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16 minutes ago, ronthecivil said:

I recently bought into BAM since I guess this is about as cheap as it gets and I want that sector in my portfolio.

 

Doubled my position in Disney. I love buying great companies while they are on sale.

 

Putting money together to add to Amazon and Google. Also on sale, just not as much.

 

LOLing at the price changes in my oil stocks. Oil price goes up, they go up. Oil price goes down, it goes down. Like it matters if the price of oil is $102 a barrel or $105::D Wake me up if there's danger if it goes below $60 a barrel (still make money at that level, it's just if it's in buckets or bathtub amounts). Regarding the price the economy isn't fully opened yet, electric cars still need grease and oil is used for a hell of lot more than gas. 

 

The F150 lightening presold everything ford can make over the next two years. Electric cars (and trucks) are coming but they aren't going to be dominant for 20 years. So I own Ford too lol but the oil stocks are holds for a few years probably, but they aren't forever stocks.

 

Speaking of electric cars, there isn't enough metal to make all the batteries and electrical charging and transmission for those. So I own a good chuck on miners.

 

Own 2 x Canadian banks. Those are forever holds.

 

And a bunch of other stuff that's just what is interesting at the moment.

I added to BAM as well. They're splitting 25% of the company off into a new income stock. Maybe a junior Blackstone that pays a 5% dividend. 

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16 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

We are officially in a bear market. 
 

Hide your wife and kids. It’s gonna get ugly. 

In all the years I have never seen such volitility. To some degree I credit this to the amount of money created by various governments and also 'grey' money controlled by organized crime or outlaw governments like Russia and N. Korea. Moving money in and out of markets, mostly on the short side. I am not discounting the threat of inflation which could easily cause a recession. I might be off base thinking this and it could get much worse than I think. 

 

I am dealing with this two ways:

1) I am a value investor so when stock prices slide down into my buy range I add. I rarely sell unless the company story changes. 80% of holdings have to generate a dividend. That cash flow provides funding for new purchases. 

2) On tax free accounts (TFSA, RRSP)  was doing the same thing but have now moved 30% into covered call ETF's that are yielding 7.5 to 8%. To raise the cash to do so I sold stocks that were at the top range of their valuation. Doubled the cash flow.  

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1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

We are officially in a bear market. 
 

Hide your wife and kids. It’s gonna get ugly. 

We're not officially in a bear market until we close more than 20% off the top. We did not close more than 20% off the top.

 

Don't count your chickens until they hatch.

 

1 hour ago, Boudrias said:

In all the years I have never seen such volitility. To some degree I credit this to the amount of money created by various governments and also 'grey' money controlled by organized crime or outlaw governments like Russia and N. Korea. Moving money in and out of markets, mostly on the short side. I am not discounting the threat of inflation which could easily cause a recession. I might be off base thinking this and it could get much worse than I think.

You've never seen volatility like this? The VIX is at 29.5. In 2008 it topped out at 80. During the Covid dump it got to 66. Since 2000 it's had readings above 40 on 4 other occasions.

 

In 2008 there was a stretch of about 5 or 6 days in a row where the Dow Industrials swung 8-10% / day. In terms of historical volatility this is nothing.

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The bear market is not in all sectors (yet). If oil stays at $100 next year, check out these returns. Free cash flow is money available to return to shareholders after all costs to maintain steady production are met. OVV is Ovintiv which is the gas portion of the former Encana, although it has evolved into 50% oil. The chart shows OVV could pay 50% back to shareholders next year, or buy back all it's shares and debt in less than two with cash flow. Strip pricing for natural gas is assumed (about $5.50).  So the point is...if you think oil stays around $100 bucks, there should a ton of money to be made in energy stocks, it's not too late.

 

fcf.jpg

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11 hours ago, flanny said:

The bear market is not in all sectors (yet). If oil stays at $100 next year, check out these returns. Free cash flow is money available to return to shareholders after all costs to maintain steady production are met. OVV is Ovintiv which is the gas portion of the former Encana, although it has evolved into 50% oil. The chart shows OVV could pay 50% back to shareholders next year, or buy back all it's shares and debt in less than two with cash flow. Strip pricing for natural gas is assumed (about $5.50).  So the point is...if you think oil stays around $100 bucks, there should a ton of money to be made in energy stocks, it's not too late.

 

fcf.jpg

Agreed. CNQ, CVS, FRU, WCP, MEG are my picks. Dividends up for most of them. Politicians interfere in the market place and then wonder when supply disappears. 100 million boe/day world consumption with a 5% depletion rate. Most people don't fathom what that means. Finding or increasing production from existing fields to the tune of 5 million boe per day. That takes a lot of investment. Most people simplify the equation down to turning the taps up. 

 

An interesting twist. Nutthall was saying the other day that Russia could lose 500 to 800,000 boe/day of production thru loss of access to western tech on their well sites. Western tech have all vacated Russia. Not just tech but also access to fluids and drilling equipment. Nuttall thinks WTI will hit $185 within 2 years. What is truly laughable is that the feds will likely consider a 'special tax' on profits instead of recognizing that they are the biggest cause of pricing. Biden went from banning fracking on federal land to demanding American producers frac or lose their leases. Go figure.  

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11 hours ago, Boudrias said:

Agreed. CNQ, CVS, FRU, WCP, MEG are my picks. Dividends up for most of them. Politicians interfere in the market place and then wonder when supply disappears. 100 million boe/day world consumption with a 5% depletion rate. Most people don't fathom what that means. Finding or increasing production from existing fields to the tune of 5 million boe per day. That takes a lot of investment. Most people simplify the equation down to turning the taps up. 

 

An interesting twist. Nutthall was saying the other day that Russia could lose 500 to 800,000 boe/day of production thru loss of access to western tech on their well sites. Western tech have all vacated Russia. Not just tech but also access to fluids and drilling equipment. Nuttall thinks WTI will hit $185 within 2 years. What is truly laughable is that the feds will likely consider a 'special tax' on profits instead of recognizing that they are the biggest cause of pricing. Biden went from banning fracking on federal land to demanding American producers frac or lose their leases. Go figure.  

Cenovus is looking awfully strong with the new refining exposure it has with the Husky acquisition. I've got some of that too. I've been riding Arc up mostly because of the long term "safety" the higher nat gas percentage may bring, as gas may be used for electrical generation. I believe I will shift mainly into OVV on the strength of that Nuttall chart I provided. That's a ridiculous value. But you're right, the risk is our governments wanting to kill off our boom in favor of Putin, Maduro , MBS and the rest.

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9 hours ago, flanny said:

Cenovus is looking awfully strong with the new refining exposure it has with the Husky acquisition. I've got some of that too. I've been riding Arc up mostly because of the long term "safety" the higher nat gas percentage may bring, as gas may be used for electrical generation. I believe I will shift mainly into OVV on the strength of that Nuttall chart I provided. That's a ridiculous value. But you're right, the risk is our governments wanting to kill off our boom in favor of Putin, Maduro , MBS and the rest.

The challenge will be when to leave this trade. When I bought into these stocks I was thinking a 2-3 year run but the risk amps up at the same rate as the stock does. I am not willing to leave even with a resolution in Ukraine. I thought Nuttall's point over Russian production sliding was probably accurate. With the ultimate conversion to EV I just don't see a lot of willingness to invest in increased production. Incremental yes but new heavy oil plants, no.  

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On 5/22/2022 at 7:49 AM, Boudrias said:

The challenge will be when to leave this trade. When I bought into these stocks I was thinking a 2-3 year run but the risk amps up at the same rate as the stock does. I am not willing to leave even with a resolution in Ukraine. I thought Nuttall's point over Russian production sliding was probably accurate. With the ultimate conversion to EV I just don't see a lot of willingness to invest in increased production. Incremental yes but new heavy oil plants, no.  

Exactly. I believe this Russian thing has expedited the oil crunch by a year, not sure if it's ultimately a positive for Canadian O&G investments or not. Looks like another good day on the US markets. My OVV up another 5%.  Interesting, today a Bloomberg article which claims only 29% of people plan on making their next vehicle an EV.

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On 5/21/2022 at 8:59 AM, Boudrias said:

Agreed. CNQ, CVS, FRU, WCP, MEG are my picks. Dividends up for most of them. Politicians interfere in the market place and then wonder when supply disappears. 100 million boe/day world consumption with a 5% depletion rate. Most people don't fathom what that means. Finding or increasing production from existing fields to the tune of 5 million boe per day. That takes a lot of investment. Most people simplify the equation down to turning the taps up. 

 

An interesting twist. Nutthall was saying the other day that Russia could lose 500 to 800,000 boe/day of production thru loss of access to western tech on their well sites. Western tech have all vacated Russia. Not just tech but also access to fluids and drilling equipment. Nuttall thinks WTI will hit $185 within 2 years. What is truly laughable is that the feds will likely consider a 'special tax' on profits instead of recognizing that they are the biggest cause of pricing. Biden went from banning fracking on federal land to demanding American producers frac or lose their leases. Go figure.  

You got a link for the bolded? I would like to read more.....

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Just now, ronthecivil said:

You got a link for the bolded? I would like to read more.....

Sorry no link. I read it in the Financial Post website but not sure of the date. If you google Eric Nutthall it will probably come up. 

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On 5/22/2022 at 6:49 AM, Boudrias said:

The challenge will be when to leave this trade. When I bought into these stocks I was thinking a 2-3 year run but the risk amps up at the same rate as the stock does. I am not willing to leave even with a resolution in Ukraine. I thought Nuttall's point over Russian production sliding was probably accurate. With the ultimate conversion to EV I just don't see a lot of willingness to invest in increased production. Incremental yes but new heavy oil plants, no.  

I am sure there are smarter people that do more research that can come up with accurate timelines, but I feel were a couple decades from having a full conversion to electric vehicles, and I am just talking about North America. Think about poorer countries that still have a lot of vehicles, including our older ones....

 

  • Even with massive demand, producers, be they Telsas and Ford F150 lightenings, can only churn out a couple hundred thousand a year vs. millions that are needed right now. The next couple years of production are sold already, two years out, but it won't make a dent.
  • New plants to up production for electric vehicles are just starting.
  • Charging infrastructure to handle this fleet is for all intents and purposes non existent. 
  • Materials such as battery metals will slow production and increase costs because we will need a LOT of batteries, big, expensive, batteries.
  • Oil is used for a lot of things other than as fuel for vehicles. Plastics, asphalt roads, grease for moving parts, jet fuel (good luck on an electric airplane any time soon), ships, etc. Even with electric car/truck conversion, there will still be demand for oil.

 

Is a 20-30 year plan where oil production is greatly reduced feasible? Sure! But I really only care about the next 4-5, where people have very much put the cart before the horse. 

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1 hour ago, ronthecivil said:

 

Nice job! I have to learn how to do such things. :) At what WTI price do you start selling? Q2 reports for most of my names come out in June. All should have dividend increases combined with share buybacks.  

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2 hours ago, ronthecivil said:

 

People will suggest that at some point in time the government steps in to control prices. Without ever ever understanding that the government is getting fat and greedy off taxation from such high prices of production and at the pumps

 

That $8 head of lettuce is coming

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2 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

People will suggest that at some point in time the government steps in to control prices. Without ever ever understanding that the government is getting fat and greedy off taxation from such high prices of production and at the pumps

 

That $8 head of lettuce is coming

The people suggesting things like that are basically asking for Communism. Those people can go fly a kite.

 

The gasoline tax is not a % of total price at the pump. It's a fixed amount per litre. The Government is not making more as the price rises unless they adjust the amount of tax per litre. Dramatic price rises as we have seen often bring about curtailed usage and less total litres being sold. Which would result in the Government collecting less total revenue not more.

 

Last week I saw a similar discussion on Facebook where people were bitching that the Government was making out like bandits. I was tempted to post the inconvenient truth above, but thought better of it. Those people were not interested in the truth. They just wanted to bitch about stuff and blame someone else. C'est la vie.

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14 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

The people suggesting things like that are basically asking for Communism. Those people can go fly a kite.

 

The gasoline tax is not a % of total price at the pump. It's a fixed amount per litre. The Government is not making more as the price rises unless they adjust the amount of tax per litre. Dramatic price rises as we have seen often bring about curtailed usage and less total litres being sold. Which would result in the Government collecting less total revenue not more.

 

Last week I saw a similar discussion on Facebook where people were bitching that the Government was making out like bandits. I was tempted to post the inconvenient truth above, but thought better of it. Those people were not interested in the truth. They just wanted to bitch about stuff and blame someone else. C'est la vie.

My argument is about increased production and leaseholds for production.

 

The government does quite tidy on that amount and they're in no real hurry to curtail or stop that. Any more than they're willing to try and completely ban the sale of cigarettes or alcohol even though it's killing people and they tell you it's bad

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5 hours ago, ronthecivil said:

I am sure there are smarter people that do more research that can come up with accurate timelines, but I feel were a couple decades from having a full conversion to electric vehicles, and I am just talking about North America. Think about poorer countries that still have a lot of vehicles, including our older ones....

 

  • Even with massive demand, producers, be they Telsas and Ford F150 lightenings, can only churn out a couple hundred thousand a year vs. millions that are needed right now. The next couple years of production are sold already, two years out, but it won't make a dent.
  • New plants to up production for electric vehicles are just starting.
  • Charging infrastructure to handle this fleet is for all intents and purposes non existent. 
  • Materials such as battery metals will slow production and increase costs because we will need a LOT of batteries, big, expensive, batteries.
  • Oil is used for a lot of things other than as fuel for vehicles. Plastics, asphalt roads, grease for moving parts, jet fuel (good luck on an electric airplane any time soon), ships, etc. Even with electric car/truck conversion, there will still be demand for oil.

 

Is a 20-30 year plan where oil production is greatly reduced feasible? Sure! But I really only care about the next 4-5, where people have very much put the cart before the horse. 

I agree with this.  Simply switching over to electric vehicles is alot more complicated than it seems.  Firstly, the infrastructure that's currently in place would need to be dramatically increased to keep up with the demand.  Who is going to pay for all of that?  Secondly, there is a limit on the production of electric vehicles.  Like you said new plants have to be constructed to keep up with demand.  If we are supposedly going to full EV conversion in 10 years that means millions and millions of vehicles have to be made to keep up with demand.

 

Thirdly, and most importantly, has anyone figured out what the cost of electricity is going to be if everyone and their dog is driving an electric vehicle?  What is the price of diesel right now?  Wasn't it supposed to be alot cheaper than gasoline and so the reason to convert to diesel vehicles?  I think the price of diesel is almost the same as gas right now.

 

Full EV conversion seems like a great idea for the future.  I'm just not sure how exactly we are going to get there anytime soon and what the ultimate cost to the consumer will be to drive an electric car.

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19 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

The people suggesting things like that are basically asking for Communism. Those people can go fly a kite.

 

The gasoline tax is not a % of total price at the pump. It's a fixed amount per litre. The Government is not making more as the price rises unless they adjust the amount of tax per litre. Dramatic price rises as we have seen often bring about curtailed usage and less total litres being sold. Which would result in the Government collecting less total revenue not more.

 

Last week I saw a similar discussion on Facebook where people were bitching that the Government was making out like bandits. I was tempted to post the inconvenient truth above, but thought better of it. Those people were not interested in the truth. They just wanted to bitch about stuff and blame someone else. C'est la vie.

Not sure about the government no taking a %. When I was in the business the government takes were always expressed in cents per litre but if memory serves the formula used was a %. That said the tax rate per litre didn't change much. Trying to research this is tough. Maybe your right as the taxes are almost the same for many years. 

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