Positve and Negative Surprises

[JamesB]

I posted a surprises thread once before (a long time ago). Sorry to do the same thing again but this is probably the slowest week of the year for Canuck news. (Memorial Cup is over, Calder Cup is over, Canuck season ended long ago, but the draft, free agency, and the deadline for qualifying offers are still about two weeks away. And, by the way, the Stanley Cup is now over as well.)

Anyway, I did some homework. I checked out things that got positive comments and negative comments and made lists of things that seemed to get the most attention. I am not saying I agree with all of them -- in fact I don't. And that explains why some things seem a bit inconsistent -- like Utica being a big positive and disappointment in the development of some of the Utica prospects. (Although both those things can happen at the same time.)

Some things did not make the list -- like the Utica fan support or Kenins contributions to the Canucks or Markstrom's great year in Utica. But that is why we have an "other" category.

(I asked David Letterman to do a top 10 list for the Canuck surprises but it turns out he has retired.)

If anyone is willing to participate I would be very interested in the responses.

By the way, the second question is asking which of these thing you think is really a significant surprise. It is not asking whether you think the criticism is unfair or unwarranted.

Thanks

[Wilbur]

Utica making the finals was probably the most pleasant surprise. The evolution of Bo Horvat was a close second.

On the negative side, the Canucks D coming apart at the seams is very worrying.

[SaintPatrick33]

Excellent poll, well researched. I would say Horvat was the most exciting, it has been a long time since a Canucks rookie flashed this much potential in his rookie year, gives a boost to the youth movement in knowing that we can draft decent players.

Most disappointing was the regression of our defence, to be schooled by a young flames team was downright embarrasing, but on the bright side we needed to make the playoffs to show what this teams true weaknesses are.

[BanTSN]

Somebody better let Bieksa know his career is almost over.

[JamesB]

I don't understand the second question. Are we answering because we feel the negativity was unneeded or unfair? Or do we actually choose the item that bothered us the most this season?

Hope this makes sense

Yes it does make sense. I worried about this potential ambiguity. I have tried to fix it with an edit.

[Crabcakes]

Positive surprises - I voted for what I liked the best from the list, Benning building a stockpile of prospects. I am not surprised by this. A true surprise might be Cole Cassels performance. You don't expect a 3rd round pick to look so good, so soon. Late bloomers usually take longer. This guy flew under the radar in his draft year.

Negative surprises - Nothing on the list really surprised me, some disappointed. I guess the most important item was the defense not playing up to scratch against the Flames. The good news though is that JB knows exactly what he needs to do to improve the team short term.

[TheLastStandingCloutierFan]

Utica making it to the finals was really cool. Really proud of the fan base they have there too.

Yeah our defence was Swiss cheese in the playoffs (huehuehuehue).

[JamesB]

Somebody better let Bieksa know his career is almost over.

Not claiming his career is nearly over. I am claiming that is what a lot of people think. I do not know how many CDC comments say that next year he will probably we relegated to 7th man on the Canuck D. That would imply that he does not have a lot of time left in the NHL.

My personal projection is 2 more years, maybe 3 at the outside. He finishes out this Canuck contract, signs for a low price somewhere else. plays a year or maybe two as a depth D, then retires. That would be a very normal career trajectory for someone with his track record. And he has had a very good career. (He is just turning 34.)

[Sbriggs]

Bo was a treat to watch this year and gave me hope that we do have a positive future coming soon but my biggest surprise had to be Cole Cassels. I think this guy is going to be a all around great player, leader, two way player and hockey know how. I really hope he makes the big club this year wether out of the gate or call up and sticks but I believe over all he will have a huge impact on the Cunucks for years to come.

[Outsiders]

Positive

1) Benning adding future core prospects

Close 2nd) Bo making team and playing unbelievably well

Negative

1) Miller Signing

2) Nucks d getting whooped by Calgary

3) Bieksa sucked

[HC20.0]

Utica making the finals and Bo Horvat were better surprises then I would have imagined. Also, our offense came back to life! It was fun watching the Canucks for the first time since 2011-2012! A lot of good to build on here!

On the downside, that series against Calgary was dreadful on all accounts. Our D was destroyed, and that's being nice. The most winnable series in the first round and we blew it bad. Also Bieksa losing a step too.... I wanna say our PP too, even though it finished 10th. Honestly, it felt like it should have been lower. It let us down so many times. Lu's return to Vancouver was a classic example. 5 on 3, 5 minutes to go, and we just sucked hard.

[Harvey Specter]

Organizational development-wise, I went with the Calder Cup Final run by our Utica Comets as our biggest surprise of the season. Horvat's entrance into the big show was extremely pleasant as well, given our success with prospects in the past. -knock on wood-

As for the negatives, I chose "Canuck D was embarrassed by Calgary in playoffs - and then Benning says how much he likes Sbisa and Weber".

However, I disagree with the inclusion of Weber's in the description, as he has done what is expected of him for the amount that he is being paid (this past season) and his projected RFA salary. His 11 defensemen goals led our defensive corps and he still gets flack for not producing in his understood and limited role. He was brought in by the old regime as defensive depth and he has not disappointed in meeting his expectations, hence Benning's interest in extending him in the near future.

[komodo1970]

My pleasant surprise was Edler's turn around.

He goes from a 22 pnt. season w/ a league worst -39 rating to a 31 pnt. effort and a +13 rating. That shows impressive character and really emphasizes the cancerous attitude Torts brought to the dressing room.

My negative comes from an old story in Vancity. Another year of goalie bashing and controversy.

[JamesB]

Organizational development-wise, I went with the Calder Cup Final run by our Utica Comets as our biggest surprise of the season. Horvat's entrance into the big show was extremely pleasant as well, given our success with prospects in the past. -knock on wood-

As for the negatives, I chose "Canuck D was embarrassed by Calgary in playoffs - and then Benning says how much he likes Sbisa and Weber".

However, I disagree with the inclusion of Weber's in the description, as he has done what is expected of him for the amount that he is being paid (this past season) and his projected RFA salary. His 11 defensemen goals led our defensive corps and he still gets flack for not producing in his understood and limited role. He was brought in by the old regime as defensive depth and he has not disappointed in meeting his expectations, hence Benning's interest in extending him in the near future.

I see your point about Weber. I agree that for a guy with a bargain basement cap hit who was expected to be 7th man on the Canuck D last year he was actually a positive surprise, contributing to the PP and finishing the year in the top 4. So I agree Weber did everything and more than could be expected in the regular season. However, he did get exposed by Calgary. In the playoffs he had 0 points and was -5 (worst on the team). And, being a smaller D, he does not contribute to the physical game and in fact does get pushed around by physical forwards. He is regarded as a decent skater for a D but he is not what you could call fast either. He best skill is obviously his excellent shot.

I have no problem with Weber as 7th man or even on the third pairing. But if he is in your top D, chances are the D is struggling.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

I voted for the things that really "surprised" me: (1) Utica's playoff run and (2) Benning's results (to-date) in contract negotations.

Most of the other items listed in the poll weren't really "surprises" for me but more the results that were in-line with what I expected from this season (both the good and the bad).

On the positive side: I predicted (based on regression alone) that the Canucks would make the playoffs, I expected Benning to work on rebuilding the prospect pool, I though Horvat looked ready for the NHL, and (again due to regression) I predicted most of the core players would have "bounce back" seasons.

I thought Cassels looked primed to have a strong season but he certainly more than surpassed my expectations. That was another surprise.

On the negative side: I thought Miller would be reliable in posting roughly league average numbers as a starter but could possibly struggle with the western travel schedule and might show some signs of age-related decline. His below-average statistics were a mild surprise but within the realm of possibilities that I imagined for him. I also expected Eddie Lack would out-perform Miller by the end of the season (but didn't expect it would require an injury to Miller for him to get the chance). I thought that Bieksa was showing some signs of age-related decline last season and that this might continue in 2014-15 (although I didn't expect him to struggle nearly as much as he did at certain times--possible because I expected to see the Hamhuis-Bieksa pairing used much more than it was). I had concerns about Virtanen and while I hoped he'd have a big season, I wasn't surprised by his statistical setbacks (although in hindsight I believe much of his perceived "struggles" were due to factors outside of his control). I expected Green would make the kids earn their icetime in Utica and that our prospects would be brought along slowly (and carefully) in the AHL. And since the Canucks D was an issue all season (and it has been for a while), I was not surprised that our defense was one of the weak areas that the Flames were able to exploit in the playoffs (although I was surprised at times by Willie's lack of response and adjustment from a coaching perspective).

So like I said at the top, on both the positive and negative side, there weren't a lot of surprises (at least among the choices listed in the poll). Utica's run was certainly the biggest positive surprise of the year for me, since I didn't believe they were anywhere close to contenders for the Calder this season. And Benning's record so far on the contracts side of the business (and how this might relate to his ability as a talent evaluator) has been the biggest negative surprise IMO, although I think it's still too early for any definitive statements on whether or not he's a good negotiator or how capable he might be in managing the salary cap. I've just been surprised by the direction he seems to be trending towards in these areas, but I'd like to see more of his longterm plan revealed for this team before I start really questioning his decisions as a first-year GM.

That said, hopefully the coming years reveal some of Benning's negative surprises to be positive ones.

Maybe Sbisa becomes a solid top-4 D who's actually a bargain on his new contract. Maybe he even becomes a suitable replacement for prime-level Hamhuis or Bieksa. Maybe Dorsett's scoring totals in 2014-15 are not just "career year" stats but the kind of levels he can maintain as a consistent 25-point 4th liner over the next four years. Maybe he'll also prove his 2014-15 Corsi was an aberration and he's actually quite capable of driving the play and posting positive possession numbers. Maybe Miller surprises everyone and he actually has a second dominant season (like 2009-10) left in his career. Or maybe Miller manages to at least perform better than a 0.915 Sv% (his career average) over the remainder of his current $6 million deal with Vancouver (and isn't vastly out-performed by Lack during that time--wherever Eddie ends up playing).

I'll be extremely happy to admit I was wrong (and I'm very much hoping to) if anything like this happens.

[aGENT]

I voted for Cassels. I had a good feeling about him but his play this year has exceeded even those already hopeful expectations. Kids going to be a 3C beast for us in a few years IMO.

Didn't really know what to vote for negative surprise though as none of those were terribly surprising and/or I don't agree with the poll choices. Voted "other".

If I'm voting for a negative (though not really a surprise), it's Miller's contract. Though I thought that was a questionable move from the start. Would have preferred either a 2 year X $5m deal or a "lesser" vet D to split games with Lack and spent money upgrading the D instead.

[Ronning4center]

I'm wondering how much the coaching had to do with the way our D played. Theyve always been pretty damn good and they are not all that much older....

[JamesB]

I voted for the things that really "surprised" me: (1) Utica's playoff run and (2) Benning's results (to-date) in contract negotations.

Most of the other items listed in the poll weren't really "surprises" for me but more the results that were in-line with what I expected from this season (both the good and the bad).

On the positive side: I predicted (based on regression alone) that the Canucks would make the playoffs, I expected Benning to work on rebuilding the prospect pool, I though Horvat looked ready for the NHL, and (again due to regression) I predicted most of the core players would have "bounce back" seasons.

I thought Cassels looked primed to have a strong season but he certainly more than surpassed my expectations. That was another surprise.

On the negative side: I thought Miller would be reliable in posting roughly league average numbers as a starter but could possibly struggle with the western travel schedule and might show some signs of age-related decline. His below-average statistics were a mild surprise but within the realm of possibilities that I imagined for him. I also expected Eddie Lack would out-perform Miller by the end of the season (but didn't expect it would require an injury to Miller for him to get the chance). I thought that Bieksa was showing some signs of age-related decline last season and that this might continue in 2014-15 (although I didn't expect him to struggle nearly as much as he did at certain times--possible because I expected to see the Hamhuis-Bieksa pairing used much more than it was). I had concerns about Virtanen and while I hoped he'd have a big season, I wasn't surprised by his statistical setbacks (although in hindsight I believe much of his perceived "struggles" were due to factors outside of his control). I expected Green would make the kids earn their icetime in Utica and that our prospects would be brought along slowly (and carefully) in the AHL. And since the Canucks D was an issue all season (and it has been for a while), I was not surprised that our defense was one of the weak areas that the Flames were able to exploit in the playoffs (although I was surprised at times by Willie's lack of response and adjustment from a coaching perspective).

So like I said at the top, on both the positive and negative side, there weren't a lot of surprises (at least among the choices listed in the poll). Utica's run was certainly the biggest positive surprise of the year for me, since I didn't believe they were anywhere close to contenders for the Calder this season. And Benning's record so far on the contracts side of the business (and how this might relate to his ability as a talent evaluator) has been the biggest negative surprise IMO, although I think it's still too early for any definitive statements on whether or not he's a good negotiator or how capable he might be in managing the salary cap. I've just been surprised by the direction he seems to be trending towards in these areas, but I'd like to see more of his longterm plan revealed for this team before I start really questioning his decisions as a first-year GM.

That said, hopefully the coming years reveal some of Benning's negative surprises to be positive ones.

Maybe Sbisa becomes a solid top-4 D who's actually a bargain on his new contract. Maybe he even becomes a suitable replacement for prime-level Hamhuis or Bieksa. Maybe Dorsett's scoring totals in 2014-15 are not just "career year" stats but the kind of levels he can maintain as a consistent 25-point 4th liner over the next four years. Maybe he'll also prove his 2014-15 Corsi was an aberration and he's actually quite capable of driving the play and posting positive possession numbers. Maybe Miller surprises everyone and he actually has a second dominant season (like 2009-10) left in his career. Or maybe Miller manages to at least perform better than a 0.915 Sv% (his career average) over the remainder of his current $6 million deal with Vancouver (and isn't vastly out-performed by Lack during that time--wherever Eddie ends up playing).

I'll be extremely happy to admit I was wrong (and I'm very much hoping to) if anything like this happens.

Excellent analysis, This pretty much matches my feelings. I agree that not all the items I listed in the poll are surprising when you think about it. But I think they all surprised some people. For me, Cassels, Utica, and Horvat were all genuine positive surprises though. I agree that regression to the mean leading to bounce-backs for the core and making the playoffs was foreseeable and not very surprising.

I was surprised by Benning's contracts. I assumed he would be a smart, tough negotiater. And I was surprised that the Canuck D had as much trouble with Calgary in the playoffs as they did. Both the hitting (Ferland. etc. ) and the speed (Gaudreau, etc.) gave the Canuck D a lot of trouble.

But if the your comments above (shown in bold) turn out to come true, which is positive, then we will all say Benning is a genius. Heck, I would settle for 2 out of 3.

[smithers joe]

higgins, burrows, hansen and richardson had our pk near the top of the league..

bieksa and kassian's season, not up to par...two candidates that could use a change of scenery.

[cory40]

I was very happy with this year. I felt our D would not be up to par. In fact if we had better D, Henrick and Daniel could probably each get 7 -10 more points. It really hurts not having a hammer on the point.