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20 minutes ago, tyhee said:

Firstly, D-Money, thanks for that work.

 

I decided to continue on from your last paragraph which speaks of top pairing d-men. I looked through every NHL team and arbitrarily defined a top pairing d-man as one of the top two in average minutes per game on his team. It isn't perfect but it doesn't depend on any subjective judgments. There were probably better methods available to pick the top d-men and this results in some players (Hunwick, Stone for example) that few would consider legitimate top pairing d-men on decent teams, but I placed a fair value on being completely objective and on going by what the coaches thought of their players when assigning ice time.

 

The results were:

 

Montreal: Subban (2nd rd) Markov (6th rd)

Boston: Chara (3rd rd, VFA) Krug (undrafted FA)

Detroit: Kronwall (1st rd) DeKeyser (undrafted FA)

(Green is just behind DeKeyser in ave TOI at present)

Florida: B Campbell (6th rd, trade) Ekblad (1st rd #1 overall)

Ottawa: Karlsson (1st rd) Methot (6th rd, trade)

Tampa: Hedman (1st rd #2) Stralman (7th rd, VFA)

Buffalo: Ristolainen (1st rd) Bogosian (1st rd, trade)

Toronto: Hunwick (7th rd, VFA) Phaneuf (1st rd, trade)

(Morgan Reilly, a 1st round pick, is a close 3rd in ave TOI on the Leafs)

 

Wash Carlson (1st rd) Niskanen (1st round)

NYI Hamonic (2nd rd) Leddy (1st rd, obtained in trade)

NYR McDonagh (1st rd) Klein (2nd rd, obtained in trade)

(at this moment Girardi, an undrafted FA, is 1 second behind Klein in ave TOI for NYR)

NJ Greene (undrafted FA) Larsson (1st rd)

Phi del Zotto (1st rd) Streit (9th rd, obtained in trade)

Pit Letang (3rd rd) Daley (2nd rd, obtained in trade)

Carolina Faulk (2nd rd) Hainsey (1st rd)

CBJ Johnson (1st rd) Savard (4th rd)

 

Dallas Klingberg (5th rd) Goligoski (2nd rd)

St L Pietrangelo (1st rd) Bouwmeester (1st rd-#3 overall, obtained in trade)

Chi Keith (2nd rd) Seabrook (1st rd)

Nash Josi (2nd rd) Weber (2nd rd)

Minn Suter (1st rd, FA) Spurgeon (6th rd not signed, signed as rookie FA)

Col Beauchemin (3rd rd, FA) Johnson (1st rd, trade)

(Tyson Barrie, a 3rd rounder, is a close 3rd in ave TOI for Colorado)

Wpg Byfuglien (8th rd, trade) Myers (1st rd, trade)

 

LA Doughty (1st rd #2) Muzzin (5th rounder not signed, rookie FA)

SJ Burns (1st rd, trade) Vlasic (2nd rd)

Vanc Edler (3rd rd) Tanev (undrafted FA)

Phoenix Ekman-Larsson (1st rd) Stone (3rd rd)

Calg Brodie (4th rd) Giordano (undrafted FA)

Edm Klefbom (1st rd) Sekera (3rd rd, signed as FA)

Ana Fowler (1st rd) Bieksa (??) (5th rd, trade)

(to much complaining on the Ducks forum on hfboards, Bieksa narrowly leads Hampus Lindholm in average TOI. Lindholm was a 1st rd pick)

 

Totals: 18 of 60 were drafted by their present teams in the 1st round

8 of 60 were drafted by their present teams in the 2nd round

3 of 60 were drafted by their present teams in the 3rd round

4 of 60 were drafted by their present teams lower than the 3rd round

7 of 60 came to their present teams as undrafted or rookie free agents, 5 of whom were never drafted and 2 of whom were low round picks who did not sign with the team drafting them

14 of 60 came to their present teams via trade

6 of 60 came to their present teams as veteran free agents

 

Draft placings by round:

 

1-26

2-10

3-6

4-2

5-3

6-4

7-2

8-1

9-1

not drafted-5

 

Conclusions: None of this will be surprising or profound.

-Almost half of all top pairing defencemen are drafted in the 1st round and the number available to be drafted later generally decreases as the rounds go by, especially after the 3rd round, but 30% of the players in the top two on their teams in average ice time were either drafted later than the 3rd round or went undrafted and were signed as undrafted free agents.

-Two-thirds of all top pairing defencemen were either drafted by their present teams or signed by them as rookie free agents.

-10% of top pairing defencemen came to their present teams as veteran free agents and about 23% were obtained by trade.

Taking into account that (a) most of the top 2 d-men on each team are still with the organization they broke in with, and (b) obtaining a player by the draft is certainly cheaper than by trade or getting a veteran free agent it seems fairly clear that the best way to acquire top defencemen, just like it is the best place to acquire top forwards, is through the draft.  That doesn't mean, though, that top d-men can't be acquired via trade or free agency, just that it isn't common and (my speculation) that will be because general managers want to keep those players and the cost to acquire them via trade or free agency will be high.

That's a hell of a lot of work to show that the higher we draft the better chances we have of getting Cup core guys.

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17 hours ago, Gyllenhaal said:

The only money he would get is from his signing bonus. Until he plays 10 games in the AHL/NHL his contract slides, meaning he doesn't get his salary and he doesn't count towards our cap.

They don't get paid for the first 9 games when they play them?

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3 hours ago, Hutton Wink said:

They don't get paid for the first 9 games when they play them?

oh, my bad. He does. I was thinking about when their entry-level contract activates for some reason.

So he only gets paid if he's playing in the NHL or AHL.

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13 hours ago, D-Money said:

That is true. Of the top-25 scoring forwards in the league, nearly half were top-5 picks (Kane, Seguin, Hall, D. Sedin, Wheeler, Ryan, Backstrom, H. Sedin, Draisatl, Ovechkin, Malkin, MacKinnon), and most of the remainder were still first rounders. Very few currently elite forwards were late round steals and/or free agents.

Whereas among the top-20 scoring D-men, it's a much different story. Here is where they were drafted:
15th overall, 5th round, 20th, 37th, 27th, 38th, 49th, 8th, 7th, 43rd, 3rd round, 14th, 8th round, 14th, 6th, 4th round, 3rd round, 2nd, 6th round, and 54th

However, as you can see above, nearly half of the top scoring D-men were still 1st rounders. 3/4 of them were picked in the first two rounds. And of the 5 guys above who were found in the 3rd round and beyond, only two are under 30 (Klingberg and Barrie), indicating that teams are getting better at evaluating draft eligible D-men. Also of note, none of them were undrafted free agents.

The main thing the Canucks desperately need is a top-pairing defenseman...ideally, two of them. And, in this day and age, it is extremely rare to find a top pairing D-man 1) by trade, 2) in free agency, or 3) beyond the 2nd round of the draft. And we haven't used a first or second rounder on a D-man since 2008.

Good work.

I think Benning wanted a second rounder really bad last draft because there were some nice Dmen there. I know he said he would have picked Brisebois with a second but I wonder how high up in the second round they had him ranked.

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11 hours ago, tyhee said:

Firstly, D-Money, thanks for that work.

 

I decided to continue on from your last paragraph which speaks of top pairing d-men. I looked through every NHL team and arbitrarily defined a top pairing d-man as one of the top two in average minutes per game on his team. It isn't perfect but it doesn't depend on any subjective judgments. There were probably better methods available to pick the top d-men and this results in some players (Hunwick, Stone for example) that few would consider legitimate top pairing d-men on decent teams, but I placed a fair value on being completely objective and on going by what the coaches thought of their players when assigning ice time.

 

The results were:

 

Montreal: Subban (2nd rd) Markov (6th rd)

Boston: Chara (3rd rd, VFA) Krug (undrafted FA)

Detroit: Kronwall (1st rd) DeKeyser (undrafted FA)

(Green is just behind DeKeyser in ave TOI at present)

Florida: B Campbell (6th rd, trade) Ekblad (1st rd #1 overall)

Ottawa: Karlsson (1st rd) Methot (6th rd, trade)

Tampa: Hedman (1st rd #2) Stralman (7th rd, VFA)

Buffalo: Ristolainen (1st rd) Bogosian (1st rd, trade)

Toronto: Hunwick (7th rd, VFA) Phaneuf (1st rd, trade)

(Morgan Reilly, a 1st round pick, is a close 3rd in ave TOI on the Leafs)

 

Wash Carlson (1st rd) Niskanen (1st round)

NYI Hamonic (2nd rd) Leddy (1st rd, obtained in trade)

NYR McDonagh (1st rd) Klein (2nd rd, obtained in trade)

(at this moment Girardi, an undrafted FA, is 1 second behind Klein in ave TOI for NYR)

NJ Greene (undrafted FA) Larsson (1st rd)

Phi del Zotto (1st rd) Streit (9th rd, obtained in trade)

Pit Letang (3rd rd) Daley (2nd rd, obtained in trade)

Carolina Faulk (2nd rd) Hainsey (1st rd)

CBJ Johnson (1st rd) Savard (4th rd)

 

Dallas Klingberg (5th rd) Goligoski (2nd rd)

St L Pietrangelo (1st rd) Bouwmeester (1st rd-#3 overall, obtained in trade)

Chi Keith (2nd rd) Seabrook (1st rd)

Nash Josi (2nd rd) Weber (2nd rd)

Minn Suter (1st rd, FA) Spurgeon (6th rd not signed, signed as rookie FA)

Col Beauchemin (3rd rd, FA) Johnson (1st rd, trade)

(Tyson Barrie, a 3rd rounder, is a close 3rd in ave TOI for Colorado)

Wpg Byfuglien (8th rd, trade) Myers (1st rd, trade)

 

LA Doughty (1st rd #2) Muzzin (5th rounder not signed, rookie FA)

SJ Burns (1st rd, trade) Vlasic (2nd rd)

Vanc Edler (3rd rd) Tanev (undrafted FA)

Phoenix Ekman-Larsson (1st rd) Stone (3rd rd)

Calg Brodie (4th rd) Giordano (undrafted FA)

Edm Klefbom (1st rd) Sekera (3rd rd, signed as FA)

Ana Fowler (1st rd) Bieksa (??) (5th rd, trade)

(to much complaining on the Ducks forum on hfboards, Bieksa narrowly leads Hampus Lindholm in average TOI. Lindholm was a 1st rd pick)

 

Totals: 18 of 60 were drafted by their present teams in the 1st round

8 of 60 were drafted by their present teams in the 2nd round

3 of 60 were drafted by their present teams in the 3rd round

4 of 60 were drafted by their present teams lower than the 3rd round

7 of 60 came to their present teams as undrafted or rookie free agents, 5 of whom were never drafted and 2 of whom were low round picks who did not sign with the team drafting them

14 of 60 came to their present teams via trade

6 of 60 came to their present teams as veteran free agents

 

Draft placings by round:

 

1-26

2-10

3-6

4-2

5-3

6-4

7-2

8-1

9-1

not drafted-5

 

Conclusions: None of this will be surprising or profound.

-Almost half of all top pairing defencemen are drafted in the 1st round and the number available to be drafted later generally decreases as the rounds go by, especially after the 3rd round, but 30% of the players in the top two on their teams in average ice time were either drafted later than the 3rd round or went undrafted and were signed as undrafted free agents.

-Two-thirds of all top pairing defencemen were either drafted by their present teams or signed by them as rookie free agents.

-10% of top pairing defencemen came to their present teams as veteran free agents and about 23% were obtained by trade.

Taking into account that (a) most of the top 2 d-men on each team are still with the organization they broke in with, and (b) obtaining a player by the draft is certainly cheaper than by trade or getting a veteran free agent it seems fairly clear that the best way to acquire top defencemen, just like it is the best place to acquire top forwards, is through the draft.  That doesn't mean, though, that top d-men can't be acquired via trade or free agency, just that it isn't common and (my speculation) that will be because general managers want to keep those players and the cost to acquire them via trade or free agency will be high.

Brilliant work there, and that just re-iterates my point that we need to pay more attention to defence with these first round picks. We've had this ongoing problem of no defence or defensive prospects, in particular in the last two seasons, and with our 3 1st rounders we selected two wingers and a center on a team stacked at wing. Boeser and Virtanen will be great players, but we already have some good wingers. We don't have defence, and that's the price you have to be willing to pay to stock the cupboards.

Another option is to trade for a young, unproven defenceman but that'll essentially be equivalent to a first rounder if not more because they're years into their development. Good luck getting an NHL proven guy for any less than what Hamilton commanded. Instead of blowing a 1st and two 2nds, lets just take our heads out and start drafting defencemen. Last draft we had a LOT of options for defencemen and we go for another winger. Time to ditch the BPA and go for the best available defenceman.

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3 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

Brilliant work there, and that just re-iterates my point that we need to pay more attention to defence with these first round picks. We've had this ongoing problem of no defence or defensive prospects, in particular in the last two seasons, and with our 3 1st rounders we selected two wingers and a center on a team stacked at wing. Boeser and Virtanen will be great players, but we already have some good wingers. We don't have defence, and that's the price you have to be willing to pay to stock the cupboards.

Another option is to trade for a young, unproven defenceman but that'll essentially be equivalent to a first rounder if not more because they're years into their development. Good luck getting an NHL proven guy for any less than what Hamilton commanded. Instead of blowing a 1st and two 2nds, lets just take our heads out and start drafting defencemen. Last draft we had a LOT of options for defencemen and we go for another winger. Time to ditch the BPA and go for the best available defenceman.

All the defenceman rated to go around our pick were taken. The two Sweds were slatted to go 5-8 spots after we picked and everyone else in the second round. There weren't a lot of options that made sense

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16 hours ago, tyhee said:

Firstly, D-Money, thanks for that work.

 

I decided to continue on from your last paragraph which speaks of top pairing d-men. I looked through every NHL team and arbitrarily defined a top pairing d-man as one of the top two in average minutes per game on his team. It isn't perfect but it doesn't depend on any subjective judgments. There were probably better methods available to pick the top d-men and this results in some players (Hunwick, Stone for example) that few would consider legitimate top pairing d-men on decent teams, but I placed a fair value on being completely objective and on going by what the coaches thought of their players when assigning ice time.

 

The results were:

 

Montreal: Subban (2nd rd) Markov (6th rd)

Boston: Chara (3rd rd, VFA) Krug (undrafted FA)

Detroit: Kronwall (1st rd) DeKeyser (undrafted FA)

(Green is just behind DeKeyser in ave TOI at present)

Florida: B Campbell (6th rd, trade) Ekblad (1st rd #1 overall)

Ottawa: Karlsson (1st rd) Methot (6th rd, trade)

Tampa: Hedman (1st rd #2) Stralman (7th rd, VFA)

Buffalo: Ristolainen (1st rd) Bogosian (1st rd, trade)

Toronto: Hunwick (7th rd, VFA) Phaneuf (1st rd, trade)

(Morgan Reilly, a 1st round pick, is a close 3rd in ave TOI on the Leafs)

 

Wash Carlson (1st rd) Niskanen (1st round)

NYI Hamonic (2nd rd) Leddy (1st rd, obtained in trade)

NYR McDonagh (1st rd) Klein (2nd rd, obtained in trade)

(at this moment Girardi, an undrafted FA, is 1 second behind Klein in ave TOI for NYR)

NJ Greene (undrafted FA) Larsson (1st rd)

Phi del Zotto (1st rd) Streit (9th rd, obtained in trade)

Pit Letang (3rd rd) Daley (2nd rd, obtained in trade)

Carolina Faulk (2nd rd) Hainsey (1st rd)

CBJ Johnson (1st rd) Savard (4th rd)

 

Dallas Klingberg (5th rd) Goligoski (2nd rd)

St L Pietrangelo (1st rd) Bouwmeester (1st rd-#3 overall, obtained in trade)

Chi Keith (2nd rd) Seabrook (1st rd)

Nash Josi (2nd rd) Weber (2nd rd)

Minn Suter (1st rd, FA) Spurgeon (6th rd not signed, signed as rookie FA)

Col Beauchemin (3rd rd, FA) Johnson (1st rd, trade)

(Tyson Barrie, a 3rd rounder, is a close 3rd in ave TOI for Colorado)

Wpg Byfuglien (8th rd, trade) Myers (1st rd, trade)

 

LA Doughty (1st rd #2) Muzzin (5th rounder not signed, rookie FA)

SJ Burns (1st rd, trade) Vlasic (2nd rd)

Vanc Edler (3rd rd) Tanev (undrafted FA)

Phoenix Ekman-Larsson (1st rd) Stone (3rd rd)

Calg Brodie (4th rd) Giordano (undrafted FA)

Edm Klefbom (1st rd) Sekera (3rd rd, signed as FA)

Ana Fowler (1st rd) Bieksa (??) (5th rd, trade)

(to much complaining on the Ducks forum on hfboards, Bieksa narrowly leads Hampus Lindholm in average TOI. Lindholm was a 1st rd pick)

 

Totals: 18 of 60 were drafted by their present teams in the 1st round

8 of 60 were drafted by their present teams in the 2nd round

3 of 60 were drafted by their present teams in the 3rd round

4 of 60 were drafted by their present teams lower than the 3rd round

7 of 60 came to their present teams as undrafted or rookie free agents, 5 of whom were never drafted and 2 of whom were low round picks who did not sign with the team drafting them

14 of 60 came to their present teams via trade

6 of 60 came to their present teams as veteran free agents

 

Draft placings by round:

 

1-26

2-10

3-6

4-2

5-3

6-4

7-2

8-1

9-1

not drafted-5

 

Conclusions: None of this will be surprising or profound.

-Almost half of all top pairing defencemen are drafted in the 1st round and the number available to be drafted later generally decreases as the rounds go by, especially after the 3rd round, but 30% of the players in the top two on their teams in average ice time were either drafted later than the 3rd round or went undrafted and were signed as undrafted free agents.

-Two-thirds of all top pairing defencemen were either drafted by their present teams or signed by them as rookie free agents.

-10% of top pairing defencemen came to their present teams as veteran free agents and about 23% were obtained by trade.

Taking into account that (a) most of the top 2 d-men on each team are still with the organization they broke in with, and (b) obtaining a player by the draft is certainly cheaper than by trade or getting a veteran free agent it seems fairly clear that the best way to acquire top defencemen, just like it is the best place to acquire top forwards, is through the draft.  That doesn't mean, though, that top d-men can't be acquired via trade or free agency, just that it isn't common and (my speculation) that will be because general managers want to keep those players and the cost to acquire them via trade or free agency will be high.

I noticed you missed a couple trades - McDonagh, Goligoski...

I guess I should have rephrased it as: the Canucks need a bonafide top defenseman. Not just who earns minutes by default. As I pointed out, half of those guys are generally 1st rounders, and rarely are they found outside of the 2nd round.

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On ‎12‎/‎23‎/‎2015 at 5:02 PM, tyhee said:

Firstly, D-Money, thanks for that work.

 

I decided to continue on from your last paragraph which speaks of top pairing d-men. I looked through every NHL team and arbitrarily defined a top pairing d-man as one of the top two in average minutes per game on his team. It isn't perfect but it doesn't depend on any subjective judgments. There were probably better methods available to pick the top d-men and this results in some players (Hunwick, Stone for example) that few would consider legitimate top pairing d-men on decent teams, but I placed a fair value on being completely objective and on going by what the coaches thought of their players when assigning ice time.

 

The results were:

 

Montreal: Subban (2nd rd) Markov (6th rd)

Boston: Chara (3rd rd, VFA) Krug (undrafted FA)

Detroit: Kronwall (1st rd) DeKeyser (undrafted FA)

(Green is just behind DeKeyser in ave TOI at present)

Florida: B Campbell (6th rd, trade) Ekblad (1st rd #1 overall)

Ottawa: Karlsson (1st rd) Methot (6th rd, trade)

Tampa: Hedman (1st rd #2) Stralman (7th rd, VFA)

Buffalo: Ristolainen (1st rd) Bogosian (1st rd, trade)

Toronto: Hunwick (7th rd, VFA) Phaneuf (1st rd, trade)

(Morgan Reilly, a 1st round pick, is a close 3rd in ave TOI on the Leafs)

 

Wash Carlson (1st rd) Niskanen (1st round)

NYI Hamonic (2nd rd) Leddy (1st rd, obtained in trade)

NYR McDonagh (1st rd) Klein (2nd rd, obtained in trade)

(at this moment Girardi, an undrafted FA, is 1 second behind Klein in ave TOI for NYR)

NJ Greene (undrafted FA) Larsson (1st rd)

Phi del Zotto (1st rd) Streit (9th rd, obtained in trade)

Pit Letang (3rd rd) Daley (2nd rd, obtained in trade)

Carolina Faulk (2nd rd) Hainsey (1st rd)

CBJ Johnson (1st rd) Savard (4th rd)

 

Dallas Klingberg (5th rd) Goligoski (2nd rd)

St L Pietrangelo (1st rd) Bouwmeester (1st rd-#3 overall, obtained in trade)

Chi Keith (2nd rd) Seabrook (1st rd)

Nash Josi (2nd rd) Weber (2nd rd)

Minn Suter (1st rd, FA) Spurgeon (6th rd not signed, signed as rookie FA)

Col Beauchemin (3rd rd, FA) Johnson (1st rd, trade)

(Tyson Barrie, a 3rd rounder, is a close 3rd in ave TOI for Colorado)

Wpg Byfuglien (8th rd, trade) Myers (1st rd, trade)

 

LA Doughty (1st rd #2) Muzzin (5th rounder not signed, rookie FA)

SJ Burns (1st rd, trade) Vlasic (2nd rd)

Vanc Edler (3rd rd) Tanev (undrafted FA)

Phoenix Ekman-Larsson (1st rd) Stone (3rd rd)

Calg Brodie (4th rd) Giordano (undrafted FA)

Edm Klefbom (1st rd) Sekera (3rd rd, signed as FA)

Ana Fowler (1st rd) Bieksa (??) (5th rd, trade)

(to much complaining on the Ducks forum on hfboards, Bieksa narrowly leads Hampus Lindholm in average TOI. Lindholm was a 1st rd pick)

 

Totals: 18 of 60 were drafted by their present teams in the 1st round

8 of 60 were drafted by their present teams in the 2nd round

3 of 60 were drafted by their present teams in the 3rd round

4 of 60 were drafted by their present teams lower than the 3rd round

7 of 60 came to their present teams as undrafted or rookie free agents, 5 of whom were never drafted and 2 of whom were low round picks who did not sign with the team drafting them

14 of 60 came to their present teams via trade

6 of 60 came to their present teams as veteran free agents

 

Draft placings by round:

 

1-26

2-10

3-6

4-2

5-3

6-4

7-2

8-1

9-1

not drafted-5

 

Conclusions: None of this will be surprising or profound.

-Almost half of all top pairing defencemen are drafted in the 1st round and the number available to be drafted later generally decreases as the rounds go by, especially after the 3rd round, but 30% of the players in the top two on their teams in average ice time were either drafted later than the 3rd round or went undrafted and were signed as undrafted free agents.

-Two-thirds of all top pairing defencemen were either drafted by their present teams or signed by them as rookie free agents.

-10% of top pairing defencemen came to their present teams as veteran free agents and about 23% were obtained by trade.

Taking into account that (a) most of the top 2 d-men on each team are still with the organization they broke in with, and (b) obtaining a player by the draft is certainly cheaper than by trade or getting a veteran free agent it seems fairly clear that the best way to acquire top defencemen, just like it is the best place to acquire top forwards, is through the draft.  That doesn't mean, though, that top d-men can't be acquired via trade or free agency, just that it isn't common and (my speculation) that will be because general managers want to keep those players and the cost to acquire them via trade or free agency will be high.

This is the "Money"! Great Job D Money

Best current breakdown of Dmen I have seen!

Sure illustrates the need to pick Dmen in the early rounds (1 and 2)

Maybe taking our chances this year and moving all in, if we acquire extra picks would not be such a back idea, pick 4 or 5 Dmen in the 1st and 2nd round, and then let them sit and develop wouldn't be such a bad idea, long term

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On 12/23/2015 at 5:02 PM, tyhee said:

....

Draft placings by round:

 

1-26

2-10

3-6

4-2

5-3

6-4

7-2

8-1

9-1

not drafted-5

 

Conclusions: None of this will be surprising or profound.

-Almost half of all top pairing defencemen are drafted in the 1st round and the number available to be drafted later generally decreases as the rounds go by, especially after the 3rd round, but 30% of the players in the top two on their teams in average ice time were either drafted later than the 3rd round or went undrafted and were signed as undrafted free agents.

-Two-thirds of all top pairing defencemen were either drafted by their present teams or signed by them as rookie free agents.

-10% of top pairing defencemen came to their present teams as veteran free agents and about 23% were obtained by trade.

Taking into account that (a) most of the top 2 d-men on each team are still with the organization they broke in with, and (b) obtaining a player by the draft is certainly cheaper than by trade or getting a veteran free agent it seems fairly clear that the best way to acquire top defencemen, just like it is the best place to acquire top forwards, is through the draft.  That doesn't mean, though, that top d-men can't be acquired via trade or free agency, just that it isn't common and (my speculation) that will be because general managers want to keep those players and the cost to acquire them via trade or free agency will be high.

Great work, tyhee! Thanks for going to the effort of doing this. One thing that I find interesting is, as I have seen in data before, that there is very little difference in draft rounds past the 3rd round. First round picks are obviously very valuable, second round picks are valuable, and 3rd round picks are of some value. Beyond that all the picks are lottery tickets and they do not differ much in value from round to round.

I agree the main conclusion: even though it is harder to project future performance by Ds at the draft than it is for forwards, it is still important to focus on drafting good Ds in the top 2 or 3 rounds.

That of course is why it is important to for Benning to trade vets for picks for the 2016 draft. Two or three extra picks in the first three rounds would be a big plus, especially as Benning does seem to have  a good eye for talent.

If we look at the draft picks Benning has given up: 2nd for Baertschi, 2nd for Vey, 3rd for Pedan, the result so far is pretty good. Without doing the actual analysis I am sure that the expected value of those three guys exceeds the expected value of those three draft picks.

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On 2015-12-23 at 9:18 AM, D-Money said:

I noticed you missed a couple trades - McDonagh, Goligoski...

...

So far this year McDonagh has played only for the Rangers and shows as their top defensive player in time on ice, and Goligoski has played only for the Stars and showed as their 2nd highest defenceman in time on ice but is now 1st having moved ahead of Klingberg.  What did I miss?

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49 minutes ago, tyhee said:

So far this year McDonagh has played only for the Rangers and shows as their top defensive player in time on ice, and Goligoski has played only for the Stars and showed as their 2nd highest defenceman in time on ice but is now 1st having moved ahead of Klingberg.  What did I miss?

That they were acquired by trades.

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