Investing in the stock market - Discussion

[Boudrias]

12 hours ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

Why did markets rip today?

If it is true that the USA Fed is prepared to tank the stock market with increased interest rates there will be other outcomes. Just imagine how much capital gains tax the USA and Canada will lose. A major pullback on markets will destroy a number of retirement portfolios. Collapsing markets are often a reflection of economic health. A recession could be triggered by higher interest rates. 

Scary times.

[Warhippy]

14 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

If it is true that the USA Fed is prepared to tank the stock market with increased interest rates there will be other outcomes. Just imagine how much capital gains tax the USA and Canada will lose. A major pullback on markets will destroy a number of retirement portfolios. Collapsing markets are often a reflection of economic health. A recession could be triggered by higher interest rates. 

Scary times.

I might make $ on my savings though.

[Boudrias]

1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

I might make $ on my savings though.

You pay the full pop on interest income.  Just imagine if interest rates rose high enough to start moving money out of equities. It would reverse the destruction of the bond market. I used to have some bonds but mostly it was GIC's on the income side of the portfolio. MICs still pay well. 2.5% on GIC's doesn't cut it in a 8% inflation world.  

[Elias Pettersson]

The free fall continues.  Amazon losing over $150 billion in market cap in one day.  Crazy times.  It is just the beginning as well.  This isn't going to end well...

[nuckin_futz]

19 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

The free fall continues.  Amazon losing over $150 billion in market cap in one day.  Crazy times.  It is just the beginning as well.  This isn't going to end well...

Closing levels: Stocks puke into the close. Nasdaq falls to the lowest in a year

• Closing changes for the day, week and month

The old adage is that stocks don't bottom on Fridays. Of course, it's also the final trading day of the month so that could have led to some special selling flows that could reverse on Monday as we begin May.

 

On the day:

• S&P 500 -3.6% worst single day since June 2020. Lowest close since May 2021
• Nasdaq -4.3%
• DJIA 2.8%
• Russell 2000 -2.9%
• Toronto TSX Comp -1.7%

Amazon was down 14% in its worst day since 2006.

On the week:

• S&P 500 -3.3%
• Nasdaq -3.9%
• DJIA -2.5%
• Russell 2000 -4.0%

On the month:

• S&P 500 -8.8% -- worst monthly drop since March 2020
• Nasdaq -13.3% -- largest monthly decline since 2008
• DJIA -4.9% -- worst monthly drop since March 2020

On the year, the Nasdaq is now down 21.2%. With that as a monthly close, it's a bear market in tech stocks.

Drawdowns in big-cap tech:

• AAPL -13.2%
• MSFT -18.7%
• GOOGL -23.6%
• TSLA -29.0%
• AMZN -34.1%
• NVDA -44.2%
• FB -47.4%
• NFLX -72.3%
•  
• **************************

 

Historically April is the best for stocks. Not so much this time around.

 

Edited April 29, 2022 by nuckin_futz

[Elias Pettersson]

3 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Closing levels: Stocks puke into the close. Nasdaq falls to the lowest in a year

• Closing changes for the day, week and month

The old adage is that stocks don't bottom on Fridays. Of course, it's also the final trading day of the month so that could have led to some special selling flows that could reverse on Monday as we begin May.

 

On the day:

• S&P 500 -3.6% worst single day since June 2020. Lowest close since May 2021
• Nasdaq -4.3%
• DJIA 2.8%
• Russell 2000 -2.9%
• Toronto TSX Comp -1.7%

Amazon was down 14% in its worst day since 2006.

On the week:

• S&P 500 -3.3%
• Nasdaq -3.9%
• DJIA -2.5%
• Russell 2000 -4.0%

On the month:

• S&P 500 -8.8% -- worst monthly drop since March 2020
• Nasdaq -13.3% -- largest monthly decline since 2008
• DJIA -4.9% -- worst monthly drop since March 2020

On the year, the Nasdaq is now down 21.2%. With that as a monthly close, it's a bear market in tech stocks.

Drawdowns in big-cap tech:

• AAPL -13.2%
• MSFT -18.7%
• GOOGL -23.6%
• TSLA -29.0%
• AMZN -34.1%
• NVDA -44.2%
• FB -47.4%
• NFLX -72.3%

Zoom:  52 week high $406  52 week low $94

Robinhood:  52 week high $85  52 week low $9

Teladoc:  52 week high $174  52 week low $29

Peloton:  52 week high $130  52 week low $17

 

This is worse than 2000...

[nuckin_futz]

18 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Zoom:  52 week high $406  52 week low $94

Robinhood:  52 week high $85  52 week low $9

Teladoc:  52 week high $174  52 week low $29

Peloton:  52 week high $130  52 week low $17

 

This is worse than 2000...

The high in Robinhood (HOOD) was hilarious. It went from $30 to 85 in under 2 days. Only because there was a clause in the IPO that said if it traded above $80 (even for 1 second) the company could create a zillion more shares. So market makers ran the crap out of it on air and then it was lights out.

 

This is nowhere even close to 2000. At least all the companies you mentioned have revenues. In 1998-2000 you had companies that had zero revenues reaching multi billion dollar valuations. Some of the companies were little more than 2 dudes in an office with an idea. These companies would move on announcements of customer/client growth. Truly nutty stuff. Many of those same companies would be bankrupt just a few years later. How else did Mark Cuban manage to sell Broadcast.com to Yahoo for $3.4 billion dollars. Within a few years Yahoo would scrap all of it's newly acquired Broadcast.com technology and build their own.

 

All of the companies you mentioned have revenues. They are still overvalued but at some point they will become attractive or become takeover targets.

Edited April 29, 2022 by nuckin_futz

[Warhippy]

2 hours ago, Boudrias said:

You pay the full pop on interest income.  Just imagine if interest rates rose high enough to start moving money out of equities. It would reverse the destruction of the bond market. I used to have some bonds but mostly it was GIC's on the income side of the portfolio. MICs still pay well. 2.5% on GIC's doesn't cut it in a 8% inflation world.  

Well, maybe i'll move it in to gold...or ammunition.  Either way, one of those will keep my family fed with what's coming

[I.Am.Ironman]

4 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Well, maybe i'll move it in to gold...or ammunition.  Either way, one of those will keep my family fed with what's coming

Know any decent gold, rare earth, and precious metals ETFs?

[I.Am.Ironman]

This had me chuckle:

[Warhippy]

2 hours ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

Know any decent gold, rare earth, and precious metals ETFs?

If I am  gonna be a gambler, I am going to throw my lot in to something like the Case Lake formations that Power Metals or PWM holds, anything int he ring of fire or the nickle belt right now will have millions of government money flowing in to it.  The canadian government and numerous private companies are looking at Canada now that China has essentially all the none conflict REMs locked up.

 

Canadas nickel belt and around the hudson have plenty of sites showing significant deposits of rare earth elements.  Look in to exploration companies there because almost all of them are near penny stocks and almost guaranteed a few of them are oging to strike it rich soon.

[Boudrias]

19 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Zoom:  52 week high $406  52 week low $94

Robinhood:  52 week high $85  52 week low $9

Teladoc:  52 week high $174  52 week low $29

Peloton:  52 week high $130  52 week low $17

 

This is worse than 2000...

Look at the stocks you mentioned. All high beta choices. YTD I am down about 3%. I have some cash ready to start buying but will likely wait until June/July. Depends on your age but I would focus on blue chip dividend stocks. 

[Boudrias]

18 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Well, maybe i'll move it in to gold...or ammunition.  Either way, one of those will keep my family fed with what's coming

Maybe tread water for awhile. I’ve got some gold but ammo is so old it would likely misfire. I wouldn’t get to excited. I was a bit surprised to hear the Intel CEO say that he thought the chip shortage would push out into ‘24. Interest rates will hurt markets but I suspect disinflation reasserts itself. Maybe wishful thinking. 
 

As a society I don’t think people can visualize life without government support of some type. This idea ignores what many countries have experienced with run away inflation. Could we be Faced with 10 years of recession/depression? Did the people in Ukraine see their world being turned upside down? If it does I will be harvesting the local elk herd. 

[Warhippy]

2 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Maybe tread water for awhile. I’ve got some gold but ammo is so old it would likely misfire. I wouldn’t get to excited. I was a bit surprised to hear the Intel CEO say that he thought the chip shortage would push out into ‘24. Interest rates will hurt markets but I suspect disinflation reasserts itself. Maybe wishful thinking. 
 

As a society I don’t think people can visualize life without government support of some type. This idea ignores what many countries have experienced with run away inflation. Could we be Faced with 10 years of recession/depression? Did the people in Ukraine see their world being turned upside down? If it does I will be harvesting the local elk herd. 

Al Jazeera just broke a story about how China is hiding their shutdowns, got carried on BBC and CBC neutered it in to a smaller story

 

Bottom line is that China is now going in to almost total lockdown and shortages will be very prominent again.  Anything China says has happened is almost usually smart to be multiplied by a factor of 5.

 

This is and SHOULD be the golden time for the G7 nations to be wresting control over manufacturing from China and SE asia and taking control of pricing back from greedy corps.

 

but....

Edited April 30, 2022 by Warhippy

[Warhippy]

Probably have a good chance at a big ol bounce back tomorrow but that's a bit of a stumble

 

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/05/1096880050/dow-jones-stocks-inflation-economy-recession?utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&fbclid=IwAR1C-nDNcoVBOziWT5AjrAfKeVe5Pa3-9rq3s5_Z035BbsaV6R8Y9uI9Igk

 

It's turning into an ugly day in Wall Street, with shares heading to their worst day of the year.

The Dow Jones tumbled over 1,100 points as of midday on Thursday, while the S&P 500 was down over 3% and the Nasdaq was down over 4%.

Edited May 5, 2022 by Warhippy

[Boudrias]

How will CPP pay their monthly benefits with markets crashing? Yikes! 

[The Arrogant Worms]

30 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

How will CPP pay their monthly benefits with markets crashing? Yikes! 

https://retirehappy.ca/will-canada-pension-plan-cpp-be-there/

 

https://www.cppinvestments.com/

 

Also....Dec 31/2021 CPP had $550.4 Billion in assets.

 

Net income for the last 1o years 351.5 billion.

 

I think we will be fine.

 

https://www.cppinvestments.com/the-fund/our-performance/financial-results/f2021-annual-results

Edited May 9, 2022 by The Arrogant Worms

[Elias Pettersson]

2 hours ago, Boudrias said:

How will CPP pay their monthly benefits with markets crashing? Yikes! 

Easy.  Trudeau is going to tax your principal residence to make up the difference...

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Easy.  Trudeau is going to tax your principal residence to make up the difference...

where are you getting that from?

 

 

[Elias Pettersson]

12 minutes ago, JM_ said:

where are you getting that from?

 

 

It's been in the works for a couple of years since COVID hit,  How else are they going to pay off our massive debt?

 

https://www.taxpayer.com/newsroom/cmhc-spent-250,000-on-home-tax-study,-despite-denials

 

Despite repeated denials last summer, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation paid $250,000 for a study that would include an examination of “tax policy that privileges home ownership,” according to documents exclusively obtained by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

 

“It would have been a lot better for CMHC to just come clean about this project, rather than try to deny its existence,” said CTF Federal Director Aaron Wudrick.

 

“There are literally emails between the head of the CMHC and the head of the project confirming that sheltering principal residences from taxation is part of the study. That’s clearly a study that’s looking at a home equity tax.”

 

In Canada, homeowners do not currently pay tax when they sell their primary residence, the home they are living in.

 

The study is being conducted by Generation Squeeze, a self-described lobby group led by Professor Paul Kershaw of the University of British Columbia.

 

https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2022/01/cmhc-backed-report-calls-for-annual-surtax-on-homes-valued-at-1m/

 

A new report backed by Canada’s national housing agency is calling for a home equity tax on houses valued at $1 million and more.

 

On Wednesday, advocacy group Generation Squeeze released a report entitled Housing Wealth and Generational Inequity, which explored policy incentives to solve Canada’s “housing unaffordability crisis.”

 

The report was authored by Dr. Paul Kershaw, founder of Generation Squeeze and a University of B.C. professor in the School of Population & Public Health, and was funded in part by the Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation (CMHC) and National Housing Strategy.

 

Among the recommendations was the call for a tax that would range from 0.2% for homes valued between $1 million to $1.5 million, and up to 1% on homes valued over $2 million.

 

The annual tax would be deferrable, meaning the accumulated total would not have to be paid until the home is sold or inherited. According to the report, a home valued at between $1-1.5 million would incur an average annual surtax of $408, while a home valued at over $2 million would average an annual tax payment of $14,710.

 

Such a tax would impact about 9% of Canadian homes, according to the report, and raise between $4.54 and $5.83 billion for government coffers, which the author says could be used to provide benefits to renters, such as “portable housing benefits” or investments in new green co-op and purpose-built rental units.

 

“The tax will apply only to the 9% of households living in the most valuable principal residences in the country—including 13% of Ontario households, and 21% of B.C. households,” the report reads.

 

The report added that the annual surtax would reduce the tax shelter in housing that it says is incentivizing Canadians to rely on rising home prices as a strategy for savings and wealth accumulation more so than they otherwise would.

 

“Reducing the tax shelter will disrupt feedback loops that fuel rising home prices,” the report reads. “This would slow the escalation of home prices and improve affordability; reduce inequalities, including between renters/owners and younger/older Canadians; and attract savings and credit towards economic activity outside of the housing sector, which may produce more jobs and innovation than is often found in real estate.“

 

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-a-possible-home-equity-tax-for-canadians-is-still-being-floated

 

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) keeps saying it isn’t studying the idea of taxing Canadians’ principal residences when they sell them. Yet the Crown corporation keeps paying a group of tax-loving academics to study a form of capital gains tax that is known as a “home equity tax.”