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4 hours ago, lmm said:

 

 

maybe yes,maybe no

 

you are assuming that he recovers fully from every injury

Look at Sutter, pretty much an iron man and second line center caught behind two first liners in Pittsburg, until he got to Vancouver, got injured and coasted down hill

lots of players suffer from injuries, Sutter is a lot older than Boeser.  Boeser started his career here, he will definitely be here for awhile.

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7 hours ago, LowerMainLander18 said:

Thanks for sharing those names.

Those are minuscule portion of player pool tho.

 

And I wouldnt say a lot of players peak at 25. 

Maybe 27~28. 

 

If he has 2 years to peak, then why would we trade him before his peak? 

Wouldnt we get much better return when he's at his peak?

 

um Gretzky peaked at 25, won his last cup at 27.

why would another GM givetop dollar for a guy who has peaked?

 

but since you don't like the names I am throwing out there, riddle me this, how many players can you name that have sustained 12 + game injuries in each of their first 3 seasons and have gone on to long productive careers?

I named 10, can you?

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5 hours ago, bree2 said:

lots of players suffer from injuries, Sutter is a lot older than Boeser.  Boeser started his career here, he will definitely be here for awhile.

is that 4 unrelated comments?

yes, a lot of players suffer injuries. does it affect their productivity? Skating? Shot?

yes, Sutter is older than Boeser. he is also older than Tanev, Roussell, Ferland and Motte and he has played at least 200 more games than all of them. Loui Ericksson was productive until he played as many games as Sutter has played.

yes, Boeser started his career here

yes, Boeser will be here a while, but what is a while? and what make it definitive? It is 12:34 AM, it will definitely be dark for a while

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6 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

The D but we gotta be in a position to trade for a D. Right now Pod/Hogs haven't proved that Boeser is expendable. We need them too. Also we're in a position to bring up a few young D Tryamkin/Rafferty/Brisebois  and can sign Tanev for free. Also have to consider that there is an expansion draft next year. We could make a deal with Seattle to take Tanev in order to keep both goalies. I'd wait till after the expansion to consider such a move too.

 

Also there are examples of it not working out like Hall for Larsson. Hall is still worth more than what EDM got. Hall is worth a Serg more than Drouin was and you could say Hall = Johansen yet they ended up with the worst D of the bunch in Larsson. Trading for a D isn't something to rush

I agree Larsson is the worst d of that bunch, but Hall has had one great year and only made the playoffs that one year.

Edmonton made the second round with Larsson and he wassecond in +/- behind McD that year

Edmonton is in a playoff spot now and NJ is rebuilding and firing coaches and managers

I would trade Larsson for Brock in a heatbeat

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2 hours ago, lmm said:

I agree Larsson is the worst d of that bunch, but Hall has had one great year and only made the playoffs that one year.

Edmonton made the second round with Larsson and he wassecond in +/- behind McD that year

Edmonton is in a playoff spot now and NJ is rebuilding and firing coaches and managers

I would trade Larsson for Brock in a heatbeat

My main point was on waiting till he is expendable. I am all for moving him at the right time and the right price. Waiting till after the expansion and when Hog/Pod prove that they make Boeser expendable. 

 

Also I wouldn't trade Larsson for Boeser. His last 2 seasons haven't been as good as his first 2 with EDM. Both his minutes and stats have gone down despite being on a better EDM team this year. Rather go after a Risto who'd probably excel not having to play 24+ minutes a night on a $&!# team like he has been required to the last 4-5 seasons. He has also had a better year this season when he's now playing just under 23 minutes(go figure) a game and with Dahlin taking some of the responsibility on another pairing. Waiting till after the expansion would allow us to see if he would agree to a signing after a trade.

 

People want Parayko but I doubt he's available and STL would want to dump Allen and Bozak to retain Pietrangelo. They also have to let Bouwmeester go which solidifies them keeping Parayko and losing Pietrangelo would guarantee that. They need both.

 

Risto's really the only guy available right now. 

 

Rather go hard on Pietrangelo if we get a couple compliance buyouts and if he wants to comes here. That's Eriksson and Myers easy. It's a pipe dream though.

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6 hours ago, lmm said:

um Gretzky peaked at 25, won his last cup at 27.

why would another GM givetop dollar for a guy who has peaked?

 

but since you don't like the names I am throwing out there, riddle me this, how many players can you name that have sustained 12 + game injuries in each of their first 3 seasons and have gone on to long productive careers?

I named 10, can you?

I don't think you are getting my point.

The fact that there are 10 players that you could name that peaked before 23 does not mean rest of the hundreds of thousands of players in those eras of the league peaks at 23 on average.

 

Statistically, that's a very very very very very low chance. 

 

If you insist that you know he already peaked at 23, I don't buy that. 

If you insist he will peak in 2 yrs at 25, I don't buy that but then again, if you know he has 2 more yrs to peak, why trade him now for that much lower value... Doesn't make much sense to me.

 

I cant name any players on top of my head right now that had injuries in their first 2 years but still went on to have decent careers. 

 

 

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13 hours ago, lmm said:

Blight

Ververgeart

Hodgson

Faloon

Bure

Linden had 1 season over 70 pts after 23

Setoguchi

Samsonov

L Schenn

Phaneuf

 

A lot of guys actually peak at 25, so what does that mean for Boeser if he has 2 years then starts to decline?

Also my question was which player peaks at their 3rd season in the NHL?

And your list doesn't really correlate to that question. 

 

I would cross off Linden as he had actually not so good numbers in this first 3 seasons.

Sergei Samsonov, again, peaked after his 4th season.

I don't think Luke Schenn ever really peaked as an NHLer. 

Devin Setoguchi had below average first 2 seasons and had a brief success in his 3rd season and resumed to being below average after that thru rest of his career. I think this is a peculiar case. 

Bure's number did go down due to injury on his 4th season. But he still had 51 goals in his 7th year and 58 and 59 in his 9th and 10th season .... so yeah.

By Hodgson, if you mean Cody Hodgson, I don't think he did have a peak in his NHL career. 

And who is Ververgeart?

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

My main point was on waiting till he is expendable. I am all for moving him at the right time and the right price. Waiting till after the expansion and when Hog/Pod prove that they make Boeser expendable. 

Still think Virtanen is odd man out there unfortunately (as I'd love to keep them all).

 

We don't have a Boeser replacement in our prospect pool. We might however have a Virtanen replacement in Podkolzin. 

 

And while I'm not entirely opposed to making that move now/soon (should the right deal come along), I tend to agree that's likely a move that happens after Podkolzin, Hoglander Lind etc start putting more upward pressure on the NHL lineup.

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3 hours ago, LowerMainLander18 said:

Also my question was which player peaks at their 3rd season in the NHL?

And your list doesn't really correlate to that question. 

 

I would cross off Linden as he had actually not so good numbers in this first 3 seasons.

Sergei Samsonov, again, peaked after his 4th season.

I don't think Luke Schenn ever really peaked as an NHLer. 

Devin Setoguchi had below average first 2 seasons and had a brief success in his 3rd season and resumed to being below average after that thru rest of his career. I think this is a peculiar case. 

Bure's number did go down due to injury on his 4th season. But he still had 51 goals in his 7th year and 58 and 59 in his 9th and 10th season .... so yeah.

By Hodgson, if you mean Cody Hodgson, I don't think he did have a peak in his NHL career. 

And who is Ververgeart?

 

 

 

Dennis Ververgaert, I spelled his name wrong, its ae. former Canuck first rounder.

 

I get the feeling that you think I am saying ALL players peak by 25, but Joel ward just retired and he did not play a full season until he was 27, he peaked at 33.

there are anomalies like Howe and Chara and there are guys who peak in junior like most Canuck draft picks (historically, J/K)including Shinkaruk.

 

But I feel what you are saying is that all players have a symetrical growth curve that peaks at 27-28 which is equally wrong.

Back to Brock, he has sustained wrist and back injuries that appear from where I am sitting, (I am not a doctor or close to the team) to have limited his ability

maybe he has healed with all this time off, we can hope that is the case, but I would not bet on it.

 

Personally I think I differ from many fans because I do not fall in love with all the players and expect them all to grow to greatness. 

I think Petey and Quinn will, I hope Bo and Virtanen will and I feel nothing for the likes of Pods and Hogs until they come over and perform in the NHL. But that is just me.

 

2 things about Brock

I remember the game when Brock got hurt and immediately thought that his career might be over, so good for him to make a career after that injury.

But I also remember an interview with Doug McLean about interviewing Phil Kessel at the combine, Doug said," I just didn't get the feeling that I NEEDED him"

I have always had that feeling for Brock. Kessel puts up numbers when he is surrounded by the likes of Sid and Geno, but didn't take Toronto or Arizona where they wanted to go. Bure made the 1st round of the playoffs once after he left Vancouver. He was +35 at 22 and had 31 playoff points and knocked out Shane Churla at 23. He never get near those feats again.

 

When I look at players I want on this team, I want players like Justin Williams or Claude Lemeiux, not Phil Kessel. I understand the Kessel comparison is my own personal bias.

I think JT Miller is the closest thing to Justin Williams on our current roster, but I also see that drive in Pettersson and hope that continues in him past his 23rd and 25th birthdays.

 

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47 minutes ago, lmm said:

Dennis Ververgaert, I spelled his name wrong, its ae. former Canuck first rounder.

 

I get the feeling that you think I am saying ALL players peak by 25, but Joel ward just retired and he did not play a full season until he was 27, he peaked at 33.

there are anomalies like Howe and Chara and there are guys who peak in junior like most Canuck draft picks (historically, J/K)including Shinkaruk.

 

But I feel what you are saying is that all players have a symetrical growth curve that peaks at 27-28 which is equally wrong.

Back to Brock, he has sustained wrist and back injuries that appear from where I am sitting, (I am not a doctor or close to the team) to have limited his ability

maybe he has healed with all this time off, we can hope that is the case, but I would not bet on it.

 

Personally I think I differ from many fans because I do not fall in love with all the players and expect them all to grow to greatness. 

I think Petey and Quinn will, I hope Bo and Virtanen will and I feel nothing for the likes of Pods and Hogs until they come over and perform in the NHL. But that is just me.

 

2 things about Brock

I remember the game when Brock got hurt and immediately thought that his career might be over, so good for him to make a career after that injury.

But I also remember an interview with Doug McLean about interviewing Phil Kessel at the combine, Doug said," I just didn't get the feeling that I NEEDED him"

I have always had that feeling for Brock. Kessel puts up numbers when he is surrounded by the likes of Sid and Geno, but didn't take Toronto or Arizona where they wanted to go. Bure made the 1st round of the playoffs once after he left Vancouver. He was +35 at 22 and had 31 playoff points and knocked out Shane Churla at 23. He never get near those feats again.

 

When I look at players I want on this team, I want players like Justin Williams or Claude Lemeiux, not Phil Kessel. I understand the Kessel comparison is my own personal bias.

I think JT Miller is the closest thing to Justin Williams on our current roster, but I also see that drive in Pettersson and hope that continues in him past his 23rd and 25th birthdays.

 

No, I do appreciate your ideas. And I don't twist things.

I DO think all players are different. 

And that Boeser's best season has not happened. Not even close.

 

If he had 3 healthy, full seasons and put up those numbers, I wouldnt feel as bad about trading him right now.

But he did not. And he had 2 awful summer trainings due to injuries. And summer training at his age is so important in this league nowadays.

That is why I say trading him is a big mistake and that he is, I think, far from his peak.

 

You obviously took time to do some research to respond and I appreciate that. 

 

I like the Justin Williams analogy. 

But Boeser is not a similar player to Phil Kessel.

Only similar thing is that they are both snipers with heavy wrist shot.

 

Boeser is a character player that's why I think he's not close to reaching his best days yet. 

He will get better as our stock piled prospects enter the league as key pieces. 

 

It's a rare find to have a Right handed sniper on the team. I think we should be extremely careful how to deal with him. 

Edited by LowerMainLander18
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9 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

My main point was on waiting till he is expendable. I am all for moving him at the right time and the right price. Waiting till after the expansion and when Hog/Pod prove that they make Boeser expendable. 

 

Also I wouldn't trade Larsson for Boeser. His last 2 seasons haven't been as good as his first 2 with EDM. Both his minutes and stats have gone down despite being on a better EDM team this year. Rather go after a Risto who'd probably excel not having to play 24+ minutes a night on a $&!# team like he has been required to the last 4-5 seasons. He has also had a better year this season when he's now playing just under 23 minutes(go figure) a game and with Dahlin taking some of the responsibility on another pairing. Waiting till after the expansion would allow us to see if he would agree to a signing after a trade.

 

People want Parayko but I doubt he's available and STL would want to dump Allen and Bozak to retain Pietrangelo. They also have to let Bouwmeester go which solidifies them keeping Parayko and losing Pietrangelo would guarantee that. They need both.

 

Risto's really the only guy available right now. 

 

Rather go hard on Pietrangelo if we get a couple compliance buyouts and if he wants to comes here. That's Eriksson and Myers easy. It's a pipe dream though.

I imagine by now you have realized that I don't value Brock as highly as some on this board.

Its not that I don't like him, I think he is a nice guy, and he is going through a troublesome time, but many on here see him as the steal of the 2015 draft, while I see him as a mid-first  playing at about his draft position.

I'd take that Risto deal, but we would probably have to add, maybe Loui Ericksson or Raymond, Ballard and a 2nd.

I remember someone suggesting  Parayko for Hutton just over a year ago, too bad that deal didn't go, probably would have had to add Loui and Raymond for that one.

 

But I digress, I look at Brock fetching a D-man of similar age and draft position,so I am looking at Zakub Zboril or Jacob Larsson, Gabe Carlsson or maybe on a good day Tom Chabot. Some of those deals we might get the add. Now in honesty I have not seen any except Chabot play and don't know if they have dropped significantly, but that is the return I think is realistic. Maybe Chychrun would be a home run.

With Quinn on the team, and Rathbone possibly our next prospect, I am only looking at large and hopefully physical defensemen.

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On 4/27/2020 at 8:51 AM, aGENT said:

Still think Virtanen is odd man out there unfortunately (as I'd love to keep them all).

 

We don't have a Boeser replacement in our prospect pool. We might however have a Virtanen replacement in Podkolzin. 

 

And while I'm not entirely opposed to making that move now/soon (should the right deal come along), I tend to agree that's likely a move that happens after Podkolzin, Hoglander Lind etc start putting more upward pressure on the NHL lineup.

Could be. Pearson could be as well if we want to go younger and cheaper. Not sure if the Canucks will keep Pod at RW though. Never kept Jake at LW and we have more of a need at LW. Pod is a different type of player though having the 200ft game already so he could be an exception.

 

Also yeah if we got a good deal, say BUF was desperate and wanted Boeser for RIsto+ yeah make a deal like that. We are fortunate to have the patience to wait for a good deal.

 

Boeser nabs us more of a return IMO and would decrease the cap considering by the time we are ready to move out a forward for a D Boeser will be close to needing a new contract. Would probably be 7M+ but hard to say if cap will be an issue a year after Hughes and Petey are re-sign, too early to tell.

 

Lots of variables involved however. Virtanen could outperform Boeser, Pod/Hog might need more seasoning than expected, Could or could not get the compliance buyouts, Cap might not go up much the next few years, Seattle might take a forward, Could get extremely lucky and land a top FA defenseman, etc. Definitely interesting to keep an eye on and we're only gonna have good problems at FWD moving forward.

 

Hopefully some of Dmen we have(OJ/Woo/Rafferty/Brisebois/Tryamkin) prove that they can play in the meantime. Would mean the world especially if OJ and Tryamkin panned out into top 4 D within the next 2-3 years.

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On 4/27/2020 at 12:23 PM, lmm said:

I imagine by now you have realized that I don't value Brock as highly as some on this board.

Its not that I don't like him, I think he is a nice guy, and he is going through a troublesome time, but many on here see him as the steal of the 2015 draft, while I see him as a mid-first  playing at about his draft position.

I'd take that Risto deal, but we would probably have to add, maybe Loui Ericksson or Raymond, Ballard and a 2nd.

I remember someone suggesting  Parayko for Hutton just over a year ago, too bad that deal didn't go, probably would have had to add Loui and Raymond for that one.

 

But I digress, I look at Brock fetching a D-man of similar age and draft position,so I am looking at Zakub Zboril or Jacob Larsson, Gabe Carlsson or maybe on a good day Tom Chabot. Some of those deals we might get the add. Now in honesty I have not seen any except Chabot play and don't know if they have dropped significantly, but that is the return I think is realistic. Maybe Chychrun would be a home run.

With Quinn on the team, and Rathbone possibly our next prospect, I am only looking at large and hopefully physical defensemen.

We probably should value Boeser as a top RW since that's what the numbers say and that's gonna get us a big return. Zboril and Carlsson have barely stepped into the league yet. Larrson doesn't have half of Boeser's value, he's playing in a top 6 role. No offense but those wouldn't be the brightest moves to make.

 

Chabot is probably one of the highest valued D in the league right now. No way anyone's getting him. I could see him winning a Norris or two the way he's trending and if Ottawa can turn it around, he finished 18th in Norris voting last year. I suggest you do watch him in order to see why Ottawa plays him 26 minutes a game and sometimes 30 minutes a night. He's pretty damn good. I doubt the Yotes want to trade Chychurn either. He's gonna be their cornerstone moving forward and they haven't had the greatest of luck when moving out younger players(Domi, Duclair, Strome). On top of that he's probably their next captain after OEL.

 

Market's quite on Dman right now. That's why I only mentioned Risto being the only one really available that we could trade Boeser for evenly.

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14 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

We probably should value Boeser as a top RW since that's what the numbers say and that's gonna get us a big return. Zboril and Carlsson have barely stepped into the league yet. Larrson doesn't have half of Boeser's value, he's playing in a top 6 role. No offense but those wouldn't be the brightest moves to make.

 

Chabot is probably one of the highest valued D in the league right now. No way anyone's getting him. I could see him winning a Norris or two the way he's trending and if Ottawa can turn it around, he finished 18th in Norris voting last year. I suggest you do watch him in order to see why Ottawa plays him 26 minutes a game and sometimes 30 minutes a night. He's pretty damn good. I doubt the Yotes want to trade Chychurn either. He's gonna be their cornerstone moving forward and they haven't had the greatest of luck when moving out younger players(Domi, Duclair, Strome). On top of that he's probably their next captain after OEL.

 

Market's quite on Dman right now. That's why I only mentioned Risto being the only one really available that we could trade Boeser for evenly.

I realize that Chabot and Chychrun is shooting high, but it is because they are on teams that make bad trades that I thought it worth a flyer.

Not all GMs learn their lesson.

In your response to Agent above you talk about patience, Trading Brock for a younger defenceman is a "patient" move.

Are you grading the other d I mentioned on anything other than NHL stats? I look on HockeyDB, so I do not have first hand knowledge or an inside scoop. What  are you using?

If we go back to Sergachev and Jones, Jones had 2.5 years in the league, Johannson 4.5 years

Serg had 4 games and Drouin had parts of 3 years including a 53 point season.

THose are moves that are working out for the patient teams. 

I also think Montreal was hoping for the |"Beliveau effect" hoping that they were trading for the next Vinny Lecavlier by bringing the French guy home.

I hear that sentiment on this board often, last year we brought in Myers and Benn hoping home cooking would produce more than what we paid for.

many fans are tired of both. Was it you that suggested Myers is a compiance buyout  candidate?

 

Round about 2011-12 Mike Gillis floated the idea of the "Boston Model" and everyone including Gillis meant "Big, mean, bully your way to the cup"

But actually the Boston Model is the same model Sam Pollock used in the late 60s and 70s  to win 9 cups in 13 years.

Maybe Zboril isn't the answer, but Boston did pretty good with Seguin, Hamilton, Debrusk + Carlo (in one draft) and Kessel, Lucic + Marchand (in one draft)  Pastrenak, Donato, Hienen + Bjork (one draft),the funny thing about those last 7, one is the draft before Benning arrived and the other is the draft after he left.

Traded for the pick that picked Ray Borque

But the point is, they trade guys early and often and often for 1st round picks , not all who turn out, but enough do to keep them at or near the top of the league

 

By contrast the Vancouver model is to fall in love with every player (not names Jarod McCann) and wait and wait for him to become the star we think we drafted

 

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2 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

Could be. Pearson could be as well if we want to go younger and cheaper. Not sure if the Canucks will keep Pod at RW though. Never kept Jake at LW and we have more of a need at LW. Pod is a different type of player though having the 200ft game already so he could be an exception.

I must have missed when Jake was a LW...? Is Podkolzin that different or is he already doing a lot of what we hoped to get from Jake (and in fairness, Jake has finally started to show himself)?

 

As for Pearson, yup different wings and I wouldn't be surprised to see us try to resign him either if we can keep the term and cap low'ish.

 

I see the natural progression of leaving Boeser at 1 RW, Toffoli at 2RW, Virtanen at 3RW until Podkolzin arrives. When he does, he can slot on there (or 4RW if not quite as ready) and allow MacEwan/Lind etc to fill in the blanks. When Podkolzin is ready to take over at 2RW, you move Toffoli for a tidy return nearing his contract end (likely futures) and bump everyone up.

 

Quote

 

Also yeah if we got a good deal, say BUF was desperate and wanted Boeser for RIsto+ yeah make a deal like that. We are fortunate to have the patience to wait for a good deal.

Thank you for not saying Dumba :lol: I actually wonder if we could get something like a Byram + deal for Boeser (or similar prospect + from another team) if we were to move him (which again I see us keeping him personally).

 

Quote

Lots of variables involved however. Virtanen could outperform Boeser, 

Yup there are. That's why Jimmy makes the big bucks ;)

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