SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I'm a enthusiastic proponent of analytics and even I think the general tone in blogs and forums is getting carried away and become far too stats-heavy. It's becoming quite bothersome how some websites are choosing to breakdown hockey moves from an almost exclusively stats-driven perspective and ignoring the other factors (like the ones that informed nearly every hockey decision in NHL front offices until sometime around 2005). And it's equally bothersome to see the cherrypicking going on with some of the anti-Benning crowd. It started with Sbisa (and those snide little articles saying that he was "the worst player in the NHL" based on a single metric) and now has become de rigueur within the CA/PITB/HFCanucks crowd (or at least among a certain segment of that group) in analyzing every move made by this organization. While I can't avoid feeling somewhat concerned by a few of the stats, there's just not enough actual evidence for the positions we're seeing advanced regarding this team and the decisions of its management. Certainly the stats can highlight potential areas of concern, but they never tell the whole story, especially if only looking a few metrics (and even more so if you cherrypick for the ones that will paint things in the most negative light). We need to wait and see what this group looks like on the ice and how they perform when the games actually start. In past seasons, we've seen several fancy-stats darlings play in Vancouver who haven't really helped the team to truly perform better (or win more games). The reverse could easily prove out over the coming years (with some "poor" stats players actually helping this team win). Much of that will come down to questions of "fit" and "eye test" and these are the areas that were trumpeted as Benning's strengths when he was hired. It's quite possible that Benning's "scout's eye" can see something that the analytics just miss (just like analytics sometimes highlight the "eye test" blindspots). Again, we'll starting getting some real answers once these players actually hit the ice. But until then, here are some (unapologetically cherrypicked) stats that support many of Benning's moves: http://hockeyfreeforall.com/2015/07/01/the-kevin-bieksa-trade-fleecing-is-advanced-bracton-on-steroids/ And while I'm not a big believer in the predictive value of the "Advanced Bracton" they do suggest that Benning's moves are winning on the "penalty margin" metric. This even goes for the Sutter trade: At hockeyfreeforall.com we track net penalty margin as a partial indicator of a player’s contribution to a team. Brandon Sutter has been in the top quintile in the NHL in net penalty margin for at least the last two seasons (we actually calculated 2013 recently as well). In VANs case, that would have been half a penalty per game last season versus a net 0.0 for Bonino. A net positive player for VANwould have produced an extra 3.6 goals per 60 minutes on the power play. And these guys also think the team Benning's assembled will make the playoffs, based on their proprietaty metric: http://www.nucksmisconduct.com/2015/7/16/8978313/the-canucks-should-be-playoff-bound-again-in-2016 So it's not always what the stats say but which stats you're looking at (again, not saying I'm a fan of the "Bracton" stat as a predictive metric, but more to just illustrate the point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thad Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 There is a high probability that Brandon Sutter is indeed a career black hole of puck possession and he's going to be paid WAY too much here based on 100% intangibles. Those expecting 'the next Kesler' will be disappointed. Kesler was a 40-goal man at Sutter's current age. Pittsburgh would not have given him up if he was this 'buried offensive star' that some think he may be. Right now Benning is working the phones like he's everyone's best friend. I've always found it amusing that metrix are thrown right out the window as soon as the numbers don't fit their argument. I don't think anyone's expecting the next Kesler. He's a poor mans Kesler offensively. Taking that into account Kesler costed bonino 1st sbisa.. Poor mans Kesler costed bonino, a dman that hasnt cracked the NHL yet and a small draft drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patchoball Cannons Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Give Sutter a couple of years with Takahashi and he will be like Kesler was for us, but with leadership abilities and without the attitude problems. He is who they wanted last year for Kesler for this exact reason. Can play pig minutes, skates well, great on the PK, very good in the circle, plays a shutdown role, can chip in 20-25 goals and thrives in big games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOMapleLaughs Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 With regards to going overboard with stats, did anyone read Jessop's Sutter trade blog? Wow. The pages and pages of whitenoise in this one was particularly torturous. The downtrend and process the team is going to go through here is going to be brutal enough without this neverending sssssshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh sound in the background. Not a fan of stats nerds, but the stats themselves have value. The fans can always look at numbers and on-ice play for themselves and make a call. Besides, frack, it's not like Bonino was going to lead us to the promised land anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Fig Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 According to this advanced exponential regression analytics chart, Sutter is clearly the better player than Bonino. The situational zone time spoke chart is very telling when you factor in even strength zone entries Bar graphs. You can never argue with a well-constructed, colour-coded bar graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaudette Celly Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Nobody knows what the plan is right now or even if there's a plan. So yup maybe that's the plan! I realize playing the Nellie/Nancy is your schtick, but comments like that are abject trollage. Put down the mouse and Cheetos and go outside and get some sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Fig Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Straight up, on the same contract, I would take Sutter over Bonino despite advanced stats. That said, their contracts really tip the scale in Bonino's favour. And despite a bit of an off year, Clendening is far move valuable than simply a throw-in.You better make your concerns known to Benning before he consummates that deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeslerPlaysLikeACanadian Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 It's not like I searched his name, saw how many points he had, and came here. There's video on the internet too, you know that? I've watched his highlights and lowlights on YouTube. Sounds like you know all about him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeslerPlaysLikeACanadian Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I just wish at some point soon the Canucks aren't the ones adding to a trade to make it happen. Did it ever occur to you that the asking price was really high to start? Like, Rutherford wanted Bonino and Hamhuis at the draft, and Benning played patient and chiseled him down to Bonino plus a marginal prospect? My favorite thing about CDC right now is how many people have the ability to assess Bonino and Sutter's value, despite considerable unfamiliarity, like they just looked it up in the Beckett. Who are you to say that Bonino and Sutter are a wash, and Clendening was an unnecessary throw-in? Me, I want a new team. Not the Gillis-era paralysis. Unlike so many people here, Benning is very familiar with Sutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeslerPlaysLikeACanadian Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 According to this advanced exponential regression analytics chart, Sutter is clearly the better player than Bonino. The situational zone time spoke chart is very telling when you factor in even strength zone entries This is pretty much the worst thing that could happen to hockey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOMapleLaughs Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 I realize playing the Nellie/Nancy is your schtick, but comments like that are abject trollage. Put down the mouse and Cheetos and go outside and get some sun.This isn't even my schtick lately, as league-wide media outlets have echoed this notion if you'd pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilduce39 Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Has there been an evaluation of how players' fancy stats correlate to past outcomes after a trade? IE a player is with team A for a few years, playing a certain role with certain linemates and then gets traded. Do stats stay the same or is there a lot of fluctuation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier's_elbow Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Remember...he's whealing and dealing, but the blue-chip prospects are all still here, that's the main thing.Yeah exactly. When I heard we got Sutter I was thinking Cassels was going the other wY and when I saw it was Bonino I was quite happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snucks Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 So far they still have the aging team with Edler and Vey. For some reason Vey is still on the team. Trading away Eddie Lack and Kassian leaves a void as far crowd plaeasers go. Linden has not yet improved the team by just relying on the people he hired. Its the same old ; do just enough to create some fan interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 So far they still have the aging team with Edler and Vey. For some reason Vey is still on the team. Trading away Eddie Lack and Kassian leaves a void as far crowd plaeasers go. Linden has not yet improved the team by just relying on the people he hired. Its the same old ; do just enough to create some fan interest. Kassian will be replaced by Virtanen in short order IMO. Lack...well we'll have to see if Markstrom can fill his shoes (or preferably make bigger ones). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonMexico Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 So far they still have the aging team with Edler and Vey. For some reason Vey is still on the team. Trading away Eddie Lack and Kassian leaves a void as far crowd plaeasers go. Linden has not yet improved the team by just relying on the people he hired. Its the same old ; do just enough to create some fan interest. Kassian was a crowd pleaser? Let's not get carried away. Horvat and Kenins did more in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Soldier Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Kassian will be replaced by Virtanen in short order IMO. Lack...well we'll have to see if Markstrom can fill his shoes (or preferably make bigger ones). What shoes did Lack leave behind, exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kakanucks Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 What shoes did Lack leave behind, exactly? His clown shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SvenBae Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 the roster entering into the season is: Sedin Sedin Vrbata Baertchi Sutter Burrows/Higgins Hansen Horvat Kenin/Higgins/Burrows Prust Vey Dorsett I'd like to see, Sedin Sedin Burrows Baertschi Horvat/Sutter Vrbata Higgins Horvat/Sutter Hansen Prust Vey Dorsett Not sure how Canucks fans can complain about that forward group. Might even see one of our center prospects slot in for Vey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier's_elbow Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 Ferrarro was pretty dead on with his analysis from what I've seen of Sutter. Big reach and decent wheels, not the greatest in the corners but great with his stick. Great penalty killer but has tunnel vision. Good shot though even if he isn't a great playmaker. Decent 2c until Horvat can take the role then Sutter can be the elite 3c we have coveted since Malhotra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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