Investing in the stock market - Discussion

[AriGold2.0]

1 hour ago, Lancaster said:

More movement on CCIV... but still no news....

I just hope the attached image will age well....

Nada Fing BOOM!! 
 

Bigger then any trade I’ve done..

 

That’s a nice way to send off into the long weekend

[Lancaster]

Just now, AriGold2.0 said:

Nada Fing BOOM!! 
 

Bigger then any trade I’ve done..

 

That’s a nice way to send off into the long weekend

But all the wild swings... I almost dread waking up the next trading day after a big gain... always expecting the rug to be pulled under.

 

Also, I just noticed your profile picture... 

[Sp3nny]

1 minute ago, Lancaster said:

But all the wild swings... I almost dread waking up the next trading day after a big gain... always expecting the rug to be pulled under.

 

Also, I just noticed your profile picture... 

I feel the same way, and I'm in with 500 warrants at $5 lol. I can't imagine seeing some of the red days on your screen...

[Down by the River]

Did not know the markets were closed Monday. 

[I.Am.Ironman]

4 hours ago, CBH1926 said:

Who’s in PLTR, how many shares and what is your avg. price?

100 shares, 75 shares at $9.04 or something, 25 shares at 23. Soo like $13 average or something?

[nuckin_futz]

On 2/10/2021 at 8:09 AM, Boudrias said:

World Outlook Conference was advocating value stocks and commodities and cash. Owning value won’t prevent their going down but the cash flow likely stands up. Still at 20% gold/silver. I ‘m to old for BITCOIN. Sounds like a ponsi scheme to me. 

 

So so much volatility in markets I can understand why people are trading on that. I don’t trust my research data enough to be involved.  

Timing is everything. When markets turn down there will be serious shortage of buyers and orders will be hard to fill. 

This is the problem with busting all the shorts. You saw it with GME, AMC all the marijuana plays etc. When all the shorts are all destroyed there is no one bidding when the stock collapses and the longs get destroyed. I don't get the hatred for short sellers. They provide a valuable service and provide balance to markets. On those big red days who do people think is on the bid slowing the fall?

 

As for the market as a whole the put/call ratio is around a 30 year low. If this market really started coming down there would be few bids to hit.

 

 

[KoreanHockeyFan]

4 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

This is the problem with busting all the shorts. You saw it with GME, AMC all the marijuana plays etc. When all the shorts are all destroyed there is no one bidding when the stock collapses and the longs get destroyed. I don't get the hatred for short sellers. They provide a valuable service and provide balance to markets. On those big red days who do people think is on the bid slowing the fall?

 

As for the market as a whole the put/call ratio is around a 30 year low. If this market really started coming down there would be few bids to hit.

 

 

I've been noticing this as well...a lot of signals...

[skolozsy2]

13 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

This is the problem with busting all the shorts. You saw it with GME, AMC all the marijuana plays etc. When all the shorts are all destroyed there is no one bidding when the stock collapses and the longs get destroyed. I don't get the hatred for short sellers. They provide a valuable service and provide balance to markets. On those big red days who do people think is on the bid slowing the fall?

 

As for the market as a whole the put/call ratio is around a 30 year low. If this market really started coming down there would be few bids to hit.

 

 

I think you make some very good points on the necessity of short sellers as a way of providing stability and balance to the market.  But I also think short sellers bring a lot of the negativity onto themselves with their questionable tactics of making a stock fall; ladder attacks, fake lawsuits, phony allegations, etc...

[I.Am.Ironman]

19 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

This is the problem with busting all the shorts. You saw it with GME, AMC all the marijuana plays etc. When all the shorts are all destroyed there is no one bidding when the stock collapses and the longs get destroyed. I don't get the hatred for short sellers. They provide a valuable service and provide balance to markets. On those big red days who do people think is on the bid slowing the fall?

 

As for the market as a whole the put/call ratio is around a 30 year low. If this market really started coming down there would be few bids to hit.

 

 

Can you expand on this? There are approx 50% more index put options than call options, over 2x as many equity calls than puts. So what metric is most valuable? I got the info from https://markets.cboe.com/us/options/market_statistics/daily/

 

[nuckin_futz]

9 hours ago, skolozsy2 said:

I think you make some very good points on the necessity of short sellers as a way of providing stability and balance to the market.  But I also think short sellers bring a lot of the negativity onto themselves with their questionable tactics of making a stock fall; ladder attacks, fake lawsuits, phony allegations, etc...

Well there are some very vocal shorts (Chanos, Ackman etc). Just as there are some very vocal longs. People go on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox all day long touting the stuff they are long. No one has a problem with that.

 

As for phony fraudulent behaviour this happens more with longs. For example, look at Chamath Pali-whatever. Takes Clover Health public via his SPAC without disclosing they are under an active DOJ investigation. That's basically fraud. How scummy is that?

 

2 hours ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

Can you expand on this? There are approx 50% more index put options than call options, over 2x as many equity calls than puts. So what metric is most valuable? I got the info from https://markets.cboe.com/us/options/market_statistics/daily/

 

The Index put options are mainly used as a means of hedging a long portfolio. The equity options are used as a form of leveraged betting. When you have something like AMC which isn't in any significant index, the only way to properly hedge a long equity position is with puts. As you can see from the very lopsided Equity Put/Call ratio no one is bothering to do that in any significant way in practically any stock.

 

So when a market is heavily long without much protection it's a pretty precarious situation. Like standing on top of a mountain hoping the storm doesn't roll in. The market is relying heavily on it's Sherpa named Jerome.

[I.Am.Ironman]

2 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

The Index put options are mainly used as a means of hedging a long portfolio. The equity options are used as a form of leveraged betting. When you have something like AMC which isn't in any significant index, the only way to properly hedge a long equity position is with puts. As you can see from the very lopsided Equity Put/Call ratio no one is bothering to do that in any significant way in practically any stock.

 

So when a market is heavily long without much protection it's a pretty precarious situation. Like standing on top of a mountain hoping the storm doesn't roll in. The market is relying heavily on it's Sherpa named Jerome.

Thanks. Now I suppose the question is, how likely is it that Sherpa Jerome increases rates? From the sources I have researched, including the Fed itself, rates are unlikely to increase in the next year or two. There is also the stimulus package, but congress actually needs to put their adult hats on for that one. Given the likelihood of the fed keeping rates low and an impending stimulus package, could that not explain the equity put/call ratio?

[nuckin_futz]

3 hours ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

Thanks. Now I suppose the question is, how likely is it that Sherpa Jerome increases rates? From the sources I have researched, including the Fed itself, rates are unlikely to increase in the next year or two. There is also the stimulus package, but congress actually needs to put their adult hats on for that one. Given the likelihood of the fed keeping rates low and an impending stimulus package, could that not explain the equity put/call ratio?

How likely is Jerome to raise rates? Not likely at all if he has his way. However, what you're failing to factor into the equation is the market forcing his hand. You are correct the Fed's stance on rates and stimulus is what's driving the equity parade. People are (and have been since the pandemic lows) piling into equities (in many cases with leverage) as a nearly risk free trade because the Fed has their back.

 

What happens if the market breaks the Fed's back? In the early 80's inflation was so out of control the Fed was forced to jack rates to above 20% to break inflation. Imagine a housing market with 20% mortgage rates. IMO The Fed is playing a very dangerous game with it's money printing and equity pumping. You can do that for a short while but global central banks see this as a new way of doing business. There will eventually be a big price to pay for this financial tomfoolery. If they lose control of inflation it could jump start the reckoning.

 

Below is a chart of TLT. This is an ETF representing the 10yr US Treasury Bill. It's in a 6 month down trend and the drop has been accelerating since the beginning of the year. This has seen corresponding rates on the 10yr hitting a yield of 1.21% for the first time since March 2021.

 

 

 

The yield on the 30yr has popped above 2% for the first time since the pandemic lows. Rates on the British 10yr GILT have been surging. Canadian rates are doing the same thing.

 

It totally explains the equity put/call ratio. But as most people know the smart money is in the bond market. The dumb money is in the equity market. I'd be listening to the bond market for clues.

Edited February 15, 2021 by nuckin_futz

[KoreanHockeyFan]

29 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

How likely is Jerome to raise rates? Not likely at all if he has his way. However, what you're failing to factor into the equation is the market forcing his hand. You are correct the Fed's stance on rates and stimulus is what's driving the equity parade. People are (and have been since the pandemic lows) piling into equities (in many cases with leverage) as a nearly risk free trade because the Fed has their back.

 

What happens if the market breaks the Fed's back? In the early 80's inflation was so out of control the Fed was forced to jack rates to above 20% to break inflation. Imagine a housing market with 20% mortgage rates. IMO The Fed is playing a very dangerous game with it's money printing and equity pumping. You can do that for a shot while but global central banks see this as a new way of doing business. There will eventually be a big price to pay for this financial tomfoolery. If they lose control of inflation it could jump start the reckoning.

 

Below is a chart of TLT. This is an ETF representing the 10yr US Treasury Bill. It's in a 6 month down trend and the drop has been accelerating since the beginning of the year. This has seen corresponding rates on the 10yr hitting a yield of 1.21% for the first time since March 2021.

 

 

 

The yield on the 30yr has popped above 2% for the first time since the pandemic lows. Rates on the British 10yr GILT have been surging. Canadian rates are doing the same thing.

 

It totally explains the equity put/call ratio. But as most people know the smart money is in the bond market. The dumb money is in the equity market. I'd be listening to the bond market for clues.

Thanks, really appreciate this. 

 

You've been clearing up concepts I've been trying decode in my brain for the past few weeks. 

[Warhippy]

58 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

How likely is Jerome to raise rates? Not likely at all if he has his way. However, what you're failing to factor into the equation is the market forcing his hand. You are correct the Fed's stance on rates and stimulus is what's driving the equity parade. People are (and have been since the pandemic lows) piling into equities (in many cases with leverage) as a nearly risk free trade because the Fed has their back.

 

What happens if the market breaks the Fed's back? In the early 80's inflation was so out of control the Fed was forced to jack rates to above 20% to break inflation. Imagine a housing market with 20% mortgage rates. IMO The Fed is playing a very dangerous game with it's money printing and equity pumping. You can do that for a shot while but global central banks see this as a new way of doing business. There will eventually be a big price to pay for this financial tomfoolery. If they lose control of inflation it could jump start the reckoning.

 

Below is a chart of TLT. This is an ETF representing the 10yr US Treasury Bill. It's in a 6 month down trend and the drop has been accelerating since the beginning of the year. This has seen corresponding rates on the 10yr hitting a yield of 1.21% for the first time since March 2021.

 

 

 

The yield on the 30yr has popped above 2% for the first time since the pandemic lows. Rates on the British 10yr GILT have been surging. Canadian rates are doing the same thing.

 

It totally explains the equity put/call ratio. But as most people know the smart money is in the bond market. The dumb money is in the equity market. I'd be listening to the bond market for clues.

You sir are a friggin gem <3 

[Boudrias]

16 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

How likely is Jerome to raise rates? Not likely at all if he has his way. However, what you're failing to factor into the equation is the market forcing his hand. You are correct the Fed's stance on rates and stimulus is what's driving the equity parade. People are (and have been since the pandemic lows) piling into equities (in many cases with leverage) as a nearly risk free trade because the Fed has their back.

 

What happens if the market breaks the Fed's back? In the early 80's inflation was so out of control the Fed was forced to jack rates to above 20% to break inflation. Imagine a housing market with 20% mortgage rates. IMO The Fed is playing a very dangerous game with it's money printing and equity pumping. You can do that for a short while but global central banks see this as a new way of doing business. There will eventually be a big price to pay for this financial tomfoolery. If they lose control of inflation it could jump start the reckoning.

 

Below is a chart of TLT. This is an ETF representing the 10yr US Treasury Bill. It's in a 6 month down trend and the drop has been accelerating since the beginning of the year. This has seen corresponding rates on the 10yr hitting a yield of 1.21% for the first time since March 2021.

 

 

 

The yield on the 30yr has popped above 2% for the first time since the pandemic lows. Rates on the British 10yr GILT have been surging. Canadian rates are doing the same thing.

 

It totally explains the equity put/call ratio. But as most people know the smart money is in the bond market. The dumb money is in the equity market. I'd be listening to the bond market for clues.

If the Fed continues their QE at what point does the market hiccup. The FED is buying their own bonds and creating liquidity issues for short term lenders. No? If there are no short term debt instruments to use for security in transactions won't rates go up to reflect increased risk? This all works until it doesn't. If the market demands higher rates to cover risk it is a condemnation of QE, no? Loss of confidence is the real threat. 

[Mikey2Dope]

On 2/9/2021 at 9:24 AM, NucksPatsFan said:

If you can hold it you'll be rewarded. Rupert plan production started, California launching soon, new distributors, etc. Next earnings report will show big growth, but guidance will also demonstrate how big 2021 will be. 

 

If you need the money, never bad to take profit

 

On 2/9/2021 at 9:49 PM, GLASSJAW said:

 

i know some people who are in the know here, and the future is bright -- whatever that means for short term stock prices, i have no idea (edit: to clarify, I mean long term future is bright)

 

this company has a big future. as more people stop eating like savages, plant-based products will need to sell themselves and this company has some amazing products. the fact that they just bought Cultured Nut was a great move. strongly encourage anyone around victoria to give them a try

 

On 2/11/2021 at 12:37 AM, filthycanuck said:

Definetly will like NucksPats mentioned, both factories are coming on line this year. I've been in since $1.35 ish and have quite a bit of shares and not remotely thinking of selling. Im not sure if its going to take it to the moon, but it will go to space I can tell you that much

Thanks for the info everybody. I think I'll stay the course on this one as the future looks pretty bright for the company.

 

I'm relatively new to stocks so trying to figure when to to hold, when to sell and when to hold but take some earnings has been the toughest lesson so far.

[kingofsurrey]

[Warhippy]

For fun just threw $400 at HCMC or the Healthy Choices Management Co.

 

Food, diet plan and fitness based company.  Literally trading at $.003 per shared USD.  But loads of chatter and using throw away on it from a previous sale.

 

I'll hold until it doubles.  These things are the ridiculous dad based crap like monat and stuff that flash in and out but can make a bit of $

[nuckin_futz]

Pretty good article about the rebound in oil prices...............

 

Everything that's happened in the oil market is wildly misunderstood

Mon 15 Feb 2021 15:13:39 GMT

 

WTI above $60. How did we get here and what's coming next

 

I've been writing about the bullish setup for oil in months but not even the biggest bull could have predicted a return to $60 WTI so quickly.

 

The return to $35-40 in October was impressive but at those prices, oil companies still weren't making money and OPEC was still deeply unhappy so there was some kind of balance. What's been far more impressive is the run to $60 from $37 on US election night.

 

It's a tough one to explain. That rally has come even with major lockdowns in much of the consuming world. A big reason is that OPEC held the line in December. It's also because people have learned to live with the pandemic and non-producers are showing some restraint.

 

In the bigger picture, the oil industry is suddenly starved of capital. Part of that is the shale bust, which is something I've been writing about for two years. The only source of production growth in the world in the past 8 or so years is shale but it was generally a scam. Cheap money flooded in on fanciful projections about $20 breakevens and low decline rates. Even in 2019 at $55-$60 oil, few in the shale were making money. The tide was going out before the pandemic and swamped it afterwards.

 

Easy money is now everywhere yet no one is offering loans to oil companies unless they have a proven track record of generating free cash flow. Meanwhile, all the money that went into shale killed conventional economics in the rest of the world and investment in long-cycle projects is on life support.

 

In short, cheap US oil subsidized by naive Wall Street money flooded the world with oil and wrecked the economics of energy in the rest of the world, and eventually ate itself as well. Then the pandemic hit.

 

The result is a oil bust compounded by a lack of capital or a will to invest anywhere else, lest Wall Street incinerate a few hundred billion more in shale. At the same time, ESG is starving profitable oil companies of capital and compressing multiples.

 

It was a perfect storm.

 

What's next?

 

Oil companies now have no interest in growing production or investing beyond keeping production flat. Occasionally some producer will increase its drilling budget and the share price promptly tumbles -- message received.

 

So this is all leading to an obvious conclusion that I've been writing about for months: There isn't going to be enough oil.

 

Now don't get me wrong, an energy transition is coming but there is a huge mismatch in the timelines.

Even Elon Musk on the weekend talked about the important role of fossil fuels with Joe Rogan while advocating for carbon tax.

 

"By the way, I am actually not in favor of like demonizing the oil and gas industry. Because we can't just like stop instantaneously and not have oil and gas. We'll like die of starvation basically. "We're going to need to burn fossil fuels for a long time, the question is just at what rate do we move to a sustainable energy future?"

This isn't a consensus view yet but it's quickly coming. Two heavyweights in the past week have stepped up and called out the problem.

 

The first was Goldman Sach's Jeff Currie, who called the bull market in the early 2000s.

 

"I want to be long oil and hang on for the ride," Currie said in an interview with S&P Global Platts on Feb. 5, warning "there is a lot of upside here."

"Is it back to $150/b? I don't know... as it is a macro repricing we are talking about and everything needs to reprice."

The other is JPMorgan and Marko Kolanovic, who said Friday that oil and commodities appear to be entering a supercycle.

"We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started," the JPMorgan analysts said in their note. "The tide on yields and inflation is turning."

"We believe that the last supercycle peaked in 2008 (after 12 years of expansion), bottomed in 2020 (after a 12-year contraction) and that we likely entered an upswing phase of a new commodity supercycle."

 

As always, the timing here is key.

 

I've been in this trade for awhile and everyone hated it. Suddenly though, they love it and are recognizing that oil companies are wildly undervalued.

 

The problem is that oil demand is still depressed. The speed of this oil rally to $60 doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

The cold weather in the US is causing a bit of havoc, particularly in natural gas, and people are going to be driving and flying a lot in the year ahead but we're talking about oil for delivery in March at $60.

 

At the same time, there's nothing technical standing in the way of a return to $65 and even with the Goldman and JPM calls, I don't sense much sudden enthusiasm for crude outside of the oil community.

 

 

After that, it might be back down to $53-54. The market is going to be scared of OPEC in March. I don't know what they're going to do. Right now they say there are no plans to change course and why would you with the success you've had?

 

In the bigger picture, they'll eventually bring production back online but in 2-3 years, even OPEC+ pumping flat out with Iran returning to the market won't be enough to offset the combination of declines elsewhere, producer discipline and demand growth.

 

The trade to make isn't oil itself, it's oil companies, CAD, NOK (Norwegian Kroner) and RUB (Russian Ruble).

 

And right on cue, USD/CAD is threatening the 2021 low. I've been writing about CAD/JPY longs for a couple weeks and that's an even better place to be. 90?

 

Edited February 15, 2021 by nuckin_futz

[I.Am.Ironman]

23 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

For fun just threw $400 at HCMC or the Healthy Choices Management Co.

 

Food, diet plan and fitness based company.  Literally trading at $.003 per shared USD.  But loads of chatter and using throw away on it from a previous sale.

 

I'll hold until it doubles.  These things are the ridiculous dad based crap like monat and stuff that flash in and out but can make a bit of $

I've seen some online chatter about that as well.. Thing is, if we are talking about it now on a non trading day, with it already trending on social media etc it will prob double before market open lol