Jump to content
The Official Site of the Vancouver Canucks
Canucks Community

The BC Real Estate Discussion Thread


Harvey Spector

Recommended Posts

More sales and prices creeping up for the 3rd month in a row.

 

To re-cap 2019. It was slow for the first half, ramp'd by the end of the year. Inventory is also low. 

 

Regarding your assessments, remember they estimate the value of your home on July 1. Your recent statement won't have taken into consideration the late upswing of 2019.

 

 

The Vancouver Real Estate Newsletter
January 18, 2020
 

Average Home Prices Increase For Third Month In A Row

The average home price in Vancouver ticked upwards for a third month in a row with the median sales price back over the $1,000,000 mark.

Home sales in the region totalled 2,016 in December 2019, an 88.1% increase from the 1,072 sales recorded in December 2018, and a 19.3% decrease from the 2,498 homes sold in November 2019.

Last month’s sales were 9.5 per cent above the 10-year December sales average.

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for December 2019 is 23.4%. By property type, the ratio is 15.2% for detached homes, 25.7% for townhomes, and 32.5% for apartments. Any amount above 20% is considered a 'Sellers Market'

“Home buyer confidence was a factor throughout the year. In the first quarter, many prospective buyers were in a holding pattern, waiting to see how prices would react to the mortgage stress test, new taxes, and other policy changes,” REBGV President Smith said. “Confidence started to return in the summer, and we saw above average sales in the final quarter of 2019.”

7875ef54-fd29-41e4-b50b-b6f525be918b.jpg
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Smart money left the lower mainland over a year ago.....

 

Vancouver the world's second least-affordable housing market

Hong Kong topped Vancouver and Sydney as the most unaffordable housing market in 2019, according to a report by urban planning policy consultancy

 

https://vancouversun.com/pmn/business-pmn/hong-kong-homes-remain-worlds-least-affordable-for-10th-year/wcm/456faa34-5d0e-4c52-8fbe-bf6b7b5eea10Demographia

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

Am I ever glad my wife and I are planning to buy into the market here on the Island at the end of the year and not anytime in the near future. 

 

Anyone have any predictions on what the current state of the world will have on the housing market? With oil and the markets plunging around the globe, prices will likely come down throughout the year, no?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jester13 said:

Am I ever glad my wife and I are planning to buy into the market here on the Island at the end of the year and not anytime in the near future. 

 

Anyone have any predictions on what the current state of the world will have on the housing market? With oil and the markets plunging around the globe, prices will likely come down throughout the year, no?

Honestly theres no point in guessing and speculating, nobody knows a damn thing.  People have been saying for years that the housing market is going to cool off yet it still keeps being just as in demand as before and atleast out in the fraser valley, everything is selling for atleast asking.  Seen a realtor buddy of mine, of like 6 houses this year already, 1 has been under, 2 over asking, so its not stopping any time soon.  You have to think with this coronovirus more foreigners will probably want to come over to Canada to escape the likely hood of being in the center of these outbreaks again so that will keep our houses selling just fine.

 

I constantly hear from experts "its gonna be a drop and recession" basically since I bought my house 5 years ago, no joke a year after everything was supposed to drop and I had friends saying "oh yea told you it was gonna drop and get cheaper look at what these guys are saying" and yet my house has raised in value every year since.  Realtors, experts, etc. really have no damn clue, we aren't in your usual market, lots of ours is influenced by outside investments so unless the government puts a stranglehold on that (which I believe they can't do by law and we know Federally they wont change that) then its not gonna sink us at all.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Russ said:

Honestly theres no point in guessing and speculating, nobody knows a damn thing.  People have been saying for years that the housing market is going to cool off yet it still keeps being just as in demand as before and atleast out in the fraser valley, everything is selling for atleast asking.  Seen a realtor buddy of mine, of like 6 houses this year already, 1 has been under, 2 over asking, so its not stopping any time soon.  You have to think with this coronovirus more foreigners will probably want to come over to Canada to escape the likely hood of being in the center of these outbreaks again so that will keep our houses selling just fine.

 

I constantly hear from experts "its gonna be a drop and recession" basically since I bought my house 5 years ago, no joke a year after everything was supposed to drop and I had friends saying "oh yea told you it was gonna drop and get cheaper look at what these guys are saying" and yet my house has raised in value every year since.  Realtors, experts, etc. really have no damn clue, we aren't in your usual market, lots of ours is influenced by outside investments so unless the government puts a stranglehold on that (which I believe they can't do by law and we know Federally they wont change that) then its not gonna sink us at all.  

I don't know, man, I definitely lean more to the cautious side with how things are going. Granted, a market correction has been predicted for a while with one not happening, but history does tend to repeat itself, and there always has been one.

 

With how things are going - i.e. stress test, foreign buyer's tax, covid, Trump, oil, the stock market, etc. - I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that we may finally be in for a pretty large correction. Your statement of buying in the last five years with no correction is moot, to be honest, as we haven't experienced a large-scale recession in the last five years; we very well could be heading towards one finally. I mean, oil and the markets are plunging to levels we haven't seen since the '08 recession and also the Gulf War in '91 for oil. Lastly, Victoria (where I live) was just rated the riskiest/overvalued housing market in Canada, so there's that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Jester13 said:

Am I ever glad my wife and I are planning to buy into the market here on the Island at the end of the year and not anytime in the near future. 

 

Anyone have any predictions on what the current state of the world will have on the housing market? With oil and the markets plunging around the globe, prices will likely come down throughout the year, no?

The one constant during this rise in housing prices has been low interest rates and that is not ending anytime soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/9/2020 at 5:31 AM, Jester13 said:

Am I ever glad my wife and I are planning to buy into the market here on the Island at the end of the year and not anytime in the near future. 

 

Anyone have any predictions on what the current state of the world will have on the housing market? With oil and the markets plunging around the globe, prices will likely come down throughout the year, no?

Just FYI.  I’m on the island.  Speaking for the South Island I cant even begin to explain the level of development happening here......over the course of this thread land continues to be purchased, and developed. Apartment buildings, houses, commercial, churches, townhouses....

 

From the south end of the malahat on in is nothing but the blasting of rock, excavators and truck traffic.

 

now or end of year it won’t matter when you purchase.

 

i have no idea where everyone is coming from.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, riffraff said:

 

i have no idea where everyone is coming from.

the secret is out:

 

Vancouver Island Demographics

 

Population growth continues to be an important factor in the growth of Vancouver Island’s economy. Population growth on the Island is often comparable to the province as a whole and continues to be driven by migration from other regions of Canada and, to a lesser extent, from other regions of BC. The majority of people moving to Vancouver Island typically choose to live in the coastal region on the southeast of the Island between Nanaimo and Victoria. 

 

https://viea.ca/regional-statistic/demographics/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, riffraff said:

i have no idea where everyone is coming from.

I bet some are getting the same idea I had. Sooo happy I made the move. 

With the recent Strata insurance hikes, I could see a lot selling off their city condo's and making the jump to a detached over here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

the secret is out:

 

Vancouver Island Demographics

 

Population growth continues to be an important factor in the growth of Vancouver Island’s economy. Population growth on the Island is often comparable to the province as a whole and continues to be driven by migration from other regions of Canada and, to a lesser extent, from other regions of BC. The majority of people moving to Vancouver Island typically choose to live in the coastal region on the southeast of the Island between Nanaimo and Victoria. 

 

https://viea.ca/regional-statistic/demographics/

This is true for the lower mainland too.  Our driving industry is building housing.  We are creating a false economy.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Alflives said:

This is true for the lower mainland too.  Our driving industry is building housing.  We are creating a false economy.  

Are we building enough? Last I heard inventory was still very low and that developers were holding back..

  • Huggy Bear 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, bishopshodan said:

Are we building enough? Last I heard inventory was still very low and that developers were holding back..

Maybe The developers need to keep the number of new units available close to the number of new buyers, or they will saturate the market?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Maybe The developers need to keep the number of new units available close to the number of new buyers, or they will saturate the market?  

Just to keep the prices high?

 

Sucks since there is quite the need for low income housing. They should green light and fast track that First Nations application for their land at the south end of the Burrard bridge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Alflives said:

This is true for the lower mainland too.  Our driving industry is building housing.  We are creating a false economy.  

well... yes and no. It has real value and also drives secondary industries. I guess it all depends on how much value it all really retains. 

 

The disappointing part is how little Horgan has done. All his big promises and all he's managed to do is kill some equity and provide nothing for young families and first time buyers to get in to. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

well... yes and no. It has real value and also drives secondary industries. I guess it all depends on how much value it all really retains. 

 

The disappointing part is how little Horgan has done. All his big promises and all he's managed to do is kill some equity and provide nothing for young families and first time buyers to get in to. 

What can they do but rezone and go higher? I don’t want to live in another HongKong style density but how else can you make housing cheaper? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

What can they do but rezone and go higher? I don’t want to live in another HongKong style density but how else can you make housing cheaper? 

thats exactly what they do. It doesn't all have to be 60 storey things like they're building in Brentwood. There are a dozen major roadways that they could line with the new style 6 storey wood frame buildings that would go a long way to help. They should all be developed as co-ops imo, its the only affordable way for people to get into a decent new home now. The co-op model can work extremely well, its been great for false creek. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Tortorella's Rant said:

The vastness and openness of this land..

"affordable homes" in Abbotsford starting in the 800s. Affordable maybe if you're a neurosurgeon. 

Or Westerleigh particle board townhouses and no driveway for 600 minimum.

Brand new is overrated

 

This one looks nice ? Helluva lot cheaper than coquitlam still 

 

https://www.rew.ca/properties/2567982/41-35287-old-yale-road-abbotsford-bc?search_params[query]=Abbotsford%2C+BC&searchable_id=1&searchable_type=Geography 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, riffraff said:

Just FYI.  I’m on the island.  Speaking for the South Island I cant even begin to explain the level of development happening here......over the course of this thread land continues to be purchased, and developed. Apartment buildings, houses, commercial, churches, townhouses....

 

From the south end of the malahat on in is nothing but the blasting of rock, excavators and truck traffic.

 

now or end of year it won’t matter when you purchase.

 

i have no idea where everyone is coming from.

Granted, there is lots of development still happening, but I was talking about if we do end up seeing another great recession like '08. I mean, I keep an eye on listings every day, and I've already started to notice places in Esquimalt being listed for quite a bit less than the supply that available only last year. It seems to me like prices have steadied, but what I'm wondering is how the very recent world issues I mentioned previously are going to impact things in the near future. 

 

There seems to be a lot of sentiment that things are still going super strong and prices still climbing, but none of the opinions have so far addressed the recent state of the world. 

  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Please sign in to comment

You will be able to leave a comment after signing in



Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...