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Prospects and Targets


JamesB

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As I have 2,999 posts so far I thought I should try to provide some useful analysis for post #3,000.

I have been wondering about reasonable performance targets for the Canuck prospects: in light of draft position, is the prospect on track so far, ahead of the curve or behind the curve? And what does he need to do next year to stay on track?

I won't cover Baertschi or Corrado as they will be on the Canucks this year.

My favorite analysis of the relationship between draft position and performance is http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/. Top draft picks (1-5 overall) almost always become good NHL players but the probabilities drop off fast. By the time we get to #15 overall the probability of playing 200+ games in the NHL drops to about 50%, and that probability is down to about 30% for second round picks, 20% for 3rd round picks and 15% for 4th round picks.

1. Jake Virtanen. As a #6 overall pick in his draft+2 year Jake will need to do a lot just be on track. Most top 10 picks plays significant time in the NHL in their draft+2 season (and almost no one else does). To be on track for a #6 pick Jake needs to be at least good enough to get a 9-game tryout with the Canucks and will be slightly behind the norm if he is sent down. If he does go back to Junior he needs to score at least 1.3 points per game (PPG), make the Canadian Juniors in the top 6 and play well in the world Juniors. Last year he was good, making progress in his defensive game, making the Canadian juniors in the bottom 6, and showing he could play physically at the pro level in Utica. But his scoring rate was disappointing and did not improve from the previous year. He was slightly behind the curve for last year. At the end of the season he was ranked only #31 in the HF prospect rankings, well below Ehlers (#3) and Nylander (#11), where were picked after him.

2. Thatcher Demko. He will be back at Boston College (BC) in 2015-16 but the Canucks have talked about getting him to turn pro and play in Utica after the college season is over. He had an excellent year and had successful surgery to correct his longstanding hip problem. He is ahead of the curve. If he can have another good year at BC and be good enough to play for Utica at the end of the season that would be very good.

3. Jared McCann. As a fairly low first rounder (#24) overall, his expected performance is less than a #6 pick and he had exceeded that expectation so far. (Fewer than half of the #24 picks play 200+ games in the NHL whereas over 90% of #6 picks do.) McCann had an excellent season in the OHL last year, scoring better than 1.4 PPG and being a very good defensive forward as well. If he raises his scoring even slightly (to the 1.5 PPG level), makes the Canadian world junior team and continues to gain strength he will be continue to be ahead of the curve for a #24 pick. He does not have Virtanen's physical game or speed, but some people have McCann as pretty close to Virtanen in potential right now.

4. Brock Boesser. The #23 overall pick in 2015 will be a freshman for North Dakota in the NCAA next year. To be on track he needs to be one of the best players on the team this year, and needs to score close to 1 PPG. If he exceeds 1 PPG and make the US World Junior team he will be ahead of the curve for a #23 overall pick in his draft +1 year.

5. Cole Cassels. For a 3rd round picks Cassels is way ahead of the curve. The vast majority of 3rd rounders do not became NHL regulars and most do not even become good AHL players. To stay ahead of the curve Cassels needs to play an effective two-way game in the AHL, playing center in the bottom 6. If he ends up playing 2C and scoring close to half a point a game in the AHL that would be excellent performance and have him on track to help the Canucks at 3C or 4C a couple of years after that. Right now his trajectory is more like a low first round pick rather than a third round pick.

6. Other forwards: Shinkaruk (draft +3), Gaunce (draft +4), Jensen (draft +5), Grenier (draft +5)

As a 3rd round pick, Grenier is actually slightly ahead of the curve as it looks like he has a better than 50-50 chance of making the Canucks this year or next. He made a lot of progress last year but he needs to continue to improve this year. He is big and strong and tough, but has improved his defensive play. He needs to score maybe .75 PPG game playing in the top 6 for the Comets to be on track to make the Canucks. He should get some playing time on the Canucks this year in the bottom 6. This is a make or break year for him as next year he will be waiver-eligible.

For a low first round pick, Jensen is behind the curve. He is not strong defensively and does not play a physical game. He needs to score and guys like him need to score at close to the 1 PPG level in the AHL to have a good shot at the NHL. He needs to make a big step forward this year. In fact, not many potential top 6 forwards are still in the AHL through the draft+5 season. His best bet might be try to re-invent himself as a high intensity defensively responsible bottom 6 forward. He has not lived up to expectations for a low first round pick so far.

Gaunce and Shinkaruk both had decent years last year but both are probably slightly behind the curve for low first round picks. They look more like high second round picks at present. Gaunce has a better chance as he projects as a bottom 6 forward and has the size, strength and physical game to play that role. Shinkaruk is top 6 or nothing and right now nothing looks more likely than top 6. If Gaunce can score at about .5 PPG in Utica and play a "heavy" defensive game he will be on track and should get a look on the Canucks this year or next at some point. Shinkaruk needs to score at least 0.75 PPG this year playing in the top 6 at Utica.

Defensive Prospects: Pedan, Tryamkin, Subban, Hutton, McEneny, Sautner

Things are wide open on D. None of these guys are high picks. So it is "wait and see". It would nice to see one or two emerge as premium prospects this year. I like Pedan so far.

Sorry for the long write-up. Maybe I got carried away.

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Solid post and I agree with pretty much all of it. I'm actually a lot higher on McCann than Virtanen at this stage, even putting aside where they were drafted but all the more so taking it into account. Virtanen certainly has time to get back on track but as an Ehlers supporter at the time, I'm choking down the "I told you so" urge. But there's no question Jake has the tools. Get him out of Calgary, though, even if it means the 4th line and the pressbox in Vancouver. This kid needs better coaching than he's been getting. At this stage, all McCann needs is a bit more muscle and some pro experience. Lethal shot, strong skating, a bit nasty and a tight defensive game so he can transition in at 4C and take it from there. Cassels might be the only thing in his way.

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Don't mind the peanut gallery. You can't measure a player simply by their production, but you didn't simply focus on numbers, you included defensive awareness, lineup situations and reasonable expectations.

I would agree with almost all of your targets.

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OK. Let me break it down to you

If all of our prospects are not hitting 2 PPG not trying or 3 PPG trying in the AHL they are busts.

Also, I think Bennett is only 18 years old

I think you need to reread the post! That was a useless response.
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Oh no. Not again.

This crap again...

Thread #101 about our prospects from James B :rolleyes:

I think you need to reread the post! That was a useless response.

Coastal, these above posters, who are certainly prominent around the forum, wanted to make a splash in a thread that they had no business being in. They thought they'd be funny but they were not - and added nothing of substance to a thread.

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Seems like fair expectations mostly. Only problem I have is hockey prospects are like baseball prospects unless they are high draft picks or have great pedigree and are signed between 20-23 years of age they usually become busts or don't reach the level of play or consistency expected.

Plus they take ages to develop and very overvalued in general.

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This post might be a little behind it's expected development, but still appreciate the effort.

Despite the implicit criticism of my OP I admit that this is an amusing response. What can we say about the development of CDC overall. And which posters should be traded?

Seems like fair expectations mostly. Only problem I have is hockey prospects are like baseball prospects unless they are high draft picks or have great pedigree and are signed between 20-23 years of age they usually become busts or don't reach the level of play or consistency expected.

Plus they take ages to develop and very overvalued in general.

It is true that we all tend to over-value our players and get too optimistic about their progress. A lot of posters here probably remember the rave reviews for guys like Hodgson, Connauton. Schroeder, Jensen and others. In fact, not many Canuck draft picks in the last ten years are currently on the team. On last year's team the only draft pick from the 10 years 2005 through 2014 who was a regular on the team was Horvat. In addition, Corrado played 10 games.

Among the veterans the Sedins, Hansen, and Edler were Canuck draft picks.

But I expect things to look much better from this point of view 3 or 4 years down the road as I expect Horvat, Virtanen, McCann, and Cassels to all be on the team. Grenier and Gaunce have a shot and Demko has a very good shot. And we can't rule out Shinkaruk.

And of the large group of lower round defencemen draft picks I would expect one or maybe two to actually make the team by then, although I have no idea which ones.

That would represent a lot of young draft picks on the team.

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Despite the implicit criticism of my OP I admit that this is an amusing response. What can we say about the development of CDC overall. And which posters should be traded?

It is true that we all tend to over-value our players and get too optimistic about their progress. A lot of posters here probably remember the rave reviews for guys like Hodgson, Connauton. Schroeder, Jensen and others. In fact, not many Canuck draft picks in the last ten years are currently on the team. On last year's team the only draft pick from the 10 years 2005 through 2014 who was a regular on the team was Horvat. In addition, Corrado played 10 games.

Among the veterans the Sedins, Hansen, and Edler were Canuck draft picks.

But I expect things to look much better from this point of view 3 or 4 years down the road as I expect Horvat, Virtanen, McCann, and Cassels to all be on the team. Grenier and Gaunce have a shot and Demko has a very good shot. And we can't rule out Shinkaruk.

And of the large group of lower round defencemen draft picks I would expect one or maybe two to actually make the team by then, although I have no idea which ones.

That would represent a lot of young draft picks on the team.

3 or 4 NHL regulars would be a start to prove that the Canucks can develop and cultivate their own homegrown players.

By this franchise's terrible history of player development and draft assessments that would be a game changer if Benning accomplished that in his tenure.

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Good 3000'th post > you are welcome in my books.

A bit numbing assessment; in that everyone kept saying how much more reliable it was to pick forwards in the first round rather than D. But here we are with Jensen a long shot, Gaunce an ok bet to be a 3rd or 4th line guy & Shinkaruk needing to pick up his socks to have chance as well. And really all except McCann & Bo among our first round draftee's are behind expectations.

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3 or 4 NHL regulars would be a start to prove that the Canucks can develop and cultivate their own homegrown players.

By this franchise's terrible history of player development and draft assessments that would be a game changer if Benning accomplished that in his tenure.

Takes time to develop a team that has been set in place before you. JB is sticking to the plan and going about it in a methodical way. His trading Bonino his so called guy in the Keasler deal said a lot. Players take note JB will trade you.

I remember watching Boston build their Cup team, a lot of trades preceding their big win. I think Vancouver fans can expect the same.

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Good 3000'th post > you are welcome in my books.

A bit numbing assessment; in that everyone kept saying how much more reliable it was to pick forwards in the first round rather than D. But here we are with Jensen a long shot, Gaunce an ok bet to be a 3rd or 4th line guy & Shinkaruk needing to pick up his socks to have chance as well. And really all except McCann & Bo among our first round draftee's are behind expectations.

True and sobering, but probably not far off the odds when you look at it objectively. Our D though- can't keep neglecting it.

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Agree with you entirely.

Virtanen is expected to be a first or at least second line winger which is optimistic, and he really shouldn't have been picked 6th overall in a deep draft. He'll realistically be a full time NHLer but probably only a consistent 20 goal scorer for a few seasons. If he can crack the 30 goal mark for a year or two he'll be worth the pick, but he has a LONG way to go first. Before even thinking about the NHL, Virtanen needs to score well over a point per game in junior, and then ideally score at 0.4ish goals per game in the AHL.

Shinkaruk, Gaunce and Jensen could be NHL ready as early as next season, but they won't be impact players. Rather, they're all great tertiary scorers who need to play well defensively or they won't get a sniff at the NHL. Because of that, I think Gaunce is more advanced than the other two. Jensen has been a disappointment in terms of where he was drafted and how he's producing now, but he may well be a late bloomer (which I think he is). I hope all 3 get a good chance to steal a roster spot from someone like Dorsett or Prust this season, and judging from their strong playoffs, I think Gaunce or Shinkaruk might be the one to take the next step. To be fair I'd say Shinkaruk and Gaunce are on par with where they were drafted, but Jensen is a year behind.

Cassels has obviously been a surprise and is well ahead of his expectations, and McCann - despite being a relatively higher draft pick - is also impressing, but at a rate we expect of a 1st round pick.

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Takes time to develop a team that has been set in place before you. JB is sticking to the plan and going about it in a methodical way. His trading Bonino his so called guy in the Keasler deal said a lot. Players take note JB will trade you.

I remember watching Boston build their Cup team, a lot of trades preceding their big win. I think Vancouver fans can expect the same.

It's great he wants to make moves but his hands are kind of tied with the NTC's the players have in their contracts.

I rather overpay for guys but don't give them any security instead of handing out NTC's like candy which was Gillis' idea to get players to sign for hometown below market value discounts.

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