What Are We Really Missing By Losing 33rd Overall?

[pushfrog7]

Hi All,

 

It seems that the McCann/Gudbranson trade is an extremely polarizing topic for Canucks fans. Some think it is a genius move on Benning's part whereas others (like canucksarmy.com) think this is the worst deal in the long sad history of bad deals in Hockey (I'm hyperbolizing a little). The main crux of that seems to be giving up the 2nd and 4th round draft picks so I wanted to take a look to see what a 33rd pick overall actually means. Very simply, I went to Wikipedia and got a list of the draft picks who went from #31 to #40 (top of the second round) starting with the legendary 2004 draft and ending with the 2013 draft. I widened the range to make up for the fact that I had no idea what the player rankings were at that time so I figured the top ten picks in the second round would have been relatively scouted as being "on par" with each other. 

 

So, with 10 picks per year and 10 draft years, how many top of the second round players developed into significant players in the NHL? ("Significant" meaning "Oh, yeah, that guy ... sure, I guess I'll draft him in my fantasy team")

 

2004 Draft

David Bolland (32nd Overall)

 

2005 Draft

James Neal (33rd Overall)

Marc-Edouard Vlasic (35th Overall)

 

2006 Draft

Michal Neuvirth (34th Overall)

Jamie McGinn (36th Overall)

 

2007 Draft

No One

 

2008 Draft

Jakob Markstrom (31st Overall)

Jake Allen (34th Overall)

Roman Josi (38th Overall)

 

2009 Draft

Ryan O'Reilly (33rd Overall)

 

2010 Draft

Justin Faulk (37th Overall)

 

2011 Draft

No One (Ok, maybe John Gibson)

 

2012 Draft

No One

 

2013 Draft

No One

 

So, out of 100 names, we have 10, maybe 11 names who are still relevant in the NHL today. What this seems to suggest is that there is a strong correlation between top second round picks and having little to no significant impact in the NHL. 

 

To conclude, did the Canucks overpay for Gudbranson? Possibly. And on paper it certainly looks it. But, in reality? There is a strong correlation between top second round picks and having them not impact their teams to suggest that the Canucks did not actually pay that much for a Gudbranson.

 

Curious to hear your thoughts!

[ForsbergTheGreat]

I'll post this here too.  If were are thinking we could find a D with that pick.  Here is some stats to chew on.

 

Quote

Between 1996-2010, 162 defensemen have been drafted.  60 had never played a single NHL game, 52 players haven’t played more than 100 games.  And there’s only 6 elite D to have come out of it. 

 

• P.K. Subban
• Shea Weber
• Roman Josi
• Duncan Keith
• Marc-Edouard Vlasic
• Travis Hamonic

 

So for anyone complaining about missing out being able to draft the next great D in the 2nd round.  You’re crying over a 3.7% chance. 

and during that same 15 year time span, there were 37 D selected between spots 31-38.  Only 17 players have played over 50 games, they are:.

 

Quote

Nick Schultz
Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Kevin Klein
Roman Josi
Justin Faulk
Alexei Semenov
Vyacheslav Voynov
Jon Merrill
Brendan Mikkelson
Taylor Chorney
Alex Petrovic
Cody Goloubef
Mark Popovic
Nolan Yonkman
J.F. Fortin
Matthew Spiller
T.J. Brennan

 

[khay]

I think the high second is like going over the left pile from the first round. Some good ones might still remain especially in a deep draft but in most cases, all the good ones have already been taken by the others.

 

[Blue Jay 22]

I don't think they overpaid. I think it was a fair deal. I think Gudbrandson is exactly what this team needed and I think McCann and the 2nd were assets that hurt to lose.

 

Side note: You really cherry picked those names in those drafts. There are plenty of guys I would love on my team taken in the 2nd round.

2013: Too early, but there is some great prospects in pipelines.

 

2012: Same situation, but I'd gladly take Severson and Tierney today.

 

2011: Gibson is a definite, he would go Top 10 in his draft. You are also forgetting Brandon Saad (c'mon), Boone Jenner (missed him), Nikita Kucherov (really), and Victor Rask.

 

2010: Forgot Tyler Toffoli, Oscar Lindberg, Calvin Pickard, Ryan Spooner, and Jon Merril.

 

2009: Tomas Tatar, Brandon Pirri, Dimitri Orlov, Jakob Silfverberg.

 

I could go on, but I don't feel like it. Point is that Gudbranson is a good player to have, but 2nd round picks are not just throw ins. With good scouting, they can find some bright diamonds in the rough. I'd still do this deal 10 times out of 10, but McCann and the 2nd was heavy (but fair) price to pay.

 

[Qwags]

We're not missing out on anything big.

[Angry Goose]

If the Canucks drafted a kid like Johansen (assuming he was still available) it would have taken a long time before he could have made the line up (assuming he develops into a NHL player).  What the Canucks lose in another asset they gain in development time and a for sure thing.  Gudbranson is still young and a proven NHL'r.  Heck, being a former 3rd overall pick, the Canucks skipped all of Gudbranson's development time, and are getting a guy who is ready to go.  

[JustABandwagoner]

Tyler Benson

[TheCerebral1]

Cam Dineen, was someone I was looking hard at 33rd for sure.  

[iceman64]

More importantly and why a lot of folks aren't getting this is way beyond me, finally!!! we're getting one thing accomplished but done right a past issue won't be a issue any longer and this trade for gudbranson helped...  what's the issue?  As it's been for many many years, we have had a core of a really good team that got into the playoff's but would end up getting beat on by physically bigger teams and not getting far... 

 

Gubranson brings size!  Size does matter!  LOL!  If i was benning i'd not only go after Dubois with 5th pick, i'd make a deal for Logan Brown as well and make a serious effort to sign Wierioch.

 

Tell me then who would make a run at the twins or any star on the team without harsh repercussion but unlike trying the "goon" syle of a fighter or 2 for that, it's a bigger stronger team over all that makes the situation better. Benning is transforming the team into a bruin type team and that's fine with me! Tired of watching the team get beat on physically year after year...

[Warhippy]

Nothing like forecasting eh

 

Of course some of the most dominant defensemen of the last 10 years have been drafted in the 2nd round or are named Burns or Karlsson.

 

We've analyzed every single player in the possible 33 range.  We know what's there, we know/knew our needs.

 

Of the most recent 2nd round picks we traded away, they were used to draft Roland McKeown and Rasmus Andersson, both D men, both at or near PPG numbers

 

If we can forecast we can also go with hindsight.  And it is hard to not think had Benning kept those 2nd round picks and drafted said players instead we wouldn't be far deeper or at least comfortable as an org with our D prospect depth.

 

 

[LaBamba]

I know everyone needs stuff like this to soothe the sting of losing 33rd overall. I get that, but to say we aren't missing anything big is a little silly. Of course we are.

 

Its going to be really hard for us to match the pain Fla will be feeling next season. They just gave away a core piece for what will most likely be nothing to add in return for next season. 

 

I think we hosed them

 

 

[shazzam]

More often than not, it's a crap shoot. Maybe Benning feels like he has identified some players that he could pick up in the later rounds that could turn out better. We don't know the master plan. We just hope there is one and it's good

[Shift-4]

The only thing missing is a chance to listen to people bitch about who Benning picked    

[BenSurgeon]

It might have been a trade that the Canucks needed to make but I just question whether they gave up too much. 

[Rick Blight]

It is obviously fun for everyone to speculate what we may have lost in giving up the 2nd round pick but the truth is that we will never know as we will never know who Benning would have chosen with that pick. A player like Gudbranson does not become available everyday and I am comfortable with the assets we gave up to obtain him.

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, Rick Blight said:

It is obviously fun for everyone to speculate what we may have lost in giving up the 2nd round pick but the truth is that we will never know as we will never know who Benning would have chosen with that pick. A player like Gudbranson does not become available everyday and I am comfortable with the assets we gave up to obtain him.

I'm kind of shocked we didn't have to give up more?

[Rick Blight]

3 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I'm kind of shocked we didn't have to give up more?

Based on what Edmonton and Calgary gave up to obtain Reinhart/Hamilton I would tend to agree.

[granpappy]

8 minutes ago, Rick Blight said:

It is obviously fun for everyone to speculate what we may have lost in giving up the 2nd round pick but the truth is that we will never know as we will never know who Benning would have chosen with that pick. A player like Gudbranson does not become available everyday and I am comfortable with the assets we gave up to obtain him.

doesn't matter who he would have picked.  any pick beyond 33 who becomes a success will be the one jb could have had and will be the one(s) pointed out for years

[Type R]

I was thinking about this at length last night and this morning and this is the conclusion I came up with.

 

Benning is a lot of things, and isn't a lot of others, but what everyone in the hockey community understands of him, he is a wicked judge of potential (scout).  IF GMJB doesn't see value at the players he has scratched in for that 2nd rounder, and he sees Gudbranson being a game changer on our blueline, then this makes a crap ton of sense.

 

Everyone outside of Canuck Nation is saying that Florida got hosed here, and gave up a heart and soul player (future captain) for a fringe NHL prospect who may or may not develop into a top 6 sniper.  Will he fill out, probably, will he fill out and be a force, most likely not but time will tell. 

 

We have had a dire need of D-men that can play in this division against some very strong and heavy teams, well now we got them.  Do we need an offensive d-man?  yep, but all of you would agree that Hutton still has massive upside, and this will allow him to explore it.

 

We had to make a move, Florida was willing to dance without shopping, which means we didn't have to out bid another team (Hi Edmonton), this was a very well played trade, and it makes this team better. 

 

This market will not sit through a rebuild, so honestly, we (the fans) pushed this move just as much as ownership did, and one thing Jims moves is showing us, is he is more comfortable getting up and coming players to build us, rather than start from scratch (the long play).

[Mathew Barzal]

Basically a low first rounder which should have been a home run given Benning's main selling point as a GM.

 

Of course, now that the pick isn't ours its rendered worthless. Forget all about that 15 page thread in the Prospects sub...