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Is It Insanely Possible For The Nucks To Finish Dead Last?


TheGuardian_

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Okay Tank Nation, is it possible?

I have no problem with the team doing what they should have done last season, now. The only thing that kind of erked me was that it looks like bad management instead of a planned attack.

Toronto, while not saying those words, strongly hinted that they would have pain there for a couple of seasons and the fans and media went along and embraced that decision.

Vancouver fans are, for the most part, supporting the team and the young guys playing, the one's that are not so on board believed the "kool aid" was on the up and up. Hence the illusion of bad management.

The subject line....now I didn't even think it was possible a few weeks ago but by the end of next week this might be in the conversation.

Once again, dead last does not guarantee a top three pick, but it does give better odds.

For the Nucks the top four prospects should be;

1. Mathews
2. Laine
3. Pujarvvi
4. Dubouis

I think the recent shut outs should be the tell. While the defence has held some pretty good and motivated teams within striking distance, there has been a lack of strike, scoring. Nobody wins a game 0-0, there is the need of a goal.

At any rate, I knew the month of March would be a monster, I posted that before, I didn't think it would be as.....advantageous for a draft pick. In February I did my annual "guess", it wasn't as selective as in the past but I did have the Nucks 3 - 5th I believe.

The draft lottery is going to be held on April 30th,

There is an 80% chance the worst team doesn't get the #1 pick, but a 70% chance they get a top 3.

Some tables from canucksarmy;

The Worst Teams Win: 1st then 2nd

[Image: article_1012c8ec-8ff7-4f73-abbc-ca077484f842.png]

The Worst Team GetsPassed Over: 2nd then 3rd

[Image: article_2a4c8f3d-0eb3-4e1f-a463-d0e0e1a7e36f.png]

The "Best" Teams Win: 14th then 13th
[Image: article_aa420326-f588-4b42-a9be-c25aa891648b.png]
I'm using the term "best" gingerly here since these teams still missed the playoffs. No surprise that when the small odds are removed, the rest don't change by very much.

This is the most unlikely scenario off and has just a 0.02% chance of occurring, or 1-in-5000. The chances of 12th worst winning the third lottery on top of 14th and 13th winning? Just 0.0005% or 1-in-200,000. Probably not gonna happen. It would be hilarious if it did though.

Now the trick will be to get the numbers assigned for each position. The 2015 numbers are available but the 2016 numbers are being hidden from the public by the NHL. Is this to guarantee team's tanking are not getting a good pick or helping buddies of the commish?

Just had to throw some tin hat stuff in there whenever there is something the NHL makes a state secret until after the deal is done.

 

“There are 3 kinds of men. The ones that learn by readin’. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.”
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10 minutes ago, TheGuardian_ said:

Okay Tank Nation, is it possible?

 

Fabulous post.  Our chances of getting MUCH NEEDED elite skill in this draft are very good.  Now how many elite skill guys are in the 2017 draft, because we still will need at least one more elite guy?

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1 minute ago, RUPERTKBD said:

They've got some work to do if they want to catch the Leafs, but zero goals in the past two games says anything is possible.

I mean, if we carry this hot streak forward, we could score 0 goals in the next few games!

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6 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Fabulous post.  Our chances of getting MUCH NEEDED elite skill in this draft are very good.  Now how many elite skill guys are in the 2017 draft, because we still will need at least one more elite guy?

The 2017 draft isn't as promising for NA forwards, but it does look fairly good for dmen.

 

As far as can be projected the 2018 NA draft class may have a couple of impact forwards and there could be one or two in Europe.

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3 minutes ago, TheGuardian_ said:

The 2017 draft isn't as promising for NA forwards, but it does look fairly good for dmen.

 

As far as can be projected the 2018 NA draft class may have a couple of impact forwards and there could be one or two in Europe.

I appreciate that you are on top of these future drafts, because I think we will be drafting high for a few seasons.  :unsure:

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Daniel doesn't think all are in, Hank mentions the possibility of moving (vaguely) on for the good of the team in a dressing room interview a few seeks ago, could it be?

 

They are friends with Linden, this happened with Linden...

Reminds me of a Beatle song, Goodbye, hello, I don't know why you say goodbye, I say hello, not the right words but.. trade and then come back? Elliot F. was talking about it a little last night, but Hank's comment was around the time Hamhuis was being shopped.

 

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Doubt we finish last, Toronto is fielding an AHL team for most part, very skilled AHL team but an AHL team nonetheless. Winnipeg has just played like garbage for last couple of months, Ladd is gone, Little is done for season and their goalies bring a whole new term to the word "suckage".

 

I think we have a very good chance to finish in the bottom 5 though, maybe as high as 29th, picking anywhere in the top 3 would be awesome, even picking 4th or 5th would be sweet.

 

Our luck, we finish 4th, all the teams behind us win a lottery draft pick and we wind up picking 7th! :picard:

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