nickels Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Does anyone know the chances in the following 3 scenarios ? What are the odds of the 3rd worst record picking in the top 3 ? What are the odds of the 4th worst record picking in the top 3 ? What are the odds of the 5th worst record picking in the top 3 ? These are the 3 places that we can finish with 1 game to go....there are clearly 3 prospects that rank above the rest. ADDED ...thank u...here's the answer. Surprisingly, not that big a difference ...using the chart.. the 3rd place team has a 34,2 % chance the 4th place team has a 29 % chance * the 5th place team has a 26.3% chance **Edit 04/08 ...with Wpg win in SJ, we now can only finish in bottom 4. "So you're sayin ...There's a chance". Defeating the Oilers Sat nite would lessen our odds of being in top 3 by 5.2 % (depending on what Columbus does last 2 gms) Maybe the current system doesn't suck as bad as I thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Balboa Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 http://nhllotterysimulator.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crabcakes Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Edit: Credit to TheRussianRocket for digging up this gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeanSeanBean Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 10 minutes ago, nickels said: Does anyone know the chances in the following 3 scenarios ? What are the odds of the 3rd worst record picking in the top 3 ? 70 % ?? more/less ? What are the odds of the 4th worst record picking in the top 3 ? 50 % ?? What are the odds of the 5th worst record picking in the top 3 ? 30% ?? These are the 3 places that we can finish with 1 game to go....there are clearly 3 prospects that rank above the rest. Please don't make this a thread about the other prospects available after the consensus top 3 Between 20 and 30%. And how about that Chychrun? Kid looks good, real good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grape Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickels Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 7 minutes ago, Crabcakes said: Thanks...using this chart, the 3rd place team has a 34,2 % chance the 4th place team has a 29 % chance the 5th place team has a 26.3% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 14 minutes ago, nickels said: Does anyone know the chances in the following 3 scenarios ? What are the odds of the 3rd worst record picking in the top 3 ? 70 % ?? more/less ? What are the odds of the 4th worst record picking in the top 3 ? 50 % ?? What are the odds of the 5th worst record picking in the top 3 ? 30% ?? These are the 3 places that we can finish with 1 game to go....there are clearly 3 prospects that rank above the rest. Please don't make this a thread about the other prospects available after the consensus top 3 Does JB trade down, even if he gets one of the top three picks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crabcakes Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 1 minute ago, Alflives said: Does JB trade down, even if he gets one of the top three picks? Did you hear his interview today? He said he would listen to offers but not shopping a high pick. He said there are the top 3, then after that there are 10-12 really good picks. Then there was something about top 5. Whether that is speculating where the Canucks might pick or Benning thinks the top 5 are better than the rest, I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philthy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 18 minutes ago, shayster007 said: Between 20 and 30%. And how about that Chychrun? Kid looks good, real good. Laine, JP or Mathews looks even better. If we don't draft in the top 3 then Chychurn or Juolevi are the obvious picks for us, I wouldn't be bothered by Tkachuk either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4ZZY Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 41 minutes ago, The 5th Line said: I just ran the simulator 20 times and we won a top 3 pick just 3 times and it was the 3rd overall pick all three times. We are doomed this franchise has had that type of luck since the beginning. I'd be surprised if we even landed a top three pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hearditall Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 6 hours ago, Alflives said: Does JB trade down, even if he gets one of the top three picks? NEVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumb Nuck Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 8 hours ago, Rocky Balboa said: http://nhllotterysimulator.com Every time I run it Edmonton gets first pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumb Nuck Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 8 hours ago, nickels said: Does anyone know the chances in the following 3 scenarios ? What are the odds of the 3rd worst record picking in the top 3 ? What are the odds of the 4th worst record picking in the top 3 ? What are the odds of the 5th worst record picking in the top 3 ? These are the 3 places that we can finish with 1 game to go....there are clearly 3 prospects that rank above the rest. ADDED ...thank u...here's the answer. Surprisingly, not that big a difference ...using the chart.. the 3rd place team has a 34,2 % chance the 4th place team has a 29 % chance the 5th place team has a 26.3% chance "So you're sayin ...There's a chance". Defeating the Oilers Sat nite would lessen our odds of being in top 3 by 3 or 8 % (depending on what Columbus does last 2 gms) Maybe the current system doesn't suck as bad as I thought... Correct me if I'm wrong but we can only finish 3rd last or 4th last. The best (or worst) we can do is tie Calgary and they have higher ROW. Depending on Columbus the game against the Oilers could be 5% game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfstonker Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 8 hours ago, Rocky Balboa said: http://nhllotterysimulator.com I ran it 10 times and the Canucks came 4th for picking in the first 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smithers joe Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 54 minutes ago, Dumb Nuck said: Correct me if I'm wrong but we can only finish 3rd last or 4th last. The best (or worst) we can do is tie Calgary and they have higher ROW. Depending on Columbus the game against the Oilers could be 5% game. correct...columbus plays buffalo and we play edmonton...if we lose and columbus picks up one point, they move ahead of us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 2 hours ago, hearditall said: NEVER. How will fans react if he does? This is JB, who feels he can draft ELITE talent lower in the draft that is just as good as guys taken higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AriGold Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Sup to all the H8erzzz Seriously though, it took me a long time to get that, lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mackcanuck Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 38 minutes ago, smithers joe said: correct...columbus plays buffalo and we play edmonton...if we lose and columbus picks up one point, they move ahead of us.. CLB has 2 games remaining (BUF and CHI), we have 1 CLB must get 2 points and we must lose or get an OT loss to EDM for us to get the #3 lotto pick. If CLB gets a shootout win then we would need a regulation loss against EDM to get #3 CLB must get 2 points tonight or tomorrow for us to have a chance If we beat EDM then CLB would have to beat both BUF and CHI to pass us We hold the tiebreaker on Goals for and against in the event of a tie. It's ironic that Torts can give us a #3 Lotto pick along with the 2nd round compensation pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tre Mac Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Is there a way to post screen shots?. I did the sim once and the nucks ended up picking 7th lol. Totally going to happen with the luck this franchise has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19Nazzy91 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Well, I mean, we are due for some good luck, right? Right? Right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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