[Trade] Canucks trade Jared McCann, 2nd-round pick, 4th-round pick to Panthers for Erik Gudbranson, 5th-round pick

[D-Money]

One thing is definitely measurable: Luongo's stats since he got to Florida. Despite his age, he's been playing extremely well, and it's at least partly due to effective support from his defense.

 

Another thing that was measurable was Luongo's reaction to this trade...it was a clear and resounding "WTF is this???"

 

Luongo's opinion >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Yost's take

 

[WHL rocks]

3 hours ago, Kragar said:

Thanks for posting, as this is interesting.  I'm curious if the higher shot totals he faces are less due to his play in neutral and offensive zones as opposed to average TOI and he and Willy playing shutdown roles.  It is great seeing the increased likelihood of perimeter shooting.  

 

I'm excited to see what he can do for the team, and I hope he learned a lot from Willy, since I don't recall having someone that reliable since Willy was here.

 I was looking deeper into this whole EG is not great in advanced stats stuff. A TSN article got me interested because they were very critical of the trade from JB's point of view. So I looked deeper. There are many articles and advanced stat graphs, I looked at more than I could understand. 

 

I believe Mitchell didn't help EG's cause in the advanced stat department. They were both used as a shutdown pair and being very familiar with Willy's game I know he can't do much to drive play on the O side of the puck. He can't make a very good pass and has a terrible shot. He's a defensive Dman. So to have 2 defensive Dmen paired together is a bit odd imo.

 

I think EG will show much better in advanced stats if he's paired with a guy like Edler but I don't think he'll spend too much time with him. Hutton is young and needs further development but I think they'll be a good 2nd pairing. In a couple of years if Hutton develops as hoped for this could be a dominant pairing. Canucks look very very good on D going forward. They are young and have Juolevi in the pipeline. Goalie is set with Marky and Demko. Now to get that future 1C and build more skill and scoring up front and the rebuild will come along nicely. We desperately need a future 1C at next year's draft. 

[oldnews]

Willie Mitchell had 36.1% offensive zone starts last year - and next to Gudbranson faced the strongest quality of competition on Florida's blueline.

Thinking that Mitchell 'hurt' Gudbranson's underlying numbers is a misunderstanding.   No, Mitchell didn't hurt Gudbranson's numbers - Gudbranson had 6% higher offensive zone starts overall than Mitchell, meaning he likely had in the range of 10% higher when they weren't paired together - so yeah, Gudbranson's underlying numbers would naturally appear better when not playing with Mitchell - his minutes weren't as hard when playing with Cambell or Kulikov.

Mitchell's job is not to "drive offensive play" - it's to play a shutdown role - and this does not 'hurt' his partner, it simply indicates different situational use/deployment.

Judging shutdown players on shot differential is a sure way to completely whiff on their value and fundamentally misrepresent their effectiveness. 'Analytics' in general remains far too fixated on reductive concepts of 'shot suppression / shot generation" and continues to ironically lack analytical common sense.

Having two defensive blueliners on a pairing isn't 'odd' - it's a shutdown pairing.

The point was to carry the weight and leave the easier minutes to Ekblad, Campbell, and to a lesser extent Kulikov and Petrovic.

When you take the net of Gudbranson's underlying numbers - strongest quality of competition on the Panthers blueline, 42% offensive zone starts, +4.6% ozone finishes produced, outscored the opposition 5 on 5, a relative and corsi on of -7.2 is nowhere near as bad or indicative as "analytics" people would suggest.   The fact they continue to overemphasize and cherry-pick shot attempt differential alone is borderline as uttely simplistic as focusing on a player's plus/minus.

Gudbranson's underlying numbers are fine - the 'analytics' are simply weak and ironically carry negative analytical value.

[Phat Fingers]

3 hours ago, WHL rocks said:

 I was looking deeper into this whole EG is not great in advanced stats stuff. A TSN article got me interested because they were very critical of the trade from JB's point of view. So I looked deeper. There are many articles and advanced stat graphs, I looked at more than I could understand. 

 

I believe Mitchell didn't help EG's cause in the advanced stat department. They were both used as a shutdown pair and being very familiar with Willy's game I know he can't do much to drive play on the O side of the puck. He can't make a very good pass and has a terrible shot. He's a defensive Dman. So to have 2 defensive Dmen paired together is a bit odd imo.

 

I think EG will show much better in advanced stats if he's paired with a guy like Edler but I don't think he'll spend too much time with him. Hutton is young and needs further development but I think they'll be a good 2nd pairing. In a couple of years if Hutton develops as hoped for this could be a dominant pairing. Canucks look very very good on D going forward. They are young and have Juolevi in the pipeline. Goalie is set with Marky and Demko. Now to get that future 1C and build more skill and scoring up front and the rebuild will come along nicely. We desperately need a future 1C at next year's draft. 

WHL,

 

two great posts, had two pluses!  

 

The Yost article was like classic political spin. For some reason the eastern media does not want Vancouver to have nice things.  The Yost article came out almost immediately after the trade, almost as if a Florida employee wrote it.  

 

We have all looked at the trade, with his bias influencing our thinking.  We have had some dark years as a fan base, with very suspect GM's. It is hard to trust the competency of anyone employed by the Canucks. Especially with trades with Dale Tallon, he has gotten the better of us. 

 

I think we won this deal easily. We need a Gudbranson far more than a McCann. So does Florida. 

 

Not it sure what they are going to do on defence this year. They lost Campbell, Mitchell, Gudbranson, Kulikov. Yandle replaces Campbell, Psyck replaces Kulikov, but who is going to take the hard minutes.  

 

Lou is in for a rough ride this year.  They just got things solidified, and boom, change everything on defence. The analytics crowd is cheering, the old school hockey guys are shaking their heads and saying WTF. 

 

Ekblad was highly sheltered last year, by Mitchell and Gudbranson.  Can he sustain his numbers with a significant increase in tougher minutes?

 

The shot graph you provided was really interesting, Lou got some sweet protection when Gudbranson was on the ice. No one was crashing the net, Not even Ovi. We need that more than most teams in the league. 

 

Even with salary as a concern, I still don't see why Florida made this trade, especially without shopping Gudbranson around.  

 

McCann is good, and may pan out.  A big RHD minute munching 24 y/o tough as nails, captain material guy, who allows favourable deployment of more offensive players and protects the team is very hard to come by. 

 

Cheers, E.W.  

[alfstonker]

11 hours ago, D-Money said:

One thing is definitely measurable: Luongo's stats since he got to Florida. Despite his age, he's been playing extremely well, and it's at least partly due to effective support from his defense.

 

Another thing that was measurable was Luongo's reaction to this trade...it was a clear and resounding "WTF is this???"

 

Luongo's opinion >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Yost's take

 

That is one of the factors I used when Lu was bashed on here but alas it was too subtle to be appreciated. D personnel and make-up and even forward defence is a big factor in the effectiveness of a goalie.

 

You just had to look at Thomas with the Bruins to appreciate that.

[alfstonker]

One factor which doesn't get mentioned so much here imo is timing.

 

It seems to me if you believe the Sedins still have what it takes to lead a deep run in the SC then this deal was a win for us.

 

However if, like me, you think that is seemingly unlikely now, then assuming (and I don't think it is too big an assumption) that McCann was all we thought he was, then we have just lost a player who would be starting to bloom by the time Benning has got this team "fixed for a generation of cup runs."

 

While not disappointed too much either way, I do think that McCann would have been just one more exciting talent who would have blossomed around the same time as Boeser, Juolevi, Tryamkin, Demko, Virtanen, Subban, Stecher, Brisebois, Zhukenov etc. bolstered by the players in their prime like Horvat, Baertschi, Hutton, Tanev, Gaunce, Markstrom, Rodin and maybe Etem.

 

Now you could argue that this one player will not make that much difference to the outcome envisaged but taken in it's widest context along with Ericsson I maintain these two moves will likely keep us out of the high end drafts for the next 5 years and probably deny us a position which might have fallen to us by natural progression.

 

In summing up then I feel it might have been a mistake to do this type of deal. I feel we should have signed a seasoned FA D and held onto a talent like McCann. This way (parting with a "high end" asset) will hurt us both by taking out a player who imo will be one of the best but also will consign us in all likelihood to 3/4 years of placing 10-18.

 

The only unknown that may put a hole in my theory as far as I can see is the "JB factor." By that I feel he could pull quite a few rabbits out of the hat (hidden gems) which could circumvent the process and propel us to success.

 

We can only hope but either way I am expecting exciting times ahead.

[terrible.dee]

 

The denial and delusion is unbelievable. 

 

3 quarters for a dollar! NO Two! NO we ROBBED FLA!!

 

Is that why every hockey writer not on the Canucks payroll is saying we were violated on this deal?

 

Where are all the people who were all over the Flames prior to their starting on what has become one of the best rebuilds I have ever seen?

 

Got news folks, WE ARE THE FLAMES OF A FEW YEARS BACK, that wouldn't move on from Iginla, Kipper, Regier and Phanuef and the whole crew that took them to the '04 final. Patching leaks on the Titanic while pretending they were only a few moves away from finishing what they started in '04.

 

Our owner does not want or is not able to withstand the financial pressures of a rebuild, he has DEMANDED that this team earn playoff revenue. Gudbranson Erikkson these acquisitions make ZERO sense. 

 

Ya dat sure werked for de Coilerz! You say? That is the exception, not the rule. This years cup champ Penguins were built the EXACT same way as the Oilers, last years champion Hawks were built EXACTLY the same way as the Oilers, I could go on but you get the point.

 

We are treading water to stay a float, but if we don't stop thrashing our arms we can't grab the life preserver. Gudbranson is just more dead weight dragging us to the bottom.

 

Send the Sedins the Vegas for their first rounder. Send Edler to the minors until he accepts whatever trade can be made. Send Hanson and Sutter to a playoff team at the deadline,  Tanev's worth will never be higher, trade him NOW and whatever else is necessary to acquire the possibility of an offensive center. Y'know, do what Burke would have done, 

[terrible.dee]

1 hour ago, Eastcoast meets Westcoast said:

 

Even with salary as a concern, I still don't see why Florida made this trade, especially without shopping Gudbranson around.  

 

 

3

They did

 

In this day and age when word on the street is that Defensemen are truly hard to acquire and when one is available, a good one, everyone swarms. The fact is that NHL GM's don't think Gudbranson is that great.

 

Why did they make this trade? Because FLA did not think Gudbranson was a very important part of thier teams success going forward. I.E FLA did not think Gudbranson was all that great.

 

Notice a pattern of opinion starting to form here? Among professional evaluators of NHL talent?

 

[Alflives]

1 hour ago, terrible.dee said:

They did

 

In this day and age when word on the street is that Defensemen are truly hard to acquire and when one is available, a good one, everyone swarms. The fact is that NHL GM's don't think Gudbranson is that great.

 

Why did they make this trade? Because FLA did not think Gudbranson was a very important part of thier teams success going forward. I.E FLA did not think Gudbranson was all that great.

 

Notice a pattern of opinion starting to form here? Among professional evaluators of NHL talent?

 

Gudbrandson is a friggin stud.  I think the best evaluation of his abilities comes from Luongo and Mitchel, who both when hearing of the trade responded with: "WTF".  In those two players' opinions your evaluation of Gudbrandson is way off base.  This trade was a bend over by JB.  

[Alflives]

10 hours ago, WHL rocks said:

Shots against with EG on ice in Red, without EG on ice in blue. Very clear EG helps keep the crease clear and shots to the outside. His team does face a lot of shots against when he's on the ice, he doesn't drive play but keep in mind he was paired with Willie Mitchell most of the time, that guy with the 8 ft. stick. Hopefully with a different partner EG will do better and play more in the neutral zone and offensive zone. 

 

 

This is a cool chart.  Does it take into account PK minutes and D-zone starts?  

[Salacious Crumb]

2 hours ago, terrible.dee said:

They did

 

In this day and age when word on the street is that Defensemen are truly hard to acquire and when one is available, a good one, everyone swarms. The fact is that NHL GM's don't think Gudbranson is that great.

 

Why did they make this trade? Because FLA did not think Gudbranson was a very important part of thier teams success going forward. I.E FLA did not think Gudbranson was all that great.

 

Notice a pattern of opinion starting to form here? Among professional evaluators of NHL talent?

 

Florida made the trade because some pencil pushing analytics geek thought he was replaceable. That and they won't be able to afford his next contract at the end of this season. Tallon thinks he is future Captain material. Luongo and Mitchell were choked he was traded.

 

I can't wait for him to play 5 games as a Canuck - maybe then you won't come here and lump yourself in with "professional evaluators of NHL talent." You are terrible Dee.

[Phat Fingers]

3 hours ago, terrible.dee said:

They did

 

In this day and age when word on the street is that Defensemen are truly hard to acquire and when one is available, a good one, everyone swarms. The fact is that NHL GM's don't think Gudbranson is that great.

 

Why did they make this trade? Because FLA did not think Gudbranson was a very important part of thier teams success going forward. I.E FLA did not think Gudbranson was all that great.

 

Notice a pattern of opinion starting to form here? Among professional evaluators of NHL talent?

 

Terrible Dee,

 

Can you provide a link or some quotes. I have heard of nothing around Gusbranson being shopped around. 

 

The news was all about the playoffs and all the pundits were surprised by the deal. As far as I know, no rumours about him being shopped were posted and everyone was shocked on this board, good and bad. 

 

Can you also provide a link or article of GM's thinking that Gudbranson is not well regarded. 

 

Thanks E.W.

[Phat Fingers]

4 hours ago, alfstonker said:

One factor which doesn't get mentioned so much here imo is timing.

 

It seems to me if you believe the Sedins still have what it takes to lead a deep run in the SC then this deal was a win for us.

 

However if, like me, you think that is seemingly unlikely now, then assuming (and I don't think it is too big an assumption) that McCann was all we thought he was, then we have just lost a player who would be starting to bloom by the time Benning has got this team "fixed for a generation of cup runs."

 

While not disappointed too much either way, I do think that McCann would have been just one more exciting talent who would have blossomed around the same time as Boeser, Juolevi, Tryamkin, Demko, Virtanen, Subban, Stecher, Brisebois, Zhukenov etc. bolstered by the players in their prime like Horvat, Baertschi, Hutton, Tanev, Gaunce, Markstrom, Rodin and maybe Etem.

 

Now you could argue that this one player will not make that much difference to the outcome envisaged but taken in it's widest context along with Ericsson I maintain these two moves will likely keep us out of the high end drafts for the next 5 years and probably deny us a position which might have fallen to us by natural progression.

 

In summing up then I feel it might have been a mistake to do this type of deal. I feel we should have signed a seasoned FA D and held onto a talent like McCann. This way (parting with a "high end" asset) will hurt us both by taking out a player who imo will be one of the best but also will consign us in all likelihood to 3/4 years of placing 10-18.

 

The only unknown that may put a hole in my theory as far as I can see is the "JB factor." By that I feel he could pull quite a few rabbits out of the hat (hidden gems) which could circumvent the process and propel us to success.

 

We can only hope but either way I am expecting exciting times ahead.

Gudbranson will also have value in a number of years as trade bait, if we did start to tank.  Same with Eriksson. In two years when the Sedins contract is over, JB has plenty of options to unload assests if  need be. 

 

It is debatable whether we are going in the right direction. This is going to be an intriguing season. I like our group this year.  At least in comparison to the past 3 years. 

[PhillipBlunt]

2 minutes ago, Eastcoast meets Westcoast said:

Gudbranson will also have value in a number of years as trade bait, if we did start to tank.  Same with Eriksson. In two years when the Sedins contract is over, JB has plenty of options to unload assests if  need be. 

 

It is debatable whether we are going in the right direction. This is going to be an intriguing season. I like our group this year.  At least in comparison to the past 3 years. 

True. This team is definitely younger, tougher, larger, and more mobile than any incarnation in the last three years.

 

Benning has made moves to make the team more capable of managing the physical grind that playing in the West, and especially the Pacific is. That can't be denied.

 

Gudbranson is a necessary piece of any defense hoping to neutralize an aggressive forecheck, a defense that already boasted some massive size in Tryamkin, who in his 13(?) game stint proved to possess more than just an immense frame.

 

Eriksson is large and strong enough to be a beneficial piece to aid in the continuance of Sedinery, which as many know is still a ways away from it's expiry date.

 

This team will fair better than last year's, without any doubt. How well it fares will fall to how effectively Desjardins utilizes his roster, and how quickly and effectively the chemistry of the team envelops the new acquisitions.

 

That's what the analyticzz peanut shufflers don't take into account. Chemistry. How a team goes from being a bunch of individuals, to a unit that has each others backs, and a common and unifying goal.

[Boudrias]

4 hours ago, terrible.dee said:

 

The denial and delusion is unbelievable. 

 

3 quarters for a dollar! NO Two! NO we ROBBED FLA!!

 

Is that why every hockey writer not on the Canucks payroll is saying we were violated on this deal?

 

Where are all the people who were all over the Flames prior to their starting on what has become one of the best rebuilds I have ever seen?

 

Got news folks, WE ARE THE FLAMES OF A FEW YEARS BACK, that wouldn't move on from Iginla, Kipper, Regier and Phanuef and the whole crew that took them to the '04 final. Patching leaks on the Titanic while pretending they were only a few moves away from finishing what they started in '04.

 

Our owner does not want or is not able to withstand the financial pressures of a rebuild, he has DEMANDED that this team earn playoff revenue. Gudbranson Erikkson these acquisitions make ZERO sense. 

 

Ya dat sure werked for de Coilerz! You say? That is the exception, not the rule. This years cup champ Penguins were built the EXACT same way as the Oilers, last years champion Hawks were built EXACTLY the same way as the Oilers, I could go on but you get the point.

 

We are treading water to stay a float, but if we don't stop thrashing our arms we can't grab the life preserver. Gudbranson is just more dead weight dragging us to the bottom.

 

Send the Sedins the Vegas for their first rounder. Send Edler to the minors until he accepts whatever trade can be made. Send Hanson and Sutter to a playoff team at the deadline,  Tanev's worth will never be higher, trade him NOW and whatever else is necessary to acquire the possibility of an offensive center. Y'know, do what Burke would have done, 

I wanted a house cleaning in the summer of 2012 but that didn't happen. For me no player is ever sacred on a roster. Set a team direction and timeline and then build it out accordingly. Doing a rebuild by bits and pieces might be a safer business move and since the fans in Van generally do not understand how to rebuild then I can see why they are going the route they are. You suggest ownership is the reason they are doing it this way but I would also suggest that it is a safer move for management as well. Most management do not last a full rebuild as fans become impatient or they simply misjudge there players who do not reach their anticipated top ends. The NHL is a unforgiving entity where winning a CUP is the only end result worth discussing. Benning/Linden could do everything right and still not get a CUP winner.

 

I would argue that if the Canucks had blown the team up in 2012 that they would now be in a position where the team could show signs of progress. IMHO Benning has done a good job with the direction the Canucks have taken. At that I still do not think this club is anywhere close to deep enough in prospect talent. The org's ability and Benning's eye for talent has to work almost flawlessly.

 

Why so down on Gudbranson? I admit that I have not seen him play a lot. I thought he became available because of his pending UFA status and the Florida need to resign a number of players. That as well as a rookie dman (Mathieson?) who is coming on strong made Gudbranson moveable.

[Phat Fingers]

4 hours ago, terrible.dee said:

They did

 

In this day and age when word on the street is that Defensemen are truly hard to acquire and when one is available, a good one, everyone swarms. The fact is that NHL GM's don't think Gudbranson is that great.

 

Why did they make this trade? Because FLA did not think Gudbranson was a very important part of thier teams success going forward. I.E FLA did not think Gudbranson was all that great.

 

Notice a pattern of opinion starting to form here? Among professional evaluators of NHL talent?

 

Terrible Dee,

 

Here is a quote from Sportsnet.ca. 

" It’s a curious deal. The Panthers weren’t actively shopping Gudbranson, but thought that perhaps McCann might be available. So they gave Vancouver a call. The Canucks weren’t actively shopping McCann, either, but were aggressively pursuing a second-pairing defenceman on the trade market. They were willing to listen – particularly when the Panthers didn’t balk outright when Vancouver asked about Gudbranson"

 

Seems like you are incorrect with your strong assertion that Gudbranson was shopped around. That he was not well regarded by GM's. There are more articles to cite if you would like me too.  

 

E.W.  

[Phat Fingers]

Added to the above post. 

 

Dale Tallon on Erik Gudbranson being an RFA: "He's not going anywhere. He is likely going to be the captain of our team some day."

 

Looks like his own GM at the time highly regards him. 

 

Dale Tallon is a good judge of talent. 

 

Looks like the turnover in the Panthers office led to this trade.  The new ownership has embraced Analytics with staggering speed. 

 

Hard to determine if the Panthers will be better for it this season. 

[PhillipBlunt]

16 minutes ago, Eastcoast meets Westcoast said:

Added to the above post. 

 

Dale Tallon on Erik Gudbranson being an RFA: "He's not going anywhere. He is likely going to be the captain of our team some day."

 

Looks like his own GM at the time highly regards him. 

 

Dale Tallon is a good judge of talent. 

 

Looks like the turnover in the Panthers office led to this trade.  The new ownership has embraced Analytics with staggering speed. 

 

Hard to determine if the Panthers will be better for it this season. 

But the Hockey News says they will be in the hunt for the Stanley Cup!

[aGENT]

5 hours ago, terrible.dee said:

 

The denial and delusion is unbelievable. 

 

3 quarters for a dollar! NO Two! NO we ROBBED FLA!!

 

Is that why every hockey writer not on the Canucks payroll is saying we were violated on this deal?

 

Where are all the people who were all over the Flames prior to their starting on what has become one of the best rebuilds I have ever seen?

 

Got news folks, WE ARE THE FLAMES OF A FEW YEARS BACK, that wouldn't move on from Iginla, Kipper, Regier and Phanuef and the whole crew that took them to the '04 final. Patching leaks on the Titanic while pretending they were only a few moves away from finishing what they started in '04.

 

Our owner does not want or is not able to withstand the financial pressures of a rebuild, he has DEMANDED that this team earn playoff revenue. Gudbranson Erikkson these acquisitions make ZERO sense. 

 

Ya dat sure werked for de Coilerz! You say? That is the exception, not the rule. This years cup champ Penguins were built the EXACT same way as the Oilers, last years champion Hawks were built EXACTLY the same way as the Oilers, I could go on but you get the point.

 

We are treading water to stay a float, but if we don't stop thrashing our arms we can't grab the life preserver. Gudbranson is just more dead weight dragging us to the bottom.

 

Send the Sedins the Vegas for their first rounder. Send Edler to the minors until he accepts whatever trade can be made. Send Hanson and Sutter to a playoff team at the deadline,  Tanev's worth will never be higher, trade him NOW and whatever else is necessary to acquire the possibility of an offensive center. Y'know, do what Burke would have done, 

 

4 hours ago, terrible.dee said:

They did

 

In this day and age when word on the street is that Defensemen are truly hard to acquire and when one is available, a good one, everyone swarms. The fact is that NHL GM's don't think Gudbranson is that great.

 

Why did they make this trade? Because FLA did not think Gudbranson was a very important part of thier teams success going forward. I.E FLA did not think Gudbranson was all that great.

 

Notice a pattern of opinion starting to form here? Among professional evaluators of NHL talent?

 

[AriGold]

On 25/05/2016 at 6:04 PM, Nail said:

JB back it at it again with the $&!# trades!

Opinion on the trade now after 2 months?