kilgore Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Here's a fun little exercise and read from last year that illustrates the point of just how bad the Ron Delorme era was. Sorry for the length but I can't figure out how to get the tables to show up in the spoiler box. You'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll hurl. ..................... Amazing. In spite of the obvious flaws, like only picking forwards, it still shows the pathetic job that Delorme has done. (It also raises the idea that a team could fire the scouting staff, only pick top scoring forwards, and then trade those assets later for good D and G positions). Still be ahead. Cool! Now do one for the Mike Penny years. It will perhaps better illustrate your point. regards, G. One of the main reasons for our teams perennial failure is that we have never had a decent scouting department. Its been mentioned already but Penny was chief when the Canucks were yearly picking near the top because of their dismal on ice performance. Between bad trades (Neely) and dumb drafting we didn't stand a chance. That study never gets old. It's so simplistic yet it shows how often times scouts can be swayed by their subjective opinion. I would love to see a similar study ran with NHL Equivalences allowing for picks outside the CHL. Anyone who doesn't think analytics is the way of the future in NHL drafts is either completely ignorant or illogical. When we start getting good shot data, draft won't be nearly such a crap-shoot. If we can get reliable shot data I don't think their would even need to be a 6th or 7th round (there barely is a need for them today). Some teams over the past 4 or so years have already taken a very heavy analytical approach to draft (Winnipeg, LA, and now the Leafs to name a few). Now of course, I would never advocate for a purely number based drafting approach (although this study does make a compelling argument) but every model should have a significant filter through quantitative means to arrive upon a pool of top candidates. At that point a subjective, observational data provided by scouts could help rank the remain pool by whatever characteristics a given team is looking for in prospects. No doubt scouting is moving away from little arenas and more towards spreadsheets and game tape breakdowns. Too bad Benning is anti-progressive and has stated that he thinks analytics isn't useful in scouting and drafting (and for that matter at the NHL level based on his actions and explanations over the past year). If this is true, we are doomed. It reminds me of myself betting on horses. I've only gone a few times in my life. I know nothing about it. Last time was like 8 years ago. Because I knew nothing, I took advantage of going down and right up to the front while they trotted the horses out just before the race. I studied which horse 'looked' like it would be a winner. Which was looking energetic, and confident and healthy compared to the others. I did come close, and placed a couple of times, but it was no way to pick a winner. I know its not that simple, but Benning flying around NA watching random games, and basing his decisions, less on analytics, and more on where one player may look good when trotting out for that particular game, is not a sustainable way to draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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