If Lidstrom can last, why not the Sedins?

[CRAZY_4_NAZZY]

Well may seem unrelated but certainly hope Luongo can play past 40.

James MirtleVerified account‏@mirtle

Here are the cap penalties from Roberto Luongo's contract for the Canucks if he retires early. Could be really ugly

[CanadianRugby]

Nick Lidstrom is arguably the best defenseman of all time. The Sedins aren't Lidstrom or Gretzky. They couldn't win the cup in their prime and there are 2 of them. Don't compare them to Lidstrom.

[Pete M]

I think the miles put on by top line forwards can be a lot harder than those put on by top line D-men.

You lose a step as a top line forward and it's very noticeable.

You lose a step as a top line D-man, and you can do other things in the defensive zone to make up for that to extend your career.

this...

however, the Sedins are fit and they take their performance seriously...they will come prepared to their best ability.

A better comparison would be them to Sundin...forward to forward.

Once Sundin got into poker stars, his game and focus shifted...he played until he was 38 but he was out of shape because of his time off and lack of motivation playing in Toronto and his swan song in Van city ($10M/season - Gillis, remember that..ha, ha, ha!).

Sedins fitness will go along way in keeping them elite because unbeknown to the Eastern folk, the Sedins are elite.

[smokes]

Nick Lidstrom is arguably the best defenseman of all time. The Sedins aren't Lidstrom or Gretzky. They couldn't win the cup in their prime and there are 2 of them. Don't compare them to Lidstrom.

Sorry to hurt your feelings on the little man crush you have with Lidstrom but I did not compare stats or impact on the game.

What Yzerman and Ferdorov had nothing to do with winning the Stanley Cup? No one compared the Sedins to Gretzky, I am just talking about career longevity not how good the players are.

When people like Lidstrom, Chelios, Larionov(sp?), Howe and most likely many others I did not mention, isn't it a little premature for the media and some fans to talk about the Sedin's demise? That's the only thing I am saying.

[khay]

Well may seem unrelated but certainly hope Luongo can play past 40.

James MirtleVerified account‏@mirtle

Here are the cap penalties from Roberto Luongo's contract for the Canucks if he retires early. Could be really ugly

Man, whenever this comes up I seriously wonder if the NHL has any integrity.

I'm going to say this, and not many people realize this: the sedins will not decline, atleast anytime soon. Why do I say that? They have that style of play where they slow the whole game down to their pace if you've noticed. Every team they have gone against, every player..the Sedins have it their way with the intensity level of the game (when they have the puck, that is!) Bottom line, with that style of play, players can definitely achieve a long successful career the way the Sedins are doing right now. I'm not saying its the only style but its definitely one that not many have realized.

Yeah but I think they need an elite level winger now (elite level in terms of smarts not just athelticism) to maintain their production level. They can slow the game down yes, but they won't be able to finish as many without a good line mate. Case in point, Calgary series. They generated ton of offensive zone time, but no finish once Burrows was injured.

For now, Burrows will do but I hope one of the young players will step through in the next couple of years.

[theminister]

Well may seem unrelated but certainly hope Luongo can play past 40.

James MirtleVerified account‏@mirtle

Here are the cap penalties from Roberto Luongo's contract for the Canucks if he retires early. Could be really ugly

I don't get how most people view this because they echo Mirtle's sentiments.

The Canucks should WANT Lou to retire early. Look at the numbers.

If, for example, Lou retires in 2017 we would face a lower cap hit at $1.7 mil than if he retires later, albeit for longer, so it would be more manageable to accommodate. On top of that the $800k salary retention that we currently have would go away. Under this scenario we would only be taking an extra $900k penalty for 5 years. That's not a major problem even if it is not ideal.

Unless, of course, people think he can do the full pull until 2022...which is highly unlikely. The worst case scenario is that he retires with one or two years left on his deal.

[Chalky]

Yes that's still very few injuries, and with how hard they train, their bodies have never taken a bad beating. One cracked bone in his foot doesn't make a huge difference. They're extremely healthy and strong, this is just some of what Alfie had compared to the Sedin's

Concussions: Alfredsson (Multiple), Daniel (One), Henrik (None)

Torn knee ligaments: Alfredsson (Multiple), Daniel (None), Henrik (None)

^^^

General knee injuries: Alfredsson (Multiple-Torn knee ligaments), Daniel (One-general knee injury-2 games-, Henrik (None)

Shoulder Injuries: Alfredsson (Multiple), Daniel (One-7 games in 2000), Henrik (One-4 games in 2002)

Leg injuries: Alfredsson (A few), Daniel (One-hamstring-9 games), Henrik (One-4 games)

Hips: Alfredsson (Multiple hip flexor injuries), Daniel (None), Henrik (None)

Abdominals and Obliques/Core: Alfredsson (Multiple), Daniel (One-1 game-2006), Henrik (One-6 games-2004)

I'm not trying to disprove or even disagree that Alfie had more injuries, there is more than enough fact to prove your point. Alls I'm saying is (I think) they are likely going to retire at a similar age. Injuries aren't always what end careers, not to mention the Sedins are Vikings and are tougher than they get credit for. I will be surprised to see them sign anymore than 1-2 years after their current contract ends.

You're logic does have merit. I'm not disagreeing, it just doesn't seem like that is the most likely scenario to me. I will say this. If we start winning in 1-2 seasons you could be absolutely correct. If the Sedins believe there is a chance to won a cup, they will (IMO) stick around for longer.

[aGENT]

I don't get how most people view this because they echo Mirtle's sentiments.

The Canucks should WANT Lou to retire early. Look at the numbers.

If, for example, Lou retires in 2017 we would face a lower cap hit at $1.7 mil than if he retires later, albeit for longer, so it would be more manageable to accommodate. On top of that the $800k salary retention that we currently have would go away. Under this scenario we would only be taking an extra $900k penalty for 5 years. That's not a major problem even if it is not ideal.

Unless, of course, people think he can do the full pull until 2022...which is highly unlikely. The worst case scenario is that he retires with one or two years left on his deal.

~4-5 years left might be the ideal middle ground. +/- 1mil of effective penalty and only over a relatively short 4-5 years.

Agreed though, with the cap going up and the amount of salary we're bound to jettison/players we'll have on ELC's this shouldn't be a problem short of him retiring with 1-2 years left.

If that happens though, I think there'll be a team of lawyers arguing the fact the league retroactively changed rules effecting contracts they'd already approved.

[Canuck Surfer]

I don't get how most people view this because they echo Mirtle's sentiments.

The Canucks should WANT Lou to retire early. Look at the numbers.

If, for example, Lou retires in 2017 we would face a lower cap hit at $1.7 mil than if he retires later, albeit for longer, so it would be more manageable to accommodate. On top of that the $800k salary retention that we currently have would go away. Under this scenario we would only be taking an extra $900k penalty for 5 years. That's not a major problem even if it is not ideal.

Unless, of course, people think he can do the full pull until 2022...which is highly unlikely. The worst case scenario is that he retires with one or two years left on his deal.

Yes.

But unfortunately Lou is two things;

- Proud. He will probably play a fair length because his pride tells him he can.

- Greedy. He has also always manipulated things in his favour. That contract was designed to retire at 40.

Will Lou really be willing to play out the last three years?

2019/20 > $1.618 mill?

2020/21 > $1 mill

2021/22 > $1 mill

[theminister]

Yes.

But unfortunately Lou is two things;

- Proud. He will probably play a fair length because his pride tells him he can.

- Greedy. He has also always manipulated things in his favour. That contract was designed to retire at 40.

Will Lou really be willing to play out the last three years?

2019/20 > $1.618 mill?

2020/21 > $1 mill

2021/22 > $1 mill

I suppose your question would really be, under those assumptions, whether you think his pride or greed is prevalent.

I believe he is more proud and competitive than greedy.

[alfstonker]

I remember listening to Gino Odjik on the radio after we lost to Boston in 2011. He was very disappointed the twins didn't have a tough guy, with skill, playing along side them. Gino felt the twins would have brought us a couple of cups, if they had a Lucic for example. I hope we get Lucic next summer. If Gino is right, and I trust his opinion, then the twins could certainly be top line players for several more years.

Talking of Odjik, Gillis knew after 2011 what the problem was on the Sedin line and he brought Owen Nolan in to play in a pre season tryout but by that time he was past it. He was the sort of points scoring bruiser who would have complimented the Twins to a tee and would not have let anyone mess with them.

He was the type of guy who even stood up to enforcers like Odjik.

So typical of Gillis though, when Nolan decided to retire instead, he just lost focus and forgot about what the twins needed altogether. Gillis wasn't a team builder because he couldn't hold a vision.

[Alflives]

Talking of Odjik, Gillis knew after 2011 what the problem was on the Sedin line and he brought Owen Nolan in to play in a pre season tryout but by that time he was past it. He was the sort of points scoring bruiser who would have complimented the Twins to a tee and would not have let anyone mess with them.

He was the type of guy who even stood up to enforcers like Odjik.

So typical of Gillis though, when Nolan decided to retire instead, he just lost focus and forgot about what the twins needed altogether. Gillis wasn't a team builder because he couldn't hold a vision.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdUXdgx7rvg

I had forgotten the Nolan tryout. That's a good reminder. Too bad we didn't just draft Lucic, considering he played under our noses. Was that a Nonis, or a Gillis draft?

[aGENT]

I had forgotten the Nolan tryout. That's a good reminder. Too bad we didn't just draft Lucic, considering he played under our noses. Was that a Nonis, or a Gillis draft?

'I did one good thing' - Nonis

[KeslerPlaysLikeACanadian]

Gold. The summer of 2011 was the time to make a big play, new blood and a real player for the Sedins, not another moneyball flail-out (and I thought Nolan's tryout actually went okay). The only time Gillis stepped to the bat he landed us Bull Horvat. I can see why it's scary, he's still not forgiven.

[Alflives]

Gold. The summer of 2011 was the time to make a big play, new blood and a real player for the Sedins, not another moneyball flail-out (and I thought Nolan's tryout actually went okay). The only time Gillis stepped to the bat he landed us Bull Horvat. I can see why it's scary, he's still not forgiven.

Yes, getting Horvat was a very good move indeed. The Schroeder and Jensen picks, not so much.

[ABNuck]

They can and will play past 40, people seem to forget they score as much as all the other Elite players still. They individually had more points than Toews and have always ourscored him, they've been unbelievably healthy throughout their career if you look at it. Only six or seven injuries between both of them. We can still win a Cup with them now, especially with the pieces we added, and then coming in are Baertschi, Shinkaruk, Virtanen, Grenier, Boeser, Cassels, McCann, Gaunce, and Labate.

Let's be cautious when comparing the Sedins to other elite players, in particular someone like Toews (who has, as Captain Serious, led his team to 3 cups). The cautionary stat when comparing is effective production (GTG / GWG).

This area is one where the Canucks have fallen short over the past few years...that clutch player. It's one thing to be a stats leader if your stats don't mean as much overall to the team game (ie/ scoring and assisting on goals #5 and #6 in a 6-2 win). We need clutch scorers (like Kesler and Burrows were in their prime for us).

To say you'd rather have the Sedins than say Toews and Kane is foolish, even though they may outscore them pointwise. It's the important goals that win games. Not to say that the Sedins don't score important goals, I'm just saying be cautious as they may not score "as many" clutch goals as the other elite players to whom they are compared. This may also fall into the category of depth scoring (which again we have been sorely lacking recently).

This is one area of stats (clutch goals and assists) that I wish was better publicized. The data that would be most useful would be as follows:

% of overall goals/assists that are GTG/GWG

% of second assists by forwards (2nd assist was primarily introduced to boost/recognize stats by breakout defencemen ie/ breakout and stretch passing that lead to goals) that do NOT effectively contribute to the final goal sequence.

So then teams could clamour after those clutch performers, and pay them as such, when combined with overall performance.

For example I'd rather have a guy who scores 30 goals a year, 75% of them being GTG or GWG, than a guy who scores 45 goals a year and only 20% of them being meaningful and helpful.

We see this reflected in the overall stats every year (ie/ Ovi8, Iginla, Thornton etc. are amongst the leaders in point production each year but the teams they play on can't make the playoffs). It's easy to take advantage of a goalie (and subsequently the backup) when your opponent is having an off night. It's called stat-padding. The problem is, how much of your stats are padded vs. actually effective in helping your team win?

[D-Money]

When the Sedins stop placing 1st and 2nd in physical performance tests at Canucks camp, then I'll start worrying about them.

[khay]

Let's be cautious when comparing the Sedins to other elite players, in particular someone like Toews (who has, as Captain Serious, led his team to 3 cups). The cautionary stat when comparing is effective production (GTG / GWG).

This area is one where the Canucks have fallen short over the past few years...that clutch player. It's one thing to be a stats leader if your stats don't mean as much overall to the team game (ie/ scoring and assisting on goals #5 and #6 in a 6-2 win). We need clutch scorers (like Kesler and Burrows were in their prime for us).

To say you'd rather have the Sedins than say Toews and Kane is foolish, even though they may outscore them pointwise. It's the important goals that win games. Not to say that the Sedins don't score important goals, I'm just saying be cautious as they may not score "as many" clutch goals as the other elite players to whom they are compared. This may also fall into the category of depth scoring (which again we have been sorely lacking recently).

This is one area of stats (clutch goals and assists) that I wish was better publicized. The data that would be most useful would be as follows:

% of overall goals/assists that are GTG/GWG

% of second assists by forwards (2nd assist was primarily introduced to boost/recognize stats by breakout defencemen ie/ breakout and stretch passing that lead to goals) that do NOT effectively contribute to the final goal sequence.

So then teams could clamour after those clutch performers, and pay them as such, when combined with overall performance.

For example I'd rather have a guy who scores 30 goals a year, 75% of them being GTG or GWG, than a guy who scores 45 goals a year and only 20% of them being meaningful and helpful.

We see this reflected in the overall stats every year (ie/ Ovi8, Iginla, Thornton etc. are amongst the leaders in point production each year but the teams they play on can't make the playoffs). It's easy to take advantage of a goalie (and subsequently the backup) when your opponent is having an off night. It's called stat-padding. The problem is, how much of your stats are padded vs. actually effective in helping your team win?

There is already some work that is trying to answer such question as value of a goal by taking context at which the goal was scored into consideration, see for example: http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SSAC15-RP-Finalist-Assessing-the-offensive-productivity-of-NHL-players2.pdf

I understand what you mean when you say you should be careful when comparing the Sedins to Toewes and Kane. And sure I agree that Toewes and Kane seem much more clutch than the Sedins... but what if Sedins had Keith as defender and Hossa as the other forward late in the game, down by 1? And Toewes and Kane had Edler (or Ehrhoff or Salo) and Burrows (or Kesler) as the other forward?

Do Toewes and Kane look more clutch because Keith and Hossa create more opportunities for them than Edler and Burrows can for the Sedins?

For example, maybe it's the case that Toewes and Kane get 10 opportunities to tie the game late or end the game in OT, 7 of which were created by Keith and Hossa whereas the Sedins get 5 opportunities but all 5 of them were created by themselves.

I think it's fruitless to compare a pair of great players to another pair of great players. I would rather have Toewes and Kane if I also get Keith and Hossa for sure. But if I get Toewes and Kane but I get Edler and Burrows, then I'm not sure who I'd prefer... I might just prefer to keep the Sedins.

[ABNuck]

There is already some work that is trying to answer such question as value of a goal by taking context at which the goal was scored into consideration, see for example: http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/SSAC15-RP-Finalist-Assessing-the-offensive-productivity-of-NHL-players2.pdf

I understand what you mean when you say you should be careful when comparing the Sedins to Toewes and Kane. And sure I agree that Toewes and Kane seem much more clutch than the Sedins... but what if Sedins had Keith as defender and Hossa as the other forward late in the game, down by 1? And Toewes and Kane had Edler (or Ehrhoff or Salo) and Burrows (or Kesler) as the other forward?

Do Toewes and Kane look more clutch because Keith and Hossa create more opportunities for them than Edler and Burrows can for the Sedins?

For example, maybe it's the case that Toewes and Kane get 10 opportunities to tie the game late or end the game in OT, 7 of which were created by Keith and Hossa whereas the Sedins get 5 opportunities but all 5 of them were created by themselves.

I think it's fruitless to compare a pair of great players to another pair of great players. I would rather have Toewes and Kane if I also get Keith and Hossa for sure. But if I get Toewes and Kane but I get Edler and Burrows, then I'm not sure who I'd prefer... I might just prefer to keep the Sedins.

Excellent point, and that's why I'd love to see those expanded stats. It's probably why alot of fans get upset when they don't understand why a certain player gets released as a F/A, or traded for a bag of pucks. Management knows more than we do, and they've got the stats to back up their decisions.