Warhippy Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, AriGold2.0 said: BREZW warrants, under $1... Cheappppppp.... explain the draw please. Whats their story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AriGold2.0 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 minute ago, AriGold2.0 said: BREZW warrants, under $1... Cheappppppp.... Not sure yet, I saw the alert and quickly bought. Warrants under $1 are a steal but are high high risk but very very high reward as we found out from HI5 a few weeks ago. Gonna do some research now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Im currently sitting. I've my loss and limit set for everything in my portfolio and it all seems reasonable but would be interested in putting a small amount somewhere else. Ari's Brez looks interesting as does an SVSU but would like to know more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, AriGold2.0 said: Not sure yet, I saw the alert and quickly bought. Warrants under $1 are a steal but are high high risk but very very high reward as we found out from HI5 a few weeks ago. Gonna do some research now. I know they're involved in oil/shale and gas so I was kind of wondering if there might be a story behind them worth looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Added more THBR at 13.5 and GHIV at 13.25 today. Curious to see the NUMI news that caused the all day halt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said: Added more THBR at 13.5 and GHIV at 13.25 today. Curious to see the NUMI news that caused the all day halt Numinus Announces Closing of $17 Million Bought Deal Offering Including Full Exercise of Over-Allotment Option Proceeds add to recently executed warrants and options of $8.9 million /NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES/ VANCOUVER, BC, Dec. 29, 2020 /CNW/ - Numinus Wellness Inc. ("Numinus" or the "Company") (TSXV: NUMI), a company creating an ecosystem of health solutions centered around developing and supporting the safe, evidence-based, accessible use of psychedelic-assisted psychotherapies, is pleased to announce that it has closed its previously announced bought deal public offering (the "Offering") of units (the "Units") through Canaccord Genuity Corp. and Eight Capital (the "Underwriters") pursuant to a short form prospectus dated December 21, 2020. Pursuant to the Offering, the Company issued 25,367,850 Units, on an underwritten basis, at the purchase price of $0.68 per Unit (the "Offering Price"), for aggregate gross proceeds to the Company of $17,250,138, which includes the exercise, in full, by the Underwriters of the over-allotment option (the "Over-Allotment Option") granted by the Company to purchase an additional 3,308,850 Units at the Offering Price. Each Unit consists of one common share of the Company (a "Common Share") and one-half of one common share purchase warrant of the Company (each whole warrant, a "Warrant"). Each Warrant is exercisable to acquire one Common Share until December 29, 2022 at an exercise price of $0.90 per Common Share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 hour ago, NucksPatsFan said: Added more THBR at 13.5 and GHIV at 13.25 today. Curious to see the NUMI news that caused the all day halt 1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said: Numinus Announces Closing of $17 Million Bought Deal Offering Including Full Exercise of Over-Allotment Option Proceeds add to recently executed warrants and options of $8.9 million /NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES/ VANCOUVER, BC, Dec. 29, 2020 /CNW/ - Numinus Wellness Inc. ("Numinus" or the "Company") (TSXV: NUMI), a company creating an ecosystem of health solutions centered around developing and supporting the safe, evidence-based, accessible use of psychedelic-assisted psychotherapies, is pleased to announce that it has closed its previously announced bought deal public offering (the "Offering") of units (the "Units") through Canaccord Genuity Corp. and Eight Capital (the "Underwriters") pursuant to a short form prospectus dated December 21, 2020. Pursuant to the Offering, the Company issued 25,367,850 Units, on an underwritten basis, at the purchase price of $0.68 per Unit (the "Offering Price"), for aggregate gross proceeds to the Company of $17,250,138, which includes the exercise, in full, by the Underwriters of the over-allotment option (the "Over-Allotment Option") granted by the Company to purchase an additional 3,308,850 Units at the Offering Price. Each Unit consists of one common share of the Company (a "Common Share") and one-half of one common share purchase warrant of the Company (each whole warrant, a "Warrant"). Each Warrant is exercisable to acquire one Common Share until December 29, 2022 at an exercise price of $0.90 per Common Share. I a number of units in NUMI . What precisely does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, Warhippy said: I a number of units in NUMI . What precisely does this mean? They did an offering of 25.3 million shares to raise capital at a price of 68 cents. Given that the total shares outstanding were 114 million this is pretty dilutive. There are 25 million more shares. To find a buyer they had to offer a steep discount to the prior closing price of $1.25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down by the River Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 I decided to play around with some data today... Listened to a podcast where Cathie Wood was talking about companies that innovated and how they were fighting for a share of the pie ("winner takes most"). It made me think about the interdependencies of the market. Past performance is used to predict future performance, but I am not sure how often models account for how the past performance of "Company B" impacts the future performance of "Company A". For my job, I regularly use a type of network analysis that is essentially based on graph theory. We have nodes ("common stocks") and edges ("magnitude of association between stocks"). How does "Company B's" changing performance impact "Company A's" performance? We can conduct what is called a fixed effects analysis, which examines within-company change in stock price and its impact on another companies change in stock price. More importantly, we can lag this relationship. How does the performance of "Company A" on a Monday influence the performance of "Company B" on a Tuesday (for example)? I took a look at the ARKQ ETF, which focuses on innovation in robotics/autonomous vehicles. I created an Excel file that gathered the closing price data over the last 180 days (125 days in which the market was open, so 125 data points) for all 42 common stocks in this portfolio. For ease of visualization, what I'll show here are just analyses of the 10 highest-weighted holdings and the 20 highest-weighted holdings in the ARKQ portfolio. When you see an autoregressive edge (an arrow going back into the node), it indicates that past positive performance predicts future positive performance. Whoop-dee-do. What we are interested in are the edges that show a directional arrow between two nodes (stocks). It will be a bit hard to see all arrows, but this is by design. The arrows that are more heavily weighted represent a stronger effect size. The heavier the arrow, the stronger the impact of a change in price for "Company A" on the change in price for "Company B" during the next day of trading. Arrows that are blue indicate a positive fixed effect. What this means is that the effect of a change in "Company A" results in a change in the same direction for "Company B" during the next day of trading. If "Company A" is up on Monday, "Company B" will be up on Tuesday. Arrows that are red indicate a negative fixed effect. The effect of a change in "Company A" results in a change in the opposite direction for "Company B" during the next day of trading. If "Company A" is up on Monday, "Company B" will be down on Tuesday. I am sure that people will know that I am just messing around/having fun with data, but to be as clear as possible, obviously do not take any of what I am doing as advice/recommendation/endorsement. In theory, FLIR was down today. If the model is accurate, DE will be up tomorrow. Similarly, TWOU was down today, so KMTUY and CAT should be up tomorrow (see the model with the 20 nodes). The nodes are not randomly placed in the graph. An algorithm is used to push towards the center those nodes that are more central; i.e., more information flows through them. DE, KTOS, and TSM are especially informative of how other stocks will perform (typically, if they are up, the next day, a lot of other stocks will be up). Anyway, that was just for my own entertainment and I wanted to spew my thoughts out, so apologies for spamming the thread with my "Dear Diary" moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 (edited) 51 minutes ago, Down by the River said: I decided to play around with some data today... Listened to a podcast where Cathie Wood was talking about companies that innovated and how they were fighting for a share of the pie ("winner takes most"). It made me think about the interdependencies of the market. Past performance is used to predict future performance, but I am not sure how often models account for how the past performance of "Company B" impacts the future performance of "Company A". Anyway, that was just for my own entertainment and I wanted to spew my thoughts out, so apologies for spamming the thread with my "Dear Diary" moment. Really like the 'outside the box' thinking here. Just a few things to consider. The lead/lag effect really shouldn't take a full day to get priced in. What you have come up with is the kind of thing many hedge funds' quants incorporate into their algos. And they are all trying to beat each other speed wise. Given things in the market happen in a fraction of a second, correlations that don't show up for a full day seem a little suspect and random. 125 data points aren't really enough to back test sufficiently. Usually systems will be back tested 2-5 years. The last 125 data points are all the product of a raging bull market. How will this system perform in a choppy or bear market? Thank you for sharing your "Dear Diary" moment. It's hardly spam. Keep thinking outside the box. Innovating is always better than following. Edited December 30, 2020 by nuckin_futz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 @Down by the River I enjoyed that. But as Nuckin said, there aren't enough data points to formulate any correlation. It would be interesting (but too time consuming) to take indices like the Dow and compare companies within that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AriGold2.0 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 (edited) Dropped some fun money to see what will happen and about 10 minutes later it doubled up and is still rising lol.. 3 halts so far. Edited December 30, 2020 by AriGold2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 (edited) 41 minutes ago, AriGold2.0 said: Dropped some fun money to see what will happen and about 10 minutes later it doubled up and is still rising lol.. 3 halts so far. damn.....a near 200% increase on the day so far. Where'd this one come from Ari? Edited December 30, 2020 by Warhippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 19 hours ago, nuckin_futz said: Numinus Announces Closing of $17 Million Bought Deal Offering Including Full Exercise of Over-Allotment Option Can't quite remember the last time a whole day halt was just to announce the closing of an offering, but hey, was able to add some at 1.07 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 10 hours ago, Down by the River said: I decided to play around with some data today... Definitely coming back to read this after a couple more coffees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 hours ago, NucksPatsFan said: Can't quite remember the last time a whole day halt was just to announce the closing of an offering, but hey, was able to add some at 1.07 this morning It's definitely odd. Usually these are announced after the close. Perhaps word was leaking out before they had the deal finalized so the company requested the halt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AriGold2.0 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 6 hours ago, Warhippy said: damn.....a near 200% increase on the day so far. Where'd this one come from Ari? I hate to say it and won't say anymore but a guy named PJ (I don't really like him) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down by the River Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 16 hours ago, nuckin_futz said: Really like the 'outside the box' thinking here. Just a few things to consider. The lead/lag effect really shouldn't take a full day to get priced in. What you have come up with is the kind of thing many hedge funds' quants incorporate into their algos. And they are all trying to beat each other speed wise. Given things in the market happen in a fraction of a second, correlations that don't show up for a full day seem a little suspect and random. 125 data points aren't really enough to back test sufficiently. Usually systems will be back tested 2-5 years. The last 125 data points are all the product of a raging bull market. How will this system perform in a choppy or bear market? Thank you for sharing your "Dear Diary" moment. It's hardly spam. Keep thinking outside the box. Innovating is always better than following. 15 hours ago, I.Am.Ironman said: @Down by the River I enjoyed that. But as Nuckin said, there aren't enough data points to formulate any correlation. It would be interesting (but too time consuming) to take indices like the Dow and compare companies within that. Thanks guys. I'll add more datapoints when I get back to my work computer. I'll go back two years and see what that does. I haven't figured out how to pull, for example, hourly data on each stock. For now, it just shows whether the closing price at time t predicts closing price at t+1. The specific analysis I'm using was developed with small n / experiential sampling in mind. Once I get back to my work computer I'll give an update with some centrality indices that can point to which stocks (hypothetically) have the largest impact on the movement of other stocks. Kind of just fun to practice working on something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 ARKI won’t include Cathie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said: ARKI won’t include Cathie So....avoid it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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