Auditions So Far

[JamesB]

There has been a lot of talk about young guys auditioning for spots on the team next year. My objective in this thread is to offer my view of what I think we have learned in the last two or three weeks.

 

There is still a lot of uncertainty -- 4 more games this season, whatever happens at the draft and in UFA season, possible trades, how guys develop over the summer and next year's training camp. Even the Canuck triumvirate (TL, JB, and Willie)  do not yet know how things will shake out.

 

But it is still fun to speculate (AKA guess). After all, it is not as if we are thinking about how the Canucks will do in the playoffs.  I will try to avoid much-repeated history and focus on what I think we have learned recently. Here goes.

 

1. First Line: No one is likely to displace Hansen as RW on the first line with the Sedins. Several guys have had auditions but the Sedins look much better (and seem much happier) with Hansen than with anyone else. And that combination has been more productive than any other combination. And Willie said again last night how he likes Hansen with the Sedins. He likes Hansen's speed on that line and Hansen's good defensive ability lightens the defensive load on Henrik. (Personally I think the Sedins did not like playing with Vrby or Jake or, last year, with Kassian for this reason -- too much defensive responsibility for Henrik.) There has of course been talk about picking up a UFA like Stamkos of Lucic, which could change things. I think the chances of either of those guys being signed as UFAs are very small. So I think the first line stands pat. They should still be a decent first line next season, maybe about the league average for first lines. (And that is not bad. Don't forget that the average team or middle team in the NHL makes the playoffs.)

 

2. Second Line: Last night Willie said again that he likes Horvat in a more defensive, shutdown role -- i.e. NOT as 2C. This means that Sutter is likely to be 2C to start next season. Baertschi is likely to be 2LW. In the middle of last year Baertsch was languishing with Calgary's AHL team and there was doubt about whether he would ever play in the NHL again. A year ago he was playing well in the Utica. To start this season he was to able to show he could at least be a fringe NHL'er. But in the second half he has shown himself to be a legitimate 2LW -- based on the numbers and on the eye test -- maybe only barely but he is young enough that he should still improve to some extent next year. And before his injury Willie repeatedly mentioned him as playing well. He might be a good fit with Sutter, The knock on Sutter is that he is not a good enough playmaker to be 2C. But Baertschi is a good playmaker, freeing up Sutter to be more of a shooter. The problem is 2RW. On the numbers and, in my view, by the eye-test, none of the guys auditioning for jobs has been playing at a legitimate 2RW level. I think this is the likeliest spot for a UFA. 

 

3. Third LIne: Horvat will obviously (I think) be 3C. And it looks like Etem will play with him. WD has said that he likes Etem and Horvat together and they have played well together. And Etem indicated that he thinks they have good chemistry. And JB surprised a lot of people a few days ago by indicating almost definitively that Etem would be with the team next year. The other third line winger spot is up for grabs. Contenders include Virtanen, Vey, Gaunce, Burrows, and maybe even Granlund or McCann or Grenier (who is heating up in Utica). But Willie wants that line to play shutdown and I think that means Virtanen is out. This slot is highly uncertain and I don't think we have learned enough in the last few weeks to make a meaningful prediction.

 

4. Fourth Line: I think we have learned that Granlund will likely be 4C to start next season, and Dorsett will of course be on one of the wings. Right now, my best guess for other wing is Virtanen. Virtanen has shown that he can be a legitimate energy player at the NHL level. Frankly, we should expect quite a bit more than that from a #6 overall pick and maybe Virtanen will develop into a legitimate 2RW or 3RW by the end of next year.

 

Under this scenario McCann probably starts the season in Utica. Either Vey, Burrows, or Gaunce is probably a third line winger, one guy is 13th man, and the other is either gone or in Utica. This also does not leave a spot for Grenier or Zalewski to start the season, but I expect Z. to be an early call-up.

 

5. Defence: What we have learned in the past two weeks is that Tryamkin will be on the team next year. I think Hammer has played very well in the past few weeks as well. I want JB to re-sign him but I think the odds are against it. Pedan is waiver eligible next year (I think) so he is in. The means the depth chart is Edler, Tanev, Hutton, Sbisa, Tryamkin, Pedan, Biega. That is still not good enough and JB said they will carry 8 Ds next year (hence only 13 forwards). So either Hammer comes back or Benning signs a UFA who is not as good as Hammer for more money than Hammer would accept. With another good top 4 D (either Hammer or a UFA), I think next year's D will be a lot better than this year as Edler and Tanev should be healthier than they were this year, and Hutton, Tryamkin and Pedan should continue to improve.

 

6. Goal: Miller and Marky have virtually identical numbers and both are solid NHL goalies (which means that Marky is great value for his cap hit and Miller isn't.) What we have learned is that they both play better when they alternate games. When Miller played the lion's share of games he was overworked and Marky was underworked. They are both better with a moderate workload. I think that is how the season starts and, at some point, Marky takes over as #1.

 

So that is what I think we have learned. Unless we get a lottery pick I don't see the draft affecting things for next year. One concern I have is that Benning might overpay for UFAs, hurting the team in the long run in order to get a short run benefit.

[cuporbust]

Vrbata was making a boat load. If they do go for a UFA , They will get his money. Don't see how that will hurt us in the long run. We will have plenty of cap this summer 

[swizzey]

Great post OP. I agree with all of this. By next season we will have a couple UFA's to slide into some much needed roles increasing our depth. I expect Utica to be back in the playoffs contending for a championship and Canucks to have yet another mystery year...

[Mathew Barzal]

Has there any definitive word on what they plan to do with Virtanen?

 

I'm not sold that playing him with plugs and limited minutes for another year is in his best interests, I also don't think that he's good enough for a top six role.

 

Travis Green would do wonders for his inconsistencies IMO. Just look at how well Shinkaruk (rip) flourished after some time with him.

[DownUndaCanuck]

I'd be happy to do something similar to this:

 

1) Sign a top-6 scoring winger to play with the Sedins. They're getting old and slower and need some physical help. Sign one of Lucic/Ladd/Okposo/Boedkker/Eriksson to a 2-3 year, 6M deal

 

2) Sign a top-4 defenceman. Goligoski, Yandle etc. are all out there but probably won't want to come here unless we throw big bucks at them. 7M, mid-term range taking them into their mid-30s.

 

3) With the 4th-6th overall pick, don't be stupid and take a B-grade forward. The big 3 forwards will be gone. Take Chychrun, he'll be the Cam Fowler of the year and end up being a solid top-4 defenceman if not top-2 on the left side.

 

4) Try and trade some dead-weights, if we can't then just waive or bury them in the AHL

 

 

TO START THE SEASON:

 

Sedin - Sedin - top4 UFA

The Sedins won't be as good as they have been before but we can hope for a 60 point season and ideally 20-30 goals from the UFA

 

Baertschi - Horvat - Hansen

Horvat is primed for a big breakout season as is Baertschi, they both made huge strides and can easily all 3 hit 20 goal next year.

 

Granlund - Sutter - Virtanen

Big grinding shutdown line that can hit and score goals but most importantly play well defensively. Great checking line.

 

Etem - Vey - Burrows

If we can't move Burrows/Dorsett/Higgins, I wouldn't mind leaving one of those vets on the 4th line. Gaunce and McCann are knocking on the door if any of these guys suck.

 

 

 

On the whole, I think our forwards will get better with time. Most of them are young and improving every game, and a lot will happen between training camp and the 1st game of the season that decides who's up to speed. McCann may take leaps and bounds or trail off, as may Virtanen. The way I see it we've got 3 tiers of kids from best to worst: Horvat + Baertschi > Etem + Granlund + Vey > Virtanen + McCann. It'll be interesting to see come training camp if anyone jumps ahead development-wise.

 

 

Edler - Tanev

Edler is by far our MVP, we go on a 9 game losing streak without him and the wheels come off. He is untouchable in my books and the most underated Canuck in a long time on CDC. Whail on him all you want but we're not going to get as much value trading him as we will keeping him. Absolute rock on our defence and now you see how bad this team is without him. Keep him with Tanev and let them be our rocks while the young defencemen learn from them.

 

Hutton - UFA

Hutton is learning a lot this season but needs a solid top-4 defenceman partner who is sturdy and can calm down his game while teaching him how to be a professional. Essentially, we'll need to replace Dan Hamhuis' quality 20 minutes a night with this UFA

 

Tryamkin - Sbisa

Pretty physical shutdown bottom pairing, may be able to switch up Hutton with one of these guys if we want more balance (ie. puckmover + shutdown guy) but purely based on skill and minutes I'd like to keep Tryamkin down at around 15-18 minutes and Sbisa at around 17-19.

 

Chychrun

Biega

UFA

 

Bartkowski and Weber have to go but we'll need to sign some sort of depth 1M guy to be our injury fill-in and Utica defenceman

 

 

Miller

Markstrom

Split the goalies 40-40 next season, Markstrom is showing he can handle the load nicely.

 

[mll]

Benning said he sees Rodin as a 3rd liner but that would be surprising in a shutdown role so maybe he plays with Sutter and it's Dorsett that goes with Horvat-Etem.

 

Also WillieD made the comment that he is way better off if Baertschi is LW4.  He also said he likes Virtanen with Granlund.  So maybe his plan is a 4th line of Baertschi-Granlund-Virtanen.

[Nucksfollower1983]

2 minutes ago, mll said:

Benning said he sees Rodin as a 3rd liner but that would be surprising in a shutdown role so maybe he plays with Sutter and it's Dorsett that goes with Horvat-Etem.

 

Also WillieD made the comment that he is way better off if Baertschi is LW4.  He also said he likes Virtanen with Granlund.  So maybe his plan is a 4th line of Baertschi-Granlund-Virtanen.

if Baertschi is on the 4th line next year then I will make sure willie's corpse is swinging from a tree branch

[mll]

8 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

I'd be happy to do something similar to this:

 

1) Sign a top-6 scoring winger to play with the Sedins. They're getting old and slower and need some physical help. Sign one of Lucic/Ladd/Okposo/Boedkker/Eriksson to a 2-3 year, 6M deal

 

2) Sign a top-4 defenceman. Goligoski, Yandle etc. are all out there but probably won't want to come here unless we throw big bucks at them. 7M, mid-term range taking them into their mid-30s.

 

3) With the 4th-6th overall pick, don't be stupid and take a B-grade forward. The big 3 forwards will be gone. Take Chychrun, he'll be the Cam Fowler of the year and end up being a solid top-4 defenceman if not top-2 on the left side.

 

4) Try and trade some dead-weights, if we can't then just waive or bury them in the AHL

 

 

TO START THE SEASON:

 

Sedin - Sedin - top4 UFA

The Sedins won't be as good as they have been before but we can hope for a 60 point season and ideally 20-30 goals from the UFA

 

Baertschi - Horvat - Hansen

Horvat is primed for a big breakout season as is Baertschi, they both made huge strides and can easily all 3 hit 20 goal next year.

 

Granlund - Sutter - Virtanen

Big grinding shutdown line that can hit and score goals but most importantly play well defensively. Great checking line.

 

Etem - Vey - Burrows

If we can't move Burrows/Dorsett/Higgins, I wouldn't mind leaving one of those vets on the 4th line. Gaunce and McCann are knocking on the door if any of these guys suck.

 

[...]

This is WillieDs description of the RW with the Sedins (via Botchford in the Provies of 12 March):

This was Coach Willie today on the skills he wants in a linemate who plays with the twins:

“I think we all know Hank and Danny handle the puck a lot

“Whoever plays with them has to be good on the forecheck, has to go to the net and has to be willing to come back hard.”

He did not say, “right-hand shot” or “goal-scorer’s touch” or “has to have a great wrist shot and a good one timer.”

Sounds to me like the description of Hansen.

 

He also said that he does not like Baertschi with Horvat because he takes him away from his game. He prefers Horvat with defensive wingers.

 

 

[stawns]

13 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

I'd be happy to do something similar to this:

 

1) Sign a top-6 scoring winger to play with the Sedins. They're getting old and slower and need some physical help. Sign one of Lucic/Ladd/Okposo/Boedkker/Eriksson to a 2-3 year, 6M deal

 

2) Sign a top-4 defenceman. Goligoski, Yandle etc. are all out there but probably won't want to come here unless we throw big bucks at them. 7M, mid-term range taking them into their mid-30s.

 

3) With the 4th-6th overall pick, don't be stupid and take a B-grade forward. The big 3 forwards will be gone. Take Chychrun, he'll be the Cam Fowler of the year and end up being a solid top-4 defenceman if not top-2 on the left side.

 

4) Try and trade some dead-weights, if we can't then just waive or bury them in the AHL

 

 

TO START THE SEASON:

 

Sedin - Sedin - top4 UFA

The Sedins won't be as good as they have been before but we can hope for a 60 point season and ideally 20-30 goals from the UFA

 

Baertschi - Horvat - Hansen

Horvat is primed for a big breakout season as is Baertschi, they both made huge strides and can easily all 3 hit 20 goal next year.

 

Granlund - Sutter - Virtanen

Big grinding shutdown line that can hit and score goals but most importantly play well defensively. Great checking line.

 

Etem - Vey - Burrows

If we can't move Burrows/Dorsett/Higgins, I wouldn't mind leaving one of those vets on the 4th line. Gaunce and McCann are knocking on the door if any of these guys suck.

 

 

 

On the whole, I think our forwards will get better with time. Most of them are young and improving every game, and a lot will happen between training camp and the 1st game of the season that decides who's up to speed. McCann may take leaps and bounds or trail off, as may Virtanen. The way I see it we've got 3 tiers of kids from best to worst: Horvat + Baertschi > Etem + Granlund + Vey > Virtanen + McCann. It'll be interesting to see come training camp if anyone jumps ahead development-wise.

 

 

Edler - Tanev

Edler is by far our MVP, we go on a 9 game losing streak without him and the wheels come off. He is untouchable in my books and the most underated Canuck in a long time on CDC. Whail on him all you want but we're not going to get as much value trading him as we will keeping him. Absolute rock on our defence and now you see how bad this team is without him. Keep him with Tanev and let them be our rocks while the young defencemen learn from them.

 

Hutton - UFA

Hutton is learning a lot this season but needs a solid top-4 defenceman partner who is sturdy and can calm down his game while teaching him how to be a professional. Essentially, we'll need to replace Dan Hamhuis' quality 20 minutes a night with this UFA

 

Tryamkin - Sbisa

Pretty physical shutdown bottom pairing, may be able to switch up Hutton with one of these guys if we want more balance (ie. puckmover + shutdown guy) but purely based on skill and minutes I'd like to keep Tryamkin down at around 15-18 minutes and Sbisa at around 17-19.

 

Chychrun

Biega

UFA

 

Bartkowski and Weber have to go but we'll need to sign some sort of depth 1M guy to be our injury fill-in and Utica defenceman

 

 

Miller

Markstrom

Split the goalies 40-40 next season, Markstrom is showing he can handle the load nicely.

 

Holster that chycrun love.......he's not even the clear cut prime defensive prospect......is say the Finn is right there with him, at least.  Certainly Tkachuk and possibly even Nylander are BPA ahead of Chycrun.

 

If they do pick a dman, any of them, they will likely be 3 years away from any time with the big club.

[JamesB]

38 minutes ago, mll said:

Benning said he sees Rodin as a 3rd liner but that would be surprising in a shutdown role so maybe he plays with Sutter and it's Dorsett that goes with Horvat-Etem.

 

Also WillieD made the comment that he is way better off if Baertschi is LW4.  He also said he likes Virtanen with Granlund.  So maybe his plan is a 4th line of Baertschi-Granlund-Virtanen.

Thanks for the reminders. I admit that I should not have neglected Rodin. He is in the mix for a 3rd line winger role. I just don't see him winning that competition. I am not sure what his waiver status is. It would make sense for him to spend some time in Utica if possible (i.e. if he is waiver exempt).

 

I remember the comment about Baertschi as 4LW. I think the idea was along the lines of saying that if we have enough depth so that Baertschi gets pushed down to 4LW then we must be in pretty good shape. I just don't see who moves ahead of Baertschi at LW.

[Me_]

1 hour ago, cuporbust said:

Vrbata was making a boat load. If they do go for a UFA , They will get his money. Don't see how that will hurt us in the long run. We will have plenty of cap this summer 

Lucic

[Bruce Boudreau]

46 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

I'd be happy to do something similar to this:

 

1) Sign a top-6 scoring winger to play with the Sedins. They're getting old and slower and need some physical help. Sign one of Lucic/Ladd/Okposo/Boedkker/Eriksson to a 2-3 year, 6M deal

 

2) Sign a top-4 defenceman. Goligoski, Yandle etc. are all out there but probably won't want to come here unless we throw big bucks at them. 7M, mid-term range taking them into their mid-30s.

 

3) With the 4th-6th overall pick, don't be stupid and take a B-grade forward. The big 3 forwards will be gone. Take Chychrun, he'll be the Cam Fowler of the year and end up being a solid top-4 defenceman if not top-2 on the left side.

 

4) Try and trade some dead-weights, if we can't then just waive or bury them in the AHL

 

 

TO START THE SEASON:

 

Sedin - Sedin - top4 UFA

The Sedins won't be as good as they have been before but we can hope for a 60 point season and ideally 20-30 goals from the UFA

 

Baertschi - Horvat - Hansen

Horvat is primed for a big breakout season as is Baertschi, they both made huge strides and can easily all 3 hit 20 goal next year.

 

Granlund - Sutter - Virtanen

Big grinding shutdown line that can hit and score goals but most importantly play well defensively. Great checking line.

 

Etem - Vey - Burrows

If we can't move Burrows/Dorsett/Higgins, I wouldn't mind leaving one of those vets on the 4th line. Gaunce and McCann are knocking on the door if any of these guys suck.

 

 

 

On the whole, I think our forwards will get better with time. Most of them are young and improving every game, and a lot will happen between training camp and the 1st game of the season that decides who's up to speed. McCann may take leaps and bounds or trail off, as may Virtanen. The way I see it we've got 3 tiers of kids from best to worst: Horvat + Baertschi > Etem + Granlund + Vey > Virtanen + McCann. It'll be interesting to see come training camp if anyone jumps ahead development-wise.

 

 

Edler - Tanev

Edler is by far our MVP, we go on a 9 game losing streak without him and the wheels come off. He is untouchable in my books and the most underated Canuck in a long time on CDC. Whail on him all you want but we're not going to get as much value trading him as we will keeping him. Absolute rock on our defence and now you see how bad this team is without him. Keep him with Tanev and let them be our rocks while the young defencemen learn from them.

 

Hutton - UFA

Hutton is learning a lot this season but needs a solid top-4 defenceman partner who is sturdy and can calm down his game while teaching him how to be a professional. Essentially, we'll need to replace Dan Hamhuis' quality 20 minutes a night with this UFA

 

Tryamkin - Sbisa

Pretty physical shutdown bottom pairing, may be able to switch up Hutton with one of these guys if we want more balance (ie. puckmover + shutdown guy) but purely based on skill and minutes I'd like to keep Tryamkin down at around 15-18 minutes and Sbisa at around 17-19.

 

Chychrun

Biega

UFA

 

Bartkowski and Weber have to go but we'll need to sign some sort of depth 1M guy to be our injury fill-in and Utica defenceman

 

 

Miller

Markstrom

Split the goalies 40-40 next season, Markstrom is showing he can handle the load nicely.

 

Let's say Juolevi and Chychrun are picked by Calgary and Edmonton and they are off the board. Now who is the lick between Dubois,Takachuk, and Nykander the "B" grade forwards you mentioned. Hmm?

[Lui's Knob]

There's a lot of mid top 9 bottom 6 on this team and they'll have to sort out who stays and who is lost for free on waivers.

 

Granlund has to stay. Gaunce likely dealt for young d man. Vey not tendered and etem stays.

[JamesB]

1 hour ago, cuporbust said:

Vrbata was making a boat load. If they do go for a UFA , They will get his money. Don't see how that will hurt us in the long run. We will have plenty of cap this summer 

No problem with paying a UFA Vrby's 5M next season. The problem is term. To get a quality player it is often necessary to offer term. If the Canucks end up signing a 5 year deal for a guy around 30 or so for 5 million per year, they maybe get 2 good years then the cap hit to performance ratio gets bad.

 

Also, the Canucks will need money starting in a couple of years for their RFAs. Baertschi, Etem, Pedan, Vey and Granlund have to be re-signed this year. Next year we have Horvat, Hutton and Tryamkin. Maybe those guys all sign 2-year bridge deals that are not too expensive. After that they will get expensive as they will have arbitration rights.

 

And Marky is a UFA after next year.

 

I have no problem with Benning "overpaying" for UFAs for next year and maybe the year after. After that the opportunity cost will be high -- not enough cap room for the emerging young core.

[cuporbust]

17 minutes ago, Me_ said:

Lucic

He will resign with LA. 

[Cramarossa]

59 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

Granlund - Sutter - Virtanen

Big grinding shutdown line that can hit and score goals but most importantly play well defensively. Great checking line.

Sorry but this made me almost spit out my drink. A great checking line? I have long since drunk the Granny and Sutter kool-aid (Granny is bae), but I don't think I've seen either of them finish a check all season. I have, however, seen Granny get pushed off the puck and have his lunch money stolen. I'd rather see Sutter at 2C, Bo at 3C for a little more size, and Granny at 4C flanked by two dudes tougher than him. Virt at 3RW is a good look, and I'd love to see him with a LW who also likes to throw the body (if we can scrounge one up). Thankfully we've got a handful of (for the most part) defensively responsible centers, why not spread 'em out?

[Cramarossa]

1 hour ago, mll said:

Also WillieD made the comment that he is way better off if Baertschi is LW4.  He also said he likes Virtanen with Granlund.  So maybe his plan is a 4th line of Baertschi-Granlund-Virtanen.

 

[The Great 8]

This teams defence is going to be much better next year.. I only see on e hole though. And that's the second pairing on the right side. We should look for a mobile defencemen. I think Hamhuis won't be resigned.

Edler-Tanev

Tryamkin-?

Sbisa-Hutton

 

Pedan

Biega

 

 

 

 

 

[oldnews]

Good post.

 

In terms of the makeup of the lines - I don't think it's quite as definitive as the OP sees it.

 

What I think the triumvirate is doing is building greater flexibility.

 

They are able to add literally anywhere in their forward group imo - at LW, C or RW - giving them the most opportunity.

 

From my perpsective, the best case scenario - best place to add would be at 1RW - in the form of Okposo - for a range of reasons I won't repeat (worth making space for - otherwise can retain a good chunk of cap, still have a strong, deep lineup and cap flexibility/opportunity) - but even without Okposo, they have the options of Hansen and Sutter - very good options imo - a 1RW.  And where RW is concerned, that is also possibly their (skater) position with the greatest quality, with Virtanen and Boeser on the way.    [Okposo], Hansen, Sutter, Virtanen, Boeser, Etem (versatile), Burrows (versatile), Dorsett, Vey - they have a lot of options to fill out at RW.

 

At center they have Sutter and Horvat as 2C options, ideally at 2 and 3C, but obviously again, Hank, Sutter, Horvat, Granlund, McCann, Vey, Gaunce - no shortage of options and plenty of potential for competition to fill out the 3/4 spots.   Same story at LW - Dank, Baertschi, and a wealth of flexibility with Burrows, McCann, Etem, Gaunce, Granlund all capable and comfortable there.

 

Perhaps best of all - with that depth and flexibility also comes the wealth of having the option of lines with a pair of natural centers, enhancing their future strength in the circle, and of players who have focused their two-way development (imo you can simply never have too much diversity of strength in the broader sense of puck possession).

 

Regarding the defense - I agree that they should do their damnest to bring Hamhuis back - and if they do, will have a solid, deep blueline - with ever improving succession (possibly/probably even moreso after this draft).

[mll]

2 minutes ago, The Great 8 said:

This teams defence is going to be much better next year.. I only see on e hole though. And that's the second pairing on the right side. We should look for a mobile defencemen. I think Hamhuis won't be resigned.

Edler-Tanev

Tryamkin-?

Sbisa-Hutton

 

Pedan

Biega

 

 

 

 

 

They want to bring in Larsen and maybe they'll want to add someone through free agency or the draft.