Utica

[Jetliner]

Jensen sucks simple as that

[on the cycle]

Jensen sucks simple as that

How insightful. Thank you for contributing a substantial comment about a talented young prospect.

[dilettante]

If Jensen has a good preseason, I wouldn't mind trying him out for 9 games. Maybe he just needs a more definitive opportunity at the next level to motivate him.

If performing well at the AHL level is an indicator of how good someone will be in the NHL than Vey should have been a lot better.

[desiboynux4lifee*******]

Dear god, hopefully Benning is not thinking like you guys. Yeah trade him for a 3rd rounder lol yeah okay, that will help us. You can never have too many prospects, I rather keep him because the upside is still higher then a 3rd rounder or 4th rounder. Like I said lower your expectations on this guy and hope he can turn out to a decent 3rd liner.

[hecyhec]

I have watched Niklas Jensen all year as a Comet season ticket holder and he definitely was a better player during the first part of the year. I have been a STH for 2 years now and these are my observations. He is better with the puck in open ice space and not a very good puck handler as the opponents approach him. Comparing him to other Comet players, he is not a very talented puck handler and more times than not will take a shot instead of looking for the open teammate. Appears to be very selfish with the puck and Travis Green would not scratch him if he really felt he could help the team. He is back in the lineup and has played a bit better the last few games but nobody works as hard as Comets centerman Alex Friesen, Cory Conacher and the talented Sven Baertschi . Those guys play and Friesen and Conacher will mix it up if necessary. Jensen better up his game tenfold or believe me Canucks fans you will not want him in Vancouver.

[riley57]

Nicklas Jensen played well enough to get onto the roster at open night. He didn't stand out though, which is why he was sent down to Utica. He was 'good enough', not 'clear the roster for me' good.

[Blackberries]

Not a jensen fan never have been. Poor mans grabner without the breakaway speed but with a better shot.

Shinkaruk will be a canuck before him.

[Blackberries]

Have noticed he bobbles the puck alot.

Baertschi and him are night and day

[hockeydude474]

Goodbye Jensen. Clearly you and hockey were never meant.

cue the violins.

[N7Nucks]

How insightful. Thank you for contributing a substantial comment about a talented young prospect.

Talented? I hear he sucks

[canucklehead44]

I was going off of a website that had games played/ career. I based my estimate to be on players that play 3 full seasons 200-250games in their roughly 20 years that they can play. So most of the time if they haven't played a full season by 23 or 24, they bust. Alot of this develop a guy for 5 years is a crock, unless he was never going to make it. Your 1st and 2nd rounders will make the nhl by time they are 23, if they will at all.

Jensen is going on 23, has played less than a third of a season, is one dimensional.... Bust. In fact Gaunce is starting to approach that territory. Just glad Benning is starting to clean up alot of gillis' mistakes.

Gaunce? He was a rookie this year, voted most improved player, and is having a solid playoff. Not only that, but he is much more a two-way player. He probably won't be a top 6 forward, but I would not be surprised to see Gaunce become a strong 3rd line player for us.

As for the 29th pick, on average you get something between a fringe NHL player and very good minor leaguer.

No. 29

Average Rating: 3.50

Best: Niklas Kronwall, Mike Green.

Worst: Chris Gotziaman, Brian Wesenberg, Daultan Leveille.

Ranked 7 or better: 10.0%

Ranked 5 or worse: 80.0%

At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 40.0%