Pears Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Considering we haven't even hit the draft yet, let's not jump the gun. No moves have been made so far. You can't say we'll miss the playoffs when we don't even have our set roster. Exactly. Way to early to be predicting this kind of stuff. We could still make a few splashes via trades and/or in free agency that would make us contenders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesB Posted June 13, 2015 Author Share Posted June 13, 2015 A tad too early for this don't you think? At least wait until after free agency when we know what we have going into next season. Considering we haven't even hit the draft yet, let's not jump the gun. No moves have been made so far. You can't say we'll miss the playoffs when we don't even have our set roster. /thread We have no idea who's going to be re-signed and who will be traded/drafted/picked up in free agency. Until we get a better idea closer to camp (and even in camp) it's just too hard to try and predict anything like this. I agree it is early and that we are not yet through the draft and free agency season. So basically I am making predictions about the draft and about free agency. Obviously no one picked in this year's draft will be on the team in 2015-16. Also Benning has indicated he will not be trading away draft picks or prospects to provide immediate help for the team (which I think is the right call). So nothing about the draft will help team next year. As for free agency, the cap will be lower than expected and the Canucks have no room to pay for anyone. They might hope to dump some salary to make room, but that will be tough as many other teams are also in cap trouble. The Canucks could trade away a good player like Vrbata or Hamhuis, but that would make next year's team worse, not better, and would reduce the chance of making the playoffs. So, yes, it is early but it is still possible to use some analysis. We know the cap situation. We know how old the players are, and we have a very good idea of what the roster will look like next year. I could turn out to be very wrong, of course. But at this stage I just don't see where next year's upside is coming from. Just asserting that "the Canucks will make the playoffs" is popular with homers but does not really qualify as analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozzy Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 I agree it is early and that we are not yet through the draft and free agency season. So basically I am making predictions about the draft and about free agency. Obviously no one picked in this year's draft will be on the team in 2015-16. Also Benning has indicated he will not be trading away draft picks or prospects to provide immediate help for the team (which I think is the right call). So nothing about the draft will help team next year. As for free agency, the cap will be lower than expected and the Canucks have no room to pay for anyone. They might hope to dump some salary to make room, but that will be tough as many other teams are also in cap trouble. The Canucks could trade away a good player like Vrbata or Hamhuis, but that would make next year's team worse, not better, and would reduce the chance of making the playoffs. So, yes, it is early but it is still possible to use some analysis. We know the cap situation. We know how old the players are, and we have a very good idea of what the roster will look like next year. I could turn out to be very wrong, of course. But at this stage I just don't see where next year's upside is coming from. Just asserting that "the Canucks will make the playoffs" is popular with homers but does not really qualify as analysis. Apollo's gonna be mad with you... Anyway I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesB Posted June 13, 2015 Author Share Posted June 13, 2015 I like your analysis JamesB, except the part where we see progression for the young guys. Horvat could and should be a 2nd line center, and we should have at least 2-3 young guys (Virtanen, Gaunce, Clendening) up with the big club. Our team already knows how to play our system and Willie has done a good job with accountability. The regular season is much different than playoffs, I think we will do just fine, and remain competitive for a playoff spot. The only factor that guarantees a playoff miss is if any of the Sedins get injured. IMO no players are more valuable to the team than the Sedins. I just don't see anyone else being able to consistently create offence on the team right now. The West is a much tougher race, but I like our chances in year 2 of the Linden and Willie era. I agree that progression of young players is the positive. It is great that the Canucks finally have a pipeline of good young players and I given Benning a lot of credit for that. (And Gillis had by far his best draft in 2013). But next year will be too early for those young guys to provide a much improvement. Yes Horvat will iikely improve enough to be a regular shutdown player. Baertschi will likely replace Higgy on the second line and, down the road, should be a big improvement. But for next year that is probably only a wash. Clendening and Corrado should make the team and could be good down the road. But next year they will be learning the NHL game and are not likely to be much better than guys like Stanton, Bieksa, and Weber were last year. Virtanen could the make team but, if he does, it will be as a 4th liner and he is a long way from his ceiling. McCann and Cassels will not make the big team. Grenier could make the team but, once again, he would be a 4th liner/13th man kind of guy. Vey is a big question mark. I doubt if he can play adequately at 4C and too many guys are ahead of him at RW. Pedan is a year away from making the big team. So things look good down the road. But next year is too early for these young guys to have a major positive effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinatcc Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 Why the Canucks will miss the playoffs next year. Colorado/Dallas/Winnipeg/San Jose/LA/Edmonton cannot be counted on to have bad years to ensure our playoff berth. And with Chiarelli in Edmonton they cannot be counted on the be total bottom feeders anymore 4 losses within our division saw LA in the playoffs and us not. Just think on that for a moment. Yeah we said that last year that COL, DAL, and SJS will all make it to the playoffs. Look what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honky Cat Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 I don't have a problem with speculation at this point...although I don't agree that its a total given that Calgary will finish ahead of us next season, and why is our goaltending going to be worse..?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Cow Disease Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 It seems like a lot of the base on CDC believe that if you don't believe in the team 100%, you're wrong and it will adversely affect the performance of our team. I think the OP was a fair assessment. I wasn't very optimistic last year and really thought we overperformed, all things considered. Coaching plan worked brilliantly in an 82-game run rolling 4 lines equitably. I didn't foresee Bo Horvat having such a positive effect and rise in our team, nor did I see excellent replacements for injury such as Ronalds Kenins and Adam Clendening, who we traded for in mid-season. A lot can change throughout the course of the season but as of today, I think OP is mostly spot on. We'll have our work cut out for ourselves in the competitive division we're placed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Cow Disease Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 I don't have a problem with speculation at this point...although I don't agree that its a total given that Calgary will finish ahead of us next season, and why is our goaltending going to be worse..?... So next year I predict that Miller will return as the #1 and Markstrom will be the backup. That combo is unlikely to be as good as last year. So I think goaltending will be slightly worse next year and probably below the NHL average. He thinks we're trading Lack for a long-term benefit, so we'll take a short-term hit in going with Miller/Markstrom. I won't argue with that. Lack stole us games when Miller was out. Markstrom is capable but truly isn't experienced at the NHL level. I hate using that term about our goalies; seeing "unexperienced" thrown around about goalies like Lack and Schneider are infuriating, but Markstrom hasn't played in the NHL quite as much as them. The safe bet is he won't perform as well as Lack, I reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOOMUCHINTERNET Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 I wonder if we should try to structure our team a bit more next year? Maybe with at least one defensive and one offensive go-to line? It has worked before... I'm sure the Sedin brothers would appreciate 80% o-zone starts again. They'd probably challenge for the scoring award again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeremyCuddles Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 As is that is a fair assessment. I feel we may go through some hefty roster turnover though. Even after preseason as well if we get guys like Grenier, Shinkaruk and Virtanen to seriously push for roster spots. I have to say there is little we can do to improve our defence though. We've shirked drafting them high for so long (If only Bourdon didn't get in that accident ) we have top 6 possibly top 4 tweeners, nothing to write home about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheHawk Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 JamesB I agree with you. JB is going to make changes and maybe Grenier, Baertschi, Vertanen, Corrado and Clendening make the Canucks. I don't like it but JB trades Lack and we are stuck with Miller and his awful contract. I think he(JB) trades Bieska for a draft pick pick and we are stuck with Sbisa and his albatros also little else happens because the "cap" is not going up very much and Canucks are tight to it. To many RFA to sign including Vey (a waste) to be able to do much . The results IMO are Canucks miss the playoff next year but then next year some of the NTC expire and hopefully they keep the payroll down so other changes can be made through trades and or free agents. A bonus will be some good draft picks for the Comets and later the Canucks. Though some may not like it but if next years draft is a good one like this year, it maybe a good year to miss the playoffs and stock up on prospects to be ready for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipBlunt Posted June 13, 2015 Share Posted June 13, 2015 None of us have a &^@#ing clue as to what's going to happen. Stating with certainty that the team won't make the playoffs is the realm of fools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesB Posted June 13, 2015 Author Share Posted June 13, 2015 None of us have a ???? clue as to what's going to happen. Stating with certainty that the team won't make the playoffs is the realm of fools. No one is stating anything with certainty. If my OP suggests that I think we can sure of what will happen then I apologize. But I am pretty sure that my OP indicates that this is what I think is likely to happen and nothing more. I admit that the title sounds a bit more definitive. It would have been more accurate to say "Why the Canucks are likely to miss the playoffs next year." But you have to admit that headline is much less punchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apollo Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Expect to be wrong and immensely embarrassed OP. Hahahah what a joker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brocklovich Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 I think Vancouver will be in a fight with LA Calgary for the division and Winnipeg, Dallas, Minnesota etc for the wild card spots. Highly doubt they are a bottom feeder next year (unless key injuries happen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tyhee Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 None of us have a ???? clue as to what's going to happen. Stating with certainty that the team won't make the playoffs is the realm of fools. I think anyone who's been following this forum knows JamesB isn't a fool. One may reasonably believe that it is too early to make predictions about next season and one may disagree with his statements, but he's not without a mind. On the other hand, I do think the title to this thread was chosen unfortunately as it does seem to make it a given that the Canucks will miss the playoffs. I've already in other posts said my current expectation is that the Canucks to be a bubble team next year as I'd expected them to be a bubble team this year. As for the points James made, I generally agree but have a couple of provisos. One is the obvious one that a lot can still change between now and next season. The other James' statement that Calgary will be better. I have no opinion as to whether the 2015-16 Flames will be better, worse or of similar quality to this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Cow Disease Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 None of us have a ???? clue as to what's going to happen. Stating with certainty that the team won't make the playoffs is the realm of fools. Why bother discussing these things if no one knows with exact certainty what will happen? It's not like we're on a message board where people share opinions and insight... No need for people to get offended by the words "miss the playoffs", it's entirely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honky Cat Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 I think anyone who's been following this forum knows JamesB isn't a fool. One may reasonably that it is too early to make predictions about next season and one may disagree with his statements, but he's not without a mind. On the other hand, I do think the title to this thread was chosen unfortunately as it does seem to make it a given that the Canucks will miss the playoffs. I've already in other posts said my current expectation is that the Canucks to be a bubble team next year as I'd expected them to be a bubble team this year. As for the points James made, I generally agree but have a couple of provisos. One is the obvious one that a lot can still change between now and next season. The other James' statement that Calgary will be better. I have no opinion as to whether the 2015-16 Flames will be better, worse or of similar quality to this season. I'm fully expecting all the experts in the media picking the Canucks to finish out of the playoffs,so may as well get used to it...Not that it means a whole heckuva lot..I remember AV's first year with the Canucks and we were predicted (even by Bob McKenzie and the the TSN panel) to finish at the bottom of the Western Conference..We got to the Conference semi-final that year. Given all of the optics,I would agree with you that the Canucks are a bubble team next season..Narrowly getting in the playoffs,or narrowly missing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24K PureCool Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 I think Vancouver will be in a fight with LA Calgary for the division and Winnipeg, Dallas, Minnesota etc for the wild card spots. Highly doubt they are a bottom feeder next year (unless key injuries happen). Knowing our luck, it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aqua59 Posted June 14, 2015 Share Posted June 14, 2015 Why on earth would you put all that time and energy into next years prediction before there's been a draft, free agency approaching and trades in that mix ? I'm waiting until next regular season starts. Until then we'll all have to listen to the panicky Pete's worrying about resigning players and the salary cap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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