Arrow 1983 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Assuming this is the line up. Make your Goal predictions. Right wingers G Vrbata 30 Burrows 22 Hansen 15 Dorsett 9 Virtanen 14 If he is ready for NHL (a whole lot more if he gets to play with Sedins) Left wingers D.Sedin 20 Higgins 17 Prust 9 Baertschi 14 Kenins 7 Center H.Sedin 18 Sutter 26 Horvat 20 Vey 10 Defence Edler 12 Tanev 5 Hamuis 8 Weber 12 Sbisa 8 Bartkowski 3 Corrado 3 Tell me what you think. If you disagree, please tell me why; but most importantly post your predictions. If you agree with this it means total of 282 goals or 3.44 goals per game. Lets put this in perspective now: If my prediction is 36 goals less that would mean 246 goals = 3 goals per game. If you disagree with me please tell me by how much and if you can get that below 246 goals or less then 3 goals per game. If we can manage anywhere near 3 goals a game, we should not only manage to get into the playoffs but I would argue place any where from 2-6 in our conference. If this is unreasonable please explain why. For you grammar police the title should be Canucks. How I get to my predictions: Average career goals by season after factoring out injury seasons ,worst and best season, and factor in last season totals at .666 if player wasn't injured or last season gets factored in at .500 if player was injured. So D.Sedins goal total is 20 last season at .666 and his career season total at .333 minus injury season 09-10 and minus his lowest and highest goal totals. The .666 counters for decline in his play and .333 a counts for career #s his range or margin of error is plus or minus 3. If you want to know where the .666 and the .333 comes from take advance probability courses in math. Correct 19 out of 20 times with a margin of error of + -3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 Horvat had 13 in his first season and Virtanen is more of a goal scorer. That is where Virtanen's prediction comes from. If Virtanen does not play this season others will get more mins to boast their totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gyllenhaal Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Matt Bartkowski hasn't scored a goal in his entire 131 game NHL career. I don't expect that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 Matt Bartkowski hasn't scored a goal in his entire 131 game NHL career. I don't expect that to change. I am doing really well if this is the only disagreement so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kazmanian Devil Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I really admire your spacing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gyllenhaal Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I am doing really well if this is the only disagreement so far. The only thing I really disagree with is your goal predictions for the defensemen. I would say: Edler: 9 Tanev: 4 Hamhuis: 4 Weber: 8 Sbisa: 2 Corrado: 3 Bartkowski:0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derp... Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 The average western conference GAA last year was around 2.7 so we would need to have above average performances against some top goalies on an almost nightly basis. Also the top goal scoring team in the NHL last year was T-Bay with 262 goals... so for us to get 282 would literally be unbelievable. More likely we end up with about 2.75-2.9 GPG and around 225-245 Goals Total = 241 Goals Right wingers = 75G G Vrbata 27 Burrows 16 Hansen 14 Dorsett 7 Virtanen 11 If he is ready for NHL (a hole lot more if he gets to play with Sedins) Left wingers = 61G D.Sedin 18 Higgins 15 Prust 4 Baertschi 15 Kenins 9 Centre = 68G H.Sedin 14 Sutter 23 Horvat 19 Vey 12 Defence = 37G Edler 10 Tanev 4 Hamuis 4 Weber 9 Sbisa 5 Bartkowski 1 Corrado 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 The average western conference GAA last year was around 2.4 so we would need to have above average performances against some top goalies on an almost nightly basis. Also the top goal scoring team in the NHL last year was T-Bay with 262 goals... so for us to get 282 would literally be unbelievable. More likely we end up with about 2.75-2.9 GPG and around 225-245 Goals Please show work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 The only thing I really disagree with is your goal predictions for the defensemen. I would say: Edler: 9 Tanev: 4 Hamhuis: 4 Weber: 8 Sbisa: 2 Corrado: 3 Bartkowski:0 Still only 21 less. 282-21= 261=3.18 GPG I believe 30 goals from any defence is really low when you have the forward group we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintPatrick33 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Higgins 17 goals is too high, unless Willie decides he gets top 6 minutes again, which come to think of it is still too high. Sbisa and Hammer at 8 goals each is wayy too high. Hammer has like 3 goals in last 2 years, and Sbisa scored a few. They would have to be wearing horseshoes around their necks throughout the year to get 16 goals from these two. Other than that, not too shabby eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 The average western conference GAA last year was around 2.4 so we would need to have above average performances against some top goalies on an almost nightly basis. Also the top goal scoring team in the NHL last year was T-Bay with 262 goals... so for us to get 282 would literally be unbelievable. More likely we end up with about 2.75-2.9 GPG and around 225-245 Goals Total = 241 Goals Right wingers = 75G G Vrbata 27 Burrows 16 Hansen 14 Dorsett 7 Virtanen 11 If he is ready for NHL (a hole lot more if he gets to play with Sedins) Left wingers = 61G D.Sedin 18 Higgins 15 Prust 4 Baertschi 15 Kenins 9 Centre = 68G H.Sedin 14 Sutter 23 Horvat 19 Vey 12 Defence = 37G Edler 10 Tanev 4 Hamuis 4 Weber 9 Sbisa 5 Bartkowski 1 Corrado 4 2.94 GPG is still very close to 3 per game funny 5 more and it would have been 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derp... Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Please show work. You could have easily looked up the work before making the post no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-AJ- Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Your estimation is extremely optimistic. The Buffalo Sabres have the highest goals-per-game in the last decade, which was in 2005-06 with a 3.42 goals-per-game. To expect that we'll surpass that after gutting much of our core is unrealistic. Individually, your numbers look optimistic, albeit somewhat feasible. Where the feasibility breaks down is when you have all our players having above-average seasons in the same year. Is it possible? Yes. But highly improbable. I'd say 2.4-2.7 is quite reasonable. That translates to 197-221 goals. For reference, we had 191 goals in 2013-14 with Torts and 236 goals last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derp... Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 2.94 GPG is still very close to 3 per game funny 5 more and it would have been 3. Look I'm not here to say your completely wrong, but giving a range of 246 - 282 isn't exactly going out on a limb in terms of accuracy. I'm just saying based on last years data, and the fact there are some better teams, better goalies, and better players in the west this year putting us 20 goals ahead of Tampa Bays pace is probably not realistic. Sure we could score 246 if Horvat has a great year, and Sutter nets 20 +, but more than likely we will end up with less than last year. We were also a top 5 shooting percentage, and shot generation team last year, and that is probably due to regress a little. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-shooting-percentage/2014/has that info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 Your estimation is extremely optimistic. The Buffalo Sabres have the highest goals-per-game in the last decade, which was in 2005-06 with a 3.42 goals-per-game. To expect that we'll surpass that after gutting much of our core is unrealistic. Individually, your numbers look optimistic, albeit somewhat feasible. Where the feasibility breaks down is when you have all our players having above-average seasons in the same year. Is it possible? Yes. But highly improbable. I'd say 2.4-2.7 is quite reasonable. That translates to 197-221 goals. For reference, we had 191 goals in 2013-14 with Torts and 236 goals last year. Pleas show work. ( your prediction) Can't really disagree with you until you show me what you think. But I will give you this the only thing that blows my predictions out of the water is injuries. Goals can't be replaced my call-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 Look I'm not here to say your completely wrong, but giving a range of 246 - 282 isn't exactly going out on a limb in terms of accuracy. I'm just saying based on last years data, and the fact there are some better teams, better goalies, and better players in the west this year putting us 20 goals ahead of Tampa Bays pace is probably not realistic. Sure we could score 246 if Horvat has a great year, and Sutter nets 20 +, but more than likely we will end up with less than last year. We were also a top 5 shooting percentage, and shot generation team last year, and that is probably due to regress a little. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-shooting-percentage/2014/has that info It is called money ball boys. Linden-Benning in my opinion are trying to balance the scoring between players to minimize the injury problem and to balance every line. That's why we see a 5 mill dollar forth line. This is way Boston got rid of Lucic (got something before he was going to get over paid) Same goes with Hamilton, they could have easily kept one of these guys under the cap but Boston plays money ball with the best of them. Also way Laurence Gilman became redundant, Cause Benning knows what he is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 You could have easily looked up the work before making the post no? When I said show work I meant your prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crackers Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Please show work. Wow so confrontational, Arrow 1983! Gets me excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 Wow so confrontational, Arrow 1983! Gets me excited! I am a mathematician what can I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-AJ- Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Pleas show work. ( your prediction) Can't really disagree with you until you show me what you think. But I will give you this the only thing that blows my predictions out of the water is injuries. Goals can't be replaced my call-ups. Well to get my prediction of 2.4-2.7 goals per game, I simply looked at this year and last year's numbers. I figured that we wouldn't reach last year's numbers (2.88 gpg), but I figured we'd still do a bit better than the Torts year (2.33 gpg). However, I figure you want each players' numbers, so I'll whip something up for you. Right wing - 67 goals G Vrbata 27 Burrows 18 Hansen 15 Dorsett 6 Virtanen 1 - I suspect he'll spend the year in Utica with a short call-up Left wing - 52 goals D. Sedin 20 Higgins 13 Prust 4 Baertschi 14 Kenins 1 - Gets sent down to Utica without ample room for him Center - 60 goals H. Sedin 15 Sutter 18 Horvat 19 Vey 8 - Crammed centre position forces Vey to work with little minutes Defence - 25 goals Edler 9 Tanev 3 Hamhuis 4 Weber 5 Sbisa 2 Bartkowski 1 Corrado 1 Total of 204 goals, 2.49 goals-per-game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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