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Goal prediction and how I manage to come to the Canuck placing anywhere between 2-6 in conference


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Assuming this is the line up. Make your Goal predictions.

Right wingers

G

Vrbata 30

Burrows 22

Hansen 15

Dorsett 9

Virtanen 14 If he is ready for NHL (a whole lot more if he gets to play with Sedins)

Left wingers

D.Sedin 20

Higgins 17

Prust 9

Baertschi 14

Kenins 7

Center

H.Sedin 18

Sutter 26

Horvat 20

Vey 10

Defence

Edler 12

Tanev 5

Hamuis 8

Weber 12

Sbisa 8

Bartkowski 3

Corrado 3

Tell me what you think. If you disagree, please tell me why; but most importantly post your predictions.

If you agree with this it means total of 282 goals or 3.44 goals per game.

Lets put this in perspective now: If my prediction is 36 goals less that would mean 246 goals = 3 goals per game. If you disagree with me please tell me by how much and if you can get that below 246 goals or less then 3 goals per game. If we can manage anywhere near 3 goals a game, we should not only manage to get into the playoffs but I would argue place any where from 2-6 in our conference.

If this is unreasonable please explain why.

For you grammar police the title should be Canucks.

How I get to my predictions: Average career goals by season after factoring out injury seasons ,worst and best season, and factor in last season totals at .666 if player wasn't injured or last season gets factored in at .500 if player was injured. So D.Sedins goal total is 20 last season at .666 and his career season total at .333 minus injury season 09-10 and minus his lowest and highest goal totals. The .666 counters for decline in his play and .333 a counts for career #s his range or margin of error is plus or minus 3.

If you want to know where the .666 and the .333 comes from take advance probability courses in math. Correct 19 out of 20 times with a margin of error of + -3.

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The average western conference GAA last year was around 2.7 so we would need to have above average performances against some top goalies on an almost nightly basis.

Also the top goal scoring team in the NHL last year was T-Bay with 262 goals... so for us to get 282 would literally be unbelievable.

More likely we end up with about 2.75-2.9 GPG and around 225-245 Goals

Total = 241 Goals

Right wingers = 75G

G

Vrbata 27

Burrows 16

Hansen 14

Dorsett 7

Virtanen 11 If he is ready for NHL (a hole lot more if he gets to play with Sedins)

Left wingers = 61G

D.Sedin 18

Higgins 15

Prust 4

Baertschi 15

Kenins 9

Centre = 68G

H.Sedin 14

Sutter 23

Horvat 19

Vey 12

Defence = 37G

Edler 10

Tanev 4

Hamuis 4

Weber 9

Sbisa 5

Bartkowski 1

Corrado 4

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The average western conference GAA last year was around 2.4 so we would need to have above average performances against some top goalies on an almost nightly basis.

Also the top goal scoring team in the NHL last year was T-Bay with 262 goals... so for us to get 282 would literally be unbelievable.

More likely we end up with about 2.75-2.9 GPG and around 225-245 Goals

Please show work.

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The only thing I really disagree with is your goal predictions for the defensemen. I would say:

Edler: 9

Tanev: 4

Hamhuis: 4

Weber: 8

Sbisa: 2

Corrado: 3

Bartkowski:0

Still only 21 less. 282-21= 261=3.18 GPG

I believe 30 goals from any defence is really low when you have the forward group we have.

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Higgins 17 goals is too high, unless Willie decides he gets top 6 minutes again, which come to think of it is still too high.

Sbisa and Hammer at 8 goals each is wayy too high. Hammer has like 3 goals in last 2 years, and Sbisa scored a few. They would have to be wearing horseshoes around their necks throughout the year to get 16 goals from these two.

Other than that, not too shabby eh :frantic:

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The average western conference GAA last year was around 2.4 so we would need to have above average performances against some top goalies on an almost nightly basis.

Also the top goal scoring team in the NHL last year was T-Bay with 262 goals... so for us to get 282 would literally be unbelievable.

More likely we end up with about 2.75-2.9 GPG and around 225-245 Goals

Total = 241 Goals

Right wingers = 75G

G

Vrbata 27

Burrows 16

Hansen 14

Dorsett 7

Virtanen 11 If he is ready for NHL (a hole lot more if he gets to play with Sedins)

Left wingers = 61G

D.Sedin 18

Higgins 15

Prust 4

Baertschi 15

Kenins 9

Centre = 68G

H.Sedin 14

Sutter 23

Horvat 19

Vey 12

Defence = 37G

Edler 10

Tanev 4

Hamuis 4

Weber 9

Sbisa 5

Bartkowski 1

Corrado 4

2.94 GPG is still very close to 3 per game funny 5 more and it would have been 3.

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Your estimation is extremely optimistic. The Buffalo Sabres have the highest goals-per-game in the last decade, which was in 2005-06 with a 3.42 goals-per-game. To expect that we'll surpass that after gutting much of our core is unrealistic.

Individually, your numbers look optimistic, albeit somewhat feasible. Where the feasibility breaks down is when you have all our players having above-average seasons in the same year. Is it possible? Yes. But highly improbable.

I'd say 2.4-2.7 is quite reasonable. That translates to 197-221 goals. For reference, we had 191 goals in 2013-14 with Torts and 236 goals last year.

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2.94 GPG is still very close to 3 per game funny 5 more and it would have been 3.

Look I'm not here to say your completely wrong, but giving a range of 246 - 282 isn't exactly going out on a limb in terms of accuracy. I'm just saying based on last years data, and the fact there are some better teams, better goalies, and better players in the west this year putting us 20 goals ahead of Tampa Bays pace is probably not realistic. Sure we could score 246 if Horvat has a great year, and Sutter nets 20 +, but more than likely we will end up with less than last year.

We were also a top 5 shooting percentage, and shot generation team last year, and that is probably due to regress a little. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-shooting-percentage/2014/has that info

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Your estimation is extremely optimistic. The Buffalo Sabres have the highest goals-per-game in the last decade, which was in 2005-06 with a 3.42 goals-per-game. To expect that we'll surpass that after gutting much of our core is unrealistic.

Individually, your numbers look optimistic, albeit somewhat feasible. Where the feasibility breaks down is when you have all our players having above-average seasons in the same year. Is it possible? Yes. But highly improbable.

I'd say 2.4-2.7 is quite reasonable. That translates to 197-221 goals. For reference, we had 191 goals in 2013-14 with Torts and 236 goals last year.

Pleas show work. ( your prediction) Can't really disagree with you until you show me what you think.

But I will give you this the only thing that blows my predictions out of the water is injuries. Goals can't be replaced my call-ups.

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Look I'm not here to say your completely wrong, but giving a range of 246 - 282 isn't exactly going out on a limb in terms of accuracy. I'm just saying based on last years data, and the fact there are some better teams, better goalies, and better players in the west this year putting us 20 goals ahead of Tampa Bays pace is probably not realistic. Sure we could score 246 if Horvat has a great year, and Sutter nets 20 +, but more than likely we will end up with less than last year.

We were also a top 5 shooting percentage, and shot generation team last year, and that is probably due to regress a little. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-shooting-percentage/2014/has that info

It is called money ball boys. Linden-Benning in my opinion are trying to balance the scoring between players to minimize the injury problem and to balance every line. That's why we see a 5 mill dollar forth line.

This is way Boston got rid of Lucic (got something before he was going to get over paid)

Same goes with Hamilton, they could have easily kept one of these guys under the cap but Boston plays money ball with the best of them.

Also way Laurence Gilman became redundant, Cause Benning knows what he is doing.

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Pleas show work. ( your prediction) Can't really disagree with you until you show me what you think.

But I will give you this the only thing that blows my predictions out of the water is injuries. Goals can't be replaced my call-ups.

Well to get my prediction of 2.4-2.7 goals per game, I simply looked at this year and last year's numbers. I figured that we wouldn't reach last year's numbers (2.88 gpg), but I figured we'd still do a bit better than the Torts year (2.33 gpg).

However, I figure you want each players' numbers, so I'll whip something up for you.

Right wing - 67 goals

G

Vrbata 27

Burrows 18

Hansen 15

Dorsett 6

Virtanen 1 - I suspect he'll spend the year in Utica with a short call-up

Left wing - 52 goals

D. Sedin 20

Higgins 13

Prust 4

Baertschi 14

Kenins 1 - Gets sent down to Utica without ample room for him

Center - 60 goals

H. Sedin 15

Sutter 18

Horvat 19

Vey 8 - Crammed centre position forces Vey to work with little minutes

Defence - 25 goals

Edler 9

Tanev 3

Hamhuis 4

Weber 5

Sbisa 2

Bartkowski 1

Corrado 1

Total of 204 goals, 2.49 goals-per-game.

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