[Article] Las Vegas roster could be stealth winner of 2016 free agency

[Roger Neilsons Towel]

An interesting article by Thomas Drance of Sportsnet about the 2016 Free Agency and it's possible effects on the Expansion Draft, including a mention of the Canucks and the signing of Loui Eriksson. 

 

 

Las Vegas roster could be stealth winner of 2016 free agency

 

THOMAS DRANCE 
JULY 6, 2016, 10:07 AM

 

Can an NHL team be considered a “winner” in free agency without signing a single player?

 

It seems they can. All the top players get overpaid when free agency opens anyway, the theory goes, and at least a team that elects to sit on its hands hasn’t made any expensive, long-term errors.

 

Now, how about an NHL team that is yet to play a single game?

 

In an odd quirk, it sure seems like one of the stealth winners of the 2016 free agent signing season is the Las Vegas-based NHL expansion franchise, which is still without a name, a logo, or an official front office staffer. Based on what’s been made public concerning the NHL’s rules for the 2017 expansion draft, it seems that few teams benefitted as much from the flurry of free agent signing activity as did the yet-to-be-named Sin City franchise.

 

The rules for the 2017 NHL expansion draft are the most generous in NHL history. First- and second-year professionals and unsigned draft choices are exempt — as they were in the last round of NHL expansion — but teams can protect far fewer roster players this time around.

In the last series of NHL expansion drafts – which stretched from 1998 through to 2000 – clubs could elect to protect either nine forwards, five defencemen and one goaltender, or protect two goaltenders, three defencemen and seven forwards. This time around, no team will be permitted to protect two goaltenders, and can instead elect to protect either seven forwards and three defencemen, or four forwards and four defencemen.

 

Intuitively, it should be apparent that the expansion system is set up to provide the newest NHL club with decent goaltending and relatively significant defensive assets right off the bat. It’s a sensible approach. Goaltending is the great equalizer, and if you want to create a reasonably competitive team quickly, it helps to allow the new club to build from the net out.

The superior pool of blue-line talent likely to be available in the expansion process could have other competitive benefits. Forwards are easier to find as they’re generally the more plentiful asset in free agency. Defencemen, as this offseason has proven, are a more marketable commodity on the trade market.

 

Only a team with four above-average defenders – like the Nashville Predators – is likely to elect to protect only four forwards, and some clubs – such as the New York Islanders and Minnesota Wild – are sure to expose good pieces no matter what protection structure they opt for, barring something dramatic.

 

The crucial thing to remember is that the 2017 NHL expansion draft has protection rules built around the concept of player volume. So we can understand why some of the most aggressive clubs in free agency made decisions this past weekend that may reverberate into next June.

 

For example, even as the Florida Panthers jettisoned Dmitri Kulikov and Erik Gudbranson in off-season trades, they also added high-quality unrestricted free agent defencemen in Jason Demers and Keith Yandle.

 

Protecting franchise cornerstone Aaron Ekblad in the expansion draft is a no-brainer and Yandle has a no-movement clause, so he will automatically be protected. From there, the Panthers will likely elect to protect only one of Mark Pysyk, Alex Petrovic and Demers – all relatively youthful and effective NHL-level blue liners.

“Expansion is unpredictable,” Panthers assistant general manager Steve Werier told Sportsnet this week. “If the thought process is that you’re a team that wants to win, do you mortgage your ability to do so on the off chance that a player you like might catch the eye of the expansion club next summer? If you think you have a chance to win, you take the bumps down the line and try to mitigate the risk when you get there.”

 

Though Florida aggressively re-made their blue line over the past eight weeks, even quieter teams will have their protected lists impacted by this summer’s free agent signings.

 

The Detroit Red Wings signed forward Frans Nielsen to a contract that carries a no-move clause on July 1, so he’ll be automatically protected in an expansion draft. Once Detroit also protects the likes of Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar and Riley Sheahan, the Red Wings will only be able to protect two of the following forwards: Darren Helm, Justin Abdelkader, Tomas Jurco, Teemu Pulkkinen and hotshot prospect Andreas Athanasiou.

Either way, Las Vegas will be adding a talented player.

The Islanders, who were already in a probable expansion draft bind because of their deep defence corps, similarly added a no-movement contract on July 1 in Andrew Ladd. With Ladd and John Tavares automatically joining likely no-brainers such as Brock Nelson, Anders Lee and Ryan Strome on New York’s probable protected list, the club will only be able to protect two of the following forwards: Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, Casey Cizikas, Josh Bailey, Cal Clutterbuck, Jason Chimera, Shane Prince and young playoff hero Alan Quine.

 

And on and on it goes. Loui Eriksson looks like a good fit for the Vancouver Canucks, but his no-movement clause could force the club to make a difficult decision to protect only one of Jannik Hansen, Anton Rodin, Emerson Etem or Markus Granlund next June.

 

Mikkel Boedker and David Schlemko will add needed speed in San Jose, but adding Boedker likely means that the Sharks may need to decide which one of Tommy Wingels, Melker Karlsson, Joel Ward or Chris Tierney to protect in expansion.

As for Schlemko, he joins a relatively large group of unrestricted players that signed with new teams this past week, but could still be made available in next June’s expansion draft. We’ve already noted Chimera and Demers, but Dan Hamhuis could be another candidate, as could new Wild forwards Eric Staal and Chris Stewart.

 

 

With the 2017 expansion draft less than 12 months away, the majority of NHL teams still appear to be biding their time. Only a precious few moves appear to have been directly motivated by expansion so far – the Frederik Andersen trade is the standout – and it seems that the vast majority of teams with obvious expansion liabilities aren’t intent on behaving like motivated sellers on the trade market at this point.

In free agency, similarly, most NHL teams seemed to focus on building and improving for next season. Managing expansion-related risk will surely come a bit later.

 

It’s a reasonable approach for teams to take. It’s also one that could benefit the Las Vegas expansion franchise.

 

Source: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/las-vegas-roster-stealth-winner-2016-free-agency/

 

 

Thoughts? 

[Raymond Luxury Yacht]

I think there will be a lot of roster moves and inter-club transactions in the months before the expansion draft.  Teams will want to make sure they protect the players they want.  Perhaps it will be a favourable time for trading and waiver pick ups.  I'm excited to see how it all goes down.  Maybe that's partly why TL is planning on bringing in Juolevi slowly....other than him needing to add weight and strength.

[Rick Blight]

There will be lots of movement between now and the expansion draft so it is far too early to speculate on the players that will be made available for the expansion draft. Suffice to say, Las Vegas should be able to ice a more competitive team in a shorter period of time than previous expansion teams. I suspect there will be a lot of "surprise" players made available but we should keep in mind that teams can only lose one player. I doubt the impact will be significant for any team.

[Fanuck]

We'll likely see an unprecedented year at the TDL and whatever the window is before the expansion draft occurs. 

 

Look to see several roster players moving for picks and some guys being asked to waive their clauses. 

 

Also expect to see some GM's use this expansion draft as a 'get out of jail free ' card to jettison some bad contracts.

 

Will be interesting to see what happens.  

[Vinny in Vancouver]

8 minutes ago, Raymond Luxury Yacht said:

I think there will be a lot of roster moves and inter-club transactions in the months before the expansion draft.  Teams will want to make sure they protect the players they want.  Perhaps it will be a favourable time for trading and waiver pick ups.  I'm excited to see how it all goes down.  Maybe that's partly why TL is planning on bringing in Juolevi slowly....other than him needing to add weight and strength.

How does Juolevi playing in the NHL this season impact which player gets protected in the Canucks?

[Fanuck]

1 minute ago, vinny_in_vancouver said:

How does Juolevi playing in the NHL this season impact which player gets protected in the Canucks?

It shouldn't,  he would be exempt. 

[Rick Blight]

2 minutes ago, vinny_in_vancouver said:

How does Juolevi playing in the NHL this season impact which player gets protected in the Canucks?

Likely wouldn't but if Juolevi were to make the team this year they may be in a better position to move a d-man prior to the draft. It is unlikely, but possible, that it could change their mind on whether to protect 3 or 4 d-men as allowed by the expansion guidelines.

[Vinny in Vancouver]

Just now, Fanuck said:

It shouldn't,  he would be exempt. 

Yup, that's what I thought. Fortunately enough, the Canucks' poor drafting pre-Benning makes it easy for the Canucks to prepare for the expansion draft. The expansion draft actually makes talented but young players more valuable to teams that have too many players that they need to protect. It should make for some interesting trades.

[Quantum]

Like in past Expansion drafts, I expect teams to trade certain picks/prospects/other roster players in order to "guarantee" that certain players left unprotected don't get claimed. It's a strategy teams have employed in the past. Most notably in the 2000 NHL expansion draft the Buffalo traded Jean-Luc Grande-Pierre, Matt Davidson, and two fifth-round draft picks, one each in the 2000 and 2001 Entry Drafts, to Columbus on June 23, 2000, after the Blue Jackets agreed not to select Dominick Hasek and Martin Biron.

 

So I'm sure NHL teams this season, once LV announces who its GM is, will likely make pre-emptive trades (likely starting during the 2017 NHL Playoffs) to make sure certain unprotected players don't get claimed. It's a strategy that'll likely help LV stockpile some draft picks/buried prospects as it builds its prospect pool too.

 

I don't expect the Canucks to make any trades to "protect" any players. The only expansion related trade I expect is that Richard Bachman will be moved for an expansion eligible goalie with 2 years on his deal (instead of 1) so that the Canucks have a goalie they can expose in the draft. My other expectation is that the Canucks will likely lose one of Sbisa, Etem, or Dorsett in the Expansion too.

[Rick Blight]

Just now, Quantum said:

Like in past Expansion drafts, I expect teams to trade certain picks/prospects/other roster players in order to "guarantee" that certain players left unprotected don't get claimed. It's a strategy teams have employed in the past. Most notably in the 2000 NHL expansion draft the Buffalo traded Jean-Luc Grande-Pierre, Matt Davidson, and two fifth-round draft picks, one each in the 2000 and 2001 Entry Drafts, to Columbus on June 23, 2000, after the Blue Jackets agreed not to select Dominick Hasek and Martin Biron.

 

So I'm sure NHL teams this season, once LV announces who its GM is, will likely make pre-emptive trades (likely starting during the 2017 NHL Playoffs) to make sure certain unprotected players don't get claimed. It's a strategy that'll likely help LV stockpile some draft picks/buried prospects as it builds its prospect pool too.

 

I don't expect the Canucks to make any trades to "protect" any players. The only expansion related trade I expect is that Richard Bachman will be moved for an expansion eligible goalie with 2 years on his deal (instead of 1) so that the Canucks have a goalie they can expose in the draft. My other expectation is that the Canucks will likely lose one of Sbisa, Etem, or Dorsett in the Expansion too.

The NHL has put new regulations in place to prevent these past deals from happening again. We will have to see how successful these changes are.

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592

 

[Where's Wellwood]

18 minutes ago, Quantum said:

Like in past Expansion drafts, I expect teams to trade certain picks/prospects/other roster players in order to "guarantee" that certain players left unprotected don't get claimed. It's a strategy teams have employed in the past. Most notably in the 2000 NHL expansion draft the Buffalo traded Jean-Luc Grande-Pierre, Matt Davidson, and two fifth-round draft picks, one each in the 2000 and 2001 Entry Drafts, to Columbus on June 23, 2000, after the Blue Jackets agreed not to select Dominick Hasek and Martin Biron.

 

So I'm sure NHL teams this season, once LV announces who its GM is, will likely make pre-emptive trades (likely starting during the 2017 NHL Playoffs) to make sure certain unprotected players don't get claimed. It's a strategy that'll likely help LV stockpile some draft picks/buried prospects as it builds its prospect pool too.

 

I don't expect the Canucks to make any trades to "protect" any players. The only expansion related trade I expect is that Richard Bachman will be moved for an expansion eligible goalie with 2 years on his deal (instead of 1) so that the Canucks have a goalie they can expose in the draft. My other expectation is that the Canucks will likely lose one of Sbisa, Etem, or Dorsett in the Expansion too.

Bachman is an expansion eligible goalie. 

[Raymond Luxury Yacht]

31 minutes ago, vinny_in_vancouver said:

How does Juolevi playing in the NHL this season impact which player gets protected in the Canucks?

It totally doesn't, I'm just saying teams will be doing a lot of jockeying rosters and perhaps keeping players they expect to lose, or don't mind losing.  It won't be business as usual for the GMs until after the draft.  The Juolevi example was to reiterate that I don't think he will be a roster player until after the expansion draft....not because he could be selected or needs protecting.

[Screw]

I remember last time teams were making deals to get something for players they could not protect. The great redistribution of wealth in the NHL.

[Roger Neilsons Towel]

Quote

And on and on it goes. Loui Eriksson looks like a good fit for the Vancouver Canucks, but his no-movement clause could force the club to make a difficult decision to protect only one of Jannik Hansen, Anton Rodin, Emerson Etem or Markus Granlund next June.

This is the part of the article i was referring to in the OP that has so far not been talked about. Which one of these 4 players would you protect and why?

[Tortorella's Rant]

Stupid having to give up one of our players for a new team. There's a few scrub franchises worthy of relocation.

[elvis15]

1 hour ago, Where's Wellwood said:

Bachman is an expansion eligible goalie. 

He's eligible, but his deal's up after this season. They could certainly just sign him and leave him unprotected if they feel he'd still be of value, but protecting goalies isn't anything we have to worry about with only Markstrom (and Miller if he stays another year) being eligible in the first place.

[SaintPatrick33]

Compared to what past expansion teams have faced, I would say the league REALLY wants Las Vegas to succeed (especially with the fees they paid!)

 

Fact is with these new rules they can ice a half-competitive roster instantly, the only thing they will lack is some high end scoring talent. I remember when the Sharks and Lighting entered, man those rosters were brutal essentially all fourth liners or fringe NHLers. This go around you will see some decent names come up. Be interesting to see who they hire as coach and GM

[Fateless]

Quite frankly I'm hoping Hansen is traded at the deadline for a cup-contending team so that we don't have to waste a protection slot for him. I'd much rather keep that option available for Rodin, Etem or Granlund - whichever performs the best this season.

 

 

[Where's Wellwood]

47 minutes ago, elvis15 said:

He's eligible, but his deal's up after this season. They could certainly just sign him and leave him unprotected if they feel he'd still be of value, but protecting goalies isn't anything we have to worry about with only Markstrom (and Miller if he stays another year) being eligible in the first place.

But the rules state that we need to leave an expansion eligible goalie available. Since markstrom is our only eligible goalie, then we need to trade for one or qualify Bachman this off season

[awalk]

Not really a "report" eh... lol