Ryan Miller finally 100%, ready for season (NHL.com article)

[insomniac604]

I am super excited about this.

Ryan's game needed updating. The stint in St. Louis made that very obvious. I think he was handling it well until he got hurt. He came back too quick but what can you do?

The fact remains that he is a VERY good goalie. He was posting good numbers in Buffalo during losing seasons. If he stays healthy he will be a real asset. If he is injured or falters, he will become good trade bait.

Obviously Markstrom is our goalie of the future (until Demko steps in). But having a veteran with solid mental toughness is always an asset. St. Louis gave up on him very quickly. I think he will stay this year and be traded the next.

[BlackRedYellow]

I have no desire to get into Lack v Miller again on a Ryan Miller thread-Lack is gone and any such discussion really belongs in a thread discussing moves by management.

However, it doesn't make any sense to suggest that number of wins (or winning %) is a better goalie statistic than save % (or GAA, for that matter.) No goalie stat is perfect, but # wins and winning % are simply horrible if used as goalie stats.

The first problem with wins is that it is of course a team stat rather than an individual one. The easiest example of that is that obviously goalies have almost no effect on goals for.

If one team gets more wins than another in a season, does that mean that their 3rd line RW is better than another team's 3rd line RW? How about 2nd pairing left defence?

Granted, a goalie has a larger part to play than individual skaters, but wins measure a team result, not an individual one.

A second problem with wins is that it is a statistic with a very small sample size, which makes it more prone to variation for luck.

To illustrate this, consider a situation where two teams play 60 times-or roughly the same number of times a busy solid starter will start in an NHL regular season. Consider that team A is slightly better and would win 52% of an infinite number of games played by the two teams while Team B would win 48% of the time if the number of games were infinite.

Over 60 games the expected result (see method in note at bottom) is:

Team A wins more often about 57% of the time

Team B wins more often about 33% of the time

They each win 30 games about 10% of the time.

It's easy to see that 60 isn't a large enough sample to have great confidence that the better team will win more often when the teams are close. The better team wins more games only 57% of the time. The worse team wins more about 1/3 of the time.

One demonstration of wins as a goalie ranking is to rank Carey Price, Henrik Lundqvist and Anti Niemi as goalies in the 2013-14 season. Niemi had the most wins and the highest win% of the 3. Surely nobody out there is crazy enough to believe that Niemi was the best goalie of the 3.

Save % is also not a perfect statistic. While it is an individual statistic, it is affected by quality of shots the team gives up. The obvious example of that is a team that gives up a higher than usual number of shots from long range and a lower than normal number of shots from the slot.

Save % can be skewed by superior or inferior rebound control or puck handling by the goalie, so it doesn't do a perfect job in measuring things that the goalie does to increase or reduce the number of shots or quality shots.

There are other ways in which save % is imperfect. There is no perfect goalie statistic.

On the other hand, save % and GAA, are far, far better as goalie statistics than # of wins, which isn't a goalie stat at all.

Note: To do the wins calculation over 60 games I set up a spreadsheet with the formula for each # of wins for the better team using the formula 60!/(w!(60-w!)) * .52^w * .48^(60-w) where the number of expected wins for the better team =w, then did a sum on w=1 to 29 and another on w=31 to 60.

You didn't get my point. You're compairing goalies (and players) on different teams, which I wasn't! (If I were, I agree that wins is a bad stat since the teams are different!)

If the team (in our case only Vancouver Canucks) plays better with one goalie than another, it's doubtless that they do so because that goalie gives the team a better chance of winning. (Probably thru better goaltending which gives the players more calm and they can focus on their own agendas!)

If a goalie gets more wins with the same team he's the better goalie. It's not always the goalies fault the games might end up 6-5, 7-4 (and bad individual stats) instead of 1-2 or 0-1 (and nice stats).

The team looked more relaxed with Miller in goal, the team won more games with Miller in goal, and that's what I care about. Obviously the hockey operation in Vancouver thought so too.

But if you rather have a goalie with nice individual stats such as save and GAA, and lose the games, please go ahead!

PS This doesn't mean I didn't like Lack, which I do. I just prefer to look at the situation in a sober way, and that is; Miller was better and I'm fine with keeping him on the team instead of Lack!

[Sedin Brothers]

When Lack got traded, I was still a lurker. I honestly could not believe how many people were completely trashing Benning for the move. I know that San Jose called for Miller, but Miller wanted to stay in Vancouver. Plus, Lack/Markstrom is way too green. I think Benning was wise.

[Baggins]

You didn't get my point. You're comparing goalies (and players) on different teams, which I wasn't! (If I were, I agree that wins is a bad stat since the teams are different!)

If the team (in our case only Vancouver Canucks) plays better with one goalie than another, it's doubtless that they do so because that goalie gives the team a better chance of winning. (Probably thru better goaltending which gives the players more calm and they can focus on their own agendas!)

If a goalie gets more wins with the same team he's the better goalie. It's not always the goalies fault the games might end up 6-5, 7-4 (and bad individual stats) instead of 1-2 or 0-1 (and nice stats).

The team looked more relaxed with Miller in goal, the team won more games with Miller in goal, and that's what I care about. Obviously the hockey operation in Vancouver thought so too.

But if you rather have a goalie with nice individual stats such as save and GAA, and lose the games, please go ahead!

PS This doesn't mean I didn't like Lack, which I do. I just prefer to look at the situation in a sober way, and that is; Miller was better and I'm fine with keeping him on the team instead of Lack!

This is something I pointed out several times at the end of the season when there was speculation as to who would get moved (I said Lack). The team seemed to play more tentative with Lack in goal and a little more wide open, taking chances with Miller in goal. They just seemed more confident with Miller in goal. It's something Benning alluded to this summer as well.

Another thing I pointed out frequently which has gone largely ignored.....

Miller, who is coming off an injury and his worst full-season NHL save percentage.

Miller won't use it as an excuse, but last season included a lot of changes for him. It was his first full season in the Western Conference, playing behind a team and defense adjusting to a new coach and system, all while making tactical changes under a new goaltending coach.

Miller has played his entire career coming out of the crease to cut angles. This isn't the Canucks style though. Miller had to change his style and play within the paint this past season. Anytime you make a drastic change to your style there will be a drop off while you adjust to the new style.

I went through this with my golf swing after spending some time with a pro after (apparently) years of not swinging properly. My scores to a rather discouraging turn and it was nearly the end of summer before I actually started seeing the improved results of swinging properly.

[Fanaholic]

Why the F did he play in the playoffs? Did management really have that little confidence in Lack?

How else would this organization maintain a "goalie graveyard" status?

[ForsbergTheGreat]

The Lack bashing is interesting as he had better stats all season. We would not have even made the playoffs without him. Getting ventilated in a game happens to all goalies. Lui and Miller are not immune! Some of you have short memories. During the season when Lack had a poor game he always took responsibility and rebounded the following game with a gem (shutout or 1 goal allowed). I thought he had earned the right to start game 5... and nobody can predict the result, but I as a fan I had way more confidence in Eddie than Miller. Even if Miller was healthy I liked Eddie's game better. But what do I know... I'm just a fan. The coaches saw it differently. I will be very interested to see how this season plays out. I'm glad Eddie will get a chance to be a number one goalie even if it is elsewhere. I have less confidence in the current tandem. Interesting season ahead!

Canucks wouldn’t have made playoffs without Lack? Really though?

Prior to Millers injury canucks were sitting 2^nd in the pacific, and 5^th in the west, with 71 point in 59 games. Had Miller not got injured there is no reason why one would think he wouldn’t have continued his winning % and Canucks would have still made the playoffs. All Lack had to do is win 12 of the remaining 23 games to get canucks into playoffs. That’s exactly what he did.

The problem is people hold the back up to different standards than the starter. Did Lack play good down the stretch, sure he did. But had Miller been in, that type of play would have been expected, anything less than Lacks level of play would be considered subpar. Because of the personality, and the low expectations placed on him, Lacks good play made him a superstar.

Now imagine this, scratch Miller out of the equation, and view Lack as the go to guy. If Lack was the starter and the guy we counted on to win us games. Would his play in playoffs be considered a success? Not a chance people would have been screaming for his head and calling out Benning for not going out and getting someone with a more proven track record.

[Sedintwinpowersactivate]

was not!!!

The only people I know that think Lack is a franchise goalie that should have been worth a first are Oiler and Leaf fans....

That's right... A goalie on the downside of his career being paid as a top 10 goalie at 6m per season with the 16th best in wins, 44th best GAA and 54th best Sv% really was a great signing (stats from NHL.com). LOL. Eddie by comparison 24th in Sv% and 41th in GAA made 1.3m last season. I'm not trolling Miller to be negative. I'm just stating my opinion based on facts. Eddie had better numbers playing on the same team for less then 1/3rd the money. You also have to factor in what the extra 4.5 million last season could have added to last seasons roster. In todays salary cap world it comes down to bang for your buck! Other teams are not immune to bad decisions. I'm sure the beloved Detroit Redwings are kicking themselves at the end of last season when Jimmy Howard at 6m per season is being out played by P. Mrazek at 550K. And Howard is signed for a million years!

Look people, I'm really hoping Miller has a bounce back season and is awesome this season. I am a Canucks fan! He and Markstrom are our goalies this season and I'm hoping that they are both successful. But, this is the first season that I haven't had confidence in our goaltending entering a season since we got Luongo in 2006. I'm also nervous about our defence. This season the forwards will be our strength! The Sedins! I love the Sutter signing, Horvat will be a beast, and I'm praying Virtanen makes the team. I'm even confident that Linden Vey will be better.

[Sedintwinpowersactivate]

How else would this organization maintain a "goalie graveyard" status?

How are we a "goalie graveyard'?

Since 2006

Luongo = successful

Scheider = successful

Lack = successful

even Miller = successful (i argue not to his salary though!)

[Sedintwinpowersactivate]

Canucks wouldn’t have made playoffs without Lack? Really though?

Prior to Millers injury canucks were sitting 2^nd in the pacific, and 5^th in the west, with 71 point in 59 games. Had Miller not got injured there is no reason why one would think he wouldn’t have continued his winning % and Canucks would have still made the playoffs. All Lack had to do is win 12 of the remaining 23 games to get canucks into playoffs. That’s exactly what he did.

The problem is people hold the back up to different standards than the starter. Did Lack play good down the stretch, sure he did. But had Miller been in, that type of play would have been expected, anything less than Lacks level of play would be considered subpar. Because of the personality, and the low expectations placed on him, Lacks good play made him a superstar.

Now imagine this, scratch Miller out of the equation, and view Lack as the go to guy. If Lack was the starter and the guy we counted on to win us games. Would his play in playoffs be considered a success? Not a chance people would have been screaming for his head and calling out Benning for not going out and getting someone with a more proven track record.

I don't give a sh&$ if they are a backup or starter? The best goalie should start the majority of the games. This false love of the backup is a strange argument since the stats have just happened to favour our backups the last number of years. It's not the fans or media magically creating this goalie controversy year after year. We have just been extremely lucky to have developed 2 excellent backups that have managed to surpass the starters with their play! If the starters (Luongo and Miller) don't want a goalie controversy all they have to do is have better stats then their backups!!! It was in their hands! Simple... No controversy! Fans that argue that the goalies making the most money are better because they play more are more tested or have more pedigree are just wrong.

As a fan of the team and after having high priced goaltending for a number of years I was hoping that the team would try a different direction for the 2014-15 season with a tandem of Lack and Markstrom. If they were successful... awesome! I was fully prepared for a down season and continuing to build through the draft. Not trying to tank, but infusing youth. We could have maybe improved our defense with the extra 4.5 million available to our salary cap. That is why myself and a lot of other fans found the Miller signing strange. And we were proven right again. The backup out played the starter at a fraction of the price. Miller played pretty well last season... just he did not live up to his salary and got out played by Lack.

[ForsbergTheGreat]

I don't give a sh&$ if they are a backup or starter? The best goalie should start the majority of the games. This false love of the backup is a strange argument since the stats have just happened to favour our backups the last number of years. It's not the fans or media magically creating this goalie controversy year after year. We have just been extremely lucky to have developed 2 excellent backups that have managed to surpass the starters with their play! If the starters (Luongo and Miller) don't want a goalie controversy all they have to do is have better stats then their backups!!! It was in their hands! Simple... No controversy! Fans that argue that the goalies making the most money are better because they play more are more tested or have more pedigree are just wrong.

As a fan of the team and after having high priced goaltending for a number of years I was hoping that the team would try a different direction for the 2014-15 season with a tandem of Lack and Markstrom. If they were successful... awesome! I was fully prepared for a down season and continuing to build through the draft. Not trying to tank, but infusing youth. We could have maybe improved our defense with the extra 4.5 million available to our salary cap. That is why myself and a lot of other fans found the Miller signing strange. And we were proven right again. The backup out played the starter at a fraction of the price. Miller played pretty well last season... just he did not live up to his salary and got out played by Lack.

Your the one that said lack was the reason we made playoffs when I clearly showed he wasn't.

And you still didn't answer the question about whether lack play in playoffs was a success for a goalie who is expected to be a number one goalie.

Finally you do what most fans do and through assumption into your stance. We could sign a d for 4.5 and improve our D (which contradicts your idea of building through the drafting higher picks) cool who is that d and why is he going to sign here. Go to the d store and pick one of those guys up. Sorry but assumptions don't equal facts and assumptions are not a good business proposal. Go to the bank ask for a load and tell them you'll pay them back because you assume you'll have a good paying job in 6 month

[5 decades and no cup]

As much as I like Lack's personality, I prefer Miller as the starter. Ryan is so calm and cool in the net and I think that transfers to the rest of the team. Eddie always seems kind of nervous out there.

Miller/Marks is much better for the team than Lack/Marks.

All the best to Eddie, just the same.

[Sedintwinpowersactivate]

Your the one that said lack was the reason we made playoffs when I clearly showed he wasn't.

And you still didn't answer the question about whether lack play in playoffs was a success for a goalie who is expected to be a number one goalie.

Finally you do what most fans do and through assumption into your stance. We could sign a d for 4.5 and improve our D (which contradicts your idea of building through the drafting higher picks) cool who is that d and why is he going to sign here. Go to the d store and pick one of those guys up. Sorry but assumptions don't equal facts and assumptions are not a good business proposal. Go to the bank ask for a load and tell them you'll pay them back because you assume you'll have a good paying job in 6 month

Ask for a load? I hope you meant loan? LOL. Goaltending was the least of our problems in the playoffs. Carey Price would have had terrible stats playing goal on our team against Calgary. So I'll throw that one out. I have never said that Lack is a superstar...he isn't. He simply played better than Miller all year. The team had a 101 point season so the Miller signing must have been a success. Which I can agree with! But we have no way of knowing how the team would have played with a Lack/Markstrom tandem since it never happened. All I can base my views on last season is the facts! Lack was not a top 10 goalie in fact he wasn't that much better than Miller.... But he was better... he did get hot when Miller went down and he did help us make the playoffs! If Miller was healthy and had a .932 Sv down the stretch I'd be singing his praises. Get your facts straight! Lack was a big reason we made the playoffs.

I don't get your banking analogy? Would an extra 4.5 million of salary cap for a team that spends to the cap every year benefit our team? Just ask any of the GMs if they would like an extra 4.5 million in salary. Could we have had the same team success with a Lack/Markstrom tandem? Could we have signed somebody to help the team with the savings that would have made us better? Who knows? I don't and you don't!

[Mustapha]

Ask for a load? I hope you meant loan? LOL. Goaltending was the least of our problems in the playoffs. Carey Price would have had terrible stats playing goal on our team against Calgary. So I'll throw that one out. I have never said that Lack is a superstar...he isn't. He simply played better than Miller all year. The team had a 101 point season so the Miller signing must have been a success. Which I can agree with! But we have no way of knowing how the team would have played with a Lack/Markstrom tandem since it never happened. All I can base my views on last season is the facts! Lack was not a top 10 goalie in fact he wasn't that much better than Miller.... But he was better... he did get hot when Miller went down and he did help us make the playoffs! If Miller was healthy and had a .932 Sv down the stretch I'd be singing his praises. Get your facts straight! Lack was a big reason we made the playoffs.

I find that most of the pro-Miller posters on this forum have very short memories when it comes to actually remembering the wins Eddie came up with to get the Canucks in to the playoffs. Those last 2 wins against the Kings and the ones against the Ducks and Preds come to mind. I guess team management loves to toot their '101 point season' horn while downplaying the role Eddie played in helping them get there.

Don't worry though guys. Miller has Edmonton covered, he can beat them any day of the year. Well maybe not this new Oilers team, we will see.

That said, Eddie's gone and it's time to move on. I thought deal stunk and Benning traded the wrong goalie, but time will tell.

[Baggins]

I don't give a sh&$ if they are a backup or starter? The best goalie should start the majority of the games. This false love of the backup is a strange argument since the stats have just happened to favour our backups the last number of years. It's not the fans or media magically creating this goalie controversy year after year. We have just been extremely lucky to have developed 2 excellent backups that have managed to surpass the starters with their play! If the starters (Luongo and Miller) don't want a goalie controversy all they have to do is have better stats then their backups!!! It was in their hands! Simple... No controversy! Fans that argue that the goalies making the most money are better because they play more are more tested or have more pedigree are just wrong.

As a fan of the team and after having high priced goaltending for a number of years I was hoping that the team would try a different direction for the 2014-15 season with a tandem of Lack and Markstrom. If they were successful... awesome! I was fully prepared for a down season and continuing to build through the draft. Not trying to tank, but infusing youth. We could have maybe improved our defense with the extra 4.5 million available to our salary cap. That is why myself and a lot of other fans found the Miller signing strange. And we were proven right again. The backup out played the starter at a fraction of the price. Miller played pretty well last season... just he did not live up to his salary and got out played by Lack.

Darling had better numbers than Crawford last season. Should Chicago get rid of Crawford?

Both Talbot and Skapski had better numbers than Lundqvist. Should the Rangers get rid of Lundqvist?

Vasilevskiy had better numbers than Bishop. Should Tampa dump Bishop?

It's not actually all that uncommon for a backup to have better numbers. Teams often play tighter and take fewer risks when the backup is in. Particularly if they're not as confident in the backup.

Btw, as far as quality veteran ufa age goalies go Miller isn't really that high priced.

[Sedin Brothers]

Don't worry though guys. Miller has Edmonton covered, he can beat them any day of the year. Well maybe not this new Oilers team, we will see.

At least he will beat the teams we expect to beat. Those two losses to Arizona and Toronto almost killed us in the playoff race.

[Sedintwinpowersactivate]

Darling had better numbers than Crawford last season. Should Chicago get rid of Crawford?

Both Talbot and Skapski had better numbers than Lundqvist. Should the Rangers get rid of Lundqvist?

Vasilevskiy had better numbers than Bishop. Should Tampa dump Bishop?

It's not actually all that uncommon for a backup to have better numbers. Teams often play tighter and take fewer risks when the backup is in. Particularly if they're not as confident in the backup.

Btw, as far as quality veteran ufa age goalies go Miller isn't really that high priced.

I agree somewhat that backups can have better stats then a starter if they play a lot less games the numbers can work out that way. Vasilevskiy and Skapski eg. Vasilevskiy is also a very highly rated prospect.

Darling got starts in the playoffs over Crawford until Crawford got hot!

Talbot got traded for a 1st and 2nd pick.

Lundqvist and Bishop had 10 top stats all year. And were studs on stud defensive teams. And are more in their prime. Miller was a low end #1 goalie last season. He has seen his stats decline every year and is 35 years of age.

Lack had better stats then both Lui and Miller in back to back years. While playing a fair number of games. That is a pattern. You have to look at it case by case.

[BlackRedYellow]

I agree somewhat that backups can have better stats then a starter if they play a lot less games the numbers can work out that way. Vasilevskiy and Skapski eg. Vasilevskiy is also a very highly rated prospect.

Darling got starts in the playoffs over Crawford until Crawford got hot!

Talbot got traded for a 1st and 2nd pick.

Lundqvist and Bishop had 10 top stats all year. And were studs on stud defensive teams. And are more in their prime. Miller was a low end #1 goalie last season. He has seen his stats decline every year and is 35 years of age.

Lack had better stats then both Lui and Miller in back to back years. While playing a fair number of games. That is a pattern. You have to look at it case by case.

You really don't get it, eh?

The individual stats is not that important when looking at goalies who's playing for the same team!

Lack lost more games than Miller (of course %). How do you explain that when you're shouting out that he's the better goalie?

The team played more relaxed with Miller in the crease than with Lack. How do you explain that?

The whole Vancouver organization wanted Miller to stay, not Lack. How do you explain that?

The other back-ups in the league returned a better trade value then Lack. How do you explain that? (You know better than all of the teams GM's!?)

Well, it must be because the whole hockey world thinks Lack is a better goalie than Miller, because he had better individual stats... right?

Sigh...

[KeslerPlaysLikeACanadian]

Darling had better numbers than Crawford last season. Should Chicago get rid of Crawford?

Both Talbot and Skapski had better numbers than Lundqvist. Should the Rangers get rid of Lundqvist?

Vasilevskiy had better numbers than Bishop. Should Tampa dump Bishop?

It's not actually all that uncommon for a backup to have better numbers. Teams often play tighter and take fewer risks when the backup is in. Particularly if they're not as confident in the backup.

Btw, as far as quality veteran ufa age goalies go Miller isn't really that high priced.

C'mon Baggins, don't you know that SV% doesn't need a context? I guess the best part of this utterly annoying conversation is SedinPowers' refusal to acknowledge anyone else's points. Great stuff.

[KeslerPlaysLikeACanadian]

You really don't get it, eh?

The individual stats is not that important when looking at goalies who's playing for the same team!

Lack lost more games than Miller (of course %). How do you explain that when you're shouting out that he's the better goalie?

The team played more relaxed with Miller in the crease than with Lack. How do you explain that?

The whole Vancouver organization wanted Miller to stay, not Lack. How do you explain that?

The other back-ups in the league returned a better trade value then Lack. How do you explain that? (You know better than all of the teams GM's!?)

Well, it must be because the whole hockey world thinks Lack is a better goalie than Miller, because he had better individual stats... right?

Sigh...

No one checked his save percentage.

Obviously the Lack cheerleaders haven't read the article that breaks down his save percentage by shot quality. Link anyone?

[Sedintwinpowersactivate]

You really don't get it, eh?

The individual stats is not that important when looking at goalies who's playing for the same team!

Lack lost more games than Miller (of course %). How do you explain that when you're shouting out that he's the better goalie?

The team played more relaxed with Miller in the crease than with Lack. How do you explain that?

The whole Vancouver organization wanted Miller to stay, not Lack. How do you explain that?

The other back-ups in the league returned a better trade value then Lack. How do you explain that? (You know better than all of the teams GM's!?)

Well, it must be because the whole hockey world thinks Lack is a better goalie than Miller, because he had better individual stats... right?

Sigh...

Ha ha ha! This whole conversation is utterly comical to me. I will attempt to answer your questions/insults.

You really don't get it, eh? This is trolling

The individual stats is not that important when looking at goalies who's playing for the same team! Since when? Maybe if the backup plays less then 10 games

Lack lost more games than Miller (of course %). How do you explain that when you're shouting out that he's the better goalie? I'll give you that because it is a fact. However one could argue that he got the easier competition, less back to backs and played more at the beginning of the season when the team was motivated for a bounce back year.

The team played more relaxed with Miller in the crease than with Lack. How do you explain that? Says who? You?

The whole Vancouver organization wanted Miller to stay, not Lack. How do you explain that? And organizations have never picked the wrong goalie or made a mistake? It was my understanding that the decision to move Lack was not unified. But that info is through team 1040 and is hearsay. How do you know it was a unified decision?

The other back-ups in the league returned a better trade value then Lack. How do you explain that? (You know better than all of the teams GM's!?)

I thought Talbot was the best available followed by Lack. The Lehner and Martin Jones trades were shocking to me and a lot of others as the discussed on TSN. Those trades involved 2 GMs that liked them better (not all the leagues GMs as you have suggested). The return for Lack was pitiful, but I never said Lack is an amazing destined to be a star goalie in this league. I simply said after beating out Lui the season before I thought he had earned a chance to start the year as the teams number one goalie. The change in management changed that.

Well, it must be because the whole hockey world thinks Lack is a better goalie than Miller, because he had better individual stats... right?

If Miller is so great... why didn't he sign elsewhere? Do you seriously think that Vancouver was his first choice? Nobody else wanted him! I retract my last statement as that can not be substantiated. At 1.3 million Lack is a better goalie than 6m Miller. My opinion. You are welcome to yours!

Sigh... This is trolling!

These responses to myself expressing my opinions are laughable. I think i'll take a break from the CDC for a while as I have to look after my 3 daughters this weekend as Mom is on a girls weekend. Be Nice Everyone!