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[Report] Shark now but will he be re-entering the draft and where would he Rank?


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7 minutes ago, AntiAquaman said:

Hmm interesting read but IF he re-enters would he be ranked in the top 5 as suggested..so should we be paying attention.  Those CDC'ers with Junior Hockey wisdom: I call upon your powers of deduction!

 

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/news/the-potential-first-round-nhl-draft-pick-no-one-is-talking-about/ar-BBsScEe?ocid=spartanntp

 

 

 

Was Dane Fox a pick or a free agent, when we got him.  Some guys just improve, or do well because of age.  This guy might not be nothing but another Fox?

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For anyone who doesn't want to click the link...

 

Draft eligibility is an interesting topic. Current rules dictate that any North American player who turns 18 before September 15 of the draft year, and does not turn 20 by December 31st of the same year is eligible. Any player who goes undrafted by age 20 becomes an unrestricted free agent.

 

In addition, any drafted player who is not signed within the two years following their draft may re-enter, assuming they still meet eligibility requirements by being under 20 years old. Typically, players who go unsigned after they get drafted show little development and perhaps even decline in production. But on rare occasions, a player who goes back into the draft for a second time has increased his value.

 

Some noteworthy players who have re-entered the draft are Mike Zigomanis (64th overall in 1999, 46th overall in 2001), Jarret Stoll (46th overall in 2000, 36th overall in 2002), and Matthew Lombardi (215th overall in 2000, 90th overall in 2002). Each of them significantly increased their stock by the time they went through the process for a second time.

 

Which brings us to the case of Dylan Sadowy of the Barrie Colts. The Sharks drafted Sadowy in the third round (81st overall) of the 2014 draft after he scored 27 goals and 36 points in 68 games with OHL Saginaw. In the two years since, Sadowy has scored 42 and 45 goals in the OHL, but he still hasn’t signed a contract with the Sharks.

 

The deadline for him to sign by before he can re-enter the draft is June 1 and it does seem like his value has increased. If he does go back into the draft, where could he get picked this time around?

 

Last week, I wrote a piece breaking down OHL shooters by their shots from various areas in the offensive zone (Low, Medium and High Danger shots). Sadowy ranked third on the list of producers likely to translate their OHL goal production to the NHL and he had the most High Danger shots in the OHL by a wide margin. His 61 HD attempts in the low slot were nine higher than the second-ranked skater Zach Senyshyn, who was a first-rounder last year.

 

The only skaters ahead of Sadowy overall were Christian Dvorak and Alex DeBrincat.

 

Sadowy was moved to Barrie mid-way through the season. So he scored 20 of his 45 goals this season with a Saginaw team that ranked 15th in OHL scoring and 25 while playing second-line minutes on a better Barrie squad.

 

It should also be noted that 56 of Sadowy’s 87 goals scored over the past two seasons came at even strength, which ranks fourth in the OHL over time time behind only DeBrincat, Andrew Mangiapane and Dylan Strome.

 

It is hard to overstate how unusual it is for a goal-scoring prospect of Sadowy’s calibre to return to the draft. Here is a list of all OHL skaters who had two 40-plus goal seasons since 2000-01, along with their NHL games played and production at that level.

 

SKATER    DRAFT YEAR (RANK)    HT/WT    NHL GP    NHL G    NHL PTS
Brett MacLean    2007 (32nd)    6’2/201    18    2    5
Bryan Little    2006 (12th)    6’/191    613    163    385
Christian Thomas    2010 (40th)    5’9/178    27    1    3
Cody Hodgson    2008 (10th)    6’/192    328    64    142
Corey Locke    2003 (113th)    5’9/185    9    0    1
Corey Perry    2003 (28th)    6’3/210    804    330    664
Derek Roy    2001 (32nd)    5’9/184    738    189    524
Jason Jaspers    1999 (71st)    5’11/207    9    0    1
John Tavares    2009 (1st)    6’1/211    510    207    471
Kerby Rychel    2013 (19th)    6’1/213    37    2    12
Mike Zigomanis    1999 (64th), 2001 (46th)    6’/200    197    21    40
Patrick O’Sullivan    2003 (56th)    5’11/190    334    58    161
Rob Schremp    2004 (25th)    5’10/184    114    20    54
Steve Ott    2000 (25th)    6’/189    795    106    281
Steven Stamkos    2008 (1st)    6’1/194    569    312    562
Taylor Hall    2010 (1st)    6’1/201    381    132    328
Tyler Toffoli    2010 (47th)    6’1/200    230    68    141
Josh Shalla    2011 (94th)    6’2/196    0    0    0
Brett Thompson    NA    5’8/154    0    0    0
Justin Donati    NA    5’10/176    0    0    0
Andrew Mangiapane    2015 (166th)    5’10/176    NA    NA    NA
Christian Dvorak    2014 (58th)    6’/178    NA    NA    NA
AVERAGE    42nd overall    6’/192    285.65    83.75    188.75
Alex DeBrincat    2016 (?)    5’7/161    NA    NA    NA
Dylan Sadowy    2014 (81st)    6’1/200    NA    NA    NA

 

Of the 20 skaters on this list who were available for selection at or before the 2014 draft, 12 have played more than 100 NHL games and 10 have played more than 200. Their average production rate is 0.29 goals and 0.66 points per game in the NHL, which would translate to a 24-goal, 54-point player over an 82-game season.

 

This means the average production of this group translates to legitimate first-line forward, with a 60 per cent probability of playing more than 100 NHL games and a 50 per cent probability of playing more than 200 games.

 

If we think in terms of draft pick valuation and the expected value for forwards picked in various draft slots, comparable players to Sadowy would have an expected production rate of 0.36 points per game. That’s the expected value range of a top-10 pick in any given NHL draft year.

 

THE LESSON

 

If Sadowy does re-enter the 2016 NHL Draft and become available to all 30 teams again, it seems logical to suggest he has potential to go in the first round.

 

He has flown under the radar through much of his OHL career despite having these eye-popping offensive totals. Don’t be surprised if he attracts far more attention in the draft if he goes through it again.

 

The Sharks have until June 1 to sign him. That’s news worth monitoring.

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His bottom line numbers, despite the author of that report trying to put his 'analytic' spin on them, are very average for a 20 year old over aged player.  He will NOT go in the first round is my prediction. 

 

 

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That list of guys who scored back to back 40 goal seasons looks like it puts him in some really good company!

That is until you realized that the vast majority of the "good" players on that list had their 2nd 40 goal season by the time they were drafted or their draft +1 season, or had a season where they put up well over 50.

Take Stamkos, Hall, Little, Rychel, Toffoli and Tavares off that list and it doesn't look so impressive.

 

He seems like a solid player, but I wouldn't take the risk on him until the late 2nd earliest.

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1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Was Dane Fox a pick or a free agent, when we got him.  Some guys just improve, or do well because of age.  This guy might not be nothing but another Fox?

From a hockey standpoint he's not a lot unlike Fox? Wicked shot and some good skills.

 

But a guy who plays a hard game without being particularly big and strong? Which then becomes hard to project into NHL success against world class athletes. And again like Fox he does it with cunning and stealth instead of speed. Which further reinforces it will be a challenge to project into an NHL career. I doubt he will be a first rounder being redrafted. 

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He'll fall to the third again, though the author does make some valid points. Honestly, he's an overager now, and didn't show loyalty to the team that drafted him the first time. I wouldn't put too much hope in snagging him in the top 60, as teams wouldn't wan to take the risk. The question is, were the Sharks not interested, even though his ELC would slide? Or was Sadowy not willing to sign with them? 

 

Strange, and wouldn't touch him with our first two picks.

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"The potential first round pick no one's talking about" seems more like clickbait exaggeration than truth. Why would any team use their first rounder on a 20 year old when you can draft an 18 year old with comparable numbers and two years to improve on them and surpass Sadowy? Makes absolutely no sense. The only real plus is that you may get a player who's theoretically closer to the NHL but that's what Gillis said about drafting 20 year old Alex Mallet in the 2nd round (and he had a better year than Sadowy did).

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  • Templeton Peck changed the title to [Report] Shark now but will he be re-entering the draft and where would he Rank?
On 5/11/2016 at 1:35 PM, DeNiro said:

70 points in 64 games as an overager? Is that really worth spending a first round pick on?

 

I would say he's moved up to late 2nd early 3rd if he's drafted again.

Let's not do another Mallet....I think if he's still around in the 5th, maybe take a flyer on him.

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