Trevor Linden Tsn 1040 (June 25)

[Shadow Assassin]

SCOUT THE WHL!!! FINALLY!!!!!

It's probably focused on Medicine Hat

[Watermelons]

moving down in one of the deepest drafts, kind of scary must say

If it really is a deep draft the moving down would be the smart move. Say we trade our first and maybe something else and get 2 early to mid second round picks. We'd get two guys who are about the same level as someone we could get at 23 if the draft was deep.

[Sean Monahan]

moving down in one of the deepest drafts, kind of scary must say

Possibly the dumbest post I've seen from you in a while, and that bar was set pretty high.

[Swedish elite3]

moving down in one of the deepest drafts, kind of scary must say

Seriously laughed there hahahaha if we move down we could get more picks which could leave is better off since we would get better with the deep quality of prospects

[BMorrison 7]

 

 

In the last 5 drafts Vcr has taken

Virtanen

McCann

Demko

Horvat

Shinkaruk

Cassels

Gaunce

Hutton

Jensen

Grenier

LaBate

Corrado

LOL

our prospects are so overrated aside from horvat and Virtanen, it only looks good on paper because we've never really had a pool before. In reality lots of teams have pools like these. As for drafting around 20th overall every year and just clining on to a 1st round knockout pointless postseason? Yea same old same old

[messier's_elbow]

I'd trade 23 for 34 and 38 from CLB

I'm all for this idea we could get kylington and Dunn?

[SaintPatrick33]

Sounds like Linden was saying:

1. We have approached Juice but he would like a nice contract to waive his NTC

2. There is no way we are moving up in the draft, too expensive

3. There are no good FA's this year, so forget about wasting money

4. We may start to finally draft good ol Canadian kids from the WHL

5. Expect to get a 2nd and 3rd for lack

Not bad, I am all for moving down if we can acquire more pics. This draft is stacked top 14, after that there is a drop-off, but you can still get very serviceable players from there to the 2nd round. I would rather keep our depth going and grab a couple rather than one guy at 23.

[Ghostsof1915]

How about our 23rd for the Flyers 29th, and 61st?

[DeNiro]

Would be sweet to pick up Juulsen or Dunn, Pilon and/or Andersson and Vande Sompel.

That would really stock up our D cupboard.

Just need to get a high 2nd for lack, a medium 2nd for Bieksa, and trade back for a mid 2nd and a 3rd for our first.

[BanTSN]

Ladies and gentlemen.... "AND SAUNTER!"

[Crabcakes]

moving down in one of the deepest drafts, kind of scary must say

Let's do some math.

Normally, a lower 1st pick (from 10th pick to 30th), your success rate is 2 in 3 (67%) of drafting a player.

2nd rounders are 1 in 3 (33%). So in most years, it takes 2 second rounders to have the same success rate as 1 lower first rounder.

Say in this deep draft that the probability of success for a lower first is 3 in 4 (75%)

and a 2nd is 1 in 2 (50%)

So if you can trade your 23rd pick for 2 2nd rounders, you now have a 100% chance of drafting a player (2 x 50%)

Not scary, smart.

[SamJamIam]

our prospects are so overrated aside from horvat and Virtanen, it only looks good on paper because we've never really had a pool before. In reality lots of teams have pools like these. As for drafting around 20th overall every year and just clining on to a 1st round knockout pointless postseason? Yea same old same old

But with all those first overalls the Oilers are gonna be great this year, right?

[BMorrison 7]

But with all those first overalls the Oilers are gonna be great this year, right?

. Unless we have the drafting skill of the detroit red wings we probably won't be a huge playoff threat for a long time. Just as long as they sell tickets aquillini's happy

I just wish retooling was a bigger priority and playoffs weren't. not 50/50. More like 70\30

[hookshott]

Really, I just do not understand why everybody....especially Benning...is so fixated on getting a 2nd round pick. We have already made our 2nd round selection...and his name is Sven Baertschi. Pretty good choice I think. Now, we think we should be entitled to another one....so we trade a proven goaltender...to a team....WHO GIVES UP THEIR SECOND ROUND CHOICE....and then we expect we are better off when we have to guess about a player's potential at the NHL level! Huh???????????

[DrChill]

Let's do some math.

Normally, a lower 1st pick (from 10th pick to 30th), your success rate is 2 in 3 (67%) of drafting a player.

2nd rounders are 1 in 3 (33%). So in most years, it takes 2 second rounders to have the same success rate as 1 lower first rounder.

Say in this deep draft that the probability of success for a lower first is 3 in 4 (75%)

and a 2nd is 1 in 2 (50%)

So if you can trade your 23rd pick for 2 2nd rounders, you now have a 100% chance of drafting a player (2 x 50%)

Not scary, smart.

you realize 2 50% don't equal 100% right?????

[tyhee]

Let's do some math.

Normally, a lower 1st pick (from 10th pick to 30th), your success rate is 2 in 3 (67%) of drafting a player.

2nd rounders are 1 in 3 (33%). So in most years, it takes 2 second rounders to have the same success rate as 1 lower first rounder.

Say in this deep draft that the probability of success for a lower first is 3 in 4 (75%)

and a 2nd is 1 in 2 (50%)

So if you can trade your 23rd pick for 2 2nd rounders, you now have a 100% chance of drafting a player (2 x 50%)

Not scary, smart.

Actually, basic probability says the chances stay at 75% in your scenario and your assumptions about probability of getting a player. The gain comes from the chance of getting 2 players.

It isn't correct to multiply 2 x 50% and say the chances of getting a player with two picks is 100%. That's pretty clearly an absurd result, since there are lots of chances of getting two busts in the 2nd round.

The chances of not getting a player are .5 x .5 =.25. That leaves the chances of getting a player at 1-.25=.75 (75%)

But getting the 2nd pick gives an additional chance not available with just one higher pick-the chance of getting players with both picks. The chance of that, given your assumptions of probability of getting a player, is .5 x .5 =.25 (25%.)

So given those assumptions of the probability of getting a player, the odds are still better trading down for two 2nd rounders.

There have been numerous studies on the value of a draft pick. One study, found at http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/6/21/2235503/nhl-draft-value-pick-chart(select NHL Value Pick Chart) assigns a value to each pick. The #23 pick is assigned a value of 315. #40 + # 50, for instance, bring a combined value of 393. Equally obviously, if the team scouts consider the value of picks is closer this year than some other years, there is more value to trading down.

[SaintPatrick33]

A good guy to ask on the trading down philosophy is Bill Belicheck. I think Benning should make a trade with Phx, Edm, Buffalo, Carolina for their first round pick next year LOL

[MoneypuckOverlord]

wait, what??

is he not expecting to sign UFA's, our our pending UFA's??? I'm preparing my Ehrhoff Jersey darnit

[IamHomer]

you realize 2 50% don't equal 100% right?????

Edit opps, misread what you said.

[Guest]

our prospects are so overrated aside from horvat and Virtanen, it only looks good on paper because we've never really had a pool before. In reality lots of teams have pools like these. As for drafting around 20th overall every year and just clining on to a 1st round knockout pointless postseason? Yea same old same old

Demko gets very positive mentions from every scouting report I've ever read. He was a surprise faller by 5-8 places and we should be stoked we have him.