Vegas Odds, Bubble players, and the season (discussion)

[J.I.A.H.N]

Well, 4 games into the pre-season and I have the same feelings of the Canuck roster, the same feelings of the up and coming season.

First off, the Vegas odds on the Canucks winning the cup are 85 to 1, and I have a lot more confidence in their ability to analyze the reality of the NHL, then ours.

Simply put, that puts us in the 25 OA position, according to the Vegas odds makers, and I would imagine they gave us the benefit of the doubt, and shined up our chances just a little, so they can take a little more money from those that think, that is good enough odds to bet on the Canucks.

As for our bubble players, Hansen, Vey, Higgins, Prust, Weber, Corrado, and Kenins, well........they just are not bubble players.

With the exception of Gaunce and maybe Hutton making the team, why would Vancouver even consider exposing any of these players or trading anyone of these players now, when their replacements, would gain invaluable experience playing in their appropriate leagues and are not measurably better. I can see some vets moving out at the deadline, but not before.

Yes, McCann has played well, but will gain invaluable experience playing his last year of junior for a winning franchise, and playing 20 to 25 minutes a game, in all situations, instead of 10 to 12 minutes a game in the NHL. Patience is a virtue in this case and we will not burn a year of his ELC, while he gets stronger...you wait and see how he develops......yes he is showing he belongs but don't get too excited and wait a season....trust me, it will be better for both McCann and the Canucks in the long term.

Virtanen needs to experience a season of dominating his opposition, it will help his offense, and again, he isn't head and shoulders better than any of the above players.....he should stay in junior, IMO.

Hutton, well he would sure benefit from a whole year in the AHL, playing top minutes, on the PP and PK.....he will get called up for injuries and will not burn that 1st year of ELC, so all in all, its a win win situation for him.

Finally, the league and in particular the division has gotten stronger, we have not seen a Vancouver team that scores a lot of goals, and that is probably what Vegas sees when doling out the odds.

I see a lot of promise in our youngsters, but I do not see where we improved, and they are really only providing hope, and not additional skill at this point........

As for Gaunce, he looks ready for his role, and may surprise us a little, his maturity is obvious, and I could see him ending up our 4th line center, with Prust and Dorsett on his wings.......Vey may develop a very sore butt by the end of the year sitting in the press box.

Markstrom, well we can only hope what he is showing now is what he has become...truly!

Anyways, it is sure good to see the promise in our young players!

Cheers

[Canucks-12]

Canucks might finish in the bottom 3 of the Western Conference this season.

[homersexual]

Canucks might finish in the bottom 3 of the Western Conference this season.

I think Canucks will be ahead of Arizona, Colorado, Edmonton, Dallas and San Jose in the West. So bottom 6.

[JeremyCuddles]

Canucks might finish in the bottom 3 of the Western Conference this season.

Canucks "might" win the cup as well.

[48MPHSlapShot]

People said the same thing about Horvat that they are saying about McCann. Obviously McCann and Horvat are different players, but I'm seeing a lot of parallels here.

Besides, didn't McCann already play big minutes in all situations for one of the better teams in the OHL last season?

Seems kind of redundant to me.

[BCNeil]

There is a little bit of nuance in odds. Just because they are the 25th ranked team in regards to winning the cup, its not the same as being 25th place.

[bobby-b]

No matter how much you believe, I mean really really really believe in the young ones... those ODDS will hardly change... for years !!

[SaintPatrick33]

No matter how much you believe, I mean really really really believe in the young ones... those ODDS will hardly change... for years !!

Is it because we are all canucks?

[tyhee]

As for our bubble players, Hansen, Vey, Higgins, Prust, Weber, Corrado, and Kenins, well........they just are not bubble players.

With the exception of Gaunce and maybe Hutton making the team, why would Vancouver even consider exposing any of these players or trading anyone of these players now, when their replacements, would gain invaluable experience playing in their appropriate leagues and are not measurably better. I can see some vets moving out at the deadline, but not before.

...

One thing to note is your qualifier that the replacements be "not measurably better." I presume that this means that there's no necessity to list reasons why a player who is measurably better should make the team.

The way you present the theory of your point in the paragraph above is something I can agree with-in fact, it would seem silly not to. The application of it to the individual players is open to some debate, though.

...

Hutton, well he would sure benefit from a whole year in the AHL, playing top minutes, on the PP and PK.....he will get called up for injuries and will not burn that 1st year of ELC, so all in all, its a win win situation for him.

...

I don't see how Hutton would not burn that 1st year of ELC. Those contracts only slide for players aged 18 or 19, while Hutton is 22. The maximum of 9 NHL games doesn't apply to him.

I also don't think it will affect when he can become an UFA, since he is a 22 year old rookie pro so cannot possibly get 7 accrued seasons in before reaching the age of 27. The first requirement for UFA are 7 accrued seasons OR age 27.

It won't affect how quickly he reaches the two professional seasons required for salary arbitration rights. It COULD affect how quickly he would require waivers to be sent to the minors, as he has 3 years or 70 NHL games, whichever comes first.

I don't see the 70 NHL game waiver eligibility being much of a consideration.

There then is the question of whether he is measurably better than one of the players you've listed as bubble players that you don't consider bubble players. If he has clearly shown himself to be better then it gets difficult to justify keeping him off the team.

I agree with you that some period of time in the AHL wouldn't hurt Hutton's development. I don't know whether it would help it-he's no 18 or 19 year old but an apparently mature 22 year old who so far in preseason appears to play a smart NHL game and may be close enough to being ready that he could learn what he needs to in the NHL without harming him any.

We don't know how the rest of the preseason will go, but he's looked good enough so far that it would be easy to argue that he is measurably better than Corrado (and perhaps a few other non-bubble players d-men.)

...

Yes, McCann has played well, but will gain invaluable experience playing his last year of junior for a winning franchise, and playing 20 to 25 minutes a game, in all situations, instead of 10 to 12 minutes a game in the NHL. Patience is a virtue in this case and we will not burn a year of his ELC, while he gets stronger...you wait and see how he develops......yes he is showing he belongs but don't get too excited and wait a season....trust me, it will be better for both McCann and the Canucks in the long term.

...

Ok, McCann is only 19 and not yet physically mature. Another year in junior, so long as he can stay motivated, shouldn't hurt and may be good for his development.

Here again we run into your "not measurably better" qualifier.. The preseason isn't over but so far to most I think McCann has seemed to be a noticeably and measurably better player than Vey.

If indeed there is at the end of preseason that noticeable difference, then on the basis of your "not measurably better" qualifier the argument won't apply to McCann. While it shouldn't be necessary to do so, I will mention that in addition to things like team improvement from having the better player (in this case not a big consideration imo) there is a factor that I don't think most would consider important, but I do.

If McCann shows himself to be better than Vey and is sent down in favour of Vey staying, then not only do the Canucks have a prospect who has it in his head that the team has screwed him over, but the team loses any credibiilty about:

-training camp in general-why should a junior player try to earn a spot when he won't get it even if he earns it?

-the team's statement made last preseason and repeated this week that if a young player is better than a veteran the team will make room for him. It could turn out to have been an unwise statement to make.

Having a player disgruntled because the team lied to him and screwed him out of a spot on the team may or may not have a long term adverse consequence, but there is some risk to it.

Unless Vey gives a considerably better performance or McCann a considerably worse performance before the preseason is over, it would be imo strain any credibility the organization has to start the season with Vey as the 4C while sending McCann back to junior.

[Ron_Burgundy]

Solid post.

The one argument I'd make is that it's tough to say whether a player will develop more in the NHL or juniors. They both have their pros and their cons. For example the NHL puts you up against tougher competition, which might drive you to faster development (Horvat is a great example of this) but sacrifices ice time and experience in key situations. On the other hand, playing in the juniors - like you said - lets players get better at playing high ice time, on the PK, PP, etc.

I think that Gaunce and McCann should both make the team - with Hutton getting the 9 game treatment. At Christmas, McCann can play for team Canada in the World Juniors and kick ass.

[Baggins]

If McCann shows himself to be better than Vey and is sent down in favour of Vey staying, then not only do the Canucks have a prospect who has it in his head that the team has screwed him over, but the team loses any credibiilty about:

-training camp in general-why should a junior player try to earn a spot when he won't get it even if he earns it?

-the team's statement made last preseason and repeated this week that if a young player is better than a veteran the team will make room for him. It could turn out to have been an unwise statement to make.

Having a player disgruntled because the team lied to him and screwed him out of a spot on the team may or may not have a long term adverse consequence, but there is some risk to it.

Unless Vey gives a considerably better performance or McCann a considerably worse performance before the preseason is over, it would be imo strain any credibility the organization has to start the season with Vey as the 4C while sending McCann back to junior.

Although he's completed his rookie season Vey is still a prospect himself. I think you're going full bore drama queen with the "getting screwed over" bit. Are you going to waive a prospect to give a prospect a tryout? Because we traded a second for Vey he will very likely get an opportunity this year to prove himself. Just as Baertschi will. That's not lying, it's asset management. That said with Higgins injured to start the season there is a spot for McCann to get 9 meaningful games to prove himself and go from there. If he does well it could mean moving a veteran like Higgins or Hansen to open a spot. trying him out on wing could be a clue to the teams intention.

You may see it as getting screwed over but these prospects have million$ of reasons to try hard in camp and preseason. Even if they are sent down. They also understand asset management plays into decisions in a cap world.

[alfstonker]

Solid post.

The one argument I'd make is that it's tough to say whether a player will develop more in the NHL or juniors. They both have their pros and their cons. For example the NHL puts you up against tougher competition, which might drive you to faster development (Horvat is a great example of this) but sacrifices ice time and experience in key situations. On the other hand, playing in the juniors - like you said - lets players get better at playing high ice time, on the PK, PP, etc.

I think that Gaunce and McCann should both make the team - with Hutton getting the 9 game treatment. At Christmas, McCann can play for team Canada in the World Juniors and kick ass.

I'm not sure going back to juniors would help a guy like McCann.

Firstly you can tell from the way he talks in interviews that he thinks he is making an impression and he seems excited about staying. I think demotion while maybe not ruining his confidence will certainly gut him and may take him half a season to get over.

He looks to me like he is as ready as he will ever be and staying up may be the thing that spurs a character like him to work even harder. I know it is hard to tell but so far he doesn't look "weak" out there amongst men and surely that is what matters.

I would also think 10-13 mins in a hard NHL game will sharpen and teach him just as much a 20 mins in a junior game. As I say it depends on the type of character we are talking about.

He is loving it out there, anyone can see that in his eyes and in the after game interviews he is hyped.

Learning to cope with disappointment can be character building but fanning a brush fire of enthusiasm can be more productive in the end.

Sadly I can't say the same for Virtanen. I just think there are too many missing parts to his game at this point and another year in the juniors would be best.

I think he came into the preseason thinking that big hitting would keep him up but has slowly been taught that there is much more to a top 6 role than just hitting. He needs to develop better defence and become more focussed and aware of his team mates in the build up. These are things that should not be coached at NHL level as Kassian bore witness to.

[Pete M]

Hutton is ready...the Canucks need this type of player. He is better than most on the Canucks "D".

[Attila Umbrus]

I would personally like to see the Canucks groom both McCann and Virtanen for the 9 games, and bring them along like Horvat last year. Playing them in rotating games until Higgins is back. Then send Virtanen back to Junior so he can dominate the rest of the year with the Hitmen and his new NHL experience. I really think McCann should stay and as the OP put...Vey will be sitting a lot this year. But can't give up on him just yet after trading a 2nd rounder for him.

Gaunce should play Higgins role until he's back. Once Higgins comes back they will have to decide whether to keep him or Vey around...but in all reality it will be Vey since Gaunce don't need waivers. But who knows with this team and their age. We may be able to keep all the kids around due to injuries.

Plus Hutton will definietly be first Dman call up, will be exciting to see what he can do.

I think this year will kinda be just like our pre-season has been going. The youth will be coming in and out of the line up as needed. Being tested through the whole year until the trade dead line. If Benning likes what he see's in the young guns they will force his hand in making some trades...which I really hope he does to capitalize on our aging assets.

But who tha hell knows lol...

[TimberWolf]

Everyone is different. A one size fits all development style would have had Horvat back in junior last season and that would have been a mistake while say forcing Shink into the NHL would have been bad as well. Different players, different sizes and different development paths. Doesn't make one or the other a success or bust at this stage.

Each rookie should be developed individually based on their strengths and readiness.

[bobby-b]

Is it because we are all canucks?

I'm a Canuck... but I can't skate... so "JUST LIKE YOU"... I sit in the stands... while I "follow" the action, Not Lead It.

Cause I'm only a fan... and a Canuck.

[alfstonker]

I would personally like to see the Canucks groom both McCann and Virtanen for the 9 games, and bring them along like Horvat last year. Playing them in rotating games until Higgins is back. Then send Virtanen back to Junior so he can dominate the rest of the year with the Hitmen and his new NHL experience. I really think McCann should stay and as the OP put...Vey will be sitting a lot this year. But can't give up on him just yet after trading a 2nd rounder for him.

Gaunce should play Higgins role until he's back. Once Higgins comes back they will have to decide whether to keep him or Vey around...but in all reality it will be Vey since Gaunce don't need waivers. But who knows with this team and their age. We may be able to keep all the kids around due to injuries.

Plus Hutton will definietly be first Dman call up, will be exciting to see what he can do.

I think this year will kinda be just like our pre-season has been going. The youth will be coming in and out of the line up as needed. Being tested through the whole year until the trade dead line. If Benning likes what he see's in the young guns they will force his hand in making some trades...which I really hope he does to capitalize on our aging assets.

But who tha hell knows lol...

You just don't get it.

Virtanen is well short in a number of facets of the game. What use would giving him 9 games serve?

If Virtanen is not handled properly he is in danger of becoming another Kassian. A player hurried into the NHL just because he has a physical game.

We need to ensure Virtanen gets the coaching and patience he deserves.

[J.I.A.H.N]

One thing to note is your qualifier that the replacements be "not measurably better." I presume that this means that there's no necessity to list reasons why a player who is measurably better should make the team.

The way you present the theory of your point in the paragraph above is something I can agree with-in fact, it would seem silly not to. The application of it to the individual players is open to some debate, though.

I don't see how Hutton would not burn that 1st year of ELC. Those contracts only slide for players aged 18 or 19, while Hutton is 22. The maximum of 9 NHL games doesn't apply to him.

I also don't think it will affect when he can become an UFA, since he is a 22 year old rookie pro so cannot possibly get 7 accrued seasons in before reaching the age of 27. The first requirement for UFA are 7 accrued seasons OR age 27.

It won't affect how quickly he reaches the two professional seasons required for salary arbitration rights. It COULD affect how quickly he would require waivers to be sent to the minors, as he has 3 years or 70 NHL games, whichever comes first.

I don't see the 70 NHL game waiver eligibility being much of a consideration.

There then is the question of whether he is measurably better than one of the players you've listed as bubble players that you don't consider bubble players. If he has clearly shown himself to be better then it gets difficult to justify keeping him off the team.

I agree with you that some period of time in the AHL wouldn't hurt Hutton's development. I don't know whether it would help it-he's no 18 or 19 year old but an apparently mature 22 year old who so far in preseason appears to play a smart NHL game and may be close enough to being ready that he could learn what he needs to in the NHL without harming him any.

We don't know how the rest of the preseason will go, but he's looked good enough so far that it would be easy to argue that he is measurably better than Corrado (and perhaps a few other non-bubble players d-men.)

Ok, McCann is only 19 and not yet physically mature. Another year in junior, so long as he can stay motivated, shouldn't hurt and may be good for his development.

Here again we run into your "not measurably better" qualifier.. The preseason isn't over but so far to most I think McCann has seemed to be a noticeably and measurably better player than Vey.

If indeed there is at the end of preseason that noticeable difference, then on the basis of your "not measurably better" qualifier the argument won't apply to McCann. While it shouldn't be necessary to do so, I will mention that in addition to things like team improvement from having the better player (in this case not a big consideration imo) there is a factor that I don't think most would consider important, but I do.

If McCann shows himself to be better than Vey and is sent down in favour of Vey staying, then not only do the Canucks have a prospect who has it in his head that the team has screwed him over, but the team loses any credibiilty about:

-training camp in general-why should a junior player try to earn a spot when he won't get it even if he earns it?

-the team's statement made last preseason and repeated this week that if a young player is better than a veteran the team will make room for him. It could turn out to have been an unwise statement to make.

Having a player disgruntled because the team lied to him and screwed him out of a spot on the team may or may not have a long term adverse consequence, but there is some risk to it.

Unless Vey gives a considerably better performance or McCann a considerably worse performance before the preseason is over, it would be imo strain any credibility the organization has to start the season with Vey as the 4C while sending McCann back to junior.

So tonite as I am responding to Tyee's post, I still have not changed my mind

Virtanen has a goal and assist, and McCann hasn't showed much, yet I don't want them here this year..........not because they don't derserve to have that chance, but because of it.

Virtanen needs to score goals. practice setting up players........he has everything else, already!

McCann appears and disappears, and another year in juniors will cement his abilities

Both of these players can not afford to sit on the bench or miss games, for the teams long term future

I have wrestled with the question of 10 to 12 minutes of NHL no guaranteed ice-time verses a guaranteed 20 to 25 minutes a night in junior..............and I have to take "junior" for their sake......

The only thing I would argue with you about Tyee is that no young player that is sent back to junior is going to regress or pout, they normally are very high and all their team mates usually will keep that excitement going for them for a while.....unless the kid shows back there with a big head..........but that normally doesn't happen to those types of players......they have suffered through cuts before even when at elite level.

Just for the record Tyee, I am always a fan of yours, even when I disagree........a little

Cheers

[J.I.A.H.N]

Now Virtanen has 3 points and I still feel the same way! Even if the line looks awesome! Damn!

After all.......it is just the Oilers!

[Johnny Shotgun]

Face it the regular season is just for Canadian fans to fill the arenas, buy merchandise, subscribe to pay per view and dream. NBC has already this summer given Bettman his orders as to which American club will win he Cup. LA will be given the free ride this year.