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8 minutes ago, stawns said:

Do people still really believe there's going to be a stock market?

Yes. Do you really think Wal-Mart, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Pfizer are going anywhere?

 

The virus will pass eventually. Central Banks will throw whatever amount of money at this they need to.

 

The Mad Max stuff is entertaining but unrealistic.

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8 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Yes. Do you really think Wal-Mart, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Pfizer are going anywhere?

 

The virus will pass eventually. Central Banks will throw whatever amount of money at this they need to.

 

The Mad Max stuff is entertaining but unrealistic.

To reach Mad Max, so many things would have need to happen:

Solar flare destroying all electronic devices

Total collapse of business and government

Global natural disaster or some nuclear war where the majority of the world's infrastructures are destroyed

Some pandemic where mortality rate is very high

 

Not impossible... I mean the Minoans and Hittites probably didn't envision their civilization ceasing to exist either.

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11 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Yes. Do you really think Wal-Mart, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Pfizer are going anywhere?

 

The virus will pass eventually. Central Banks will throw whatever amount of money at this they need to.

 

The Mad Max stuff is entertaining but unrealistic.

At worse we will be in depression territory.

Stock market still existed through that. 

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17 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Yes. Do you really think Wal-Mart, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Pfizer are going anywhere?

 

The virus will pass eventually. Central Banks will throw whatever amount of money at this they need to.

 

The Mad Max stuff is entertaining but unrealistic.

Do you really believe those corporations, completely dependent on consumers will last 6 months, let alone 18-24 months?

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5 minutes ago, Shift-4 said:

At worse we will be in depression territory.

Stock market still existed through that. 

The Depression will be our best case scenario.  We should all be jumping up and down if we come out of this at that level.

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7 minutes ago, Shift-4 said:

At worse we will be in depression territory.

Stock market still existed through that. 

The thing to remember about the Great Depression was that the Central Banks completely made it worse by multitudes by tightening interest rates in an effort to drain all the excess out of the system. They made capital so scarce it went from a Wall St panic to an economic panic. They are not nearly that dumb anymore.

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5 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Where are the consumers going? Is everyone going to die?

I am just as concerned about how relief for citizens and corporations is structured. Both have responsibilities and blanket coverages are a feel good exercise the country cannot afford. I do think that non essential companies that are in trouble can go bankrupt if they cannot refinance themselves. There is a reality check going on here but not at the scale that Stawns is talking.

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14 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Where are the consumers going? Is everyone going to die?

Where are consumers going?  The better question is where aren't they going for the next 18 months or so. 

 

The answer?  Out shopping, anywhere but grocery stores.

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3 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

I am just as concerned about how relief for citizens and corporations is structured. Both have responsibilities and blanket coverages are a feel good exercise the country cannot afford. I do think that non essential companies that are in trouble can go bankrupt if they cannot refinance themselves. There is a reality check going on here but not at the scale that Stawns is talking.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/modeling-study-suggests-18-months-covid-19-social-distancing-much

 

This guy and Imperial College disagree.  Were in it until a vaccine is developed.

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36 minutes ago, stawns said:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/modeling-study-suggests-18-months-covid-19-social-distancing-much

 

This guy and Imperial College disagree.  Were in it until a vaccine is developed.

3 scenarios. What I am reading now is that vaccines are in development and that existing malaria drugs work. If so this could be controlled quickly.

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4 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

3 scenarios. What I am reading now is that vaccines are in development and that existing malaria drugs work. If so this could be controlled quickly.

A vaccine is 18 months roll out, if it's expedited

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Just now, stawns said:

A vaccine is 18 months roll out, if it's expedited

So what are you reading about these malaria drugs working as well as is being written? Cure rate in 5 days. Sorry I cannot link you to the articles. China, Japan and Australia all positive.

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5 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

3 scenarios. What I am reading now is that vaccines are in development and that existing malaria drugs work. If so this could be controlled quickly.

I admire your optimism though, honestly

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12 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

So what are you reading about these malaria drugs working as well as is being written? Cure rate in 5 days. Sorry I cannot link you to the articles. China, Japan and Australia all positive.

It's a treatment, not a cure.  This virus isn't going away until a vaccine.  Again, I'm going to go by the opinions of the leaders in the field of infectious disease.

 

A week ago, they were say 2-4 weeks.  4 days ago, they were saying August, at least.

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16 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Can't help but notice you did not answer my question.

 

Anyways, this is the investment thread.

https://www.wildcat.arizona.edu/article/2020/03/n-covid-comparison

 

Already surpassed the total number of infections and deaths of those combined.  The only comparable would be h1n1.  It was highly infectious, but had a mortality rate of 0.02%.  this virus is sitting around 3%........granted of known cases.

 

"Without being too alarming, it is almost as if COVID-19 is taking on the contagious habits of H1N1 with the fatality — to a lesser extent — of other viruses, but hopefully not SARS or MERS."

 

 

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