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Ray Ferraro on Analytics and Brandon Sutter


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my only concern is, if sutter is not a play maker, can he be successful on the second line with vrbata...? seems to me, he'ld fit better with burrows and maybe baerschi...if sutter was a third line centre he would fit perfect...maybe he will surprise us all.

So put Vrbata on a line with the Sedins', pump up his numbers and if they are planning to move him at the trade deadline, he will garner a handsome return.

Dank Hank Vrbata

Bear Sutter Burrows

Problem solved.

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Or maybe Pittsburgh just has different needs? They have two superstar centres already and, like the Blackhawks for instance, need cheap young contracts in order to stay under the cap.

I don't think anyone is expecting him to be an elite first line centre, but who's saying he can't be a really good second line guy? I think we're going to have to wait and see when he's given the opportunity.

A lot of people are. But honestly, it's moot, as neither was Bonino.
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You know, the tangible and intangible can co-exist at the same time. It's ridiculous how so many people take the stance of one vs. the other. Talk of analytics always comes down to this same old boring debate, value or no value, one or the other. The complete picture is a combination of analytics and a variety of factors that can't easily be quantified. The tangible tells one side, the intangibles tell another side. Yeah, analytics are valuable but not the be all, end all determining factor. Simple really! What more needs to be said about that?

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I haven't had the opportunity to see a large enough body of work on Sutter to agree or disagree with the amount of comments that are telling me how it is. I've watched a lot of videos and read a lot of commentary, but it's really tough for me to get passionate about whether he or Bonino was the better choice. I don't always agree with Ferraro, but he does back his points up with reasons as why he comes to his conclusions which is a damn sight better than way too many "analysts" I hear with regularity. I have to agree with Ferraro's take on analytics. I think there are holes in how it measures performance and I think it will be tweaked to be a more effective tool in the coming years.

I totally don't agree with this...

No way. He can't know that. I bet it is a factor in a lot of trades, whether it is a deal maker or breaker is another thing altogether. It has to be a factor considered by NHL GMs in 2015.

If there is one thing I love about this trade is how much our roster is changing. We were stagnating and stale. Now there are a bunch of new faces and I am super excited to see play. Call me crazy, but I'm feeling really optimistic.

Of course analytics are factored in to trades. Ferraro could have said not EVERY GM factors in analytics but to say ZERO GMs factor in analytics is just wrong. Shanahan hired Asst GM Kyle Dubas because he's some sort of analytics whiz and they've made several trades since then. No doubt in my mind analytics played a role in TOR. I don't understand how ppl take a guy like Ferraro's word for gold. They'll come on CDC and say "I heard it from Ray Ferraro so I take his word over such and such, etc etc...."

Nonsense that just confirms you can't think for yourself. Don't get me wrong I like Ferraro and respect his hockey knowledge, but doesn't mean he's always right. Ferraro gets paid to talk, he does a lot of talking all day every day. Not everything that comes out of his mouth is golden.

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Thank you, Ray.

I'm a regular reader of Canucksarmy, and I enjoyed PITB until they lost me by crapping on Ryan Miller too much.

You'd think people using stats to analyze players would be reasonable. As in the stats help to make a reasonable assumption about a player.

But in recent days both these stats based sites have destroyed the Canucks on the Sutter trade. It's like they're winding each other up to wilder levels of unreasonable assumptions based on numbers, formulas and equations, in complete desregard of the human element that is also very much a part of a reasonable assessment of a player.

http://canucksarmy.com/2015/7/28/first-look-canucks-pay-too-much-for-brandon-sutter

and then this self-sure, overly cocky fantasy piece:

http://canucksarmy.com/2015/7/29/5-things-projecting-brandon-sutter-s-next-contract

and this article stands out for its presumptuous, insulting, know-it-all slant:

http://passittobulis.blogspot.ca/2015/07/canucks-trade-nick-bonino-for-brandon.html#more

Over the course of last season it was an analytics beat down. It was overly negative and became tiresome.

The "reporting" on the Sutter deal by sites that I usually enjoy is driving me further away from these stats based assumptions.

For instance: I don't care what the stats say about Bonino, and I am eternally grateful to Benning for splitting up the Higgins/Bonino snoozefest.

I don't think you'd find too many GMs in the league that would take Bonino over Sutter. My opinion.

I'm just kvetching here, but it would be nice to see a few less "the sky is falling" articles from our knowledgable writers.

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That's not what I mean. I meant that Sutter would not have been on the table if he was or is going to be that good. However, I don't think anyone expects him to be.

I disagree with this point. Lots of good players end up on the trade block. Sometimes it is a matter of team needs...and a good player fits another teams needs more than the player they have...who also may be good.

And you probably remember that Wayne guy that got traded from Edmonton to LA back in the day.

He was a pretty good player.

Lots of other examples, too.

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Is it? We haven't won a trade since Ehrhoff came here. However, that was when so many other things came together for this team. Going to be awhile before that happens again.

I'd rather a GM keep on trying. What is he supposed to do...go all gun-shy because a trade doesn't work out? Gotta have balls to get ahead. Benning is giving it a go and in some of these cases, he's not dealing from a position of strength. He's doing as well as can be expected from the shackled mess he was left with.

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I'd rather a GM keep on trying. What is he supposed to do...go all gun-shy because a trade doesn't work out? Gotta have balls to get ahead. Benning is giving it a go and in some of these cases, he's not dealing from a position of strength. He's doing as well as can be expected from the shackled mess he was left with.

All we can do is hope that all these high-cost trades don't bite us in the ass years from now I guess.
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While I do agree that Sutter is the best player in the trade so we upgraded positionally, I still am not a big fan of what we paid for it. If it was only Bonino and a 2nd for Sutter and a 3rd, or Bonino and Clendening for Sutter then I would be happy with it but the fact that we paid that much for a more expensive player who is not a HUGE upgrade over Bonino kind of irks me.

Oh well come September and training camp I'll be ecstatic to see Sutter and Prust on the team.

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Canucks Army and PITB are just a bunch of 20-somethings that aren't intelligent enough to apply their 'stats' knowledge to real world jobs and so use pseudo-methods to present arguments of player value.

They are no more about research/methodology/statistics than the Church of Scientology is about science.

Analytics have their value, but the amount of misguided assumptions those groups make is laughable.

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While I do agree that Sutter is the best player in the trade so we upgraded positionally, I still am not a big fan of what we paid for it. If it was only Bonino and a 2nd for Sutter and a 3rd, or Bonino and Clendening for Sutter then I would be happy with it but the fact that we paid that much for a more expensive player who is not a HUGE upgrade over Bonino kind of irks me.

Oh well come September and training camp I'll be ecstatic to see Sutter and Prust on the team.

"That much..."

The pick swap is a fairly insignificant in the late 2nd/early 3rd 10'ish spots.

Clendening was a redundant, slower, less developed version of Weber who would have been at best our 8th D and very likely lost on waivers for nothing or rotting in the press box. His value on it's own was likely the same 5th rounder we traded for him...maybe a 4th at best.

We had to pay on top of Bonino to get the best/better player in the trade. A drop of 10'ish spots in the third and a 5th, maybe 4th rounder is really not as high of a price as many on here are making it out to be.

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Have to admit that the tables and tables of numbers generated by the advanced stats folks mean nothing to me. Having been an avid hockey fan and student of the game for well over fifty years, I existed quite happily for the first half-century without Corsis and Fenwicks and WOWY's and zone starts and players driving possession.

At best, statistical analysis can isolate and identify trends and patterns. It quantifies the quantifiable, but as Ferraro says, all the statistical analysis in the world won't tell you whether Brandon Sutter can be successful against the likes of Getzlaf, Kopitar, McDavid or the no-longer-18-year-old Sam Bennett. Not to say advanced stats aren't useful, I just don't know exactly how they are useful.

Example: Kyle Dubas is an advanced stats guru who has been employed by Toronto for a year or so. How did his presence help the team make the playoffs? This off-season they have signed Arcobello, Spaling, Parenteau, Matthias, Marincin and Hunwick. They all must have great fancy stats because they don't stand out in any other category.

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Remember...he's whealing and dealing, but the blue-chip prospects are all still here, that's the main thing.

That's the main thing. We didn't give up any "core" prospects to get a 26 year old two-way center who scored 21 goals last season.

I think that has to be considered a win.

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That's not what I mean. I meant that Sutter would not have been on the table if he was or is going to be that good. However, I don't think anyone expects him to be.

Pretty obvious that the Pens were not going to be able to resign him to an extension. Tgey had no choice but to move him when they could.

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