Does/Did Tanking Work?

[EdgarM]

1 hour ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

 

Don’t forget the Islanders

Dal Colle(5) Reinhart (4), Strome (5), Niederreiter (5), Tavares (1), Okposo (7), DiPietro (1), Torres (5), Connolly (5), Luongo (4), Brewer (5), Dumount (3), Redden (2), Kasparatis (5) Lachance (4) Scissons (6) Chyzowski (2)

That’s 17 picks in span of 25 years.  That’s also a total of 11 playoff series and not making it out of the first round in the past 21 years. 

Well you "tank boys", what say you on that tidbit of information? Should that not make them a dynasty by now? 

[thaji]

With tanking I think you have to be lucky to get the top 3 picks in the right draft. Sure Edmonton has had a lot of 1st overall picks but you can say they only had 1 franchise player from it, maybe 2 if you consider Hall in that. So I think tanking can work but you have to be strategic about it. 

Also what lot of people forget is that when you Tank its not the top picks in the first round that matter, its also the top picks in the other rounds, specially 2nd round. Where you are really getting potential first round talent that dropped. Edmonton's biggest issue was outside their 1st overall picks they drafted like crap in 2nd round. Towes and Kane are great but its the Keith, Seabrook 2nd round picks thats made them a good team. 

Regardless if you are tanking or a regular contender DRAFTING is the most important thing. We can all agree the reason Canucks are in this position is years of crap drafting since 2003. If even one  or 2 of Grabner, Jensen, Schoreder, White had panned out we could have used as trade baits when we were good to fill those D & secondary scoring roles but sadly when you don't have anything to trade you are only left with free agents. 

 

 

[EagleShield]

Tanking doesn't guarantee a cup, but it's almost a guarantee you won't win one without tanking. In the salary cap era, there is a striking patter about drafting top picks immediately prior to winning it all. Or at least drafting high...

2005/06 - Carolina - Staal (2nd 2003), Ladd (4th 2004), Johnson (3rd 2005)

2006/07 - Anaheim - Bobby Ryan (2nd 2005)

2007/08 - Detroit - Got Zetterberg in the 7th and Datsyuk in the 6th - EXEMPT

2008/09 - Pittsburgh - Fleury (1st 2003), Malkin (2nd 2004), Crosby (1st 2005), Staal (2nd 2006)

2009/10 - Chicago - Barker (3rd 2004), Toews (3rd 2006), Kane (1st 2007)

201011 - Boston - Kessel/Seguin (5th 2006/2nd 2010)

2011/12 - LA - Hickey (4th 2007), Doughty (2nd 2008), Schenn (5th 2009)

[King_Canuckian]

I did a pretty informal study some time ago about high draft picks and going on to win the cup.  I believe #2 picks might have had a slight edge over #1 picks.

But most of the teams that have had success tanking (Pittsburgh, Chicago, Quebec/Colorado) had to be bad for several years and get multiple top picks.  Whereas other teams that have been bad for several years (Buffalo, Washington, Columbus, Atlanta/Winnipeg) have risen marginally only to drop back down.

In short, we have evidence both for and against tanking, but our fans are too fickle to accept long-term losing.  So the high-calibre talent we need is not the McDavid/Matthews type, but rather a high-end defenseman that logs a ton of minutes, and has a very good two-way game (Lidstrom, Doughty, Keith, Chara, Niedermayer, Pronger).  Edler, Hamhuis, and Tanev are good, but not in the same league as those others.  And stingy goaltending wouldn't hurt our cause either.

[King_Canuckian]

1 hour ago, EagleShield said:

Tanking doesn't guarantee a cup, but it's almost a guarantee you won't win one without tanking. In the salary cap era, there is a striking patter about drafting top picks immediately prior to winning it all. Or at least drafting high...

2005/06 - Carolina - Staal (2nd 2003), Ladd (4th 2004), Johnson (3rd 2005)

2006/07 - Anaheim - Bobby Ryan (2nd 2005)

2007/08 - Detroit - Got Zetterberg in the 7th and Datsyuk in the 6th - EXEMPT

2008/09 - Pittsburgh - Fleury (1st 2003), Malkin (2nd 2004), Crosby (1st 2005), Staal (2nd 2006)

2009/10 - Chicago - Barker (3rd 2004), Toews (3rd 2006), Kane (1st 2007)

201011 - Boston - Kessel/Seguin (5th 2006/2nd 2010)

2011/12 - LA - Hickey (4th 2007), Doughty (2nd 2008), Schenn (5th 2009)

Interesting information, but you fail to mention that:

2005/06 - Ladd only played in 17 of the Canes 25 playoff games, while Johnson never played a game for the Canes.
2006/07 - This draft pick was not as much a result of tanking as it was a lucky draw (that was the draft order determined by lottery since there had been no 2004/05 season, and Ryan didn't even play a game with Anaheim until 2007/08
2007/08 - exempt like you said
2008/09 - Yes, this is a case for tanking.  Pittsburgh was bad for a LONG time
2009/10 - Barker finished that season with Minnesota - hardly a case for being included in the tanking argument.  Kane and Toews are of course two major pieces of their team.
2010/11 - Kessel was their pick who got traded to Toronto, which landed Boston the #2 overall pick that got Seguin.  And he played 13 out of the 25 games in the playoffs that year - hardly a key contributor, where the team was led by veterans, and... let's just call it preferential treatment.
2011/12 - Thomas Hickey never suited up for L.A. and Schenn has never contributed to L.A. playoff hockey.  Doughty on the other hand was a fantastic draft pick, but they were led by solid trades for veterans, Quick, and a coach that got into the right situation at the right time.

[MoneypuckOverlord]

7 hours ago, EdgarM said:

So if we look at your theory about top 3 picks, 13 of 63 players picked in the last 20 years since 1995 have won cups. The last one being Seguin who was drafted in 2010. So roughly only 20% of top 3 draft picks get you a cup. Those are not great odds if you are relying on that person on bringing you a championship.

20%?  i will kindly take these odds. I'm not saying in hopes of wining Stanley cup also,(well of course we want to win a bloody cup)  a top 3 pick does not guarantee a Stanley cup nor did I say that, my point was, most of the top teams in the league have a chance or is currently stanley cup contender has a top 3 pick in their line up.    They have at least one in their line up.  Heck our best players for the past 15 years is a top 3 pick, and we have 2 of them.

 

Lets not forget also

Ottawa Senators "back in the day" Danly Healty (2) and Jason Spezza (2) power houses for the Ottawa senators for a good few years, were were they drafted?  (Jason Spezza currently playing for the power house Dallas Stars.

Mondern day Senators, they are a decent team today, border line contender, but they do have Kyle Turris (3) and Bobby Ryan, (2) in their lineup.

L.A Kings, Marion Gaborik (3rd overall, how the hell did I forget these guys) (Drew Doughty number 2)

San Jose Sharks, Joe Thornton (number 1, although he's yet to reach the finals, he is a big part of the Strong team).

 

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?type=lea#&navid=nav-stn-league

 

Just going to use the current top 7 teams in the leauge right now as an example

1 Dallas Stars, Tyler Seguin  2nd overall 2010 and Jason Spezza 2001

2 Montreal -  Alex Galchenyuk 3rd overall

3 Captials,- Alex Ovechkin number 1 overall,  Nicklas Backstrom (although he's not a top 3 he was close at number 4 and should have been a top 3 pick, in 2006, he's much better then Jordan Staal and Eric Johnson)

4 New York Rangers.  LOL Rick Nash (drafted number 1 overall in 2002)

5 L.A Kings Drew Doughty number 2 overall, Anze Kopitar ( he was drafted 11th, but was ranked by ISS as the 3rd best player in the 2005 nhl entry draft, the reason why he dropped was because teams didn't believe in a Slovenian player ever making the NHL.

6 New York Islanders (John Tavares number 1)

7 Detroit Red Wings (an exception to the rule, but recently a lot of early exits in the playoffs)

8 St.Louis Blues, Alex Petriangelo (he's a number 4 pick) Jay Bouqmeester (number 3 overall)

will the team Tank?  they will not, and they will not purposely lose games, I remember back in 1999, the team didn't tank, they didn't.  the Canucks just sucked very badly that year, and we ended up with a 2nd pick, acquired a 3rd pick and the rest is history.   I'm not saying the team will tank, but for the sake of the future of the Canucks I will more then be happy to see the Canucks with a top 3 pick for Obvious reasons. 

 

We have to look long term now, no one is going to remember a crappy season, and a 13th pick, do you rather have a top 3 pick, or see this team go out with pride and win some useless games and end up with a early teens pick over a few games of pride?  I think having one of those top 3 players will be franchice impacting.  Especially if its Chyrcrun or a Austin Mathews.

[Nuxfanabroad]

As our early-season fortunes just sank

We'd inevitably ponder 'the tank'

Then 'dem dissers would chime

That ol' Oiler-mime

Tired reply, you could take to the bank

 

Yet if the meat & potatoes just stank

Come late-June, why we'd have this to thank

So do we play for the now,

Or prospect gold somehow?

For a fine young successor to Hank...

 

So team's dreary, dismal & Dank

Goin' bonkers, past coaches walked plank

So when asked, 'What to do?'

I'll just reply - we're through

Like our 'O', my mind's long gone blank.

 

[MoneypuckOverlord]

lets lets not go in circles. 

 

We know this team is not "tanking" or throwing games away on purpose.

that said, it doesn't mean they cant suck and finish low.

 

lets look at the top 4 teams or contenders in the NHL.

Chicago Blackhawks.  Has been a threat for many years now.  Top 3 picks on their team are Patrick Kane 1st overall in 2007, and Jonathan Teows 3rd overall in 2006

 

Los Angeles Kings.  They have arguebaly the best dman in the world, he was drafted number 2 in 2008, and they have Sniper Marion Gaborik who was drafted number 3, in 2000

 

Montreal Canadiens.  They have Alex Galchenyuk, (3rd overall) and Carey Price (5th overall)

New York Rangers.  New York Rangers have Rick Nash 1st overall in 2000"

 

heck even your very own Vancouver canucks, when they were contenders, (pretty much the Entire time when Mike Gillis was here) our teams best players were top 3 picks, Sedins (2 and 3) and lets not forget Bobby Lui who was drafted number 4. 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

1 hour ago, MoneypuckOverlord said:

20%?  i will kindly take these odds. I'm not saying in hopes of wining Stanley cup also,(well of course we want to win a bloody cup)  a top 3 pick does not guarantee a Stanley cup nor did I say that, my point was, most of the top teams in the league have a chance or is currently stanley cup contender has a top 3 pick in their line up.    They have at least one in their line up.  Heck our best players for the past 15 years is a top 3 pick, and we have 2 of them.

 

Lets not forget also

Ottawa Senators "back in the day" Danly Healty (2) and Jason Spezza (2) power houses for the Ottawa senators for a good few years, were were they drafted?  (Jason Spezza currently playing for the power house Dallas Stars.

Mondern day Senators, they are a decent team today, border line contender, but they do have Kyle Turris (3) and Bobby Ryan, (2) in their lineup.

L.A Kings, Marion Gaborik (3rd overall, how the hell did I forget these guys) (Drew Doughty number 2)

San Jose Sharks, Joe Thornton (number 1, although he's yet to reach the finals, he is a big part of the Strong team).

 

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?type=lea#&navid=nav-stn-league

 

Just going to use the current top 7 teams in the leauge right now as an example

1 Dallas Stars, Tyler Seguin  2nd overall 2010 and Jason Spezza 2001

2 Montreal -  Alex Galchenyuk 3rd overall

3 Captials,- Alex Ovechkin number 1 overall,  Nicklas Backstrom (although he's not a top 3 he was close at number 4 and should have been a top 3 pick, in 2006, he's much better then Jordan Staal and Eric Johnson)

4 New York Rangers.  LOL Rick Nash (drafted number 1 overall in 2002)

5 L.A Kings Drew Doughty number 2 overall, Anze Kopitar ( he was drafted 11th, but was ranked by ISS as the 3rd best player in the 2005 nhl entry draft, the reason why he dropped was because teams didn't believe in a Slovenian player ever making the NHL.

6 New York Islanders (John Tavares number 1)

7 Detroit Red Wings (an exception to the rule, but recently a lot of early exits in the playoffs)

8 St.Louis Blues, Alex Petriangelo (he's a number 4 pick) Jay Bouqmeester (number 3 overall)

will the team Tank?  they will not, and they will not purposely lose games, I remember back in 1999, the team didn't tank, they didn't.  the Canucks just sucked very badly that year, and we ended up with a 2nd pick, acquired a 3rd pick and the rest is history.   I'm not saying the team will tank, but for the sake of the future of the Canucks I will more then be happy to see the Canucks with a top 3 pick for Obvious reasons. 

 

We have to look long term now, no one is going to remember a crappy season, and a 13th pick, do you rather have a top 3 pick, or see this team go out with pride and win some useless games and end up with a early teens pick over a few games of pride?  I think having one of those top 3 players will be franchice impacting.  Especially if its Chyrcrun or a Austin Mathews.

If those picks are soo important than why are half the names you mentioned players that have been traded?

[The Lock]

4 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

If those picks are soo important than why are half the names you mentioned players that have been traded?

Because he wants to skew things to make it sound better than it actually is.

And apparently 20% is a risk worth taking for the team to lose who knows how much money in ticket sales and who knows how many years we end up at the bottom....

[ForsbergTheGreat]

Just now, The Lock said:

Because he wants to skew things to make it sound better than it actually is.

Well if that's the case I'm sure barker is still looking for a job. perhaps signing him again will increase our odds....

[The Lock]

1 minute ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Well if that's the case I'm sure barker is still looking for a job. perhaps signing him again will increase our odds....

We should get Patrick Stefan while we're at it. I bet he's available.

[flickyoursedin]

6 hours ago, EdgarM said:

Well you "tank boys", what say you on that tidbit of information? Should that not make them a dynasty by now? 

Terrible drafting Filip Forsberg was rated higher than Reinhart and Fowler was rated higher than Niederrieter. They are a decent team but they have drafted horribly and not just with their top picks. To be a successful team you have to be able to draft with the later picks as well like Chicago and LA.

[LaBamba]

IMO successful late round drafting is more about the organizations ability to develop players then some old, fat, pervert, scout's premonition. 

By developing I mean, drafting players that fit the teams "Brand". 

Drafting players surrounded by great Jr coaches. (London Knights for example). 

Pick a team brand. BPA isn't always the player that fits your blueprint. 

[Canucks Prophet]

7 hours ago, EdgarM said:

Well you "tank boys", what say you on that tidbit of information? Should that not make them a dynasty by now? 

You people posting these little pieces of information seem to be under the delusion that we want the Canucks to tank for several years in a row. The reality is that this is not true.

[flickyoursedin]

I don't even want the Canucks to tank! It's not like I want to start benching the Sedins or call up Bachman and let him start the remainder of the season. I want the team to try to win every game like they are now! All I want the Canucks to do is to trade expiring vets as its apparent this isn't our year. Trade the Vrbata and Hamhuis' on the team as they're not pieces to our Stanely Cup puzzle. With what you get from them maybe a late first maybe a 2nd round pick maybe one of those picks becomes a Corey Perry or a PK Subban. I'd just rather get something for our valuable players instead of missing the playoffs and watching these guys walk for no value in return. I don't see why everybody has their panties in a bunch over the idea of maybe finishing 2-4 spots lower in the standings but picking up maybe 2 extra 1rst round picks for players that won't be here next year anyway.

Would you rather finish the year picking 10th overall, watch Hamhuis and Vrbata walk in free agency and spend money on better UFA's? Or would you rather trade them and possibly pick 3 times in the top 30 and still spend our money on better UFA's?

[MoneypuckOverlord]

4 hours ago, The Lock said:

We should get Patrick Stefan while we're at it. I bet he's available.

 

if you guys really want to go that route, then it's fine with me. I'm not saying every top 3 pick is a guarantee, as we've seen many busts ourselves, Stefan, Yakupov, Eric Johnson to name a few.  I'm not really trying to really skew anything too, most top 3 picks really do pan out, and the odds of them panning out is much higher then any other pick we've been picking at..   Again I'm not saying they will tank, but right now, is a good year to finish with a top 3 pick.

I'm just going to list the Stanley cup winners in the past 10 years, and I will also list the finalists that have a top 3 pick or a high pick on their roster.

 

2006 Carolina Hurricanes Eric Staal (2) and Andrew Ladd (4)

Edmonton Oilers  had Chris Pronger (2nd overall 1993)

2007 Anahiem Ducks, Chris Pronger (2nd overall) Scott Neidermayer (3rd overall)

Ottawa Senators Jason Spezza and Dany Heatly (both 2nd overalls) Chris Phillips (1st overall) although he doesn't really count, lol.

2008 Detroit Red Wings, ( an exception unless you think over night we can start drafting like Detroit  did, yea..... that aint happening anytime soon)

Pittsburgh Penguins. well.... Crosby Malkin, Jordan Staal the list really goes on.

2009 Pittsburgh Penguins, Crosby (1) Malkin (2) Jordan Staal (2) Marc Andre Fleaury (1)

2010 Chicago Black Hawks, Kane (1)  Toews (3)

Flyers  Chris Pronger (2nd overall)

2011 Boston Bruins  Tyler Seguin (2)

Vancouver Canucks Daniel Sedin (2) Henrik Sedin (3) Roberto Luongo (4)

2012 L.A Kings Drew Doughty (2)

2013  Chicago Black Hawks, Kane (1)  Toews (3)

Boston Bruins   Tyler Seguin (2)

2014 L.A Kings Drew Doughty (2) Marion Gaborik (3)

New York Rangers Rick Nash (1)

2015 Chicago Black Hawks, Kane (1)  Toews (3)

Tampa Bay Lighting, Stamkos (1) Hedman (2) Drouin (3) although he didn't really play.

 

I'm not really here to challenge anyone, or anybody, like yourself I do want this team to win a Stanley cup, we will all die in peace, i'm serious, if we can witness them win the cup just once, before we die, but this is just me, we are not winning the cup this year, heck we might not even make the playoffs, we might as well make the most of it, this time, and the timing is right.  Sedins are about to retire, we are rebuilding,  we might as well make the most of it, and go for a high pick,as cmon, you can't obviously argue against this, having a top 3 pick is better then having a early teens pick or even a teens pick at this point.  that top 3 pick is more likely to make an impact to the Franchise then that so called player we will be drafting. 

 

I just want to see them win. We have a better chance at winning the cup down the road if we drafted in the top 3 this season then drafting in the teens this season.  Trust me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Quoted]

Tanking can work if everything else works out as well. Hardly a guarantee of success and likely doesn't work more often than it does work (big gamble)..

[TheNewGM]

edmonton is going to improve. wait and see , theyre stars are all maturing now finally and they will start winning .

 

people allways say ed sucked and tanking doesn work , but they were basing the failure of 19 and 20 year olds . This is the year you will see edmonton turn it around if they get some goaltending

[insomniac604]

Tanking in the NHL is sort of about timing.

You can't tank all year because coaches/gms/etc have their jobs on the line. But if halfway through the season you find yourself way out of it, why not send some guys back to minors to get experience?

I think teams appreciate effort above all else. So if you ice a crap team but they work hard, your job is safe and you'll still pick in the top 3.

Teams that do that though seem to be the ones who have been consistently bad for years. You won't see a down year team do that. But they might wish they did.