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[Speculation] Canucks 2016-2017 line-up without major RFA or UFA signings


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This wasn't meant to be a proposal so much as a "let's see what kind of a slate we're working with next season." I wanted to take a look at what contracts we have on the books for the 2016-2017 season to see what cap space we could work with. Below is a rough line-up based on three huge (and hopefully wrong) assumptions:

Assumption #1: No roster players currently signed on for the 2016-2017 season are traded at 2016 deadline

Assumption #2: The only compensation we receive from any traded roster players at the 2016 deadline are draft picks

Assumption #3: No UFAs or RFAs re-signed after July 1st, 2017 with the exception of Baertschi



Forwards ($35.707 million)
D. Sedin ($7 million) - H. Sedin ($7 million) - ???
S. Baertschi ($2.5 million) - B. Horvat ($.894 million) - J. Virtanen ($.894 million)
C. Higgins ($2.5 million) - B. Sutter ($4.375 million) - J. Hansen ($2.5 million)
A. Burrows ($4.5 million) - J. McCann ($.894 million) - D. Dorsett ($2.65 million)

Defense ($13.946 million)
A. Edler ($5 million) - C. Tanev ($4.45 million)
B. Hutton (.$896 million) - ???
L. Sbisa ($3.6 million) - ???

Goalies ($7.55 million)
R. Miller ($6 million)
J. Markstrom ($1.55 million)

Retained ($.8million)
R. Luongo ($.8 million)

Estimated 2016-2017 Cap: $74 million
Total Cap Used: $58.003 million


Which means we have roughly $16 million available to sign a top six forward and to shore up our defense, though I think Pedan and Biega would for sure be resigned. In the 2017-2018 season, Burrows and Higgins become UFAs and, if we don't resign either, that would be an additional $8 million we could use to pursue other options.

Would this line-up be good enough for us to both rebuild on the fly and to remain relatively competitive in the 2016-2017 season, or is further movement necessary?
 

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Let's take this a month at a time. Right now we have 16 forwards, with 2 spares and 2 IR. Let's make the assumption that Hansen and Sutter return sometime in the next month. WD has a lot of forwards to work with, and young guys like Virtanen and McCann in which he wants to spot in every other game. 

Sedin Sedin Burrows
Baertschi Horvat Vrbata
Higgins Vey Virtanen
Prust Cracknell Dorsett

Ex: McCann, Etem

IR: Hansen, Sutter

I'm not even sure what the lines will look like next game, with McCann and Etem slotting in. Virtanen was solid and deserves another game, I don't really want to break up the 4th line, and I could see Higgins coming out. Is WD so bold as to put Etem - McCann - Virtanen together as the 3rd line? When Hansen and Sutter come back, who else is dispaced?

There's definitely a discussion worthy of having concerning our lineup, but it's far more interesting in the short term.

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Aqua has spent more than the cap allows via the use of front loaded contracts for years now. Revenue is down and rink has lots of empty seats. 

I don't' see this team going after a big ticket item right this summer. IMO there's a good chance Benning doesn't get approval to spend to the cap max limit next year. They may stay 4 or 5 mill below cap max.

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1 hour ago, WHL rocks said:

Aqua has spent more than the cap allows via the use of front loaded contracts for years now. Revenue is down and rink has lots of empty seats. 

I don't' see this team going after a big ticket item right this summer. IMO there's a good chance Benning doesn't get approval to spend to the cap max limit next year. They may stay 4 or 5 mill below cap max.

Have you heard of the saying "You need to spend money to make money"? I remember being able to buy Canucks tickets from Shoppers Drug Mart. No one wanted to go to games back then. There were plenty of empty seats for years. 

They have a chance to get back the faithful who sold out the place for years or go back to no one really caring too much to go to games anymore. 

I don't expect them to find another "Russian Rocket" but playing Weber on a regular basis is just not going to cut it. 

What they do with the extra cap space next year will dictate how much interest they will generate with a lot of fans. I suspect most who want to be entertained are spending their hard earned cash to see the Twins do their magic. 

If bold moves are not made soon, I forsee us being that "other" Canadian Western team that nobody knows or cares about.

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19 minutes ago, EdgarM said:

Have you heard of the saying "You need to spend money to make money"? I remember being able to buy Canucks tickets from Shoppers Drug Mart. No one wanted to go to games back then. There were plenty of empty seats for years. 

They have a chance to get back the faithful who sold out the place for years or go back to no one really caring too much to go to games anymore. 

I don't expect them to find another "Russian Rocket" but playing Weber on a regular basis is just not going to cut it. 

What they do with the extra cap space next year will dictate how much interest they will generate with a lot of fans. I suspect most who want to be entertained are spending their hard earned cash to see the Twins do their magic. 

If bold moves are not made soon, I forsee us being that "other" Canadian Western team that nobody knows or cares about.

MaCaws lost 10s of millions per year in Vancouver, Aquas have been spending more than cap max via front loaded contracts for years. So there is no problem with the Canucks spending money.

Unfortunately in sports it's not so easy, Even before the cap era TOR spent millions more than others but never won the cup. 

This team needs to be built from the foundation on up. It's a team going into rebuild. You need to get to the spot where a high end UFA signing can make a difference and put you over the top not where he can help you finish 10th worst instead of 7th worst.

You don't need to spend money just to spend money, there has to be rhyme and reason to it.

People go to see a winning team, this team won't be winning anything for the next few years. If they aren't filling the seats to see the Sedins who may be the best duo to ever play the game then I hardy think they'll be filling the seats to go see Lucic or Ladd. 

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9 hours ago, pushfrog7 said:

This wasn't meant to be a proposal so much as a "let's see what kind of a slate we're working with next season." I wanted to take a look at what contracts we have on the books for the 2016-2017 season to see what cap space we could work with. Below is a rough line-up based on three huge (and hopefully wrong) assumptions:

Assumption #1: No roster players currently signed on for the 2016-2017 season are traded at 2016 deadline

Assumption #2: The only compensation we receive from any traded roster players at the 2016 deadline are draft picks

Assumption #3: No UFAs or RFAs re-signed after July 1st, 2017 with the exception of Baertschi



Forwards ($35.707 million)
D. Sedin ($7 million) - H. Sedin ($7 million) - ???
S. Baertschi ($2.5 million) - B. Horvat ($.894 million) - J. Virtanen ($.894 million)
C. Higgins ($2.5 million) - B. Sutter ($4.375 million) - J. Hansen ($2.5 million)
A. Burrows ($4.5 million) - J. McCann ($.894 million) - D. Dorsett ($2.65 million)

Defense ($13.946 million)
A. Edler ($5 million) - C. Tanev ($4.45 million)
B. Hutton (.$896 million) - ???
L. Sbisa ($3.6 million) - ???

Goalies ($7.55 million)
R. Miller ($6 million)
J. Markstrom ($1.55 million)

Retained ($.8million)
R. Luongo ($.8 million)

Estimated 2016-2017 Cap: $74 million
Total Cap Used: $58.003 million


Which means we have roughly $16 million available to sign a top six forward and to shore up our defense, though I think Pedan and Biega would for sure be resigned. In the 2017-2018 season, Burrows and Higgins become UFAs and, if we don't resign either, that would be an additional $8 million we could use to pursue other options.

Would this line-up be good enough for us to both rebuild on the fly and to remain relatively competitive in the 2016-2017 season, or is further movement necessary?
 

Not only will Burrows and Higgins come off the books but so does Ryan Miller

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Let's assume the line combinations are fluid and may change, so that the important thing is who the players will be.

The lineups given are short a few players of a 23 man roster, as the OP no doubt realized.  There's lots of cap space to fill in a roster.

I will include a few players outside your assumptions and assume they sign or re-sign some of the players whose rights they currently hold.

Candidates for additional forward-Rodin, Gaunce, Grenier, Shinkaruk, Etem, Cracknell, Vey, Shinkaruk.  That makes a pool of 19 players from which to select, probably, 14 forwards.  I'd consider the forward pool next season would be likely adequate for a team to compete for a playoff spot.

Candidates for additional defense-Biega, Pedan, Tryamkin make a pool of 7 defencemen.  Other possibilities from current players are Hamhuis, Weber and Barktowski.  IMO this area is in need of some help and is too weak to ice a good squad.  If Pedan and Tryamkin were by chance both available and both ready next season, though, by late next season the defense core could be looking quite a bit better.

Goals for next season:  Here I think there is a fair bit of disagreement on CDC.  With some cap space, say the Canucks have room to fill in the roster and go after a couple of good free agents. 

Do they give lots of term at a fairly high salary to someone like Byfuglien or Lucic?  Both of those players would make a difference for next season.  Both would require giving term that would be very likely to go past the dates they begin to decline with age and both would command high salaries.  Is it worthwhile?

What kind of team would the Canucks be with a couple of high profile free agents?

Many on CDC want Byfuglien and Lucic and think it would make the Canucks an immediate Cup contender.  My view is that the team would still be short of that level, though it could be a pretty good team and I suppose once one is in the playoffs anything can happen.  I think they'd be relative longshots, though.

The downside of that is that it puts obstacles in the way of current prospects and the help is relatively short-term as both Lucic and Byfuglien have been around long enough with enough hard miles that they could easily decline in another couple of years.  Lucic isn't that old but I'm wary about how long it will be before he starts to decline.

I'd rather take another couple of seasons of relative pain and make a much lower profile trade or UFA signing or two to try to improve the defence, while generally building by promotion of prospects.

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Here's what I'd like to see with the players who should be around, based on playing style/ what I've seen:

Danny - Hank - Emerson
(Twins as perimeter passers, Etem as net-front, one-shot scorer with some size; Hansen's also had moments this season of being a scorer flying down the wing e.g. against OIlers, and Emerson has a similar shot and speed if not more upside)

Sven - Bo - Jake
(three straight-line guys, with complementary styles: play-maker - two-way guy - scorer/ PF; they've done well before)

McCann - Sutter - Hansen
(All three have good straight-line speed, and both Jared and Brandon have good shots; Hansen can feed them both as his vision complements these shoot-first guys well; Jared may be able to learn from playing with these two two-way guys and he'll receive sheltering for his face-off weakness)

Prust - Cracker - Dorsett
(Honestly think Cracker deserves to stay, as this has been one of the better 4th lines in the league)

I'm sure Burr has a spot in the bottom-6 (probably as a 3rd liner) but just making this lineup based on playing style.

Edler - Tanev (Automatic 1st pair)
Hutton - ________
Sbisa - Biega (probably has the makings of a solid depth pairing: Luca's become solid and BIega is good all-round)

Miller/ Markstrom

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On ‎1‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 0:26 PM, WHL rocks said:

Aqua has spent more than the cap allows via the use of front loaded contracts for years now. Revenue is down and rink has lots of empty seats. 

I don't' see this team going after a big ticket item right this summer. IMO there's a good chance Benning doesn't get approval to spend to the cap max limit next year. They may stay 4 or 5 mill below cap max.

Benning has stated on more than one occasion that he intends to be a player in the high end free agent market this summer.

 

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2 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Wishful thinking?

I get it, you all probably think he's going to be demanding more than we can afford.

 

In all seriousness.  There is a log jam of depth going to be hitting our team next year and we don't have enough roster spaces. I could see McCann and Virtanen, starting next year in the AHL.  Grenier, Vey, Etem, Kenins will need to clear waivers so I think they will all start on the big club. Unless there are more trades coming.  I do see Canucks making a major push for Lucic and at the same time I would like to see Rodin giving a chance to come over. I have a hard time seeing Burrows on our roster.

 

Sedin Sedin Hansen

Lucic Sutter Rodin

Baertschi Horvat Etem

Gaunce Vey Dorsett

Grenier/ Kenins

 

I also think Shinkaruk has earned an opportunity to play in the big show but it's hard to see it next year giving our current depth.  There is a lot of pieces that need spots, it will be interesting to see what moves JB makes over the next year

 

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Just now, ForsbergTheGreat said:

I get it, you all probably think he's going to be demanding more than we can afford.

 

In all seriousness.  There is a log jam of depth going to be hitting our team next year and we don't have enough roster spaces. I could see McCann and Virtanen, starting next year in the AHL.  Grenier, Vey, Etem, Kenins will need to clear waivers so I think they will all start on the big club. Unless there are more trades coming.  I do see Canucks making a major push for Lucic and at the same time I would like to see Rodin giving a chance to come over. I have a hard time seeing Burrows on our roster.

 

Sedin Sedin Hansen

Lucic Sutter Rodin

Baertschi Horvat Etem

Gaunce Vey Dorsett

Grenier/ Kenins

 

I also think Shinkaruk has earned an opportunity to play in the big show but it's hard to see it next year giving our current depth.  There is a lot of pieces that need spots, it will be interesting to see what moves JB makes over the next year

 

Nope, I just think that Weber won't be resigned this summer. At all.

I see Kenins as part of a trade package with one of the vets.

Both Virtanen and McCann will be with the Canucks next year, as will Etem.

I can't see Vey getting a shot at the 4C position over Vey.

What are your thoughts on the defense?

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10 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Nope, I just think that Weber won't be resigned this summer. At all.

I see Kenins as part of a trade package with one of the vets.

Both Virtanen and McCann will be with the Canucks next year, as will Etem.

I can't see Vey getting a shot at the 4C position over Vey.

What are your thoughts on the defense?

 

 

For D. I personally would like to see Edler moved for a young RHD (Barrie, Gudbranson, Hamonic type) and for us to go after Yandle as a 4 year stop gap. 

So for a full line up, if we don't send Virtanen and McCann done like you say we'd be looking at

Sedin Sedin Hansen

Lucic Sutter Virtanen

Baertschi Horvat Etem

Gaunce McCann Dorsett

Shinkaruk/Grenier

 

Yandle, Tanev

Hutton (trade)

Pedan Sbisa

Tryamkin.

Yandle and Tanev would be our oldest D as 30 & 26.  That would mean (depending on who we get back in the trade) we'd have around 22 million to spend in cap  Lucic and Yandle being the big two. 

 

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19 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

 

 

For D. I personally would like to see Edler moved for a young RHD (Barrie, Gudbranson, Hamonic type) and for us to go after Yandle as a 4 year stop gap. 

So for a full line up, if we don't send Virtanen and McCann done like you say we'd be looking at

Sedin Sedin Hansen

Lucic Sutter Virtanen

Baertschi Horvat Etem

Gaunce McCann Dorsett

Shinkaruk/Grenier

 

Yandle, Tanev

Hutton (trade)

Pedan Sbisa

Tryamkin.

Yandle and Tanev would be our oldest D as 30 & 26.  That would mean (depending on who we get back in the trade) we'd have around 22 million to spend in cap  Lucic and Yandle being the big two. 

 

Interesting. I agree wholeheartedly that Edler is best served as a trade piece versus holding on to him in hopes of him somehow miraculously becoming the true number one.

It would be nice to see a hose cleaning on the back end with Edler, Hamhuis, Bartkowski, and Weber traded for varying returns, one of which would be a true top pairing defenseman with size, speed, and skill. Whatever the cost, baby! Personally, I'd be fine with Benning approaching Tampa regarding Hedman. Pipe dream, I know. 

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But look at what could be with major UFA frenzy action:

Sedin-Sedin-Eriksson

Lucic-Sutter-Hansen

Baertschi-Horvat-Virtanen

Dorsett-McCann-Etem

Edler-Tanev

Hutton-Big Buff

Hammer-Sbisa

Pedan, Biega

Marky

Vet. backup

UFA Signings

Big Buff - 7.25 M

Lucic - 6.5 M

Eriksson - 4.75 M

Hammer - 2.5 M

Vet Back Up - 1 M

total: 22 M

Cap Shed

Miller - 6 M

Vrbata - 5 M

Burrows - 4.5 M

Hamhuis - 4.5 M

Prust - 2.5 M

Bart - 1.75 M

Weber - 1.5 M

total: 25.75 M

then the rest of cap space will be used for resigning rfas very slight pay raises, depth signings, wiggle room

could work this lineup would have lots of flexibility for line juggling.

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Up front all we need is one UFA.

On defence we need a trade or sign a top-4 UFA.

Without these guys:

Sedin - Sedin - Etem

Baertschi - Horvat - Virtanen

Shinkaruk - Sutter - Hansen

Dorsett - McCann - Burrows

Gaunce

 

Edler - Tanev

Hutton - Sbisa

Bartkowski - Biega

Pedan

Subban

 

 

With a top-6 winger UFA (Lucic/Boedkker/Ladd/Okposo for 6M) + top-4 defenceman through trade/UFA:

 

Sedin - Sedin - UFA

Baertschi - Horvat - Virtanen

Shinkaruk - Sutter - Hansen

Burrows - McCann - Etem

 

Edler - Tanev

Hutton - UFA

Sbisa - Bartkowski

 

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I think we should go after at least one defensmen in Free Agency. My target would be Demers. We are set with young, upcoming wingers with Baertschi, Shinkaurik, Gaunce, Virtanen and eventually Boeser. I would also resign Baertschi, Cracknell, Pedan, Biega and Etem. I have a feeling Hamhuis good be done after this year. We have been playing fine without him and we have some other young defence ready to eat up some minutes. Unless Vey really lights it up with Etem, we should probably lose him as well. Cracknell is more useful and more versatile. Trade Higgins in the offseason for a 5th round pick. 

 

Sign:

Demers: 4-years, 4.5 million per

 

Resign: 

Baertschi: 3-years, 2 million per

Cracknell: 2-years, 1.25 million per

Etem: 3-years, 1.5 million per

Pedan: 3-years, 1 million per

Biega: 2-years, 1.5 million per

 

Total Cap Hit: 11.5 million

Total Cap Space: About 5 million

 

 

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows

Baertschi - Horvat - Hansen

Etem - McCann - Virtanen

Gaunce* - Sutter - Dorsett

Shinkaurik*,  Cracknell (Shinkaurik and Gaunce rotate)

 

Edler - Tanev

Sbisa - Demers

Hutton - Biega

Pedan

 

Having cap space lots of cap space will be important after this year. Next year we need to resign Horvat, Hutton, Markstrom and Burrows. We could probably let Miller walk as Markstrom will have improved. That means we need to get contracts for Horvat, Hutton, Markstrom and probably Burrows and a backup. 

 

After that we have Henrik, Danial, Hansen, McCann, Virtanen, Edler and Sbisa needing new contracts. The Sedins, Edler and Hansen will resign for less. McCann, Virtanen and Sbisa will need to be given contracts.

 

Having cap space for the next 3 years will be crucial. I don't think we need any forwards unless they are cheap. Defends is our biggest need, but I don't think we should be handing out big money to anyone. We only have Sutter, Dorsett and Tanev signed past that. Some players will resigned and some new faces will be brought in.

 

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  • 1 month later...

I Think its time we start looking ahead to what it will realistically be next year. I hope, just like the rest of us we get a top pick that can play next year, but just being realistic that we will draft 7-11. If we draft in that range, hopefully we take Juolevi/Sergachyov, but I have a weird feeling Mcleod is Bennings guy. This isnt the lineup i want, but what I assume realistically it will be based on the management

 

Sedin-Sedin-Erikson

Baertschi-Suter-Hansen

Burrows-Horvat-Virtanen

Etem-Granlund-Dorsett

Gaunce,Vey

 

Edler-Tanev

Hutton-Hammer

Signing/trade-Sbisa

Biega/Pedan/Larsen

 

Mark

Miller

 

I Have a feeling they will bring Vey back, send McCann to AHL. IS he eligible?

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