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Why the Canucks will miss the Playoffs Next Year


JamesB

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Simple: we barely made the playoffs this year and we are getting worse (older) faster than we are getting better (young/new better talent). We might get lucky (like the flames this year) but I would suspect a 9-11 place finish (next month or so could change that).

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In my humble opinion, the only contract Benning has overpaid on is Dorsett's. People love him because of his contribution to Horvats work ethic, and his ability of standing up for his teammates. Admirable to be sure, but at 2.65m(I think? Not checking lol) that's a monster overpayment for a 4th line winger.

Miller as an overpayment is arguable, as he seems to bring professionalism, a solid mentor, and veteran presence to our crease. Not going to argue 6x3 was too much. Would've loved to have seen a 2 year term. However, clearly Benning wasn't sold on Lack, hence the signing. I think our fans are a little bit sucked in by the homerism of sticking with a guy with the "right attitude" in Lack. Has Miller, once, made it a egotistical thing in net? I can think of a single occasion early in the season. I think we can use a goaltender of his quality moving forward as we develop Markstrom and hopefully later, Demko.

Sbisa's contract is not overpayment IMO, as compared to like defenceman around the league, considering age, pedigree, non NTC, and what he brings to OUR defence, which was sorely lacking in physicality.

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If things stay the same, then Horvat could be the 2nd line center with Baert and Vrbata...Bonino is too slow and could be a useful 3rd.

The Canucks need to take a page out of the two teams still playing, and that would be fast skaters and good D.

Need to get faster to compete...trade some vets for picks (shed some salary), and and bring in two moblile, big D-men.

Miller needs to play like a $6 Million goalie.

If this happens, they will make the playoffs and compete...it is possible just need someone to do it (make it happen)!

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I am a Canuck fan and have been one for a long time. There are few things I want more than to see the Canucks win a Stanley Cup. And adding good young prospects over the past two years gives me hope for the future.

But next year I expect the Canucks to miss the playoffs. Here are the reasons. Most of this covers material that has been much discussed, but this puts things together.

1. Goaltending.

The Canucks have 3 waiver-eligible goalies. One has to go. After the recent Benning interview (June 11) it is clear that Miller will stay and either Lack or Markstrom will go. This is consistent with the rumor that there is no market for Miller. (His save % was 32nd in the NHL last year among qualified goalies -- well below average. He finished the season with an injury and at his age (35 in July) he may never recover 100%. Even if he does re-injury is a concern and age-related decline is likely. No GM wants to pay 6 million a year for the next two years in that situation.)

When asked about re-signing Lack after next year Benning has been lukewarm at best. The issue is money. As a legit starting NHL goalie Lack should command about 4 million a year -- a big increase that the Canucks cannot afford, especially given Benning's propensity to overpay. And Benning has indicated that he wants to get a second round pick for whichever of Lack or Markstrom is traded. A second round pick is more likely in return for Lack.

So next year I predict that Miller will return as the #1 and Markstrom will be the backup. That combo is unlikely to be as good as last year. So I think goaltending will be slightly worse next year and probably below the NHL average.

2. Defence

Edler and Tanev were good last year and will return as the top pairing and will probably have a similar year. So no change in the top pairing. Edler is in his prime and Tanev is close to his so there is no change expected due to age effects. They are a legitimate NHL top pairing but no more than that.

Hammer is still a good top 4 D who will anchor the second pairing, but he is getting older. On the right side the options are Weber, Bieksa, Clendening and Corrado, all of whom are likely to be on the team next year. None of those guys will be a legitimate top 4 D next year (although I think Clendening will be in the future). My guess is that Weber continues on the second pairing. I see the second pairing as similar in quality to last year or slightly worse -- no better than average for a second pairing.

The 3rd pairing has Sbisa on the left side and my guess is Clendening on the right side with Bieksa as 7th man and Corrado as 8th man. (That means Stanton is gone -- either waived or traded for next to nothing.) This 3rd pairing would be okay but no better than the NHL average for a 3rd pairing.

3. Forwards.

The Sedins will still be the best players on the team and will play on the first line with Burrows (same as the end of last year). That line will be good again but we have to expect some age-related decline. I think they will be a legitimate NHL first line (about average) but no more than that.

The second line will have Bonino and Vrbata again. Everything Benning has said indicates that the 2LW slot is Baertschi's to lose. He has been excellent in Utica and Benning has said that he is the kind of guy who needs to play with other skill players to maximize his value. So he replaces Higgins. Baertschi could become a star down the road but, for next year, I see that change as a wash as Baertschi is better on offense but not as good on D as Higgins. Vrbata will be a year older and Bonino should be about the same. This line will be similar in quality to what it was last year or maybe slightly worse due to age-related decline for Vrbata.

The third line will have Horvat at center. The wingers are up for grabs. Hansen will probably be on one wing (RW or LW depending on the other wing). The other wing could be Higgins, Kassian, Kenins, Virtanen or someone else. My money is on Higgy unless he is traded. This line could be a slight improvement over last year's 3rd line.

The 4th line does not have an obvious center. Right now Vey is 4th on depth chart at center. Dorsett will be on one wing. The other wing could be Kassian, Virtanen, Grenier or Kenins. This line might be similar in quality to the 4th line last year.

4. Overall the Canucks should be slight worse in all three areas next year: goaltending, defence, and forwards

The Canucks have no money for free agents and the cap is a major problem for them.

As for competition, Anaheim will be good again next year. LA should bounce back. Calgary will be good again. They will all finish ahead of the Canucks next year. The Canucks will be fighting with San Jose and Edmonton and a potential crossover team from the Central Division. The odds are against making the playoffs.

The good thing is that the Canucks get a high draft pick in a good draft next year and can make trades at the deadline to acquire more picks, have a monster draft in 2016 and contend for a cup two or three years after that. And young guys will improve over the next few years. In their prime guys like Horvat, Clendening, Baertschi, Virtanen, Pedan, Markstrom, McCann, Cassels, Demko, etc. should be very good.

Okay guys, where are the flaws in this analysis.

Wow where do we start. Its getting depressing coming on here to here all this negativity. I think our offence should improve, I would really like to see Horvat between Virbata and Sven to see how he does and if it doesnt work then put in Bonino. Then Bonino on the 3rd with Burrows and Hanson leaving the 4rth line , Vey or Cassels could end up centering with choices like Dorset and Kenins or Virtanin, Grenier as choices that could work depending on training camp. Dumping some dead weight and bringing in some good young speedy replacements should help. Our goilie situation should be about even and if Markstrom could, and I say could be better then Lack, I mean he has had a year to develope properly and with a solid #1 in Miller who knows but I'll remain possitive. The only issues I see are with our defence and I think thats where JB does his magic this off season with a trade and a draft pick. So lets not be so negative and if so drink more booze and deal with it.

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I am a Canuck fan and have been one for a long time. There are few things I want more than to see the Canucks win a Stanley Cup. And adding good young prospects over the past two years gives me hope for the future.

But next year I expect the Canucks to miss the playoffs. Here are the reasons. Most of this covers material that has been much discussed, but this puts things together.

1. Goaltending.

The Canucks have 3 waiver-eligible goalies. One has to go. After the recent Benning interview (June 11) it is clear that Miller will stay and either Lack or Markstrom will go. This is consistent with the rumor that there is no market for Miller. (His save % was 32nd in the NHL last year among qualified goalies -- well below average. He finished the season with an injury and at his age (35 in July) he may never recover 100%. Even if he does re-injury is a concern and age-related decline is likely. No GM wants to pay 6 million a year for the next two years in that situation.)

When asked about re-signing Lack after next year Benning has been lukewarm at best. The issue is money. As a legit starting NHL goalie Lack should command about 4 million a year -- a big increase that the Canucks cannot afford, especially given Benning's propensity to overpay. And Benning has indicated that he wants to get a second round pick for whichever of Lack or Markstrom is traded. A second round pick is more likely in return for Lack.

So next year I predict that Miller will return as the #1 and Markstrom will be the backup. That combo is unlikely to be as good as last year. So I think goaltending will be slightly worse next year and probably below the NHL average.

2. Defence

Edler and Tanev were good last year and will return as the top pairing and will probably have a similar year. So no change in the top pairing. Edler is in his prime and Tanev is close to his so there is no change expected due to age effects. They are a legitimate NHL top pairing but no more than that.

Hammer is still a good top 4 D who will anchor the second pairing, but he is getting older. On the right side the options are Weber, Bieksa, Clendening and Corrado, all of whom are likely to be on the team next year. None of those guys will be a legitimate top 4 D next year (although I think Clendening will be in the future). My guess is that Weber continues on the second pairing. I see the second pairing as similar in quality to last year or slightly worse -- no better than average for a second pairing.

The 3rd pairing has Sbisa on the left side and my guess is Clendening on the right side with Bieksa as 7th man and Corrado as 8th man. (That means Stanton is gone -- either waived or traded for next to nothing.) This 3rd pairing would be okay but no better than the NHL average for a 3rd pairing.

3. Forwards.

The Sedins will still be the best players on the team and will play on the first line with Burrows (same as the end of last year). That line will be good again but we have to expect some age-related decline. I think they will be a legitimate NHL first line (about average) but no more than that.

The second line will have Bonino and Vrbata again. Everything Benning has said indicates that the 2LW slot is Baertschi's to lose. He has been excellent in Utica and Benning has said that he is the kind of guy who needs to play with other skill players to maximize his value. So he replaces Higgins. Baertschi could become a star down the road but, for next year, I see that change as a wash as Baertschi is better on offense but not as good on D as Higgins. Vrbata will be a year older and Bonino should be about the same. This line will be similar in quality to what it was last year or maybe slightly worse due to age-related decline for Vrbata.

The third line will have Horvat at center. The wingers are up for grabs. Hansen will probably be on one wing (RW or LW depending on the other wing). The other wing could be Higgins, Kassian, Kenins, Virtanen or someone else. My money is on Higgy unless he is traded. This line could be a slight improvement over last year's 3rd line.

The 4th line does not have an obvious center. Right now Vey is 4th on depth chart at center. Dorsett will be on one wing. The other wing could be Kassian, Virtanen, Grenier or Kenins. This line might be similar in quality to the 4th line last year.

4. Overall the Canucks should be slight worse in all three areas next year: goaltending, defence, and forwards

The Canucks have no money for free agents and the cap is a major problem for them.

As for competition, Anaheim will be good again next year. LA should bounce back. Calgary will be good again. They will all finish ahead of the Canucks next year. The Canucks will be fighting with San Jose and Edmonton and a potential crossover team from the Central Division. The odds are against making the playoffs.

The good thing is that the Canucks get a high draft pick in a good draft next year and can make trades at the deadline to acquire more picks, have a monster draft in 2016 and contend for a cup two or three years after that. And young guys will improve over the next few years. In their prime guys like Horvat, Clendening, Baertschi, Virtanen, Pedan, Markstrom, McCann, Cassels, Demko, etc. should be very good.

Okay guys, where are the flaws in this analysis.

Sorry I forgot Kassian, I think he needs to start with the Sedins and hope Willie has patience and let them create some chemistry.

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Why the Canucks will miss the playoffs next year.

Colorado/Dallas/Winnipeg/San Jose/LA/Edmonton cannot be counted on to have bad years to ensure our playoff berth. And with Chiarelli in Edmonton they cannot be counted on the be total bottom feeders anymore

4 losses within our division saw LA in the playoffs and us not. Just think on that for a moment.

Basically this.

We could make the playoffs next year. But it will be an absolute dog fight till the end for the spot and its going to take some big performances by multiple players for it to happen.

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Expect to be wrong and immensely embarrassed OP.

Hahahah what a joker

I would be disappointed if you said anything else.

But I think missing the playoffs would be the best thing that could happen next year as far as long term success is concerned. The Canucks could make several good trades for picks at the deadline and get a high first round pick in what promises to be a very good draft in 2016. I could see both Hammer and Vrbata being traded for first round picks at the deadline, and Bieksa for a second or third. (And, as UFAs, they would all happily go to a contender at that stage and maybe we could re-sign Hammer in the summer of 2016). And one or two other deals at the deadline would also be possible.

Picking up one or two good players in this year's draft and a monster draft in 2016, added to the young strength now in the pipeline, really could make the Canucks a Cup contender again. I personally would find that more exciting than just barely making the playoffs and losing in the first round again.

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I would be disappointed if you said anything else.

But I think missing the playoffs would be the best thing that could happen next year as far as long term success is concerned. The Canucks could make several good trades for picks at the deadline and get a high first round pick in what promises to be a very good draft in 2016. I could see both Hammer and Vrbata being traded for first round picks at the deadline, and Bieksa for a second or third. (And, as UFAs, they would all happily go to a contender at that stage and maybe we could re-sign Hammer in the summer of 2016). And one or two other deals at the deadline would also be possible.

Picking up one or two good players in this year's draft and a monster draft in 2016, added to the young strength now in the pipeline, really could make the Canucks a Cup contender again. I personally would find that more exciting than just barely making the playoffs and losing in the first round again.

One thing I do think will change is that if we are struggling, Benning will not be afraid to pick up draft picks. He stated this past deadline that he was willing to give this core "a chance in the playoffs", which is the reason we held on to Mattias. Clearly this team right now is not capable of getting out of the West's first round.

Now that the core had its chance, Benning will be making the right hockey moves, especially since we know he has been keeping an eye on 2016 prospects since he got here. Stay away from risky FA signings, keep those prospects coming.

I see 2017 as the new beginning for this franchise and really like the style of players we have drafted under Benning.

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I would be disappointed if you said anything else.

But I think missing the playoffs would be the best thing that could happen next year as far as long term success is concerned. The Canucks could make several good trades for picks at the deadline and get a high first round pick in what promises to be a very good draft in 2016. I could see both Hammer and Vrbata being traded for first round picks at the deadline, and Bieksa for a second or third. (And, as UFAs, they would all happily go to a contender at that stage and maybe we could re-sign Hammer in the summer of 2016). And one or two other deals at the deadline would also be possible.

Picking up one or two good players in this year's draft and a monster draft in 2016, added to the young strength now in the pipeline, really could make the Canucks a Cup contender again. I personally would find that more exciting than just barely making the playoffs and losing in the first round again.

If it is looking like the playoffs are not in order by the deadline then personally I would be pretty shocked if JB didnt do this considering he thinks 2016 is a deep draft and he would be maximizing his expiring contract assets.

You would have to think the pending UFAs would waive to go to a contender at the deadline. As difficult as the season would be to watch it would be pretty sweet to see them hit the podium 2/3 times in the first and / or second round

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I think anyone who's been following this forum knows JamesB isn't a fool. One may reasonably believe that it is too early to make predictions about next season and one may disagree with his statements, but he's not without a mind. On the other hand, I do think the title to this thread was chosen unfortunately as it does seem to make it a given that the Canucks will miss the playoffs.

I've already in other posts said my current expectation is that the Canucks to be a bubble team next year as I'd expected them to be a bubble team this year.

As for the points James made, I generally agree but have a couple of provisos. One is the obvious one that a lot can still change between now and next season. The other James' statement that Calgary will be better. I have no opinion as to whether the 2015-16 Flames will be better, worse or of similar quality to this season.

Thanks for the positive comments. And I agree with you about my title. It was misleading. I am far from sure the Canucks will miss the playoffs. I also agree with you about the Canucks being a bubble team.

I think Anaheim will make the playoffs again and I think LA will probably bounce back. I agree that Calgary was lucky this year but they have quite a bit of young talent and will at least contend again next year. And Edmonton worries me now that they have a good GM and a good coach. They have high end offensive talent and adding McDavid obviously helps. McDavid won't be a star in his first year but he will help the team. All they need to do is bring in a couple of reliable D's and they will be tough.

And in the Central Division, Chicago, Minnie, St. Louis, Nashville and Winnipeg will all be good. So I expect that the Canucks will be fighting it out with Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, San Jose, and Minnie for the two wild card spots. They might make it but I think the odds are against them.

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Not that hard to predict.

Lack and Kassian will be moved so Benning can get his picks back and we'll start the season with most the same roster that got intimidated by the Flames lolipop guild with some minor changes to the supporting cast

be happy to eat crow but that's how I see it.

We can make some educated guesses, but who here saw Benning forcing Garrison to waive his NTC? And to then go out and sign both Vrbata and Miller? Then there's the Kesler deal (which we knew was coming yet had no real idea on the return) and the Dorsett and Vey trades. So many unknowns in an offseason that so many people had already earmarked us as contenders for a top 10 pick well before the season had even started.

...

I could turn out to be very wrong, of course. But at this stage I just don't see where next year's upside is coming from. Just asserting that "the Canucks will make the playoffs" is popular with homers but does not really qualify as analysis.

Sure, but they're being positive at least. And there's some substance to back up that as a valid position, so it's not like it's completely bunk. They at least can say, "with what we have now I think we can make it." From there it's a reasonable assumption that Benning isn't going to go out and make the team worse (aka full rebuild or terrible trades that really hurt the team).

Compare that to, "Benning won't make any moves to make the team better so with what we have now I predict we won't make the playoffs." It's not reasonable to assume Benning is just going to sit on his hands at this point and not try and make sure the team has a reasonable chance at providing the winning culture he keep talking about.

Will it actually happen that we make the playoffs? Maybe, maybe not, but would you rather hope for the best, or hope for the worst?

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I am a Canuck fan and have been one for a long time. There are few things I want more than to see the Canucks win a Stanley Cup. And adding good young prospects over the past two years gives me hope for the future.

But next year I expect the Canucks to miss the playoffs. Here are the reasons. Most of this covers material that has been much discussed, but this puts things together.

1. Goaltending.

The Canucks have 3 waiver-eligible goalies. One has to go. After the recent Benning interview (June 11) it is clear that Miller will stay and either Lack or Markstrom will go. This is consistent with the rumor that there is no market for Miller. (His save % was 32nd in the NHL last year among qualified goalies -- well below average. He finished the season with an injury and at his age (35 in July) he may never recover 100%. Even if he does re-injury is a concern and age-related decline is likely. No GM wants to pay 6 million a year for the next two years in that situation.)

When asked about re-signing Lack after next year Benning has been lukewarm at best. The issue is money. As a legit starting NHL goalie Lack should command about 4 million a year -- a big increase that the Canucks cannot afford, especially given Benning's propensity to overpay. And Benning has indicated that he wants to get a second round pick for whichever of Lack or Markstrom is traded. A second round pick is more likely in return for Lack.

So next year I predict that Miller will return as the #1 and Markstrom will be the backup. That combo is unlikely to be as good as last year. So I think goaltending will be slightly worse next year and probably below the NHL average.

2. Defence

Edler and Tanev were good last year and will return as the top pairing and will probably have a similar year. So no change in the top pairing. Edler is in his prime and Tanev is close to his so there is no change expected due to age effects. They are a legitimate NHL top pairing but no more than that.

Hammer is still a good top 4 D who will anchor the second pairing, but he is getting older. On the right side the options are Weber, Bieksa, Clendening and Corrado, all of whom are likely to be on the team next year. None of those guys will be a legitimate top 4 D next year (although I think Clendening will be in the future). My guess is that Weber continues on the second pairing. I see the second pairing as similar in quality to last year or slightly worse -- no better than average for a second pairing.

The 3rd pairing has Sbisa on the left side and my guess is Clendening on the right side with Bieksa as 7th man and Corrado as 8th man. (That means Stanton is gone -- either waived or traded for next to nothing.) This 3rd pairing would be okay but no better than the NHL average for a 3rd pairing.

3. Forwards.

The Sedins will still be the best players on the team and will play on the first line with Burrows (same as the end of last year). That line will be good again but we have to expect some age-related decline. I think they will be a legitimate NHL first line (about average) but no more than that.

The second line will have Bonino and Vrbata again. Everything Benning has said indicates that the 2LW slot is Baertschi's to lose. He has been excellent in Utica and Benning has said that he is the kind of guy who needs to play with other skill players to maximize his value. So he replaces Higgins. Baertschi could become a star down the road but, for next year, I see that change as a wash as Baertschi is better on offense but not as good on D as Higgins. Vrbata will be a year older and Bonino should be about the same. This line will be similar in quality to what it was last year or maybe slightly worse due to age-related decline for Vrbata.

The third line will have Horvat at center. The wingers are up for grabs. Hansen will probably be on one wing (RW or LW depending on the other wing). The other wing could be Higgins, Kassian, Kenins, Virtanen or someone else. My money is on Higgy unless he is traded. This line could be a slight improvement over last year's 3rd line.

The 4th line does not have an obvious center. Right now Vey is 4th on depth chart at center. Dorsett will be on one wing. The other wing could be Kassian, Virtanen, Grenier or Kenins. This line might be similar in quality to the 4th line last year.

4. Overall the Canucks should be slight worse in all three areas next year: goaltending, defence, and forwards

The Canucks have no money for free agents and the cap is a major problem for them.

As for competition, Anaheim will be good again next year. LA should bounce back. Calgary will be good again. They will all finish ahead of the Canucks next year. The Canucks will be fighting with San Jose and Edmonton and a potential crossover team from the Central Division. The odds are against making the playoffs.

The good thing is that the Canucks get a high draft pick in a good draft next year and can make trades at the deadline to acquire more picks, have a monster draft in 2016 and contend for a cup two or three years after that. And young guys will improve over the next few years. In their prime guys like Horvat, Clendening, Baertschi, Virtanen, Pedan, Markstrom, McCann, Cassels, Demko, etc. should be very good.

Okay guys, where are the flaws in this analysis.

no one likes it when you take off the rose colored specs

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We can make some educated guesses, but who here saw Benning forcing Garrison to waive his NTC? And to then go out and sign both Vrbata and Miller? Then there's the Kesler deal (which we knew was coming yet had no real idea on the return) and the Dorsett and Vey trades. So many unknowns in an offseason that so many people had already earmarked us as contenders for a top 10 pick well before the season had even started.

Sure, but they're being positive at least. And there's some substance to back up that as a valid position, so it's not like it's completely bunk. They at least can say, "with what we have now I think we can make it." From there it's a reasonable assumption that Benning isn't going to go out and make the team worse (aka full rebuild or terrible trades that really hurt the team).

Compare that to, "Benning won't make any moves to make the team better so with what we have now I predict we won't make the playoffs." It's not reasonable to assume Benning is just going to sit on his hands at this point and not try and make sure the team has a reasonable chance at providing the winning culture he keep talking about.

Will it actually happen that we make the playoffs? Maybe, maybe not, but would you rather hope for the best, or hope for the worst?

why would jb make the team worse with a full rebuild? he is supposed to be the guru of talent. what better talent to pick from than the junior pool and what better way to pick from that talent than with high end picks?

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/thread

We have no idea who's going to be re-signed and who will be traded/drafted/picked up in free agency. Until we get a better idea closer to camp (and even in camp) it's just too hard to try and predict anything like this.

The best part was when he started reaching..

"This line will be similar in quality to what it was last year or maybe slightly worse due to age-related decline for Vrbata."

Really he's one year older coming off a career year lol! I agree with hippy, if we don't make the playoffs, it will be due to the fact other teams have better years than ours.. Not due to vrabata hitting an age wall!

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