Young Guys: Age and Development

[JamesB]

Tonight's game against St. Louis was another low point for team performance (although on track for successful tanking). As was said in the post-game show on TSN 1040, it looked like men against boys out there. Yes the team was tired playing for the third time in four nights but, even so, very few Canuck players looked like they were able to compete. The Canucks were outhit 35 to 14 and, in the third period when the trailing team often outshoots the leading team, the Canucks were outshot 16 -- 2.

 

The optimists are saying that this is normal and happens to young teams. As young guys mature they will develop and the team will improve. I have looked closely at age and development before and thought I would run through the current young guys and see which guys might become good NHL players based on standard development patterns. I realize that there is individual variation and some guys are late bloomers, but overall averages give the best prediction.

 

The key data is that forwards typically improve a lot each year between their draft year (when most are 17) for the next 4 years or so: ages 18-21. After that you still normally get improvement, but at a slower rate, up to about age 24. The peak range for forwards is between the ages of about 24 and 31. As a rule of thumb, for Ds you can add a couple of years to the early development stage, so they peak later.

 

The basic point for forwards is that you can't normally expect a lot of improvement after age 23 or 24. It happens, but that is not the way the smart money bets. So, based on that, here are the ages.

 

Forwards:

 

Virtanen - age 19. Currently a legitimate 4th liner on an average NHL team. He still has a lot of development room left so he could still become a top 6 forward.

McCann - age 19. I don't see him as a legitimate NHL player right now. But he also still has a lot of development room left and could still become a top 6 foward.

Horvat -- age 20. Currently a legitimate 3rd line defensive center.He was asked to do too much this year, but has enough development room left to become a good 2C.

Gaunce -- just turned 22. In 12 NHL games this year he has 1 pt and is -8, and that is with protected minutes. He is not a legitimate NHL player yet and with his trajectory in junior and the AHL, he is borderline to ever be an NHL regular. He could become a decent bottom 6 forward or 13th man, but it is probably even money that he never becomes an NHL regular.

Granlund -- turns 23 in April. He is pretty close to the age where what you see is what you get (normally). He is a marginal NHL player right now and maybe he improves a bit, but it is likely that he is never more than a marginal bottom 6 player or 13th man.

Etem -- age 23. A couple of teams have already given up on him and, as his current age, what we are looking at now is pretty close to what we can expect long run. And, in my view, that is not good enough to play on a good NHL team.

Baertschi -- age 23. In the second half of this year he has played like a marginal 2nd line winger. Should make the small additional step to being a legitimate 2nd line winger next year. That is consistent with his Junior and AHL trajectory as well, so picking him up was a good move.

Vey -- age 24. Currently good enough to maybe be 13th man on an average NHL team and it is hard to see him doing much more than that.

Grenier -- age 24. Not a legitimate NHL player yet and, at his age and current performance level, probably never will be.

 

Defence:

 

Tryamkin is 21, Pedan is 22, and Hutton is 22. These guys should all continue to improve quite a lot over the next couple of years. Hutton had a good year but has kind of hit a wall, which is not surprising given everything he has been asked to do. And we don't have a big sample on Tryamkin. But Tryamkin and Pedan look like they can probably be decent 3rd pairing NHL Ds next year, and Hutton looks like he will be a decent top 4 D very soon, although putting him in that role this year was too early.

 

That is the emerging "young core" on the team, along with Marky in goal. And of course Demko and Boeser are very good prospects playing in the NCAA. Based on normal development patterns I don't see any likely future legitimate first line forwards or top pairing Ds currently at the pro level in the Canuck pipeline. It could happen, it is just not what current information suggests. Boeser is doing great of course, but it is a big step from the NCAA to the NHL so it is too early to say much. But personally I think he is likeliest guy in the current prospect pool to be a first liner in the NHL.

 

We don't have really high end prospects like some of the other currently bad teams. Edmonton and Buffalo have future franchise players like McDavid and Eichel respectively, but even Calgary has Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett as young forwards and Dougie Hamilton on D. Vancouver has no young player on a comparable trajectory (at the pro level) to any of those 4 players on an age-adjusted basis.

 

And you just don't get Cup contenders without franchise type players. To have a chance for a Cup in the medium term future we need to daft a very good player this year and we need one or two guys in the prospect pool to become big positive outliers relative to normal development patterns. Picking up decent but expensive UFAs (like Miller and Vrbata) has, in my view, just slowed down the turnaround. Expensive UFAs are just a bandaid -- you can buy a slightly better team, but you can't rebuild a solid core with UFAs. I hope Benning does not get carried in the UFA market this summer. 

 

[desiboynux4lifee*******]

I said it before, if Benning continues to shy away from drafting  skilled players(Nylander, pujavari, who I know if we get 3rd pick he will pick a defence), then we will be a team in the future that struggles to score. You need guys with skill, elite skill the Sedins are a example. You can't have all your players being a bunch of 2 way guys, you need that odd game breaker type of player. 

 

[Dank dat hank]

A bit critical of our young core...

[Gstank29]

6 minutes ago, JamesB said:

Tonight's game against St. Louis was another low point for team performance (although on track for successful tanking). As was said in the post-game show on TSN 1040, it looked like men against boys out there. Yes the team was tired playing for the third time in four nights but, even so, very few Canuck players looked like they were able to compete. The Canucks were outhit 35 to 14 and, in the third period when the trailing team often outshoots the leading team, the Canucks were outshot 16 -- 2.

 

The optimists are saying that this is normal and happens to young teams. As young guys mature they will develop and the team will improve. I have looked closely at age and development before and thought I would run through the current young guys and see which guys might become good NHL players based on standard development patterns. I realize that there is individual variation and some guys are late bloomers, but overall averages give the best prediction.

 

The key data is that forwards typically improve a lot each year between their draft year (when most are 17) for the next 4 years or so: ages 18-21. After that you still normally get improvement, but at a slower rate, up to about age 24. The peak range for forwards is between the ages of about 24 and 31. As a rule of thumb, for Ds you can add a couple of years to the early development stage, so they peak later.

 

The basic point for forwards is that you can't normally expect a lot of improvement after age 23 or 24. It happens, but that is not the way the smart money bets. So, based on that, here are the ages.

 

Forwards:

 

Virtanen - age 19. Currently a legitimate 4th liner on an average NHL team. He still has a lot of development room left so he could still become a top 6 forward.

McCann - age 19. I don't see him as a legitimate NHL player right now. But he also still has a lot of development room left and could still become a top 6 foward.

Horvat -- age 20. Currently a legitimate 3rd line defensive center.He was asked to do too much this year, but has enough development room left to become a good 2C.

Gaunce -- just turned 22. In 12 NHL games this year he has 1 pt and is -8, and that is with protected minutes. He is not a legitimate NHL player yet and with his trajectory in junior and the AHL, he is borderline to ever be an NHL regular. He could become a decent bottom 6 forward or 13th man, but it is probably even money that he never becomes an NHL regular.

Granlund -- turns 23 in April. He is pretty close to the age where what you see is what you get (normally). He is a marginal NHL player right now and maybe he improves a bit, but it is likely that he is never more than a marginal bottom 6 player or 13th man.

Etem -- age 23. A couple of teams have already given up on him and, as his current age, what we are looking at now is pretty close to what we can expect long run. And, in my view, that is not good enough to play on a good NHL team.

Baertschi -- age 23. In the second half of this year he has played like a marginal 2nd line winger. Should make the small additional step to being a legitimate 2nd line winger next year. That is consistent with his Junior and AHL trajectory as well, so picking him up was a good move.

Vey -- age 24. Currently good enough to maybe be 13th man on an average NHL team and it is hard to see him doing much more than that.

Grenier -- age 24. Not a legitimate NHL player yet and, at his age and current performance level, probably never will be.

 

Defence:

 

Tryamkin is 21, Pedan is 22, and Hutton is 22. These guys should all continue to improve quite a lot over the next couple of years. Hutton had a good year but has kind of hit a wall, which is not surprising given everything he has been asked to do. And we don't have a big sample on Tryamkin. But Tryamkin and Pedan look like they can probably be decent 3rd pairing NHL Ds next year, and Hutton looks like he will be a decent top 4 D very soon, although putting him in that role this year was too early.

 

That is the emerging "young core" on the team, along with Marky in goal. And of course Demko and Boeser are very good prospects playing in the NCAA. Based on normal development patterns I don't see any likely future legitimate first line forwards or top pairing Ds currently at the pro level in the Canuck pipeline. It could happen, it is just not what current information suggests. Boeser is doing great of course, but it is a big step from the NCAA to the NHL so it is too early to say much. But personally I think he is likeliest guy in the current prospect pool to be a first liner in the NHL.

 

We don't have really high end prospects like some of the other currently bad teams. Edmonton and Buffalo have future franchise players like McDavid and Eichel respectively, but even Calgary has Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett as young forwards and Dougie Hamilton on D. Vancouver has no young player on a comparable trajectory (at the pro level) to any of those 4 players on an age-adjusted basis.

 

And you just don't get Cup contenders without franchise type players. To have a chance for a Cup in the medium term future we need to daft a very good player this year and we need one or two guys in the prospect pool to become big positive outliers relative to normal development patterns. Picking up decent but expensive UFAs (like Miller and Vrbata) has, in my view, just slowed down the turnaround. Expensive UFAs are just a bandaid -- you can buy a slightly better team, but you can't rebuild a solid core with UFAs. I hope Benning does not get carried in the UFA market this summer. 

 

You kind of answered your own question  there.

 

Also Virtanen, Boeser, Horvat and Hutton aren't high end? I would saying anyone with top 6 or top 4 potential and a very high chance of hitting that potential is considered a highend prospect.

 

Also adding someone like Okposo would help this team in the present and in the future while I agree you cant build a winner through free agency you can still acquire some very attractive pieces that will help your team going forward. Look at what Washington did signing Opik and Niskanen

[luckylager]

So many words

 

None of them new

 

Sorry to complain

 

But, booooooooooooo

 

 

 

 

 

[Mathew Barzal]

I agree with all of your assessments. The next few years will be where we draft the icing on the cake. We have our depth players pretty much ready to roll.

[LaBamba]

Great post. I totally agree. The numbers don't lie. This is going to be extremely painful for 95% of the people who read this but it's true. We have no 1st line prospects. Boeser, possibly but that's about it. 

 

The difference between high end talent and what we have is finish. That is blatantly obvious in our games.

 

Corsi numbers can't tell you what players Finish their chances either. 

 

We need to suck for a few years so we can draft players that can fool goalies. 

 

 

[Boudrias]

1 hour ago, JamesB said:

Tonight's game against St. Louis was another low point for team performance (although on track for successful tanking). As was said in the post-game show on TSN 1040, it looked like men against boys out there. Yes the team was tired playing for the third time in four nights but, even so, very few Canuck players looked like they were able to compete. The Canucks were outhit 35 to 14 and, in the third period when the trailing team often outshoots the leading team, the Canucks were outshot 16 -- 2.

 

The optimists are saying that this is normal and happens to young teams. As young guys mature they will develop and the team will improve. I have looked closely at age and development before and thought I would run through the current young guys and see which guys might become good NHL players based on standard development patterns. I realize that there is individual variation and some guys are late bloomers, but overall averages give the best prediction.

 

The key data is that forwards typically improve a lot each year between their draft year (when most are 17) for the next 4 years or so: ages 18-21. After that you still normally get improvement, but at a slower rate, up to about age 24. The peak range for forwards is between the ages of about 24 and 31. As a rule of thumb, for Ds you can add a couple of years to the early development stage, so they peak later.

 

The basic point for forwards is that you can't normally expect a lot of improvement after age 23 or 24. It happens, but that is not the way the smart money bets. So, based on that, here are the ages.

 

Forwards:

 

Virtanen - age 19. Currently a legitimate 4th liner on an average NHL team. He still has a lot of development room left so he could still become a top 6 forward.

McCann - age 19. I don't see him as a legitimate NHL player right now. But he also still has a lot of development room left and could still become a top 6 foward.

Horvat -- age 20. Currently a legitimate 3rd line defensive center.He was asked to do too much this year, but has enough development room left to become a good 2C.

Gaunce -- just turned 22. In 12 NHL games this year he has 1 pt and is -8, and that is with protected minutes. He is not a legitimate NHL player yet and with his trajectory in junior and the AHL, he is borderline to ever be an NHL regular. He could become a decent bottom 6 forward or 13th man, but it is probably even money that he never becomes an NHL regular.

Granlund -- turns 23 in April. He is pretty close to the age where what you see is what you get (normally). He is a marginal NHL player right now and maybe he improves a bit, but it is likely that he is never more than a marginal bottom 6 player or 13th man.

Etem -- age 23. A couple of teams have already given up on him and, as his current age, what we are looking at now is pretty close to what we can expect long run. And, in my view, that is not good enough to play on a good NHL team.

Baertschi -- age 23. In the second half of this year he has played like a marginal 2nd line winger. Should make the small additional step to being a legitimate 2nd line winger next year. That is consistent with his Junior and AHL trajectory as well, so picking him up was a good move.

Vey -- age 24. Currently good enough to maybe be 13th man on an average NHL team and it is hard to see him doing much more than that.

Grenier -- age 24. Not a legitimate NHL player yet and, at his age and current performance level, probably never will be.

 

Defence:

 

Tryamkin is 21, Pedan is 22, and Hutton is 22. These guys should all continue to improve quite a lot over the next couple of years. Hutton had a good year but has kind of hit a wall, which is not surprising given everything he has been asked to do. And we don't have a big sample on Tryamkin. But Tryamkin and Pedan look like they can probably be decent 3rd pairing NHL Ds next year, and Hutton looks like he will be a decent top 4 D very soon, although putting him in that role this year was too early.

 

That is the emerging "young core" on the team, along with Marky in goal. And of course Demko and Boeser are very good prospects playing in the NCAA. Based on normal development patterns I don't see any likely future legitimate first line forwards or top pairing Ds currently at the pro level in the Canuck pipeline. It could happen, it is just not what current information suggests. Boeser is doing great of course, but it is a big step from the NCAA to the NHL so it is too early to say much. But personally I think he is likeliest guy in the current prospect pool to be a first liner in the NHL.

 

We don't have really high end prospects like some of the other currently bad teams. Edmonton and Buffalo have future franchise players like McDavid and Eichel respectively, but even Calgary has Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett as young forwards and Dougie Hamilton on D. Vancouver has no young player on a comparable trajectory (at the pro level) to any of those 4 players on an age-adjusted basis.

 

And you just don't get Cup contenders without franchise type players. To have a chance for a Cup in the medium term future we need to daft a very good player this year and we need one or two guys in the prospect pool to become big positive outliers relative to normal development patterns. Picking up decent but expensive UFAs (like Miller and Vrbata) has, in my view, just slowed down the turnaround. Expensive UFAs are just a bandaid -- you can buy a slightly better team, but you can't rebuild a solid core with UFAs. I hope Benning does not get carried in the UFA market this summer. 

 

Nice job! My only disagreement is Gaunce. I would like to see at least 40 games out of him before passing judgement.

[dura_mater]

55 minutes ago, Dank dat hank said:

A bit critical of our young core...

Or realistic?

 

[Crabcakes]

48 minutes ago, JamesB said:

 

 

A fair and useful analysis.  But how empty are the cupboards really?

 

You're suggesting that it is likely that the following players become useful top 6 forwards or top 6 defenders:  Virtanen, McCann, Horvat, Baertschi, Boeser, Tryamkin, Pedan, Hutton

 

Benning considers core players in the system to come from the following list:  Markstrom, Tanev, Hutton, Virtanen, Horvat, McCann, Boeser, Sutter

 

There is obviously considerable overlap.  Let's see what sort of a line up these players would make:

 

XXXXX  McCann Boeser

Baertschi Horvat Virtanen

00000  Sutter  00000

00000  00000  00000

 

XXXXX Tanev

Hutton Tryamkin

Pedan 00000

 

Markstrom

Demko (my addition)

 

Positions marked 00000 are relatively easy to obtain and would be made up of players such as Gaunce, Granlund, Grenier etc

 

Positions marked XXXXX are of concern and need to be filled.  So pretty much a 1LW and a top pairing D.

 

The other concern to me is that McCann is a 1C.  This takes a leap of faith.

 

Should we be freaking out about this?  No, they're only 3 drafts into the rebuild.  Presumably there could be 1 or 2 key players added from the draft each year and perhaps a surprise like Hutton may come along from time to time.

 

 

[JamesB]

26 minutes ago, Crabcakes said:

A fair and useful analysis.  But how empty are the cupboards really?

 

You're suggesting that it is likely that the following players become useful top 6 forwards or top 6 defenders:  Virtanen, McCann, Horvat, Baertschi, Boeser, Tryamkin, Pedan, Hutton

 

Benning considers core players in the system to come from the following list:  Markstrom, Tanev, Hutton, Virtanen, Horvat, McCann, Boeser, Sutter

 

There is obviously considerable overlap.  Let's see what sort of a line up these players would make:

 

XXXXX  McCann Boeser

Baertschi Horvat Virtanen

00000  Sutter  00000

00000  00000  00000

 

XXXXX Tanev

Hutton Tryamkin

Pedan 00000

 

Markstrom

Demko (my addition)

 

Positions marked 00000 are relatively easy to obtain and would be made up of players such as Gaunce, Granlund, Grenier etc

 

Positions marked XXXXX are of concern and need to be filled.  So pretty much a 1LW and a top pairing D.

 

The other concern to me is that McCann is a 1C.  This takes a leap of faith.

 

Should we be freaking out about this?  No, they're only 3 drafts into the rebuild.  Presumably there could be 1 or 2 key players added from the draft each year and perhaps a surprise like Hutton may come along from time to time.

 

 

I think this is pretty much right. As a lot of people has said before (including me and probably you too), we need a #1 franchise D and an additional franchise forward -- your two XXXXX categories. And I agree that McCann is probably a longshot to be a legitimate 1C, although I think he will be a good NHL players. So we really need one #1 franchise D and two potential first line forwards. Those guys are hard to get.

 

Let's hope we get one out of three in this year's draft. But we need two more some other way -- maybe in next year's draft,  maybe in a fortunate trade, maybe one of the guys currently in the system is a big outlier. Maybe even a UFA although I think that is unlikely. UFAs they are very expensive for what they contribute and are often not far from starting age-related decline. And genuine frachnise players are very rarely available as UFAs anyway. 

[JamesB]

1 hour ago, LaBamba said:

Great post. I totally agree. The numbers don't lie. This is going to be extremely painful for 95% of the people who read this but it's true. We have no 1st line prospects. Boeser, possibly but that's about it. 

 

The difference between high end talent and what we have is finish. That is blatantly obvious in our games.

 

Corsi numbers can't tell you what players Finish their chances either. 

 

We need to suck for a few years so we can draft players that can fool goalies. 

 

 

I agree that "finish" -- the ability to actually put the puck in the net -- is both rare and crucially important. Coaches talk a lot about "going to the tough areas", "building offense from good defense", "getting pucks to the net", "getting dirty goals", etc. That is all true and is the "blue collar" way to score goals. But a Cup contender also needs some natural goal scorers who score "clean goals" as well.

 

Good teams also generate a lot more offensive support from the defense than the Canucks are getting this year. Of the Canuck D going forward after Edler finishes his contract (Tanev,  Hutton, Pedan, Sbisa, Tryamkin), only Hutton looks like he can provide much offense.

[JamesB]

1 hour ago, Boudrias said:

Nice job! My only disagreement is Gaunce. I would like to see at least 40 games out of him before passing judgement.

Fair enough. We need a bigger sample on Gaunce. He might a solid NHL player as a LW who can also play center (or vice versa), but his ceiling has to be bottom six, so he does not fill a key spot.

[JamesB]

1 hour ago, desiboynux4lifee******* said:

I said it before, if Benning continues to shy away from drafting  skilled players(Nylander, pujavari, who I know if we get 3rd pick he will pick a defence), then we will be a team in the future that struggles to score. You need guys with skill, elite skill the Sedins are a example. You can't have all your players being a bunch of 2 way guys, you need that odd game breaker type of player. 

 

Good point. And, like you, I am worried about this year's draft. From what Benning has said I am pretty sure he will pick one of the top three forwards if we get a lottery pick. But beyond that I am worried that he might be tempted to go for a D instead of a high end offensive talent even if the forward is the BPA. 

 

But most experts are having a hard time figuring out how the top three D's (Chychrun, Juolevi, Sergachev) compare with each other and with the top forwards (Tkachuk, Nylander, Dubois) after the top 3.

 

So let's hope we get a lottery pick.

[Robongo]

Would love to see the stats of players like McCann, that were clearly rushed to the show ,to skip their final junior year and subsequently demoted to the AHL and become successful NHLers. I believe in McCann so I think he will overcome this, but what an utter blunder this was. The Soo are a good organization and there aren't any cases of players being ruined by an extra year of junior. We know that Jared is a proud individual and that he believed he should have been taken much higher in the draft, what will demoting  him to the AHL him to do his confidence next year? Nothing positive that is for damn sure.

 

The Sutter resigning is looking far worse than it did at the time, and most thought that that would not be possible. Atrocious signing at the time, and it will prove to be a completely unnecessary one moving forward and not even in hindsight. If only our meatheads at the helm had an ounce of foresight..

 

This management doesn't even deserve Matthews...

[cuporbust]

2 hours ago, desiboynux4lifee******* said:

I said it before, if Benning continues to shy away from drafting  skilled players(Nylander, pujavari, who I know if we get 3rd pick he will pick a defence), then we will be a team in the future that struggles to score. You need guys with skill, elite skill the Sedins are a example. You can't have all your players being a bunch of 2 way guys, you need that odd game breaker type of player. 

 

One player can make a huge difference. Boeser could be vrbata in his prime. We already have one guy that could be a big time goal scorer. Guys like McCann and Virtanen could turn into that as well. Time my fiend

[clam linguine]

Great job.....I like that you know 24 year old forwards are generally at their peak.

 

[Sweathog]

I agree that we need more elite talent in our prospect pool, but I'm not so sure the future of this team is as bleak as it appears. Our rookies were thrown into such a difficult situation this year (playing with so many other rookies) that I don't know if this is an ideal year to judge their development. I'd give it one more year to see where our future core stands.

[Robongo]

26 minutes ago, cuporbust said:

One player can make a huge difference. Boeser could be vrbata in his prime. We already have one guy that could be a big time goal scorer. Guys like McCann and Virtanen could turn into that as well. Time my fiend

Even Ovechkin couldn't push the Caps into the promise land with an elite C like Backstrom. Optimism is great except when it is at the expense of reality. We have some decent prospects, but we are lagging far behind even the bottom feeders in our division.

[cuporbust]

11 minutes ago, Robongo said:

Even Ovechkin couldn't push the Caps into the promise land with an elite C like Backstrom. Optimism is great except when it is at the expense of reality. We have some decent prospects, but we are lagging far behind even the bottom feeders in our division.

Yes , but u have a healthy sutter, and a guy like boeser when he's ready, it could make all the difference. Still need solid D , but we saw from the beginning how much better we were when healthy. 

 

Even last year , vrbatts playing well with 30 plus  , how did we do? One guy on can make a difference.