HomeBrew Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, I.Am.Ironman said: I'm still interested to see what Tesla does. I love Tesla.. but these prices are crazy. Like yeah I know markets are forward looking and all of that but I can't help but think there is going to be a pull back to semi reality. I have a 70% gain in it right now. It would be nice to time a bit of a dip and add to the position with the difference. But who knows, that's an easy way to get burned, especially with the unpredictability of Tesla. I'm probably going to continue to add to my ARK-W, F, and G. If PLTR dips down again I'll look at adding that to. I'm staying away from recovery plays for the most part (other than owning Shell and Suncor). This vaccine roll out is going to take a while and it will be even longer until we get close to herd immunity. Add in the risk of this new UK strain spreading and the chance of the vaccine not being as effective against new strains. I don't see us opening international border until late 2021 in a best case scenario. IMO and many others, Tesla is tending on thin ice. It’s hype and future promises at the moment without even the projections and revenue to back it up. Burry’s comments are at the back of everyone’s mind and when it starts to tank it’s going to tank hard. Fortunately / unfortunately I didn’t get in on Tesla early enough to purchase other than in my ETFs (still fairly new to investing but am diving in big to time to learn), but once it drops I’m jumping on huge. Analysts have been predicting a “bubble crash”, and there will obviously be a pull back of some sort, but it may not be the entire market - it’s the sectors that are currently WAY over valued that are going to plummet back to earth. They were still selling leaps for March at 300 which should tell you something. Long term though, they will do just fine, but in the near term is where we will see a bear. This is what I’ve gleamed from reading into this, so could obviously be totally inaccurate. But the market self adjusts from highs and will have some sort of pullback of course - I would put my money on these over hyped stocks being the casualty. Edited December 20, 2020 by HomeBrew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HomeBrew Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 (edited) dp Edited December 20, 2020 by HomeBrew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, HomeBrew said: dp Woah, this isn’t that type of forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBH1926 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, I.Am.Ironman said: I'm still interested to see what Tesla does. I love Tesla.. but these prices are crazy. Like yeah I know markets are forward looking and all of that but I can't help but think there is going to be a pull back to semi reality. I have a 70% gain in it right now. It would be nice to time a bit of a dip and add to the position with the difference. But who knows, that's an easy way to get burned, especially with the unpredictability of Tesla. I'm probably going to continue to add to my ARK-W, F, and G. If PLTR dips down again I'll look at adding that to. I'm staying away from recovery plays for the most part (other than owning Shell and Suncor). This vaccine roll out is going to take a while and it will be even longer until we get close to herd immunity. Add in the risk of this new UK strain spreading and the chance of the vaccine not being as effective against new strains. I don't see us opening international border until late 2021 in a best case scenario. Tesla forward looking valuation of today might be achieved in the 22nd century. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, CBH1926 said: Tesla forward looking valuation of today might be achieved in the 22nd century. That's the thing.. they have this expectation for huge growth, which may happen, but these are prices that weren't expected for another 3 years or so. But on the other hand, betting against either one of Elon or Cathie Wood has not been smart money. If Cathie Wood is right and autonomous vehicles are going to be one of the next big things, Tesla has the lead; then add in the potential revenue from being an energy company in addition to being the leading EV company (with the transition to EVs globally) - it could be a trillion+ dollar company. The only thing is that it is on pace to get there in 2021 which doesn't line up with the current capabilities or scope of the company. So much needs to happen for it to get there, I think they are positioned well to develop into this but just not yet. Either way it is going to be interesting to see what happens, especially with the funds picking it up tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HomeBrew Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 (edited) 50 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said: Woah, this isn’t that type of forum. No? Was it just me?... I’ll see myself out... haha 27 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said: That's the thing.. they have this expectation for huge growth, which may happen, but these are prices that weren't expected for another 3 years or so. But on the other hand, betting against either one of Elon or Cathie Wood has not been smart money. If Cathie Wood is right and autonomous vehicles are going to be one of the next big things, Tesla has the lead; then add in the potential revenue from being an energy company in addition to being the leading EV company (with the transition to EVs globally) - it could be a trillion+ dollar company. The only thing is that it is on pace to get there in 2021 which doesn't line up with the current capabilities or scope of the company. So much needs to happen for it to get there, I think they are positioned well to develop into this but just not yet. Either way it is going to be interesting to see what happens, especially with the funds picking it up tomorrow morning. Exactly. Even Elon himself admitted they have to run a faultless company and media campaign to hold their valuation or they will be crushed like a “soufflé”. Long term they are definitely going to be huge. Not denying that and I 100% believe Cathie is making the right future calls. I do have doubts in the near term that TSLA can sustain this evaluation though given that the addition to the SP was their last big PR move they had lined up. They will be scrambling for PR hype over the next while, or down it goes. We may even see PR wars from EV companies over the next while selling hype. One good PR move from one company could equate to negative pricing in another. And so on... Edited December 20, 2020 by HomeBrew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, I.Am.Ironman said: That's the thing.. they have this expectation for huge growth, which may happen, but these are prices that weren't expected for another 3 years or so. But on the other hand, betting against either one of Elon or Cathie Wood has not been smart money. If Cathie Wood is right and autonomous vehicles are going to be one of the next big things, Tesla has the lead; then add in the potential revenue from being an energy company in addition to being the leading EV company (with the transition to EVs globally) - it could be a trillion+ dollar company. The only thing is that it is on pace to get there in 2021 which doesn't line up with the current capabilities or scope of the company. So much needs to happen for it to get there, I think they are positioned well to develop into this but just not yet. Either way it is going to be interesting to see what happens, especially with the funds picking it up tomorrow morning. The market is playing a bubble game. It works until it doesn't and then goes over a cliff. Market makers certainly do not want people to bailout. The growing dominance of ETF's simply amps up the leverage. So many people are simply gambling and fooling themselves by saying they are investing. P/E: the S&P long term average is 17.3, it is currently 30.8 S&P: 2036 is fair value (Determined by actual earnings) 2669 is the level it is anticipated that the Fed would step in to support a decline 3709 is the current S&P level. 82% above fair value FANGs: FB, AMZN, Netflex, GOOGL: they represent 12% of the entire S&P; add 1.5% for TESLA; this doesn't include MSFT or AAPL Cognitive Bias: Bubble markets like this provide an illusionary superiority as returns grow. FW P/E: I use this stat regularly but it is a key cognitive bias factor as anticipated growth can be a guess at best. Seeing 15% EPS growth is a almost standard expectation and yet is very difficult to achieve at the best of times. Many pundits are extrapolating growth numbers similar to the FANGs. That isn't going to happen in the vast majority of cases. Consider what happens to markets every time a stimulus package is delayed or the size is questioned. Markets dive. Many people now think that governments can keep buying their own bonds and can keep handing out money without serious ramifications. There is no time in the history of the world that this has happened. It will not now. Stop Loss: For those new to the markets having a exit strategy is more important than what you are buying. Set Stop Loss points and review regularly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Boudrias said: The market is playing a bubble game. It works until it doesn't and then goes over a cliff. Market makers certainly do not want people to bailout. The growing dominance of ETF's simply amps up the leverage. So many people are simply gambling and fooling themselves by saying they are investing. P/E: the S&P long term average is 17.3, it is currently 30.8 S&P: 2036 is fair value (Determined by actual earnings) 2669 is the level it is anticipated that the Fed would step in to support a decline 3709 is the current S&P level. 82% above fair value FANGs: FB, AMZN, Netflex, GOOGL: they represent 12% of the entire S&P; add 1.5% for TESLA; this doesn't include MSFT or AAPL Cognitive Bias: Bubble markets like this provide an illusionary superiority as returns grow. FW P/E: I use this stat regularly but it is a key cognitive bias factor as anticipated growth can be a guess at best. Seeing 15% EPS growth is a almost standard expectation and yet is very difficult to achieve at the best of times. Many pundits are extrapolating growth numbers similar to the FANGs. That isn't going to happen in the vast majority of cases. Consider what happens to markets every time a stimulus package is delayed or the size is questioned. Markets dive. Many people now think that governments can keep buying their own bonds and can keep handing out money without serious ramifications. There is no time in the history of the world that this has happened. It will not now. Stop Loss: For those new to the markets having a exit strategy is more important than what you are buying. Set Stop Loss points and review regularly. I reset my stop loss for various stocks almost once a week or more. Every 5% I gain I set it 2% higher to keep what I've made and ensure minimal loss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AriGold2.0 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 (edited) I wonder if the airlines are going to see a big drop with this news of a new strain in the UK. A lot of countries are shutting down flights to and from the UK. Edit: the stimulus may temporarily offset any draw back. Airlines get 15B in relief Edited December 21, 2020 by I.Am.Ironman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duodenum Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, AriGold2.0 said: Looks like it fell back down. Wouldn't be surprised if the market drops this week as $600 per person isn't enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 What are people's thoughts on Alibaba (BABA)? It hasn't recovered since the ANT IPO fiasco but the decline has slowed and is starting to flatten around 260. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The stock market is getting a lump of coal for christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skolozsy2 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/19/2020 at 5:52 PM, NucksPatsFan said: Cathie Bobby Axlerod Wood does it again. Kept loading TAK kept loading TAK and boom fda approval for leukaemia drug. Whether she’s connected to the inside or she’s just that. Damn. Good. Ark forever. TAK is down $.30 per share while ARKG is up $5.00 per share. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieCanuckFan Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/17/2020 at 6:55 AM, Boudrias said: I remember cold calls from brokers on the VSE. I admit that I bit on a few. I was in my early 20's and running my own business. Bottom line was I knew my business didn't have the potential to grow much more than it had. Diversifying became my internal mantra. There’s a reason why many used to call it the Vancouver Suckers Exchange. I too learned the motto “You’re either a shark or a sucker” the hard way. But isn’t that life though? Dealing with whatever adversity that comes your way? (Though in my case it was more like greed taking over common sense). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down by the River Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 What am I missing/does anyone have a favorite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 36 minutes ago, skolozsy2 said: TAK is down $.30 per share while ARKG is up $5.00 per share. Weird. TAK makes up less than 1% of ARKG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 What a day. I mean, what a half day. Made 3 months pay in unrealized gains. Took profits but keeping free shares and free call options in some. Big trims (both commons and options) - FUBO, PIC, TTCF, NNDM, EMAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Since I'm on 2 weeks holidays, going to spend the 2nd half of the trading day shopping at Walmart for toys then dropping them off at the Surrey fire hall for the Surrey Christmas Bureau who distributes donated toys to kids in not great family situations so they have something to unwrap. As well, MS Society of Canada will match donations to make your money go 2x as further - as you all know a cause I will support until my last breath. Remember, money is great and we're privileged to be able to make even more of it by clicking some buttons on our phones. But it's even better when you can take some of it to make a difference for those who aren't as privileged. Donate | Surrey Christmas Bureau MS Society of Canada 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 32 minutes ago, Down by the River said: What am I missing/does anyone have a favorite? An old industry standard. https://books.google.ca/books/about/How_I_Made_2_000_000_in_the_Stock_Market.html?id=LySjDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false This is probably the most famous market book of all time. It's the story of Jesse Livermore who lived from 1877 to 1940. Many great lessons in here. https://www.trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/Edwin_LeFevre_Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator.pdf These are all full of interviews with top traders/fund managers. There's a new one called "Unknown Market Wizards" which came out last month. This is a bit of an industry bible. Nothing to do with the market in the traditional sense. Never mentions a ticker symbol, inflation, interest rates, The FOMC etc.. It's all about psychology as it relates to trading. Which most people completely ignore. Probably the best Soros book out there. This was very entertaining. With most of these you can find pdf's on the web. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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