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On 10/1/2021 at 1:29 PM, TGokou said:

It sounds like you still have a lot of learning to do but that's not a slight as we all had to learn from somewhere. Buying individual stocks will tell you a lot about your personality and whether you can change to become a better investor.  It sounds like you bought lspd because it is the hot tsx stock. Yes it has a lot going for it but it's also heavily overvalued which means the volatility comes with the territory. If you cannot handle volatility then you shouldn't be in individual stocks let alone ones that have greatest capability of going down the most potentially. Btw I have nothing but good things to say about LSPD and I am invested in it and just bought More at the $120 level on the dip.  However for one you have to learn how to avoid chasing hot stocks and then blame everything else if it doesn't go your way.  Second of all is you need to learn to tune out most of the noise and there will be plenty and it happens to all stocks. If you keep tuning in to all the noise you will end up selling either far to early or even worse at a loss because you believed certain reports. Granted there are times when the news will affect when you should sell but relatively rare assuming you have a solid business. Also timing the market is a fools game especially for a green investor. Always stay in the market and if you believe a crash is coming it's acceptable to hold 10-20% in cash but never go fully out because 95% of the time you will be wrong or or you are right but too slow or unable to react when a crash happens (hence your comment about not going back into market even though we had a huge crash in 2020)

A lot of good advice. 

 

I don't use ETF's much so carry between 25-30 stocks in my portfolio. I do the valuation metrics to determine buy/sell points. I have my core stocks which I hold even if markets drop. I use dividends as the cash flow that allows me to buy. I view my core holdings as companies I would like to own a piece of for the long term. 

 

As you pointed out, governments have added so much liquidity to markets that volatility has become a useful tool. I bought GOOGL on sale the other day. :) Don't try to play momentum as you will lose in the long run. People have to realize that inflation is another government tool used to pay off their debt. Another tax. Realize that your investment has to return the rate of inflation +. Start keeping total return stats (TR) to measure how you are doing. Also keep an eye on your book value (BV) to make sure it isn't shrinking. If it is find out why.  

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  • 3 weeks later...
7 hours ago, HI5 said:

Anyone having PHUN? Buddy messaged me about this last night, should have listened.

Grabbed some this morning. Made ten points on the last piece.

 

Had DWAC at $13 yesterday. Makes me want to puke thinking about what I left on the table.

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1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said:

Grabbed some this morning. Made ten points on the last piece.

 

Had DWAC at $13 yesterday. Makes me want to puke thinking about what I left on the table.

I grabbed DWAC at $11, was moving my stops and had it at around $18 and got stopped out.  Oh well :(

 

Green is green....

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This was a bit of a surprise...........

 

Bank of Canada prematurely ends bond buying program in surprise decision. Loonie jumps

Wed 27 Oct 2021 14:00:07 GMT
  • Bank of Canada decision highlights October 27, 2021
Bank of Canada leader macklem
  • Bank of Canada slows pace of QE to $0B/week vs $1B/week expected
  • Prior pace of QE was $2 billion per week
  • extraordinary forward guidance maintained
  • Supply shortages are 'limiting the economy's productive capacity'
  • Rates left at 0.25%, as expected
  • Estimates output gap at -1.25% to -2.25%
  • In the July MPR, the BOC estimated the output gap at -2.0-3.0%
  • In July, BOC saw output gap closing in H2 2022, now sees it in the 'middle quarters' of 2022
  • Notes significant uncertainty around output gap
  • Sees GDP this year up 5.1% this year and 4.3% in 2022
  • Q3 GDP seen at 5.5% vs +7.3% July forecast
  • July Canada GDP estimate for 2021 6.0%, for 2022 4.6%
  • CPI estimate at 3.4% this year and 3.4% in 2022
  • July Canada CPI estimate for 2021 3.0%, for 2022 2.4%
  • US growth in 2021 seen at 5.6% vs 6.6% in July
  • US growth seen at 3.9% in 2022 vs 5.1% in July
  • Macklem will host a press conference shortly
The Bank of Canada ends its QE program prematurely, tapering its purchases to $0 per month. It was widely expected to taper to $1B/week from $2B/week. The BOC will now only reinvest its existing balance sheet.
 
USD/CAD has fallen to 1.2337 from 1.2430 in a flash.
 
The CPI (inflation) forecast for 2022 to 3.4% from 2.4% is a big shift. That's well-above the BOC's target.
 
USDCAD chart
 
This isn't exactly pushing back on expectations for four hikes in 2022 and it tees up a chance for the BOC to hike as soon as the March 2 or April 13 meeting.
 
On the global growth side, the BOC now sees it at 6.5% from 6.9%. It was mostly downgrades but the outlook for the Eurozone improved:
BOC global growth forecasts
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3 hours ago, skolozsy2 said:

My first investment into crypto was this SHIB thing a few months ago....today, it just became my first 1000%'er.  Not gonna lie, nearly SHIB my pants!

Lol man, I lost so much on it. I did a yolo swing at the top right before Vitalik decided to donate a bunch causing it to crash. Took me a while to recoup all my losses, and now just seeing it rip sucks. 
 

Congrats though, hope you made some big bucks! 

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8 hours ago, skolozsy2 said:

My first investment into crypto was this SHIB thing a few months ago....today, it just became my first 1000%'er.  Not gonna lie, nearly SHIB my pants!

Picked some up last month as well. Feels good man.

 

On 10/26/2021 at 5:45 PM, HI5 said:

Elite pumper. He had a big following on Twitter as well.

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10 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

This was a bit of a surprise...........

 

Bank of Canada prematurely ends bond buying program in surprise decision. Loonie jumps

Wed 27 Oct 2021 14:00:07 GMT
  • Bank of Canada decision highlights October 27, 2021
Bank of Canada leader macklem
  • Bank of Canada slows pace of QE to $0B/week vs $1B/week expected
  • Prior pace of QE was $2 billion per week
  • extraordinary forward guidance maintained
  • Supply shortages are 'limiting the economy's productive capacity'
  • Rates left at 0.25%, as expected
  • Estimates output gap at -1.25% to -2.25%
  • In the July MPR, the BOC estimated the output gap at -2.0-3.0%
  • In July, BOC saw output gap closing in H2 2022, now sees it in the 'middle quarters' of 2022
  • Notes significant uncertainty around output gap
  • Sees GDP this year up 5.1% this year and 4.3% in 2022
  • Q3 GDP seen at 5.5% vs +7.3% July forecast
  • July Canada GDP estimate for 2021 6.0%, for 2022 4.6%
  • CPI estimate at 3.4% this year and 3.4% in 2022
  • July Canada CPI estimate for 2021 3.0%, for 2022 2.4%
  • US growth in 2021 seen at 5.6% vs 6.6% in July
  • US growth seen at 3.9% in 2022 vs 5.1% in July
  • Macklem will host a press conference shortly
The Bank of Canada ends its QE program prematurely, tapering its purchases to $0 per month. It was widely expected to taper to $1B/week from $2B/week. The BOC will now only reinvest its existing balance sheet.
 
USD/CAD has fallen to 1.2337 from 1.2430 in a flash.
 
The CPI (inflation) forecast for 2022 to 3.4% from 2.4% is a big shift. That's well-above the BOC's target.
 
USDCAD chart
 
This isn't exactly pushing back on expectations for four hikes in 2022 and it tees up a chance for the BOC to hike as soon as the March 2 or April 13 meeting.
 
On the global growth side, the BOC now sees it at 6.5% from 6.9%. It was mostly downgrades but the outlook for the Eurozone improved:
BOC global growth forecasts

So if you want or need a mortgage or can lock in your rates or plan on taking out a loan with a fixed term do it now?

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4 hours ago, HI5 said:

Lol man, I lost so much on it. I did a yolo swing at the top right before Vitalik decided to donate a bunch causing it to crash. Took me a while to recoup all my losses, and now just seeing it rip sucks. 
 

Congrats though, hope you made some big bucks! 

3 minutes ago, J-23 said:

Picked some up last month as well. Feels good man.

 

Elite pumper. He had a big following on Twitter as well.

I think he was tweeting right up until they knocked on his door. Some of these Twitter pumpers have followings of like 600K people.

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1 minute ago, nuckin_futz said:

I think he was tweeting right up until they knocked on his door. Some of these Twitter pumpers have followings of like 600K people.

That first tweet LOOoooool

 

Meanwhile im holding a position in a mining/nft company and just kinda holding my assets waiting to see what happens this winter

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4 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

So if you want or need a mortgage or can lock in your rates or plan on taking out a loan with a fixed term do it now?

I do think you'd be doing yourself a favour by doing that. The BOC is indicating they won't be running the printer at full speed any longer. Doesn't mean they won't remain accommodative but just not at the same rate.

 

New Zealand already hiked from .25% to .5%. Earlier today the Brazilian Central Bank hiked from 6.25 to 7.5 and indicated another hike of the same magnitude can be expected at their next meeting.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

I do think you'd be doing yourself a favour by doing that. The BOC is indicating they won't be running the printer at full speed any longer. Doesn't mean they won't remain accommodative but just not at the same rate.

 

New Zealand already hiked from .25% to .5%. Earlier today the Brazilian Central Bank hiked from 6.25 to 7.5 and indicated another hike of the same magnitude can be expected at their next meeting.

 

 

Just looking at the BDC 12 year for a small loan to upgrade some equipment, the gov has a potential 50% non repayment if you qualify and 100k at 12 years at these rates with only a 50% repayment seems pretty damned choice

 

At 1.5% or higher, not so much

Edited by Warhippy
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23 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

I do think you'd be doing yourself a favour by doing that. The BOC is indicating they won't be running the printer at full speed any longer. Doesn't mean they won't remain accommodative but just not at the same rate.

 

New Zealand already hiked from .25% to .5%. Earlier today the Brazilian Central Bank hiked from 6.25 to 7.5 and indicated another hike of the same magnitude can be expected at their next meeting.

 

 

What do you think the limit or sky is here in Canada?  Some are talking potentially 5% ish or so by late 2022

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1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

What do you think the limit or sky is here in Canada?  Some are talking potentially 5% ish or so by late 2022

The landscape for potential rate hikes has completely changed in the last 12 years or so. The amount of debt Central Banks have plowed into since 2008 is completely unprecedented. They really cannot afford to pay 5% interest on those staggering amounts of debt and for the most part they control the interest rates.

 

The one huge X factor is inflation. If it remains persistent, the only way to really break the back of inflation is by hiking rates. As we saw in the early 1980's.

 

But given the Central Bank indebtedness and household indebtedness, 5% rates would absolutely ruin people.

 

Getcha popcorn ready.

 

popcorn-eating-popcorn.gif

Edited by nuckin_futz
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34 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

The landscape for potential rate hikes has completely changed in the last 12 years or so. The amount of debt Central Banks have plowed into since 2008 is completely unprecedented. They really cannot afford to pay 5% interest on those staggering amounts of debt and for the most part they control the interest rates.

 

The one huge X factor is inflation. If it remains persistent, the only way to really break the back of inflation is by hiking rates. As we saw in the early 1980's.

 

But given the Central Bank indebtedness and household indebtedness, 5% rates would absolutely ruin people.

 

Getcha popcorn ready.

 

popcorn-eating-popcorn.gif

So in essence,

 

Pay your bills

Hold no essential debt

Lock in where you can

Don't spend frivolously if it won't pay you back

 

Recessions make millionaires and there's going to be some ruinous opportunity soon.

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7 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

The landscape for potential rate hikes has completely changed in the last 12 years or so. The amount of debt Central Banks have plowed into since 2008 is completely unprecedented. They really cannot afford to pay 5% interest on those staggering amounts of debt and for the most part they control the interest rates.

 

The one huge X factor is inflation. If it remains persistent, the only way to really break the back of inflation is by hiking rates. As we saw in the early 1980's.

 

But given the Central Bank indebtedness and household indebtedness, 5% rates would absolutely ruin people.

 

Getcha popcorn ready.

 

popcorn-eating-popcorn.gif

Meanwhile people like me who save their money get .25 percent on term deposits.

 

When my mother was relying on interest from her savings to survive before she died interest rates were around 6 percent.

Now she would be unable to live without eating into her hard earned savings.

 

Freakin joke.

System rewards people who haven't got the money to buy $@#$ they don't need. 

 

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10 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

I do think you'd be doing yourself a favour by doing that. The BOC is indicating they won't be running the printer at full speed any longer. Doesn't mean they won't remain accommodative but just not at the same rate.

 

New Zealand already hiked from .25% to .5%. Earlier today the Brazilian Central Bank hiked from 6.25 to 7.5 and indicated another hike of the same magnitude can be expected at their next meeting.

 

 

I wonder what's going to happen to loan delinquency rates when everyone has to renew their mortgages in a higher rate environment.

 

Felt so relieved when I locked in a 5-year fixed earlier this summer. 

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