Comparing Line-Ups; Last Year vs. Next Year

[JamesB]

In the second half of last season, the Canucks were the worst team in the Western Conference and gave Toronto (who were intentionally tanking) a run for being the worst team in the NHL. The Canucks had two key injuries (Sutter and Edler) and not enough talent. I just looked at some boxscores and have constructed a representative lineup for last year's second half. That can be compared with the likely line-up for next year and we can see if we expect improvement.

 

The easiest way to do this is by position, as it is hard to define lines. I have ordered the players by Time on Ice per game for each position. And I am looking at the SECOND HALF of last year, when the Canucks really struggled:

 

Goal:

 

Last year: Miller, Markstrom.

Next year: Miller Markstrom

 

Prediction -- no obvious change in performance. Pretty good goaltending last year should continue next year.

 

Defence:

Last year (ordered by TOI, with Edler out): Tanev, Hamhuis, Hutton, Weber, Bartkowski, Sbisa

Next year (predicted depth chart by TOI): Edler, Tanev, Guddy, Hutton, Tryamkin, Sbia

 

Prediction -- obviously the D should be much better with Edler healthy, Guddy in the lineup, Hutton a year older with some age-reated improvment, and I think Tryamkin will pass Sbisa on the depth chart. Larsen and Pedan will also play and could pass Sbisa. But losing Hammer is a bigger loss that a lot of people think. Still, the D will be better. I expect Larson and Pedan 7th man and 8th man.

 

Center:

Last year: Henrik, Horvat, Vey, Granlund, McCann.

Next year: Henrik, Sutter, Horvat, Granlund.

 

Prediction. The expectation for Henrik is slight age-related decline. Having Sutter healthy should help and both Horvat and Granlund can be expected to show some age-related improvement. But the big difference is Sutter instead of Vey, which should help.

 

Wingers: (I took the guys who played the most games and ordered them by TOI per game)

Last year: Daniel, Hansen, Vrbata, Burrows, Etem, Baertschi, Dorsett, Virtanen, Gaunce)

Next year: Daniel, Eriksson, Hansen, Baertschi, Rodin, Burrows, Etem, Dorsett, Virtanen.

 

Prediction: The only change in personnel relative to the second half of last year is Eriksson instead of Vrbata. Obviously that should be a big improvement. Daniel and Burrows would be expected to have slight age-related decline, Dorsett and Hansen should be about the same except, after a career year, I would expect regression to the mean for Hansen. Baertschi, Etem and Virtanen should all show age-related improvment. I also expect Rodin to make the team and push Gaunce back to Utica.

 

 

Bottom Line: The Canucks should finally exhibit more age-related improvement rather than age-related decline. The D will be better but still won't generate a lot of offense. It will, however, make life easier on the Canuck forwards, which should help the offense. The big question marks are how much progress the  young guys make and what Rodin can do.

 

Is this team good enough to make playoffs against San Jose, LA, Anaheim, and an improved Edmonton team? Calgary and Arizona won't pushovers either. Maybe.

 

 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Time to trot out my usual "too early to tell" response. 

 

So much depends on whether or not players like Rödin and Larsen prove themselves competent roster players in camp/preseason.

 

If we have a middle six scoring winger in Rödin, the forward lineup looks better.

 

If we have a capable 5v5 PMD and power play quarterback in Larsen, the D looks much better.

 

Not to mention whether JB manages to acquire that additional "rugged scoring winger" through trade.

 

Certainly we should expect some bounce back if we're healthy. And Eriksson is a nice addition who will help us up-and-down the lineup (he's a Swiss Army knife type who can play on any line and can ignite slumping linemates). Gudbranson should help the D, if nothing else he'll provide needed R/L balance in the order and take some of the harder matchups off our top pairing. And I suspect he has some untapped ability that will surprise the doubters.

 

But the biggest factor I see is how well the new pieces fit (and if JB is even done adding) plus how capable the European signings prove to be as NHLers.

 

If things go well, this is definitely a playoff team. If things fall short, it's another (high) lottery pick.

 

Too early to tell.  

[Glory_Days]

It's looking better than it was last year, but we still lack offense, our D will be harder to play against but I could see us having some trouble at getting trapped in our own zone depending on who's on the ice and our goalies are average, not top 10, not bottom 10, just average.

 

If we were in the East, I'd say we might have a chance of maybe sneaking into a wildcard spot. West is just too strong.

 

Dallas, Chicago, Anaheim, Nashville, Minnesota, San Jose, LA Kings, St Louis are all clearly better than us.

 

Calgary, Winnipeg, Arizona are all looking better. Colorado looks about the same...Edmonton is still a joke.

 

Too many games against division/conference teams that are better than us where points will be hard to come by.

 

 

[Rocksterh8]

There is hope for all 30 teams at the beginning of each year. As the season progresses, hope fades...

[chon derry]

guddy and tryamkin on the backend , eriksson, a heathy sutter ,and rodin up front right off the hop 5 new additions to the start of this season we didn't have last year , sutter for the 1st 10 ,tryamkin for the last 13 last year ,with the subtractions of weber, vey, higgens, vrabta, bartkowski , how can it not be better?

[oldnews]

Relatively healthy = playoffs.

 

The M.A.S.H. unit again = nope.

 

I think the team is better equiped to deal with injuries this year however.  More viable depth and better quality depth imo.

 

I also like their chances of improving through an additional trade or signing.

 

I'm not convinced they'll still lack as much offensive punch.

 

I think they'll have a third line this year (barring another barrage of injuries) - and I think all three top lines will be more productive.

 

Ericksson improves the top unit.

Sutter returning improves the 2nd - as does a year older Virtanen or whomever winds up at 2RW.

Hansen with Horvat (who is in an easier position this year) - should really help, and Etem could also uptick.

Lots of possibilities for the 4th line with Gaunce, Burr, Granlund, Dorsett et al - a solid line to roll imo.

 

Top pairing still a solid two way pairing, but won't have to handle as hard minutes - should help.

Gudbranson should really enhance Hutton's production for a number of reasons - and make life easier all around.

The third pairing = significant improvement with Sbisa, Tryamkin, and Pedan options - as well as the potential of Larsen taking a spot and providing some real speed and upside.  That is a real wild card that could give them a 2nd puck mover in addition to Hutton, and a right handed one - great potential for the powerplay and for the easier minutes that those top pairs could potentially provide for Larsen' pairing.  Sbisa, as far as I'm concerned has been improving steadily and if he's not required to step up to a larger role as he has the past two seasons, people may find themselves quite impressed by him if he sees depth type deployment.

 

I like the balance of this roster a great deal more.  The added defensive strength enhances possession and could boost production.

 

Very much looking forward to this season.

 

[Rush17]

8 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Relatively healthy = playoffs.

 

The M.A.S.H. unit again = nope.

 

I think the team is better equiped to deal with injuries this year however.  More viable depth and better quality depth imo.

 

I also like their chances of improving through an additional trade or signing.

 

I'm not convinced they'll still lack as much offensive punch.

 

I think they'll have a third line this year (barring another barrage of injuries) - and I think all three top lines will be more productive.

 

Ericksson improves the top unit.

Sutter returning improves the 2nd - as does a year older Virtanen or whomever winds up at 2RW.

Hansen with Horvat (who is in an easier position this year) - should really help, and Etem could also uptick.

Lots of possibilities for the 4th line with Gaunce, Burr, Granlund, Dorsett et al - a solid line to roll imo.

 

Top pairing still a solid two way pairing, but won't have to handle as hard minutes - should help.

The blueline - Gudbranson should really enhance Hutton's production for a number of reasons.

The third pairing = significant improvement with Sbisa, Tryamkin, and Pedan options - as well as the potential of Larsen taking a spot and providing some real speed and upside.  That is a real wild card that could give them a 2nd puck mover in addition to Hutton, and a right handed one - great potential for the powerplay and for the easier minutes that those top pairs could potentially provide for Larsen' pairing.  Sbisa, as far as I'm concerned has been improving steadily and if he's not required to step up to a larger role as he has the past two seasons, people may find themselves quite impressed by him if the sees depth type deployment.

 

I like the balance of this roster a great deal more.  The added defensive strength enhances possession and could boost production.

 

Very much looking forward to this season.

 

Mash that's a dated reference lol

[Derp...]

Canucks will get 94 points next year, hows that for a prediction?

 

We should see about 30-25 more goals from this team, and probably 20 or so less goals against too if JB's bets pay off and barring long injuries. 219 goals up from 186, but still less than the 236 we had in 2014-2015. If our Goals against per game stays below 2.7 and we can score at about 2.7 there's a good chance we will make the playoffs.

 

The biggest challenge will be given 0.3 less goals per game (we gave up 2.9 or so this year). If we can do that we should see some solid improvements. If not well, we will probably finish in the 8-14 range for next year's draft. Miller and Markstrom both had about 2.7 GAA in net which means the other goals against were from empty netters. If they improve at all, and we are actually holding leads at the end of games it will balance out. We have good enough goaltending to make the playoffs, but they will need about 2.5 GAA's if we want to replicate the 2014-15 season.

 

Daniel 22 goals

Henrik 12 goals

Eriksson 26 goals

Baertschi 20 goals

Sutter 18 goals

Horvat 17 goals

Hansen 15 goals

Etem 14 goals

Rodin 12 goals

Virtanen 12 goals

Granlund 8 goals

Burrows 6 goals

Dorsett 4 goals

Gaunce 3 goals

Grenier 2 goals

 

190 Goals from Forwards

 

Edler 8 goals

Larsen 5 Goals

Hutton 4 Goals

Gudbrason 4 Goals

Tryamkin 3 goals

Tanev 2 goals

Sbisa 1 Goal

Pedan 1 goal

 

28 Goals from D Men

 

 

 

 

[The Lock]

This is pretty much what others have already said, but I think there are too many "x factors" at the moment. It's really going to depend on who shows themselves at the start of the season, who continues to show themselves later on, if anyone rises up during the season, etc. There are obviously injuries that have evidently been a huge factor for us in the past to whether or not we're successful.

 

All of that aside, the thing is, we weren't really a bad team last year. We had a lot of close games. We competed even down the stretch. I think we are better than last year as Gudbranson's a much needed upgrade and Eriksson is an upgrade over the Vrbata that we originally signed.

 

I'm not expecting us to reach the playoffs. I am however expecting us to compete. I am expecting us to try and reach the playoffs. If we reach the playoffs, then I believe we have a chance at pulling off what Edmonton and Calgary did the previous decade and go for a run. We might not do that, but there's always the chance any playoff team can do that.

[smithers joe]

my only concern would be the second line...sutter is suppose to centre that line...i think we have the players to make it a pretty good checking line but probably not to make it a scoring line.....who will fit with sutter to make this a scoring line...?...

[Outsiders]

Sedin-Sedin-Eriksson

Baertschi-Horvat-Hansen

Rodin-Sutter-Hansen (edit - Virtanen)

Etem-Granlund-Dorsett

Burrows??

 

Edler-Tanev

Hutton-Gudbranson

Tryamkin-Larsson/Sbisa

 

Miller

Markstrom

[Googlie]

15 minutes ago, Outsiders said:

Sedin-Sedin-Eriksson

Baertschi-Horvat-Hansen

Rodin-Sutter-Hansen

Etem-Granlund-Dorsett

Burrows??

 

Edler-Tanev

Hutton-Gudbranson

Tryamkin-Larsson/Sbisa

 

Miller

Markstrom

double-shifting Hansen? ... who's going to PK then?

[Derp...]

Burr is pk only now. Hansen takes his 5v5 shifts lol

[smithers joe]

i might be tempted putting virtanen on lw with sutter and hansen....it would be a speedy line..don't know how many goals they would score...they could still pick up a 2nd line winger...

[RogersTowell]

58 minutes ago, Googlie said:

double-shifting Hansen? ... who's going to PK then?

Maybe there are two, or possibly three Hansens.  Foiling up before the game, of course.  Or maybe he meant to put Virtanen in there somewhere.

[Outsiders]

1 hour ago, Googlie said:

double-shifting Hansen? ... who's going to PK then?

Sorry meant Virtanen 

[Googlie]

Erikssson and the Sedins

(their line name might be "the has-beens")

but though old, they're still shifty

their passes are nifty

and in November their goals are all in the teens

 

Then there's Bo, Honey Badger and the Bear

a line with speed to scare

a retriever, playmaker and sniper

who've got CDC all hyper

50 points a month could be there

 

moving on to Etem, Sutter and Jake

there's a line that could make teams quake

with their hitting and scoring

they'll never be boring

but Lady Byng they'll never take

 

Then finally our energy line

probably makeshift most of the time

Only Granny's the fixture

and any of the rest in the mixture

(Burr, Dorsett, Gaunce or Rodin) will be fine

 

[HC20.0]

It's gonna depend on a number of things. Specifically, how will our new players like Rodin fare? Huge question marks. And the other teams. I feel a lot of Western teams got better.

 

Anaheim - Got worse if anything, but still elite.

LA - Ditto

San Jose - Fresh outta the finals. 

Calgary - Greatly improved, could contend for a spot.

Edmonton - Improved, but still not expecting playoffs.

Arizona - Wont make the playoffs, but wont be pushovers either.

 

That's just the division, forget the stacked Central. There are so many question marks right now. But, I do feel that we are greatly improved. I don't expect a Bottom 5 finish again. I expect us to challenge for a playoff spot. 

[Me_]

2 hours ago, Derp... said:

Burr is pk only now. Hansen takes his 5v5 shifts lol

Sign Burrows @ $1.000MIL/ 1yr for PK and shootouts.

 

he could probably play another five years on the fourth line.

[coastal1]

6 hours ago, JamesB said:

In the second half of last season, the Canucks were the worst team in the Western Conference and gave Toronto (who were intentionally tanking) a run for being the worst team in the NHL. The Canucks had two key injuries (Sutter and Edler) and not enough talent. I just looked at some boxscores and have constructed a representative lineup for last year's second half. That can be compared with the likely line-up for next year and we can see if we expect improvement.

 

The easiest way to do this is by position, as it is hard to define lines. I have ordered the players by Time on Ice per game for each position. And I am looking at the SECOND HALF of last year, when the Canucks really struggled:

 

Goal:

 

Last year: Miller, Markstrom.

Next year: Miller Markstrom

 

Prediction -- no obvious change in performance. Pretty good goaltending last year should continue next year.

 

Defence:

Last year (ordered by TOI, with Edler out): Tanev, Hamhuis, Hutton, Weber, Bartkowski, Sbisa

Next year (predicted depth chart by TOI): Edler, Tanev, Guddy, Hutton, Tryamkin, Sbia

 

Prediction -- obviously the D should be much better with Edler healthy, Guddy in the lineup, Hutton a year older with some age-reated improvment, and I think Tryamkin will pass Sbisa on the depth chart. Larsen and Pedan will also play and could pass Sbisa. But losing Hammer is a bigger loss that a lot of people think. Still, the D will be better. I expect Larson and Pedan 7th man and 8th man.

 

Center:

Last year: Henrik, Horvat, Vey, Granlund, McCann.

Next year: Henrik, Sutter, Horvat, Granlund.

 

Prediction. The expectation for Henrik is slight age-related decline. Having Sutter healthy should help and both Horvat and Granlund can be expected to show some age-related improvement. But the big difference is Sutter instead of Vey, which should help.

 

Wingers: (I took the guys who played the most games and ordered them by TOI per game)

Last year: Daniel, Hansen, Vrbata, Burrows, Etem, Baertschi, Dorsett, Virtanen, Gaunce)

Next year: Daniel, Eriksson, Hansen, Baertschi, Rodin, Burrows, Etem, Dorsett, Virtanen.

 

Prediction: The only change in personnel relative to the second half of last year is Eriksson instead of Vrbata. Obviously that should be a big improvement. Daniel and Burrows would be expected to have slight age-related decline, Dorsett and Hansen should be about the same except, after a career year, I would expect regression to the mean for Hansen. Baertschi, Etem and Virtanen should all show age-related improvment. I also expect Rodin to make the team and push Gaunce back to Utica.

 

 

Bottom Line: The Canucks should finally exhibit more age-related improvement rather than age-related decline. The D will be better but still won't generate a lot of offense. It will, however, make life easier on the Canuck forwards, which should help the offense. The big question marks are how much progress the  young guys make and what Rodin can do.

 

Is this team good enough to make playoffs against San Jose, LA, Anaheim, and an improved Edmonton team? Calgary and Arizona won't pushovers either. Maybe.

 

 

Is it your prediction that there will be no significant injuries this year. The miraculous year 2016-17!!