Article - Why Vancouver’s success or failure hinges on the second line

[CanadianRugby]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/vancouvers-success-failure-hinges-second-line/

 

The Vancouver Canucks need to put together an effective top-nine forward group. If they can’t, this season is likely to look more like their current five-game losing streak than the four wins they started off with.

 

A lot changed between the fast start and the slowdown. Vancouver’s penalty kill declined (though the power play was basically unchanged). At even-strength, save percentage dropped off, meaning more of the opposition’s shots found the back of the net. At the same time, the Canucks’ shooting percentage dipped, meaning fewer Vancouver shots were turning into goals.

All of those changes matter, but they are dwarfed by the massive shift in the team’s 5-on-5 puck possession game.

When Vancouver was winning games, they were averaging 50 shot attempts per hour, which is a lower-end figure. Over the five-game losing streak, that dropped to just 43 attempts/hour, which is almost off the NHL charts entirely — only the 2015 Sabres, a team basically conceived with Connor McDavid as its sole objective, were worse since the 2012 lockout.

 

 

An even bigger drop occurred at the defensive end of the rink. When the Canucks were winning, their shot suppression was exceptional, allowing just 43 attempts against per hour, a figure which is in traditional New Jersey Devils territory. That defensive game has entirely collapsed over the losing streak, though; Vancouver’s now allowing nearly a shot attempt against for every minute of 5-on-5 play (59 per hour).

 

This is clearly the heart of the problem, and when we dig into the data there’s an obvious culprit: Vancouver’s second line.

 

The chart above shows how each forward’s average Corsi number changed from the winning streak to the losing streak. As a team, the Canucks fell by just under 23 events per hour, or 7.6 events per 20 minutes. That means six of the team’s regular forwards declined by no more than the average amount of the team as a whole.

Three forwards, however, saw their numbers decline by more than double the team average: The line of Brandon Sutter, Markus Granlund and Jannik Hansen, a trio only recently broken up by head coach Willie Desjardins.

 

It’s hard to overstate how vital that line is to the Canucks. In Desjardins’ system, each of his top three forward lines have definite responsibilities. The Sedin twins get reasonably difficult matchups and lots of time in the offensive zone; they’re expected to drive the offence. The Bo Horvat/Sven Baertschi duo gets generally softer matchups (though that’s shifting as Sutter’s line falters), but lots of time in the defensive zone, with the expectation that they limit damage against.

 

The Sutter line was Desjardins’ Swiss Army knife. It’s his go-to choice against tough opponents, relied upon to mop up any leftover defensive zone work and expected to be a secondary scoring unit. That’s a lot of responsibility, and when it falls short the repercussions reverberate across the lineup.

 

Unfortunately for Vancouver, it’s hard to be surprised by this sudden turn of events, which coincides with a more difficult schedule. The line worked for four home games, three of which were against non-playoff teams; it stopped working when the Canucks headed out on the road to play the Kings and Ducks.

 

It starts with Sutter. He just isn’t suited to a 5-on-5 scoring role. The best indication of this might be that over the last four seasons, Derek Dorsett has averaged 1.15 points/hour at even-strength, while Sutter has managed just 1.12 points/hour. Nobody expects Dorsett to centre an offensive line, so it’s long past time to give up on the idea of Sutter as an offensive threat at 5-on-5, though he remains capable of producing on the power play.

 

It’s also difficult to make the case that his defensive zone work makes him the ideal candidate to go head-to-head with Ryan Getzlaf or Connor McDavid, as he did in two recent Vancouver losses. Over three seasons on a very good Pittsburgh team in which he was rarely given the tough matchups (those went, naturally, to Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin) the Pens were not just out-Corsied but were actually out-scored by a significant margin with him on the ice.

 

Giving Sutter a useful complementary winger in Hansen and an as-yet-unestablished NHLer in Granlund and then asking that trio to be a featured two-way line is just begging for trouble.

The injury to Chris Tanev didn’t help, either, though that’s been mitigated to a surprising extent by the strong play of another undrafted right-shot defenceman, Troy Stecher. Stecher somehow has positive shot metrics and has been on for only a single 5-on-5 goal against this season, despite the Canucks losing every game in which he has dressed.

Getting Tanev back should help, as will some recovery in the shooting/save percentage department, but it won’t address the serious problems up front.

 

After the Sedin line, the simple truth is that Vancouver lacks offensive and defensive talent. Much of the roster is young and improving, which is a nicer way of saying “unproven.” Sutter and Hansen are the secondary veterans, which is probably fine for home games against Carolina and Buffalo but turns into a real problem during a California road swing.

The schedule doesn’t get easier going forward. Vancouver plays its next six on the road, comes home to face teams like Dallas and Chicago, and then heads back out for another week.

Desjardins has to somehow cobble together a second line to weather that coming storm. If he can’t, it’s going to be another long season on the West Coast.

[The Weasel]

don't we need a first line first?

[HC20.0]

Don't we just need forwards who can score? Bo's the only one stepping up here.

[apollo]

I still don't get this corsi stuff...

[aGENT]

Sedin, Sedin, Sutter/Hansen

Baer, Granlund, Eriksson (lower QOC and O zone starts)

Virtanen, Horvat, Hansen/Sutter

Burr, Gaunce, Dorsett

[CanadianRugby]

7 minutes ago, HC20.0 said:

Don't we just need forwards who can score? Bo's the only one stepping up here.

No help is coming.  The guys we have need to score if this team is still "going for it".  But yeah, Bo is the only forward I'm impressed with this year. 

[CeeBee51]

Just now, apollo said:

I still don't get this corsi stuff...

Apparently a few of the Canucks don't get it either

[CanadianRugby]

1 minute ago, apollo said:

I still don't get this corsi stuff...

Corsi is a statistic used in the National Hockey League to measure shot attempt differential while at even strength play. This includes shots on goal, missed shots on goal, and blocked shot attempts towards the opposition's net minus the same shot attempts directed at your own team's net.

 

So it's just a stat to determine how many shots your team gets/allows while you're on the ice. 

[CeeBee51]

If Sven and Louie were to pot a couple of goals our lack of scoring would not be so apparent. 

[numb3r 16]

 

[khay]

OK. So another iteration of the problem that we all knew about just with different numbers.

 

I think Sutter is a useful player no doubt but it is true that we cannot be relying him on as the secondary scoring and for all of the tough match ups. 

 

In my opinion, the best overall player on the Canucks is Bo Horvat so it goes without saying that we need to form a strong line centered around Horvat. Sedins are the best offensive players but Bo is the best overall. Time to pass the torch. 

 

I would try Eriksson-Horvat-Sutter as the real 1st line. Thit is the strongest line that I can think of that can be formed given the current roster. All of the players on this line are in their prime years or about to enter their prime (Horvat). And if what the article claims is true, then Sutter alone is not enough for matching up against the best of the NHL. Eriksson is very good at both ends of the ice and is a proven player. Horvat, I believe is already our best overall player.  This line will see 18-21 minutes of ice.

 

The "1st" scoring line will be the Sedin-Sedin-Hansen. They will still get the bulk of the offensive minutes and take their share of defensive duties to ease up the load on the real "1st" line.  Hansen rejuvenates the Sedins with his speed and digging skills.  They will get 16-19 minutes of ice including PP time.

 

I would form a weaker "2nd" scoring line of Baertschi-Granlund-Virtanen. This is a development line, much like the Sedins' line during the WCE era. They will see 12-15 minutes of ice including PP time but against weaker opponents and be allowed to develop some chemistry and hone their skills.

The fourth line will stay the same with Burrows-Gaunce-Dorsett. This is a reliable fourth line that can play 10-15 minutes.

 

[apollo]

19 minutes ago, CanadianRugby said:

Corsi is a statistic used in the National Hockey League to measure shot attempt differential while at even strength play. This includes shots on goal, missed shots on goal, and blocked shot attempts towards the opposition's net minus the same shot attempts directed at your own team's net.

 

So it's just a stat to determine how many shots your team gets/allows while you're on the ice. 

So granlund is -17 

 

That means over the span of 60 minutes of ice time, when he's on the ice, the shots of our opponents would be like 37 and ours 20? For a difference of -17?

[Fateless]

2 minutes ago, apollo said:

So granlund is -17 

 

That means over the span of 60 minutes of ice time, when he's on the ice, the shots of our opponents would be like 37 and ours 20? For a difference of -17?

Yes, of even strength time. And its not just shots but shot attempts (even shots that miss the net or are blocked).

['NucK™]

What we need is a player who can actually keep up with Bo and bury some of the rebounds he creates. 

 

IMO it is absolutely insane how many missed opportunities we have seen over the past YEAR, with Bo driving to the net and absolutely no Canuck forwards anywhere near him. You'd think if WD is encouraging this type of play from Bo, he'd also get someone else driving to the net (220 lb speedy JAKE VIRTANEN maybe would be a good choice??) but no all he wants Virtanen to do is float around the slot and expects him to snipe top corner every time he touches the puck... pathetic deployment of our players and their biggest skillsets

[aGENT]

2 minutes ago, 'NucK™ said:

What we need is a player who can actually keep up with Bo and bury some of the rebounds he creates. 

 

IMO it is absolutely insane how many missed opportunities we have seen over the past YEAR, with Bo driving to the net and absolutely no Canuck forwards anywhere near him. You'd think if WD is encouraging this type of play from Bo, he'd also get someone else driving to the net (220 lb speedy JAKE VIRTANEN maybe would be a good choice??)

 

Agree

 

28 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Sedin, Sedin, Sutter/Hansen

Baer, Granlund, Eriksson (lower QOC and O zone starts)

Virtanen, Horvat, Hansen/Sutter

Burr, Gaunce, Dorsett

 

[mll]

13 minutes ago, khay said:

OK. So another iteration of the problem that we all knew about just with different numbers.

 

I think Sutter is a useful player no doubt but it is true that we cannot be relying him on as the secondary scoring and for all of the tough match ups. 

 

In my opinion, the best overall player on the Canucks is Bo Horvat so it goes without saying that we need to form a strong line centered around Horvat. Sedins are the best offensive players but Bo is the best overall. Time to pass the torch. 

 

I would try Eriksson-Horvat-Sutter as the real 1st line. Thit is the strongest line that I can think of that can be formed given the current roster. All of the players on this line are in their prime years or about to enter their prime (Horvat). And if what the article claims is true, then Sutter alone is not enough for matching up against the best of the NHL. Eriksson is very good at both ends of the ice and is a proven player. Horvat, I believe is already our best overall player.  This line will see 18-21 minutes of ice.

 

The "1st" scoring line will be the Sedin-Sedin-Hansen. They will still get the bulk of the offensive minutes and take their share of defensive duties to ease up the load on the real "1st" line.  Hansen rejuvenates the Sedins with his speed and digging skills.  They will get 16-19 minutes of ice including PP time.

 

I would form a weaker "2nd" scoring line of Baertschi-Granlund-Virtanen. This is a development line, much like the Sedins' line during the WCE era. They will see 12-15 minutes of ice including PP time but against weaker opponents and be allowed to develop some chemistry and hone their skills.

The fourth line will stay the same with Burrows-Gaunce-Dorsett. This is a reliable fourth line that can play 10-15 minutes.

 

 

Eriksson is not a good fit with Horvat and Sutter re playing style. 

Baer is a poor fit with Virtanen - they simply don't process the game the same way.  

[aGENT]

3 minutes ago, mll said:

 

Eriksson is not a good fit with Horvat and Sutter re playing style. 

Baer is a poor fit with Virtanen - they simply don't process the game the same way.  

 

Agree again...

 

36 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Sedin, Sedin, Sutter/Hansen

Baer, Granlund, Eriksson (lower QOC and O zone starts)

Virtanen, Horvat, Hansen/Sutter

Burr, Gaunce, Dorsett

 

[mll]

1 minute ago, J.R. said:

 

Agree again...

 

 

 

This would make the most sense in the immediate re playing style.

Although I also like Horvat instead of Granlund because he can push the pace.  I also think it would benefit Horvat's game to play with Baer-Eriksson and then have a line of Granlund Sutter Virtanen.  Hansen with the Sedins.

[khay]

7 minutes ago, mll said:

 

Eriksson is not a good fit with Horvat and Sutter re playing style. 

Baer is a poor fit with Virtanen - they simply don't process the game the same way.  

 

True. My main point was to form a strong line around Horvat. I just don't think that we have the resources to be spreading out talent across four lines. But of you are right that playing style needs to be taken into consideration.

 

39 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Sedin, Sedin, Sutter/Hansen

Baer, Granlund, Eriksson (lower QOC and O zone starts)

Virtanen, Horvat, Hansen/Sutter

Burr, Gaunce, Dorsett

 

I like these lines, my only concern is Virtanen. Playing Virt with Horvat and Hansen means either we cannot deploy that line against the best of the best or Virt sits and someone else takes that spot in the 3rd period.

 

There isn't much resources for line combination to do in the first place. We all noticed how Bo is slowed down by Baertschi who is close but have not yet fully developed. I proposed a line of Eriksson-Horvat-Sutter to load up on a line with the best players possible that can be relied upon for almost all situations and stay together to further develop chemistry. I still think it's a good line combination and that it's worth trying but I do agree with @J.R.'s line proposal and the @mll's comments that Eriksson and Horvat may not have compatible playing style. 

 

I think the ideal roster should not have more than 2 developing players and 2 vets. On our roster,

 

The players in their prime: Sutter, Hansen, Eriksson, Horvat (one could argue that he's entered his prime and still rising), and Dorsett. 

 

The players still developing: Baertschi, Granlund, Gaunce, and Virtanen.

 

The players past their prime past their prime: Sedin, Sedin, and Burrows.

 

That's the ratio of 5:4:3.

We have far too few players in their prime and too many players either past their prime or developing (although one could argue that the Sedins are still effective, which I agree to some degree).

 

That's the problem and we all know it. This is just another article aimed at making fun of the Canucks.

 

 

[aGENT]

Just now, mll said:

 

This would make the most sense in the immediate re playing style.

Although I also like Horvat instead of Granlund because he can push the pace.  I also think it would benefit Horvat's game to play with Baer-Eriksson and then have a line of Granlund Sutter Virtanen.  Hansen with the Sedins.

 

Unlike most of CDC, I don't really like Baer with Horvat. WD was right when he said they pull each other away from their natural strengths/play styles.

 

Baer should not be starting largely in the D zone and playing North/South. He needs guys he can dish with and more O zone starts. Stops, starts, curls, passes and shots.

 

Horvat should be doing those things however and be playing with tenacious puck pursuing, North South, counter punching guys. Sutter, Hansen, Virtanen and even Dorsett.