Shift-4 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 2 minutes ago, FireGillis said: Nah, it generally does. Contenders don't normally trade pending ufa because they need them the playoffs or to help them get there. Calgary was a special case cause they were kind of on the bubble and glencross wasn't a big piece for them. He's not even in the NHL today. Trading hamius/vrbata would definitely make us worse if they do the right thing and trade them for prospects/picks and not for players that would be on your nhl roster today. Tanking/Rebuilding is all about building for the future and writing off this season. I'm hoping the canucks are pretty out of it by the new year so benning doesn't keep this delusion of the playoffs up any longer than he has and starts selling our assets for the future. Contenders??????? Who said anything about contenders??? My example was Calgary last year and then you come up with CONTENDERS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireGillis Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 7 minutes ago, Shift-4 said: Contenders??????? Who said anything about contenders??? My example was Calgary last year and then you come up with CONTENDERS The idea is that non contenders trade their pending ufa at the deadline for picks/prospects while contenders don't. Your argument was that trading vrbata/hamhius doesn't mean giving up on the playoffs, when it certainly does as that's the norm in most cases. You have buyers and sellers at the deadline. Sellers are usually the non playoffs team who have given up on the playoffs for this year and look towards building towards the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbyg43 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 this thread maybe could be called moneyball ? as it has nicer connotations than Tanking. Generally speaking think tanks do come up with good ideas an suggestions to improve the performance an management of a operation an do give those invested with sense of ownership.The holidays being on us it is time for deep reflection .For me if there is one stone not turned to look at all possibilities to improve the situation that could be construed as tanking.The short term view could be said that it is perhaps but, over the longer time lines it could be considered a brilliant move to improve, ,this is why losers are not guaranteed the first overall pick today.The science of money ball is constantly in play to review possibilities an check one self to see if the assurance is on track if not parts do need replacement from time to time, an finding the right part in nhl sports is more difficult than one can imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdgarM Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 43 minutes ago, HKSR said: I know there are many of us in the 'tanking' crowd, but just some food for thought for the non-tanking crowd. Many Canucks fans would say the 2 times the team has come closest to winning the Stanley Cup was in 1994 and 2011. In 1994, arguably, the team was led by Linden, and of course McLean and Bure. I'll give the non-tanking crowd McLean, and Bure was a fluke of a draft pick (won't go into the details of his qualification as a draftee here). The focus here is on Linden. THE Captain and face of the Canucks. Now President. Drafted 2nd overall. Not saying we tanked the year before, but the fact is we finished low enough to garner a draft pick of that quality that led the Canucks to within a crossbar of going into OT for a Game 7 Stanley Cup Final battle. Linden made it a 3-2 game in Game 7. Those old enough to have watched him play knows that playoff hockey was his kinda hockey. Oh, and might be worthwhile mentioning that we drafted another player a year later in the 1990 Entry Draft at 2nd Overall as well -- Petr Nedved. The result from this pick was acquiring Brown, Hedican, and Lafayette -- key members of the 1994 run, and one of the best PP quarterbacks the franchise ever had in their lineup (Brown). Yes, it was Brown passing the puck tape-to-tape for Bure to end the series in Round 1 against the Flames. In 2011, again, so close yet so far. We got to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals... led by who else? Daniel and Henrik Sedin. I won't go into details here, but here's the fact -- drafted 2nd and 3rd overall. Likely future HOFers, and franchise leaders in nearly every offensive category. There has been no other time in the history of this franchise where we have gotten closer to winning the Stanley Cup than the 2 times mentioned above. Ironically, or coincidentally, or perhaps it was a direct result of the fact we were able to draft 3 of the greatest players this franchise has ever had -- the ONLY times we have ever drafted players in the Top 3 of an Entry Draft in the modern era. Food for thought. I replied on a different post with the same topic. In the last 20 years, 13 of the 63 picked in the top 3 have won cups. Around 20% success rate for these guys. Do not see that as a sure fire way of going about getting a cup. Putting all of your chips in one pile for a 20% chance of sucess? I wouldn't take that bet, especially if it meant watching a decade or so of below par hockey similar to Edmonton if you do not get it right. Nah I will stick to picking good players in ALL rounds of the draft, trading for players and getting players via UFA/RFA's thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 12 minutes ago, Shift-4 said: No it does not. I compare it to Calgary trading Glencross last year. Plus have you seen them play this year? Not sure how losing them would hurt all that much. Trading Glencross worked cuz Monahan and of course Gaudreau broke out last year. If McCann was scoring at the rate he was earlier in the season, I'd agree that moving Vrbata would be similar. Doesn't change the fact that moving Vrbata AND Hamhuis would make us much worse though. Unless we receive a D capable of playing Top-4 minutes, we would get worse. Otherwise, why would the other team trade their D away for Hamhuis? Generally, if a D is included, it will be a prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shift-4 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 1 minute ago, FireGillis said: The idea is that non contenders trade their pending ufa at the deadline for picks/prospects while contenders don't. Your argument was that trading vrbata/hamhius doesn't mean giving up on the playoffs, when it certainly does as that's the norm in most cases. You have buyers and sellers at the deadline. Sellers are usually the non playoffs team who have given up on the playoffs for this year and look towards building the future. And I provided an example where that wasn't the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 4 minutes ago, EdgarM said: I replied on a different post with the same topic. In the last 20 years, 13 of the 63 picked in the top 3 have won cups. Around 20% success rate for these guys. Do not see that as a sure fire way of going about getting a cup. Putting all of your chips in one pile for a 20% chance of sucess? I wouldn't take that bet, especially if it meant watching a decade or so of below par hockey similar to Edmonton if you do not get it right. Nah I will stick to picking good players in ALL rounds of the draft, trading for players and getting players via UFA/RFA's thanks. The game has changed a lot since the lockout in 2005. What do your numbers look like in the last 10 years? Also curious where you started your calculations. Counting the last 4 or 5 years would be non-sense as it'd likely take a rebuilding team 4 or 5 years to develop their prospects. Start in 2010 and go back 10 years. I'd be curious what that pans out to be. I haven't seen rookies make this big of an impact as 18 and 19 year olds in a long, long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireGillis Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 4 minutes ago, Shift-4 said: And I provided an example where that wasn't the case. And I already stated that calgary was an outlier and glencross wasn't even an important piece. He's not even in the nhl today and you're comparing calgary losing him to us losing vrbata/hamius. Glencross would be our chris higgins. I'm not even going to argue that losing chris higgins would make us worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdgarM Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 1 minute ago, HKSR said: The game has changed a lot since the lockout in 2005. What do your numbers look like in the last 10 years? 6 players of 33 have won the cup. Roughly the same 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 Just now, EdgarM said: 6 players of 33 have won the cup. Roughly the same 20%. Are you starting with 2015? or 2010? (see my edit above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 5 minutes ago, HKSR said: Are you starting with 2015? or 2010? (see my edit above) I get 10 out of 30. Is that what you got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdgarM Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 2 minutes ago, HKSR said: Are you starting with 2015? or 2010? (see my edit above) The first was from 95 on and the second from 05 on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Soldier Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 25 minutes ago, HKSR said: Fair enough. I'd consider you a pseudo-tanker then cuz we would seriously suck after losing those two Eh, if they're not coming back turning down a pair of seconds at the very least would be unwise. They have value, unlike last year's laughable 'Mattias for a first' crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 1 minute ago, EdgarM said: The first was from 95 on and the second from 05 on. I went from 2010 back to 2000, looks like 10 out of 30. More than half have played in the Finals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canucks Prophet Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 33 minutes ago, Shift-4 said: I have always said tanking is for losers. And now you are saying we should tank again because we lost in the finals. Makes sense. I'm not understanding your logic. So you're against tanking, but you do want to trade some of our veterans. Do you think we'll acquire franchise players out of thin air? Maybe we'll make same blockbuster trade for one, even though we don't really have high quality assets? Stamkos and Kopitar are the only free agents next year who can be considered franchise players, but it's highly likely they resign with their respective teams. If you can properly explain your anti-tanking approach for this team, I am curious. Because the OP made a very strong case for tanking at least one season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdgarM Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 2 minutes ago, HKSR said: I went from 2010 back to 2000, looks like 10 out of 30. More than half have played in the Finals though. Sure your not doubling up on players? Chicago and LA have won mostly since 2010 and close only counts in shaving my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sean Monahan Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 2 minutes ago, EdgarM said: close only counts in shaving my friend. I thought it was horseshoes and hand-grenades? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 34 minutes ago, HKSR said: To me, tanking = rebuilding rather than retooling. People in the 'non-tanking' group generally say to keep guys like Vrbata and Hamhuis, whereas the 'tanking' group would rather receive assets for players likely walking away as an UFA. I believe keeping Vrbata and Hamhuis past this year's trade deadline would be foolish. I don't believe in losing on purpose, but setting yourself up for a proper rebuild is better than mediocrity for years in hopes of finding a gem in the rough. You are setting up a straw man here, that is not at all what people are saying. Good asset management is different than trying to purposefully destroy your roster in order to lose as much as possible and gain a high draft pick. If we are out of the playoff picture near the trade deadline, trading away pending UFAs is not "tanking" teams do it all the time... there are buyers and sellers every deadline. You have already lost the season, and your eye is on the next year. The balance changes from trying to win every game, to development and getting the best value for assets. Even if we are in the playoff picture, it could still be prudent to trade away one of those guys because the return could be great. Heck, you might win more games with the fresh legs of Grenier/Gaunce rather than Higgins. The "tanking" crowd in our situation wants to take a team that is competing for the playoffs, trade away all the veterans and dismantle the roster in order to lose as much as possible. They think this because there is apparently some magical formula where getting a high draft pick guarantees you a Cup in the next couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdgarM Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 4 minutes ago, Wild Sean Monahan said: I thought it was horseshoes and hand-grenades? I don't play horseshoes and I definitely do not want to be close to a hand grenade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 15 minutes ago, HKSR said: I went from 2010 back to 2000, looks like 10 out of 30. More than half have played in the Finals though. Here's what I got. Check my work please lol. 11 out of 30. 2010 Hall Seguin - Cup Gudbranson 2009 Tavares Hedman Duchene 2008 Stamkos Doughty - Cup Bogosian 2007 Kane - Cup Vanriemsdyk Turris 2006 E Johnson Staal - Cup Toews - Cup 2005 Crosby - Cup Ryan J Johnson 2004 Ovechkin Malkin - Cup Barker 2003 Fleury - Cup Staal - Cup Horton - Cup 2002 Nash Lehtonen Bouwmeester 2001 Kovalchuk Spezza Svitov 2000 Dipietro Heatley Gaborik - Cup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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