Investing in the stock market - Discussion

[Duodenum]

3 hours ago, Down by the River said:

Especially for those with more experience investing, I'm curious to know what you define as a 'success'. Like, if a TFSA can get you maybe 5-7% returns over the course of a year, how much more do you need to earn to make it worthwhile to develop and implement your own investment strategy. For example, is there a place of purgatory where you made more than you would have if you placed your $ in a TFSA, but the amount you made was not worth the time it took to make it?

20% per month is my goal. 

[Putgolzin]

3 hours ago, Down by the River said:

Especially for those with more experience investing, I'm curious to know what you define as a 'success'. Like, if a TFSA can get you maybe 5-7% returns over the course of a year, how much more do you need to earn to make it worthwhile to develop and implement your own investment strategy. For example, is there a place of purgatory where you made more than you would have if you placed your $ in a TFSA, but the amount you made was not worth the time it took to make it?

Again, I’m super new at this so I probably shouldn’t be talking at all...but based on NucksPatsFan commentary above and past advice I bought an ETF called ARKK and it’s way up even since I bought it.

Also, I bought it inside a TFSA account so that growth is all tax free.

[Down by the River]

34 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

20% per month is my goal. 

Thanks. Is that a goal that you adapted with more experience, or was your aim from the start always 20% or not worth it?

 

 

[NucksPatsFan]

23 minutes ago, nzan said:

Again, I’m super new at this so I probably shouldn’t be talking at all...but based on NucksPatsFan commentary above and past advice I bought an ETF called ARKK and it’s way up even since I bought it.

Also, I bought it inside a TFSA account so that growth is all tax free.

Welcome.

 

Our leader is happy to have you on board.

 

[NucksPatsFan]

3 hours ago, Down by the River said:

but the amount you made was not worth the time it took to make it?

What is your time worth to you?

 

Can you make more than your perceived value of your time?

 

Is doing 2 hours of reading on a Sunday afternoon worth entering a position that could grow 25%+ over the following few weeks?

 

Can your no-effort-required fund you're in that requires none of your time out earn that 25%?

 

 

*Just using 25% as an example. Could be 10% over the next few weeks, or hell, lately I've been getting some 100%'ers within the week

Edited December 3, 2020 by NucksPatsFan

[Duodenum]

21 minutes ago, Down by the River said:

Thanks. Is that a goal that you adapted with more experience, or was your aim from the start always 20% or not worth it?

 

 

My goals have always been to aim high. I felt like 20% was a high enough, but not insurmountable number to reach in any given month, especially with the way the market has been this year with its wild swings. 

 

 

Here's November for my short-term swing account (week-week or 1-2 month swings). My long-term account sits at about 12% per year. 

 

The stocks that helped me the most in November were MEDS, DKNG, and a couple of SPACs. I took a dinger on an SPAC at the end of the month there. 

 

I like looking for bottom or dip plays in hot markets. SPACs are also all the craze right now. 

 

Something like DKNG will eventually be moved over to the long-term TFSA account if it can prove to be a long-term strong and stable company with good management and year over year growth.  

 

I think @NucksPatsFan and @AriGold are better than I am though and better to learn from. 

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by Duodenum

[Warhippy]

almost kicking myself for selling on NNDM afte today.

 

But still have a buy in option for a sizeable dip which I think will still happen

[Darius]

2 hours ago, NucksPatsFan said:

It's personally not in my personality to have my money sit there and grow 5-7% when with a little bit of research I can find my own ETF's (if I want to be super safe) that will grow 10%+, and with some more learning and proactiveness I can get 20%+.

 

And that doesn't even mean having to be super active. You could play just blue chips and buy before catalysts and sell during the run up. 

My problem is that I dont know when to sell (btw ive enjoyed reading your posts , along with ari and futz and others quietly in the background),   Out of pure luck i liquidated my TFSA and my wife's TFSA a few months prior to COVID.  Up to then everything was in 4 index etf/funds.   I kept the cash in a TFSA account thinking i would need it to buy a property.  When that didnt happen I left the cash sitting there when COVID hit and the markets collapsed.  

 

So in April I started buying up blue chips including banks, industrial reits,  a couple of the piplines...even Canadian Tire when it hit below 100.  Topped it off with some ARK , UBER and even Air Canada in the teens.  Made big RRSP contributions at the same time buying up the same equities.

 

Now im stuck.  Seeing returns 30-60 percent across most of these stocks.  Im thinking should I sell and get back into index funds..should I hold and just dump future contributions into indexes.   Im just worried ill miss the boat, but in the long run I suspect i cant go wrong even if I collect dividends.  Its mighty tempting to hit the sell button right now...

[CBH1926]

5 hours ago, Down by the River said:

Especially for those with more experience investing, I'm curious to know what you define as a 'success'. Like, if a TFSA can get you maybe 5-7% returns over the course of a year, how much more do you need to earn to make it worthwhile to develop and implement your own investment strategy. For example, is there a place of purgatory where you made more than you would have if you placed your $ in a TFSA, but the amount you made was not worth the time it took to make it?

I don’t have percentages in my goal but I am not greedy and generally don’t invest in super volatile stocks and shiny new ones.

I find that people pump those and regurgitate information that they have seen at other places.

 

This year I am up 40% so i consider that to be a good year.

My core portfolio includes products that I use or buy everyday, I don’t invest in things that I don’t understand.

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by CBH1926

[CBH1926]

On 11/17/2020 at 3:45 PM, NucksPatsFan said:

Entered Pfizer large today. I think 35.80 was bottom, caught pretty close at 35.90. 

 

Submitting for emergency FDA any day, the approval should be a big catalyst. Mr. Buffet entered yesterday and more tutes piled in today. 

 

 

Any news in the future of partnering with Amazon on their new pharmacy would just be a gift.

You still holding or did you sell when it popped yesterday?

[Boudrias]

6 hours ago, CBH1926 said:

Love CVS stock, now with vaccine distribution it’s only poised to go up.

Way better than RAD or WBA, easily worth 90-100 per share.

I got chased out of CVS with the AMZN news release but got back in at a slightly lower ACB. Up about $12 since I bought ABBV. What is going on at T. Heavy volume and up about $2.00 in the last 4 weeks. Entwhistle is a top notch CEO. Telemed, International, Security and now Agri applications. Obviously using the CF to diversify. International alone is supposed to be worth $2 a share. He really delivers value IMHO.   

[NucksPatsFan]

20 minutes ago, CBH1926 said:

You still holding or did you sell when it popped yesterday?

Riding free shares into Dec 10

[Boudrias]

1 hour ago, Darius said:

My problem is that I dont know when to sell (btw ive enjoyed reading your posts , along with ari and futz and others quietly in the background),   Out of pure luck i liquidated my TFSA and my wife's TFSA a few months prior to COVID.  Up to then everything was in 4 index etf/funds.   I kept the cash in a TFSA account thinking i would need it to buy a property.  When that didnt happen I left the cash sitting there when COVID hit and the markets collapsed.  

 

So in April I started buying up blue chips including banks, industrial reits,  a couple of the piplines...even Canadian Tire when it hit below 100.  Topped it off with some ARK , UBER and even Air Canada in the teens.  Made big RRSP contributions at the same time buying up the same equities.

 

Now im stuck.  Seeing returns 30-60 percent across most of these stocks.  Im thinking should I sell and get back into index funds..should I hold and just dump future contributions into indexes.   Im just worried ill miss the boat, but in the long run I suspect i cant go wrong even if I collect dividends.  Its mighty tempting to hit the sell button right now...

Being a market timer is a tough call over the long term. Markets are crazy right now and momentum is carrying stocks up. That won't last. The minute governments stop pumping money out there will be a correction. It sounds like you have a nice entry point on some solid stocks so don't sell unless you do some homework. I have blue chip long term holds (LTH) and use the cash flow to buy more or start new positions. Some of the guys on here sound like they are cleaning up and good for them. I guess I am more the tortoise type. That said I keep about 75% LTH and then 25% for short positions. For example I bought JPM, held it for 2 weeks and sold for 25% profit. It was never a LTH. Took the profit and put it into C as it was much cheaper. 

 

I have been doing this for a long time and frankly the home runs are rare. Preserving capital is more important than home runs. It is so cheap to get in and out of stocks now a days that the temptation is to take on more risk. I have always found buying a stock is far easier than knowing when to sell. When you buy set a sell price and when the stock hits it revisit the numbers and see if the reason you bought has changed. Taking profits is never a bad thing but you have the added risk of making another investment decision. I have owned some of my blue chips for 30 years.    

[NucksPatsFan]

5 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Being a market timer is a tough call over the long term. Markets are crazy right now and momentum is carrying stocks up. That won't last. The minute governments stop pumping money out there will be a correction.

I don't think they'll stop pumping until 2023

[Down by the River]

Appreciate everyone's responses. I was only up 11.5% in the month of November and worked way too hard to earn that little. For those that creep this thread and want to know what my mistakes were in strategy/thinking, here are the main things I think I did wrong:

 

1. Working way too hard on researching way too many stocks. In hindsight I would spend less overall time researching different stocks and more time researching 4-5 specific stocks. I might have spent 20 hours on 10 stocks when I could have spent 15 hours on 5 stocks (all estimates). Less time overall but more time devoted to having a more nuanced understanding of the stocks I'm targeting (when to buy, target pricepoint to sell, etc.). 

 

2. Related to the above, I was too scared to put too much money into a single stock. The consequence was probably being too diverse... this diversity lead to poorer decision making (e.g., picking stocks that were maybe a little less ideal solely for the purpose of finding balance). 

 

3. Not knowing when to sell. I don't have good insight on how I need to improve here. I never sold stocks at a loss, but I would sell too early or too late. I get that selling right at the peak is difficult, but to me I sold things way too early or way too late... still made money, but not as much as a I should have. 

 

Anyway, appreciate the advice and insight provided in this thread. 

[Boudrias]

3 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said:

I don't think they'll stop pumping until 2023

Never seen a politician or civil servant who didn't love a blank cheque book. They will do it until someone says the emperor has no clothes. Did you hear the story about IHA ordering in gourmet meals into their Kelowna offices? That is one up on the MP's and staff who were double dipping on their meal stipends when they ate at meetings where the food was provided. It took a motion in Parliament to expose that. Ethics is gone.

[Darius]

2 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Being a market timer is a tough call over the long term. Markets are crazy right now and momentum is carrying stocks up. That won't last. The minute governments stop pumping money out there will be a correction. It sounds like you have a nice entry point on some solid stocks so don't sell unless you do some homework. I have blue chip long term holds (LTH) and use the cash flow to buy more or start new positions. Some of the guys on here sound like they are cleaning up and good for them. I guess I am more the tortoise type. That said I keep about 75% LTH and then 25% for short positions. For example I bought JPM, held it for 2 weeks and sold for 25% profit. It was never a LTH. Took the profit and put it into C as it was much cheaper. 

 

I have been doing this for a long time and frankly the home runs are rare. Preserving capital is more important than home runs. It is so cheap to get in and out of stocks now a days that the temptation is to take on more risk. I have always found buying a stock is far easier than knowing when to sell. When you buy set a sell price and when the stock hits it revisit the numbers and see if the reason you bought has changed. Taking profits is never a bad thing but you have the added risk of making another investment decision. I have owned some of my blue chips for 30 years.    

Thanks for the response, Boudrias.  Ive taken some risk by buying stocks like Moderna and Nikola and ended up dumping them when they doubled.  Wish i held on to Moderna as it hit over 150 today lol.   But im pretty conservative, getting in that retirement window so if I do play around its like with 5% of the portfolio.  

 

Im leaning to what you suggested - just holding on and keep revisiting when stocks hit certain ceilings.   I bought the blue chips pretty low and many of them generate 4-6 percent dividend so i was initially planning to hold on for a long time...i can reinvest the accumulated dividends . But i see so many people buying and selling and making money its tempting to do the same. All the kids are saying Palantir and Nio are gonna make them rich haha.

 

I think my next move will be European Index and Emerging Markets...all the talking heads im listening to seem to think the international indexes may start closing the gap on the USA.  Maybe more ARK too...As down by the river suggested doing the work on individual stocks is nerve racking and time consuming...

[Boudrias]

2 minutes ago, Darius said:

Thanks for the response, Boudrias.  Ive taken some risk by buying stocks like Moderna and Nikola and ended up dumping them when they doubled.  Wish i held on to Moderna as it hit over 150 today lol.   But im pretty conservative, getting in that retirement window so if I do play around its like with 5% of the portfolio.  

 

Im leaning to what you suggested - just holding on and keep revisiting when stocks hit certain ceilings.   I bought the blue chips pretty low and many of them generate 4-6 percent dividend so i was initially planning to hold on for a long time...i can reinvest the accumulated dividends . But i see so many people buying and selling and making money its tempting to do the same. All the kids are saying Palantir and Nio are gonna make them rich haha.

 

I think my next move will be European Index and Emerging Markets...all the talking heads im listening to seem to think the international indexes may start closing the gap on the USA.  Maybe more ARK too...As down by the river suggested doing the work on individual stocks is nerve racking and time consuming...

Nothing wrong with that. I don't really like using ETF's as I don't know how to measure them. You buy them because the geography or market they represent appeals but then what do you do? If sentiment changes how quickly do you clue in? Being CDN I knew I wanted exposure to healthcare, technology and space. To get that I had to go to the USA where you get good exposure but you lose the dividend tax credit. That said the USA side of my portfolio has carried the year for me. 

 

I diversify across 8 sectors. I pick LTH's for each sector and adjust the allocation for each stock as needed. Before I buy/sell I run my numbers to check on the trade. I carry 30 stocks and review all of them at least quarterly. I am a value investor so there are lots of sources to use. I have created sheets to record the key data and fill them out quarterly. When you talk about buying Europe or Emerging markets I already know how much my existing companies do business overseas. That is my foreign exposure IMHO. CDN & USA stocks that is it but they have lots of sales around the world.   

 

Someone rightfully questioned the amount of time you can spend on this. I can blow half a day without even realizing it. 

[CBH1926]

1 hour ago, Boudrias said:

I got chased out of CVS with the AMZN news release but got back in at a slightly lower ACB. Up about $12 since I bought ABBV. What is going on at T. Heavy volume and up about $2.00 in the last 4 weeks. Entwhistle is a top notch CEO. Telemed, International, Security and now Agri applications. Obviously using the CF to diversify. International alone is supposed to be worth $2 a share. He really delivers value IMHO.   

Yeah, I have been in and out of CVS for the last few years, this time my position is biggest ever.

T, I don’t know, I almost bought it the other day but got salesforce, Palantir and splunk instead.

 

It never moves, I get that the dividend is great but it’s in that magic zone of high 20s and low 30s every time I look.

I rather own Verizon tbh.

Edited December 3, 2020 by CBH1926

[NucksPatsFan]

35 minutes ago, Down by the River said:

Appreciate everyone's responses. I was only up 11.5% in the month of November and worked way too hard to earn that little. For those that creep this thread and want to know what my mistakes were in strategy/thinking, here are the main things I think I did wrong:

 

1. Working way too hard on researching way too many stocks. In hindsight I would spend less overall time researching different stocks and more time researching 4-5 specific stocks. I might have spent 20 hours on 10 stocks when I could have spent 15 hours on 5 stocks (all estimates). Less time overall but more time devoted to having a more nuanced understanding of the stocks I'm targeting (when to buy, target pricepoint to sell, etc.). 

 

2. Related to the above, I was too scared to put too much money into a single stock. The consequence was probably being too diverse... this diversity lead to poorer decision making (e.g., picking stocks that were maybe a little less ideal solely for the purpose of finding balance). 

 

3. Not knowing when to sell. I don't have good insight on how I need to improve here. I never sold stocks at a loss, but I would sell too early or too late. I get that selling right at the peak is difficult, but to me I sold things way too early or way too late... still made money, but not as much as a I should have. 

 

Anyway, appreciate the advice and insight provided in this thread. 

I don't know what your capital and profit numbers are and certainly don't share if you don't want to, but just using a round number of say that 11.5% profit was $1000, that's about $50/hour for your 20 hours of work. Pretty good if you ask me.