Erik Gudbranson | #44 | D

[Wolfgang Durst]

7 hours ago, Duodenum said:

Gudbranson 25 goals for while on the ice, 47 goals against (top 10 in GA in the league amongst dmen)

Shot attempts while on the ice: 610 for, 808 against

Giveaways to takeaway: 15 to 69 over three years (also lowest takeaway ability on the team)

Points: 19 points in 128 games

Minus 20 on the year. -41 over 128 games.

 

Then more advanced ones:

xGF/60: one of the worst in the league

Controlled zone exits: terrible

Scoring chances for/60: brutal

Goals above replacement: only dman on the team performing below replacement level

Corsica rating: near last place in entire league

WAR: one of the worst (might be the worst, haven't checked)

 

(everyone does better without Gudbranson)

 

Let's face the facts people. Can you explain the above? I certainly can't come up with an excuse for Gudbranson. 

 

Can anyone explain why Gudbranson is a good defenseman but cannot 1) drive any offense and 2) keep the puck out of his own net

 

This is hockey. To break it down simply, you win by outscoring the opponent. Other things like toughness help in that regard but can't be seen on the scoresheet. One thing is certain though and that's the best teams have players that supply character and toughness, but can play the game of hockey as well. Gudbranson cannot. He has shown this for 3 years.

 

If after 3 years of watching Gudbranson pull the puck out of his own net hasn't shown you why he's a liability, please explain why. 

 

Excellent post.

Really like your deep dive on Gudbranson's stats.

With -20 he is munching minus points like other people are munching sandwiches.
In fact you don't have to look into the stats corner.

It's fully sufficient to watch his game to come up with the conclusion that he is (non !)- performing.

It speaks volumes that the Guddy fangroup is not even willing to enter into a discussion. Instead of responding to the stats they are attacking you as a person !! ?? Unbelieveable. Obviously you have a point.

The only positives I have heard are his toughness (oh wait - haven't seen this in the road game in Florida when Matheson smashed Pettersson to the ice), his leadership and the fact that he is a great teammate.

 

No words from Guddy's fanboys about:

- his awful puckhandling

- his inablitity to read plays

- his heavy and sluggish feet, even forwards with average speed blow past him with ease and create 2 on 1 situations

- just a handful of games in which he produced offensively

- poor positioning

- inability to lift the forwards stick to prevent the forward from scoring goals, it seems like that he doesn't have the power to do so

 

What really blows me away is the fact how long it takes him to get his head up to see where his teammates are on the ice and who of them is open for a pass once he receives the puck in the own zone. It feels like it takes ages. In today's game with the agressive and relentless forecheck some top teams display you just don't have this time. Real good D-Man get the head up before they receive the puck and pass it immediately thereafter. 

 

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Wolfgang Durst
clarity

[FaninMex]

Nobody said Guddy is a great D. We were not even supposed to be in a playoff race because our D is so bad.

What we are saying is he fills an important role on the team with out the cringe moments that Pouliot provides.

I think he should do more of it but I think he still seems kinda worried about breaking another face.

I also think that all of you that sit here bashing him will be praising him when / if we get into the playoffs and Petty starts getting close personal attention.

[Skip Spence]

Yeah can’t believe there’s a debate whether Gudbranson is better than Pouloit. 

 

Gudbrandson is awful. A big lumbering brute who’s just awful at ice hockey. Pouliot is a decent two-way defender tbh. 

[SingleThorn]

On 1/21/2019 at 10:43 AM, Skip Spence said:

New member here, not really a fully fledged Canucks-fan, but I’ve started to follow the team recently thanks to Elias Pettersson.

 

20 minutes ago, Skip Spence said:

Yeah can’t believe there’s a debate whether Gudbranson is better than Pouloit. 

 

Gudbrandson is awful. A big lumbering brute who’s just awful at ice hockey. Pouliot is a decent two-way defender tbh. 

Hmmm.......one week later.....wow ! An expert !

[Kootenay Gold]

42 minutes ago, SingleThorn said:

 

Hmmm.......one week later.....wow ! An expert !

Single Thorn don't ya know... we're all experts. That's why we we are all in CDC and not actually managing the team (thank God).

[SingleThorn]

7 minutes ago, Kootenay Gold said:

Single Thorn don't ya know... we're all experts. That's why we we are all in CDC and not actually managing the team (thank God).

Indeed ! Poster also refers to 'ice hockey', as I used to. Means he probably lives in a place where 'field hockey' is referred to as 'hockey' !

 

PS.......I refer to myself as massively over opinionated, but never an expert !

[aGENT]

8 hours ago, Duodenum said:

The question you should be asking is: why does Gudbranson have so many goals against 3 years running in comparison to our other dmen (and around the league)?

 

 

Because he plays largely defensive and PK minutes on a bad team, with suspect partners. 

Edited January 28, 2019 by aGENT

[Duodenum]

26 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Because he plays largely defensive and PK minutes on a bad team, with suspect partners. 

PK minutes are not added in to the totals, they are even strength only. 

Edler and Tanev play the largely defensive minutes. Gudbranson is even sitting on a very comfortable 47% ozone starts this year (actually up to 48.5% now). It'd be over 50% I bet if he wasn't such a chronic icer of the puck. He's not played against other teams top lines either so I don't get the largely defensive angle, maybe you are just used to seeing him play in the defensive zone since he has such a hard time getting out of it? In comparison, Tanev and Edler are sitting at 36 and 38% ozone starts and take the top lines of the other teams night in and night out. That's what defensive minutes look like. 

 

Hutton was the suspect partner on the Hutton-Gudbranson pairing that he's been on 90% of the year? You'd be in the minority there, Hutton has put together a nice season for himself and does well when placed away from Gudbranson. Stecher also did well playing with Pouliot. Whichever pairing Gudbranson plays on, it falters. Same can't be said for the other dmen. Pouliot-Stecher and Hutton-Stecher have both vastly outperformed Hutton-Gudbranson and Pouliot-Gudbranson. 

 

We can also talk about his PK if you wish, where he's also the worst on the team in most metrics despite being on the 2nd pk unit. I haven't really brought that up so far but it's just more evidence to a long long list. 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Duodenum

[JM_]

33 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

PK minutes are not added in to the totals, they are even strength only. 

Edler and Tanev play the largely defensive minutes. Gudbranson is even sitting on a very comfortable 47% ozone starts this year (actually up to 48.5% now). It'd be over 50% I bet if he wasn't such a chronic icer of the puck. He's not played against other teams top lines either so I don't get the largely defensive angle, maybe you are just used to seeing him play in the defensive zone since he has such a hard time getting out of it? In comparison, Tanev and Edler are sitting at 36 and 38% ozone starts and take the top lines of the other teams night in and night out. That's what defensive minutes look like. 

 

Hutton was the suspect partner on the Hutton-Gudbranson pairing that he's been on 90% of the year? You'd be in the minority there, Hutton has put together a nice season for himself and does well when placed away from Gudbranson. Stecher also did well playing with Pouliot. Whichever pairing Gudbranson plays on, it falters. Same can't be said for the other dmen. Pouliot-Stecher and Hutton-Stecher have both vastly outperformed Hutton-Gudbranson and Pouliot-Gudbranson. 

 

We can also talk about his PK if you wish, where he's also the worst on the team in most metrics despite being on the 2nd pk unit. I haven't really brought that up so far but it's just more evidence to a long long list. 

 

you clearly have a dislike for Guddy 

 

I went to look at some of the Corsica site info, not sure I'd be relying too much on their rankings. Goals +/- for instance, would you really want Gardiner and Zaitsav as our top pair? because they're ranked above all our guys. Also just a couple spots down Trouba Morissey and Josi Ellis are right there with Hutton Guddy in GA rankings. 

 

I really think that you are undervaluing the physical element Guddy brings, and to play that way it will come at a statistical cost. Is that "cost" worth it? Many think so, many do not. Clearly Green does. 

 

Where in all these charts does it show us the value of having a guy that can lay a crushing hit? And you can't tell me that isn't important, both to our guys and our opponents who need to worry about it.

 

 

 

 

 

[Rob_Zepp]

On 1/24/2019 at 10:16 PM, SilentSam said:

A team full of EP’s??

.. lol.

he was out for 10 games after a throw down from a player that weighed 15 lbs more than him.

Coaches are tactical, as are players.

like I said, there is a game within the game..  it’s not pretty like Petey..

 

 

Great find.   sooooo many people have not a clue what it is like at ice level.   Much of what you hear (and say) is pretty funny but there is a lot of game within a game that so many "analytics" don't account for.   Intimidation has a role in professional hockey and those who are bound to computer evaluations cannot seem to grasp that concept - and it is also perhaps why so many never seemingly can predict teams that overachieve and/or unexpected teams that have runs in the playoffs.   Talent is fine but Gretzky has no where near the points he has as GOAT if he didn't play with a bunch of guys who cleared the runway for him night in and out.

[Duodenum]

15 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

 

you clearly have a dislike for Guddy 

 

I went to look at some of the Corsica site info, not sure I'd be relying too much on their rankings. Goals +/- for instance, would you really want Gardiner and Zaitsav as our top pair? because they're ranked above all our guys. Also just a couple spots down Trouba Morissey and Josi Ellis are right there with Hutton Guddy in GA rankings. 

 

I really think that you are undervaluing the physical element Guddy brings, and to play that way it will come at a statistical cost. Is that "cost" worth it? Many think so, many do not. Clearly Green does. 

 

Where in all these charts does it show us the value of having a guy that can lay a crushing hit? And you can't tell me that isn't important, both to our guys and our opponents who need to worry about it.

 

 

 

 

 

Clearly Green does not anymore as Gudbranson has played 13 minutes of toi 4 out of the last 5 games. That's a 5-6 minute drop from before. 

 

Context is always important. Gardiner and Zaitsev play on an offensive powerhouse, their +/- is going to be skewed to the positive. Gardiner is, at least, much better than Gudbranson. I don't know about Zaitsev, never watch him play. For all the grief Leafs fans give Gardiner for his turnovers, he has a stingy 1.9GA/60 (although he is being helped a lot by an unsustainable on-ice sv pct of 94.1%). Gardiner is going to be a classic case of you don't know what you have until it's gone situation for them. 

Trouba, Morrisey, and Josi all play way more minutes than Gudbranson does and tougher minutes as well. Their rates are around 2.6GA/60 as top pairing dmen. Gudbranson is almost 3.9GA/60. They are very far apart. 

 

Yea I do have a dislike for Guddy  He's not good yet he gets a pass because he's big. It's not good to have someone this ineffective, no matter what kind of physical element he brings. Find a physical element elsewhere that isn't such a detriment to the team. I'm not downplaying toughness, just that you want to get it from guys who can still play hockey. 

 

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Duodenum

[JM_]

18 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

Clearly Green does not anymore as Gudbranson has played 13 minutes of toi 4 out of the last 5 games. That's a 5-6 minute drop from before. 

 

Context is always important. Gardiner and Zaitsev play on an offensive powerhouse, their +/- is going to be skewed to the positive. Gardiner is, at least, much better than Gudbranson. I don't know about Zaitsev, never watch him play. For all the grief Leafs fans give Gardiner for his turnovers, he has a stingy 1.9GA/60 (although he is being helped a lot by an unsustainable on-ice sv pct of 94.1%). Gardiner is going to be a classic case of you don't know what you have until it's gone situation for them. 

Trouba, Morrisey, and Josi all play way more minutes than Gudbranson does and tougher minutes as well. Their rates are around 2.6GA/60 as top pairing dmen. Gudbranson is almost 3.9GA/60. They are very far apart. 

 

Yea I do have a dislike for Guddy  He's not good yet he gets a pass because he's big. It's not good to have someone this ineffective, no matter what kind of physical element he brings. Find a physical element elsewhere that isn't such a detriment to the team. I'm not downplaying toughness, just that you want to get it from guys who can still play hockey. 

 

 

but you're basing the "can still play hockey" theory on some suspect numbers. IMO anyway Corsica is a horrible site to try to figure out who the best dmen in the league are. I actually don't think there is a credible metric on actual defensive play yet. Easier to count shots I suppose. 

 

He's been paired with Pouliot for those games, so that could help to explain the drop in minutes. Maybe there's some wear and tear. Its hard to know exactly why there's been a recent drop, but you can't conclude its based on poor corsi numbers.

 

Anyway I think it comes down to how you as an individual, or teams, value physical play, and who's in your system. I don't see anyone else bringing what he does in the Canucks system and yeah to me thats worth a bobble or two. 

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Jimmy McGill

[Where'd Luongo?]

As I said last year and the year before, he is a good 3rd pairing D. Man did I ever get raked over the coals for saying that last time but I'm right.

[PhillipBlunt]

10 hours ago, Duodenum said:

I thought the bold might help our local posters with weaker reading comprehension.

Then I went a step further with the underlining. 

Somehow, it still managed to get by you Phillip, outstanding work. 

 

Let me find it for you again, I'll make it a bit easier this time.

 

If after 3 years of watching Gudbranson pull the puck out of his own net hasn't shown you why he's a liability, please explain why. 

 

Wait that didn't work last time, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you're not just a useless troll. Here you go:

 

If after 3 years of watching Gudbranson pull the puck out of his own net hasn't shown you why he's a liability, please explain why. 

 

I'm here to discuss a player, not trade insults. Stop trying to goad people into a confrontation. If you have nothing, that's fine. Stop insulting those that do. 

I'm not really concerned what you're here to do, and really couldn't care less how you feel about posts that don't completely comply with your narrative. You can format your text until you're blue in the face, it won't change the fact that you're obsessed with Gudbranson, and are essentially trolling pretty hard on the player.

 

Deflect all you want in attempts to make it look otherwise. Hold on to the stats/analytics that have been proven to be inaccurate when concerning defensemen. The more you talk, the clearer it is that your actual knowledge of the game is basic and skewed.

[Duodenum]

7 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

but you're basing the "can still play hockey" theory on some suspect numbers. IMO anyway Corsica is a horrible site to try to figure out who the best dmen in the league are. I actually don't think there is a credible metric on actual defensive play yet. Easier to count shots I suppose. 

 

He's been paired with Pouliot for those games, so that could help to explain the drop in minutes. Maybe there's some wear and tear. Its hard to know exactly why there's been a recent drop, but you can't conclude its based on poor corsi numbers.

 

Anyway I think it comes down to how you as an individual, or teams, value physical play, and who's in your system. I don't see anyone else bringing what he does in the Canucks system and yeah to me thats worth a bobble or two. 

 

How many goals a guy lets in isn't really suspect though. If you have a guy who keeps the opposition to scoring 2 goals against for every 60 minutes he's out there, he's worth a lot more than the guy who lets up 4 in the same time frame. There's other things involved: deployment, quality of your teammates and opponent, etc. But Gudbranson has shown to be consistently bad for years on end. Pouliot was chugging along just fine next to Stecher and playing 16-17 minutes per game. Once he got paired with Gudbranson, his minutes have tanked as well. 

 

I hope Green has finally seen the light and realized the Canucks have a better chance of winning if Stecher gets more minutes and Gudbranson less. I only use Corsica as an add on. I didn't even look up Gudbranson's statistics until I saw just how poorly he has played for the Canucks since he arrived. 

 

It's worth a bobble or two, but he's giving up a lot more than that. His saving grace is that he doesn't usually turn the puck over (because he rarely passes forward). So, optically, it's more difficult to see how bad he is. Just watch the next few games. See how he gives up the blue-line so easily to opposing players. Watch how they can dump the puck behind him and gain control because he pivots so slowly. That's what I noticed first before realising just how bad his numbers are. 

 

I don't know, whatever you look up for Gudbranson, he's terrible at. So we can sit and question every single metric out there or accept that maybe he's not very good. I think people just look at giveaways and think that's what makes a defenseman good or not. There's so much that goes into defense like gap control that Guddy struggles at. It's just harder for people to see. 

[Duodenum]

Just now, PhillipBlunt said:

I'm not really concerned what you're here to do, and really couldn't care less how you feel about posts that don't completely comply with your narrative. You can format your text until you're blue in the face, it won't change the fact that you're obsessed with Gudbranson, and are essentially trolling pretty hard on the player.

 

Deflect all you want in attempts to make it look otherwise. Hold on to the stats/analytics that have been proven to be inaccurate when concerning defensemen. The more you talk, the clearer it is that your actual knowledge of the game is basic and skewed.

The more you respond, the clearer it becomes that you have nothing. More of the same antics. How can we question Phillip's knowledge of the game with all of these solid posts he's bestowed upon us. All talk, no substance, as per usual. Go troll somewhere else. 

[Skip Spence]

3 hours ago, SingleThorn said:

 

Hmmm.......one week later.....wow ! An expert !

I’ve seen three full matches this season and never before have I been aware of the player. That’s enough to know Gudbrandson is awful at hockey. The dude who posted the statistical rundown above made the point better than me. Can’t really judge whether his intimidation effect makes up for his poor hockey skills though I’d wager no. 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Skip Spence

[aGENT]

2 hours ago, Duodenum said:

PK minutes are not added in to the totals, they are even strength only. 

Edler and Tanev play the largely defensive minutes. Gudbranson is even sitting on a very comfortable 47% ozone starts this year (actually up to 48.5% now). It'd be over 50% I bet if he wasn't such a chronic icer of the puck. He's not played against other teams top lines either so I don't get the largely defensive angle, maybe you are just used to seeing him play in the defensive zone since he has such a hard time getting out of it? In comparison, Tanev and Edler are sitting at 36 and 38% ozone starts and take the top lines of the other teams night in and night out. That's what defensive minutes look like. 

 

Hutton was the suspect partner on the Hutton-Gudbranson pairing that he's been on 90% of the year? You'd be in the minority there, Hutton has put together a nice season for himself and does well when placed away from Gudbranson. Stecher also did well playing with Pouliot. Whichever pairing Gudbranson plays on, it falters. Same can't be said for the other dmen. Pouliot-Stecher and Hutton-Stecher have both vastly outperformed Hutton-Gudbranson and Pouliot-Gudbranson. 

 

We can also talk about his PK if you wish, where he's also the worst on the team in most metrics despite being on the 2nd pk unit. I haven't really brought that up so far but it's just more evidence to a long long list. 

They may not be added in your totals but I'm discussing the player as a whole, not cherry picked information to suit a narrative. It's part of the reason he has a role on this team. Which would seem to be the question we're really asking here, no?

 

Guddy is at 47% Ozone, and yet you compare him to Stecher (52%), Hutton (50%) and Pouliot (53%) and our two top pairing guys who nobody is declaring he should replace. Gee I wonder why the first three have 'better analytics'? Is it because they're perhaps used in roles more suited to their skills with more offensive starts in more offensive situations? Guddy's here as a secondary option to Edler/Tanev, to give them those minutes and ozone starts. This is the problem with trying to sum up players and how they fit on a team when you simply don't understand different roles our how hockey is actually played, on ice, with actual people, and not a series of numbers on a spread sheet. Never mind that analytics frankly do a piss poor job of valuing/measuring defensive play, physicality etc. And if you don't think those have a role in hockey...

 

Hutton's bounced back to be a fairly decent D this year. Doesn't mean he hasn't been an ill fit with Gudbranson. In that situation I'd say they've both been 'suspect' together as they seem to have almost no chemistry. But that doesn't make Hutton a 'bad' D any more than it does Gudbranson.

 

Pouliot (while nowhere near as bad overall as many on CDC seem to think) is indeed 'suspect', while also being one of our better D at transitioning the puck and pushing offense (more a commentary on how badly we need Quinn and OJ). Also the reason he is still in the lineup much to the chagrin of those CDC'ers and despite sometimes suspect plays that frequently tend to Markstrom digging the puck out of our net.

 

Our D's biggest problem is a lack of bonafide, primary, top 4 (and more specifically top 2) D and a somewhat poor fit/loose collection of uncomplimentary parts in depth roles. If one of Tanev or Guddy played left rather than right, they'd likely make a half decent shut down 2nd pair. That's not our reality however.

 

He plays well with Edler but that isn't going to lead to more offense from Edler on a team desperate for offense from the D. And Edler, being our only legit first pair capable D wouldn't be full value if forced in to a 2nd pair, defense only role that would be more at the ceiling of Gudbranson's abilities. If we had the luxury of two other top pair D, they'd likely make a hell of a second pair though (and maybe that happens in a couple years as Edler ages/gets extended).

 

Then we have...Doesn't fit with Hutton, Stecher's also a righty (and likely also an ill fit) and Pouliot's a 6/7 D, also an ill fit and sometimes suspect. This is the symptoms of a rebuilding team with a mish mas of (sub par) parts. Pretty hard for any of them to find vast success in those conditions (particularly for a defensive player) and one of many reasons we've had a poor record and players have had poor years during this period.

 

Same reason Markstrom 'wasn't a starter' until we got healthy again and had better depth this year. Same reason Edler had 'poor years' the first few years of the rebuild... etc, etc... You can't separate individual performance from the team.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by aGENT

[PhillipBlunt]

36 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

The more you respond, the clearer it becomes that you have nothing. More of the same antics. How can we question Phillip's knowledge of the game with all of these solid posts he's bestowed upon us. All talk, no substance, as per usual. Go troll somewhere else. 

Once again, when someone doesn't agree with you, the petulant child act comes out. At least you're consistent in your predictability. Go stat yourself.

[Zhukini]

My favourite is the notion that we need to give Guddy certain players to get the best out of him. 

 

He's going to be 28, he is what he is, there's only one way for him to go, and it isn't up. He shouldn't be babied by having to play with Edler, if he isn't good enough on his own, he isn't good enough period. 

 

I HOPE they don't put him anywhere near Hughes when he gets here in March.