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Scientists Build Case for 'Sixth Extinction' ... and Say It Could Kill Us


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http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/scientists-build-case-sixth-extinction-say-it-could-kill-us-n378586



Even conservative calculations show the world is in the midst of a sixth mass extinction that's being caused by our species — and is likely to lead to humanity's demise if unchecked, scientists reported Friday.

The scientists' analysis, published in the open-access journal Science Advances, follows up on more than a decade's worth of warnings about a rapid loss of global biodiversity. Many experts say the loss has risen to the scale seen during five previous global extinction events — the most recent of which occurred 65 million years ago when the dinosaurs died off.

The claims provide the theme of Elizabeth Kolbert's Pulitzer Prize-winning book, "The Sixth Extinction." But such claims have drawn skeptical responses as well. The skeptics say it's difficult to judge the "background rate" of extinctions, as well as the current rate of species extinction.





4:40

Related: Extinction Could Get Worse by 2200, Scientists Say

The team behind the new study, led by Gerardo Ceballos of the National Autonomous University of Mexico, tried to address such concerns by doubling the commonly cited background rate — going from one species extinction per million species per year to two extinctions. And for the current rate, they turned to a list maintained by the International Union for Conservation of Nature — which they characterized as a conservative accounting.

Based on those figures, the extinction rate since 1900 has been eight to 100 times higher than the expected background rate, the researchers said. "The particularly high losses in the last several decades accentuate the increasing severity of the modern extinction crisis," they reported.

"There are examples of species all over the world that are essentially the walking dead," one of the study's co-authors, Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University, said in a news release.


The researchers noted that amphibians, which account for 7,300 of the species documented by the IUCN, have been particularly hard-hit. "Only 34 extinctions have been documented with a high level of certainty since 1500, yet [more than] 100 species have likely disappeared since 1980," they said.

Many of the causes for biodiversity loss have been traced to industrialization, deforestation and other, less obvious human factors. For example, in the case of the amphibians, the wave of extinctions have been traced to the rapid spread of a fatal fungus through global shipping.

Flash Interactive: See When Species Rose and Fell

Ceballos warned that the human species itself could eventually fall victim to the sixth extinction.

"If it is allowed to continue, life would take millions of years to recover, and our species itself would disappear early on," he said.

Although the report paints a depressing picture, Ceballos and his colleagues hold out a slender ray of hope.

"Avoiding a true sixth mass extinction will require rapid, greatly intensified efforts to conserve already threatened species, and to alleviate pressures on their populations — notably habitat loss, overexploitation for economic gain and climate change," they write. "All of these are related to human population size and growth, which increases consumption (especially among the rich), and economic inequity. However, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing."

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It makes sense amphibians have been hard hit, they breathe through their moist skin & are thus very susceptible to environmental change. Humans facing extinction? Seems unlikely in the near (100-200 year) future, unless an asteroid takes us out.

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It makes sense amphibians have been hard hit, they breathe through their moist skin & are thus very susceptible to environmental change. Humans facing extinction? Seems unlikely in the near (100-200 year) future, unless an asteroid takes us out.

If we can survive another 100 years at the current rate of scientific advances we will have overcome most obstacles. 100% renewable non polluting energy on a worldwide grid. 100% recycling. Clean up of our environment. practical immortality. mental fusion with the hive mind core....

And if I finally get my rocket boots I can die happy.

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It makes sense amphibians have been hard hit, they breathe through their moist skin & are thus very susceptible to environmental change. Humans facing extinction? Seems unlikely in the near (100-200 year) future, unless an asteroid takes us out.

The balance between man and environment is quite delicate and I agree extinction seems unlikely. ...and even though we are like cockroaches, surviving almost anything that is thrown at us :emot-parrot:

it still could happen....If we loose the bees we are done. The Bee population has been decimated in the last few years. No pollinators no food. Wouldnt take long for the hungry zombie apocalypse

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The balance between man and environment is quite delicate and I agree extinction seems unlikely. ...and even though we are like cockroaches, surviving almost anything that is thrown at us :emot-parrot:

it still could happen....If we loose the bees we are done. The Bee population has been decimated in the last few years. No pollinators no food. Wouldnt take long for the hungry zombie apocalypse

When Mother Nature has had enough of our $&!#, she'll exterminate us. She's got 4+ billion years that she survived without us.

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People in developing countries need to stop having kids, then immigrating to developed countries where most of the pollution comes from. It adds way more problems to pollution, because suddenly those new immigrants are taking more and more resources. If we want to see changes, the entire world needs to cut it's population by half. Europe would have a shrinking population if they didn't have immigration and that's probably a good thing.

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Y2k? Nope

Mayan calender? Nope.

Seems like the apocalypse is always just around the corner these days.

The Mayan Calender did not predict the end of the world. It predicted the end of the 5th age of man and the beginning of the 6th and final age of man.

Edit: I may have mixed up Mayan and Hopi. Exiting the 4th and entering the 5th age.

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People in developing countries need to stop having kids, then immigrating to developed countries where most of the pollution comes from. It adds way more problems to pollution, because suddenly those new immigrants are taking more and more resources. If we want to see changes, the entire world needs to cut it's population by half. Europe would have a shrinking population if they didn't have immigration and that's probably a good thing.

Who are you to say people need to stop having kids? People just want a better life for their families. Why don't you move somewhere that's developing? You're taking up resources, no? Eh if you move, one less problem, right ;)

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Who are you to say people need to stop having kids? People just want a better life for their families. Why don't you move somewhere that's developing? You're taking up resources, no? Eh if you move, one less problem, right ;)

Sorry if it came across as racist, wasn't trying to be.

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The balance between man and environment is quite delicate and I agree extinction seems unlikely. ...and even though we are like cockroaches, surviving almost anything that is thrown at us :emot-parrot:

it still could happen....If we loose the bees we are done. The Bee population has been decimated in the last few years. No pollinators no food. Wouldnt take long for the hungry zombie apocalypse

That isn't exactly true. There will still be food though are choices will become a lot more limited.

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That isn't exactly true. There will still be food though are choices will become a lot more limited.

I think it would only take one or 2 seasons with out the bees to decimate all the agriculture world wide. I think our choices would boil down to synthetically cultivated organics but we could never produce enough to feed even a tenth of the world. Things like spirulina, mushrooms and the left over cans of spam would be on the menu :(

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I think the more likely big population die-off would be from anti-biotic immune bacteria like MRSA. It wont kill us all, but it will bring back population growth and life expectancy rates back to levels pre-ww1. bugs are becoming resistant faster than we can make new antibiotics.

Also, biodiversity is incredibly important to our survival. Pollution and swift changes in acidification are probably going to cause a massive die off at the bottom of the food-chain and we are probably all going to have to go vegan and spend a $&!#-ton of time and money manually pollinating our crops as a result.

It's going to be apocalyptic. We have the cheap and plentiful technology now to halt it in it's tracks. Unfortunately, politics, culture, and bad priorities are going to end up killing us.

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If that's how people interpret that, they should apologize to you for being stupid and seeing your comment as such.

I apologize for TR if this post I quoted came off as bigoted toward the mentally handicapped. We must walk on eggshells and vet our every opinion through every person making sure all possible offense has been eliminated before stating something. Only then will we become a truly tolerant society.
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I apologize for TR if this post I quoted came off as bigoted toward the mentally handicapped. We must walk on eggshells and vet our every opinion through every person making sure all possible offense has been eliminated before stating something. Only then will we become a truly tolerant society.

I find this post offensive.

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