Investing in the stock market - Discussion

[I.Am.Ironman]

1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said:

The Senate just passed the $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Bill. Now it goes back to the House for a rubber stamp. So there's direct payments hitting bank accounts very soon. I can guarantee you there's going to be a lot of $1400 (or multiples of $1400) cheques hitting RobinHood accounts imminently. I could see the indexes retesting the highs. What happens from there is anybody's guess.

 

I just don't think the speculative stuff is going to get much respite. Way too many bagholders there providing resistance now.

Interesting point regarding stimmy and Robinhood / GME. Can you explain how bag holders provide resistance from above?

 

3 hours ago, AriGold2.0 said:

The next 4-6 weeks will be bullish but once SPY goes over 400 or even higher they're expecting a gigantic correction down to $340 area..

 

Basically that we're coming out of the bulltrap.. 

Could you not make the argument that the 'bull trap' was Monday March 1st? The 'regression to the mean' should be around 370ish, based on a rough eye ball of the SPY chart, a value that the SPY hit on Friday.

 

[Wolfgang Durst]

2 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

I put my crystal ball away a long time ago. I try not to make predictions because doing that tends to attach one's ego to their prediction then being proven right becomes more important than making money. When you're in that mind set you're in trouble. I try to just trade what I see happening with an open mind.

 

Here's an example. ....

 

 

I think GME is one of the biggest turds out there. It's a horrible company with horrible management and a dying business model. But if I am being objective I look at what it did last week while every speculative overvalued POS got crushed. It was up every day. Not by a huge amount but it's holding it's own during market carnage. This tells me shorts are stuck again and there must be a sh*t tonne of them. The play here is probably to buy some out of the money calls as a lotto ticket and hope history repeats itself and "Jimmy" goes on another short crushing rip.

 

The Senate just passed the $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Bill. Now it goes back to the House for a rubber stamp. So there's direct payments hitting bank accounts very soon. I can guarantee you there's going to be a lot of $1400 (or multiples of $1400) cheques hitting RobinHood accounts imminently. I could see the indexes retesting the highs. What happens from there is anybody's guess.

 

I just don't think the speculative stuff is going to get much respite. Way too many bagholders there providing resistance now.

 

Yeah I can't seem to sell myself on it either. I might have an inherent bias as I totally missed the boat there. To me it's a digital version of Beanie Babies. Stuffed bags of nothing that were selling for hundreds and thousands of dollars until they weren't. So here you have something just made up by "someone"named Satoshi Nakamoto that is now worth close to a trillion dollars. To me it goes under the category of if something sounds too good to be true it is.

 

I fear government will step in at any time and clamp down on it. Remember government once made it illegal to own gold and to drink alcohol. Government can do whatever it wants. And they don't like competition. If it becomes a serious enough problem they will find a way to do away with it. You are already seeing a lot of countries introducing their own digital currencies. How well that will catch on remains to be seen. But it signals they see Bitcoin as a threat.

 

Plus Bitcoin mining is such a waste of energy. I read the amount of energy consumed by Bitcoin mining is equivalent to the amount of energy consumed by Argentina. There's 45 million people in Argentina.

appreciate your thoughts on this - as always- , but here i want to chime in. The thing is government and central banks all over the world could have taken action already insofar as they set up regulatory framework for Bitcoin. Nothing happened so far. That's kind of strange. I was blown away once Elon Musk stated publicly that Tesla would accept Bitcoin as a form of payment for tesla cars and nobody ! from the government and / or central banks responded that Bitcoin is not a currency you can pay with.

My personal opinion is that Bitcoin becomes something like gold - a storage of value for millenials -. According to the law of offer and demand I expect Bitcoin continue to surge, because it is a scarce good, it's quantity is limited to 21 Million Bitcoin.

Just look at how the principle of offer and demand works for Cathie's ARk invest ETF's. Performance of ARk Invest ETF's in 2020 was more a function of the strong cash inflows into their ETF's rather than a function of performance of the holdings that make up her ETF portfolios.

Here is a quote from Jim Cramer from CNBC on ark invest etf's :

"Cathie Wood needs to close down her fund and concentrate on performance, not on trying to deploy capital." BRUTAL statement, can't believe this harsh criticism, but he hit the nail on the head.

 

as for the robinhood folks i am not sure if that much money will hit the stock market, only because lot of Robinhood traders got badly burnt over the last couple of days. Not sure how much stamina those young guns have. They want to make quick money. In an attempt to do so they have learnt that it can go the other way as well. Another thing is that interest rates will go up further more, some experts expect around 2% by the end of this year. At least the institutional investors will take this into account and will position themselves accordingly.

 

Well, that's just my thoughts

Edited March 7, 2021 by Wolfgang Durst

[nuckin_futz]

1 hour ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

Interesting point regarding stimmy and Robinhood / GME. Can you explain how bag holders provide resistance from above?

 

Take a look at a chart of CLOV. It's utterly infested with bag holders. All of those candles represent people who's investment is underwater. It's human nature to want to get back to break even. Any spike in this thing barring game changing news will be sold off by people happy to reduce their losses. That's why that recent spike above $11 was sold off so viciously.

 

From a technical analysis standpoint once support is breached it typically becomes resistance.

 

 

55 minutes ago, Wolfgang Durst said:

appreciate your thoughts on this - as always- , but here i want to chime in. The thing is government and central banks all over the world could have taken action already insofar as they set up regulatory framework for Bitcoin. Nothing happened so far. That's kind of strange. I was blown away once Elon Musk stated publicly that Tesla would accept Bitcoin as a form of payment for tesla cars and nobody ! from the government and / or central banks responded that Bitcoin is not a currency you can pay with.

My personal opinion is that Bitcoin becomes something like gold - a storage of value for millenials -. According to the law of offer and demand I expect Bitcoin continue to surge, because it is a scarce good, it's quantity is limited to 21 Million Bitcoin.

Just look at how the principle of offer and demand works for Cathie's ARk invest ETF's. Performance of ARk Invest ETF's in 2020 was more a function of the strong cash inflows into their ETF's rather than a function of performance of the holdings that make up her ETF portfolios.

Here is a quote from Jim Cramer from CNBC on ark invest etf's :

"Cathie Wood needs to close down her fund and concentrate on performance, not on trying to deploy capital." BRUTAL statement, can't believe this harsh criticism, but the hit the nail on the head.

 

Well, that's just my thoughts

Governments and Central Banks are always behind the curve. They're probably hoping it's a fad and dies out and they don't have to come in and ruin the party. Elon is a provocateur and likes making waves. Hence his tweeting about Dogecoin. No one from the government wants to go up against someone with an internet following. Just look at the current Republican Party cower before Donald Trump. They are all (save a few) afraid of him and his internet posse.

 

If Bitcoin is to become a legitimate storer of value the volatility will have to decrease substantially. You can't store your net worth in something that swings 20% a month. 

 

I hadn't heard Cramer's comments on Cathie Wood. Those are a little harsh. I guess by close down her fund he's is referring to making it a "closed end" fund and not accepting anymore capital. He may have a point. IMO Cathie is an interesting character. She seems to crave attention. Never seen her turn down an interview request from anyone and she seems to court an internet following. You never see big time fund managers like Paul Tudor Jones, Jim Simons or Stan Drukenmiller granting many interviews. In fact they are rarely heard from. They certainly don't issue daily updates.

 

Edited March 7, 2021 by nuckin_futz

[I.Am.Ironman]

24 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

If Bitcoin is to become a legitimate storer of value the volatility will have to decrease substantially. You can't store your net worth in something that swings 20% a month. 

 

I hadn't heard Cramer's comments on Cathie Wood. Those are a little harsh. I guess by close down her fund he's is referring to making it a "closed end" fund and not accepting anymore capital. He may have a point. IMO Cathie is an interesting character. She seems to crave attention. Never seen her turn down an interview request from anyone and she seems to court an internet following. You never see big time fund managers like Paul Tudor Jones, Jim Simons or Stan Drukenmiller granting many interviews. In fact they are rarely heard from. They certainly don't issue daily updates.

 

Thanks for the explanation (i removed for space). As for BTC, from what I have read it is in a sort of price discovery phase because it is in it's infancy. Gold literally millenia of trading history to determine its value. BTC and the blockchain are mere embryos in comparison, hence the volatility. It will probably take a decade or two to settle in, if it survives.

 

As for Cramer on Cathie, I interpreted his comments to suggest she should stop disclosing daily moves (ie. not be so 'open'). But I know nothing. I think you've mentioned recently that doing that just opens the stocks up to short interest. IF she can check her ego and stops doing that, it should benefit her investors. She has an interesting test coming up over the next year. She is now mainstream and thus, under the spot light. I'm still investing with her funds but treat them like an individual stock, a high risk one at that. I originally bought ARKW for bitcoin exposure.. it has taken off since so I'm still holding.

[CBH1926]

4 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

 

 

Yeah I can't seem to sell myself on it either. I might have an inherent bias as I totally missed the boat there. To me it's a digital version of Beanie Babies. Stuffed bags of nothing that were selling for hundreds and thousands of dollars until they weren't. So here you have something just made up by "someone"named Satoshi Nakamoto that is now worth close to a trillion dollars. To me it goes under the category of if something sounds too good to be true it is.

 

I fear government will step in at any time and clamp down on it. Remember government once made it illegal to own gold and to drink alcohol. Government can do whatever it wants. And they don't like competition. If it becomes a serious enough problem they will find a way to do away with it. You are already seeing a lot of countries introducing their own digital currencies. How well that will catch on remains to be seen. But it signals they see Bitcoin as a threat.

 

Plus Bitcoin mining is such a waste of energy. I read the amount of energy consumed by Bitcoin mining is equivalent to the amount of energy consumed by Argentina. There's 45 million people in Argentina.

I just did our taxes and the IRS wants to know if I own or have any Bitcoin.

One of my very good friends has been involved in mining Bitcoin for many years.

 

At one point he was up like crazy and at other points he would lose 80-90% of the value.

He has masters degree in CIS and has forgotten more about computers than I have ever known.

 

I just can’t get behind something that I can’t hold/see/touch etc.

Friday we went to Costco, jam packed, you better believe I have made money with Costco, Pepsi, Target, CVS, Microsoft, Abbott, McDonalds etc. 

 

 

[UnkNuk]

6 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

 

Yeah I can't seem to sell myself on it either. I might have an inherent bias as I totally missed the boat there. To me it's a digital version of Beanie Babies. Stuffed bags of nothing that were selling for hundreds and thousands of dollars until they weren't. So here you have something just made up by "someone"named Satoshi Nakamoto that is now worth close to a trillion dollars. To me it goes under the category of if something sounds too good to be true it is.

 

I fear government will step in at any time and clamp down on it. Remember government once made it illegal to own gold and to drink alcohol. Government can do whatever it wants. And they don't like competition. If it becomes a serious enough problem they will find a way to do away with it. You are already seeing a lot of countries introducing their own digital currencies. How well that will catch on remains to be seen. But it signals they see Bitcoin as a threat.

 

Plus Bitcoin mining is such a waste of energy. I read the amount of energy consumed by Bitcoin mining is equivalent to the amount of energy consumed by Argentina. There's 45 million people in Argentina.

Since I don't really understand Bitcoin I may be totally off-base here.  But one other thing I've wondered about is how long before some computer whiz figures out a way to hack into this 'blockchain' (whatever a blockchain is) and cause massive disruption?

[GLASSJAW]

2 hours ago, UnkNuk said:

Since I don't really understand Bitcoin I may be totally off-base here.  But one other thing I've wondered about is how long before some computer whiz figures out a way to hack into this 'blockchain' (whatever a blockchain is) and cause massive disruption?

bitcoin is the strongest computer network on the planet today, and therefore obviously the strongest that's ever been - and there's a massive price on its back. if it could be hacked, it would be hacked. that isn't to say that because it hasn't happened it won't happen, but even at super computer levels of cracking bitcoin's level of cryptography would take tens of thousands of years

 

quantum computing, some think, could be a threat - but most agree it isn't. even if legacy cryptography became obsolete through quantum computer, bitcoin would be the last of our worries because the entire world as we know it is built on legacy cryptography lol. but another pro for bitcoin is that if this ever happened, its open source and programmable nature would make it relatively easy to update and continue progressing. the same could not be said about financial or government systems. 

 

bitcoin wallets or exchange accounts are another story - these can be hacked in the same way that banks, hospitals, or mega corporations like twitter are hacked. but because the bitcoin wallet is something only you have access to, it's relatively easy to protect yourself. this is opposed to hospitals or banks or whatever, which are just data honeypots.

 

while i understand the trepidation in buying bitcoin, i don't really understand this idea of "not being able to hold it" personally. the entire world is getting digitized. you aren't buying a piece of a rock or paper, you're instead buying a piece of the strongest computer network in human history - and computer networks are the thing that defines the world today, and will define it much more so in the years to come

 

that is until a solar flare comes and wipes everything out, in which case the only investments anyone will care about are blunt objects and potatoes

 

5 hours ago, CBH1926 said:

I just did our taxes and the IRS wants to know if I own or have any Bitcoin.

'whoops, I seem to have lost my password'

[Wolfgang Durst]

Just an additional remark on Bitcoin, because I just read a column on it in a finance newspaper - more specifically an interview with one crypto and blockchain expert - :

- 1.800 bitcoins per day were mined 2 years ago

- 900 bitcoins per day are mined currently

- 450 bitcoins per day will be mined 2 years from now

 

This expert from the Blockchain Center expects mainly because of the shrinking bitcoin supply a bitcoin price of US-$ 200.000 over the next 2 years. Just saying.......

 

[AriGold2.0]

21 hours ago, Russ said:

Sounds like we need to listen to the big wig more often  Feel free to tag it #BigWigSmarterThanUs and we will know what to grab. 

#BigWigSmarterThanUs

 

He's playing Canadian stocks right now which I don't but here's what he said.

 

"Tell them to play MVMD and sell at $2.00_

"I am also in Fans United as legislation just passed"

 

 

[I.Am.Ironman]

1 hour ago, AriGold2.0 said:

#BigWigSmarterThanUs

 

He's playing Canadian stocks right now which I don't but here's what he said.

 

"Tell them to play MVMD and sell at $2.00_

"I am also in Fans United as legislation just passed"

 

 

When you're already holding a big wig pick.

 

Spoiler

 

 

In spoilers: Cathie Wood talks about the last few weeks. She mentioned that they are an 'active and transparent etf' (or something to that effect) which means they are actually required to release their daily activities. This I didn't know. She added that they take make this information easily acceptable to challenge their own theses and open up the door to criticism and to just keep people informed of their direction. People at ARK believe that EVs will grow at an annual rate of 82% - fingers crossed!

 

Any way I thought it was an interesting talk. Would be interested to hear opposing view points from some of the heavy hitters in here.

[Warhippy]

8 hours ago, Wolfgang Durst said:

Just an additional remark on Bitcoin, because I just read a column on it in a finance newspaper - more specifically an interview with one crypto and blockchain expert - :

- 1.800 bitcoins per day were mined 2 years ago

- 900 bitcoins per day are mined currently

- 450 bitcoins per day will be mined 2 years from now

 

This expert from the Blockchain Center expects mainly because of the shrinking bitcoin supply a bitcoin price of US-$ 200.000 over the next 2 years. Just saying.......

 

That's why I'm backing ethereum mining companies with a moderate hand in bitcoin but also backing supply companies that facilitate friendly mining environments.

 

There's a little bit of money left to be made in it but I don't plan on holding a bag when it all falls out so I will never directly invest in Bitcoin or ethereum

[UnkNuk]

12 hours ago, GLASSJAW said:

bitcoin is the strongest computer network on the planet today, and therefore obviously the strongest that's ever been - and there's a massive price on its back. if it could be hacked, it would be hacked. that isn't to say that because it hasn't happened it won't happen, but even at super computer levels of cracking bitcoin's level of cryptography would take tens of thousands of years

 

quantum computing, some think, could be a threat - but most agree it isn't. even if legacy cryptography became obsolete through quantum computer, bitcoin would be the last of our worries because the entire world as we know it is built on legacy cryptography lol. but another pro for bitcoin is that if this ever happened, its open source and programmable nature would make it relatively easy to update and continue progressing. the same could not be said about financial or government systems. 

 

bitcoin wallets or exchange accounts are another story - these can be hacked in the same way that banks, hospitals, or mega corporations like twitter are hacked. but because the bitcoin wallet is something only you have access to, it's relatively easy to protect yourself. this is opposed to hospitals or banks or whatever, which are just data honeypots.

 

while i understand the trepidation in buying bitcoin, i don't really understand this idea of "not being able to hold it" personally. the entire world is getting digitized. you aren't buying a piece of a rock or paper, you're instead buying a piece of the strongest computer network in human history - and computer networks are the thing that defines the world today, and will define it much more so in the years to come

 

that is until a solar flare comes and wipes everything out, in which case the only investments anyone will care about are blunt objects and potatoes

 

 

Thanks.    You obviously know more about bitcoin than I do.  (Which, come to think of it, isn't saying that much but take it as a compliment anyway.)

 

That being said, I guess I just have a feeling that anything that's been invented by someone on a computer can be hacked by someone on a computer.

[Russ]

22 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

Take a look at a chart of CLOV. It's utterly infested with bag holders. All of those candles represent people who's investment is underwater. It's human nature to want to get back to break even. Any spike in this thing barring game changing news will be sold off by people happy to reduce their losses. That's why that recent spike above $11 was sold off so viciously.

 

From a technical analysis standpoint once support is breached it typically becomes resistance.

 

 

 

Holy batman, I thought CLOV had some good things about them, I got in at like 13 and out at 11 or so.  Man has it dropped a lot.  Chamath is really loosing his charm recently. 

 

13 hours ago, Wolfgang Durst said:

Just an additional remark on Bitcoin, because I just read a column on it in a finance newspaper - more specifically an interview with one crypto and blockchain expert - :

- 1.800 bitcoins per day were mined 2 years ago

- 900 bitcoins per day are mined currently

- 450 bitcoins per day will be mined 2 years from now

 

This expert from the Blockchain Center expects mainly because of the shrinking bitcoin supply a bitcoin price of US-$ 200.000 over the next 2 years. Just saying.......

 

Yea from what I have gathered it gets harder and harder to mine each day as the codes to mine it get more and more difficult so each day it'll slowly drop lower and lower of how many they will be able to mine and theres those major computers running 24/7 doing it.

 

8 hours ago, AriGold2.0 said:

#BigWigSmarterThanUs

 

He's playing Canadian stocks right now which I don't but here's what he said.

 

"Tell them to play MVMD and sell at $2.00_

"I am also in Fans United as legislation just passed"

 

 

I laughed and almost spat out my coffee when I read you actually wrote that.  Love it!  Ok might throw down a few bucks on them after reading up on them and see how his prediction works out

Edited March 8, 2021 by Russ

[NucksPatsFan]

5 hours ago, Warhippy said:

That's why I'm backing ethereum mining companies with a moderate hand in bitcoin but also backing supply companies that facilitate friendly mining environments.

 

There's a little bit of money left to be made in it but I don't plan on holding a bag when it all falls out so I will never directly invest in Bitcoin or ethereum

Same as my strategy, just dollar cost averaging on Hut.To and will sell the occasional pop. 

 

I also bought 5000 dogecoin (spent $150 on a lot worse things) as a stash and check it in 2040 "in case" it does pull off a mini bitcoin. Everyone was laughing at bitcoin at the start of the decade, if in 20 years my $150 investment is worth $0 I won't be sad. 

Edited March 8, 2021 by NucksPatsFan

[NucksPatsFan]

double

Edited March 8, 2021 by NucksPatsFan

[AriGold2.0]

I get the strange feeling that GME is gonna go haywire this week..

 

Edit: Also, it looks like we're all in some trouble.. Oof..

Edited March 8, 2021 by AriGold2.0

[Warhippy]

56 minutes ago, AriGold2.0 said:

I get the strange feeling that GME is gonna go haywire this week..

 

Edit: Also, it looks like we're all in some trouble.. Oof..

Trouble based on??

[Warhippy]

3 hours ago, NucksPatsFan said:

Same as my strategy, just dollar cost averaging on Hut.To and will sell the occasional pop. 

 

I also bought 5000 dogecoin (spent $150 on a lot worse things) as a stash and check it in 2040 "in case" it does pull off a mini bitcoin. Everyone was laughing at bitcoin at the start of the decade, if in 20 years my $150 investment is worth $0 I won't be sad. 

That's where I am at.

 

I have a few real naughty things I have money in that otherwise I wouldn't think of.  like hundredths or thousandths of a penny kinda stuff that have every possible reason to ride to bubble to 25cents, 50 cents hell even flirting with a dollar.

 

But i don't have more than $200 in any of them.  But from 1/1000 of a penny to 24 cents is a payday I won't turn away from

[Hard_As_Ice]

8 hours ago, UnkNuk said:

Thanks.    You obviously know more about bitcoin than I do.  (Which, come to think of it, isn't saying that much but take it as a compliment anyway.)

 

That being said, I guess I just have a feeling that anything that's been invented by someone on a computer can be hacked by someone on a computer.

Eventually there won't be any accessible bitcoins.Every time someone's password is forgotten,every time a hard drive wallet is lost/fails,every time a person dies and no one knows they had bitcoin.And so on..These bitcoins are gone FOREVER.And there is a limited supply to boot...

Edited March 8, 2021 by Hard_As_Ice

[Lancaster]

2 hours ago, Warhippy said:

That's where I am at.

 

I have a few real naughty things I have money in that otherwise I wouldn't think of.  like hundredths or thousandths of a penny kinda stuff that have every possible reason to ride to bubble to 25cents, 50 cents hell even flirting with a dollar.

 

But i don't have more than $200 in any of them.  But from 1/1000 of a penny to 24 cents is a payday I won't turn away from

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