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Analytics were right about Gudbranson


Matt_T83

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8 hours ago, Ruxin'sVinegarStrokes said:

To get 5 million you need to get points.  I'm sure someone will find a 5 million dollar 13 point defenseman but off the top of my head I don't know of one.  here are his career stats for reference:

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=116033

I agree. But then we paid Sbisa 3.6. He isn't very good at scoring or defending. Plus that contract would be 3 years earlier. 5 isn't much of a stretch all things considered even if there aren't too many kicking around. I sure hope not though. Also, I figure a good or bad season with a player like Gudbranson probably doesn't stretch his value too much unless he does put up points. 

 

Methot 4.9, Petry 5.5, Bogosian 5.1 . Not too many examples. 

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I actually thought that best part of Gudbransen was going to be come play off time.

If we are going to see any playoff games here in the next few years, I think we will see the true benefit of Gudbransen once the referees start to put their whistles away.

Can't wait to see Gudbransen and Tryamkin hammer opposition forwards all game long. Maybe even Sbisa...

I think Gudbranson will get around 5mill/year on his next contract.

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On 11/18/2016 at 4:24 PM, Mattrek said:

 

You do realize most defenseman hit their peak at 29 right? It takes much longer for a defenseman to gain the experience to play effectively at the NHL level. That's why you never see a draft pick defenseman join the team immediately yet you see a handful of forwards join the NHL every year. Defense is the most valuable and hardest to adjust position in hockey and takes a long time to master. Come back to me in 5 years and we'll see what your thoughts are then.

 

You are correct, it takes longer to develop defenseman.  My point is that hockey sense is an inherent skill.  It can't be learned or developed.  You picking up what I'm putting down?

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1 hour ago, LimitedEdition said:

 

You are correct, it takes longer to develop defenseman.  My point is that hockey sense is an inherent skill.  It can't be learned or developed.  You picking up what I'm putting down?

 

Yes, but hockey sense has to be used the right way in the right situations for it to be successful. Growing up with one team and it's players, coaches and systems and then moving to another team with completely different everything takes time to adjust. He has the hockey sense, he just hasn't figured out how to use it in a productive way yet. There was a reason behind Willie Mitchell's tweet. Give him a couple seasons and we'll start to see how much of a steal we really got.

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1 hour ago, Mattrek said:

 

Yes, but hockey sense has to be used the right way in the right situations for it to be successful. Growing up with one team and it's players, coaches and systems and then moving to another team with completely different everything takes time to adjust. He has the hockey sense, he just hasn't figured out how to use it in a productive way yet. There was a reason behind Willie Mitchell's tweet. Give him a couple seasons and we'll start to see how much of a steal we really got.

 

I like the optimism.  I hope you're right.

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On 11/21/2016 at 11:01 PM, guntrix said:

He's playing exactly as he did when he was in Florida. 

 

He did not really regress, nor did he improve... he stayed the same. If anything, it's indicative of Gudbranson's level as a player. We can't use this new system, new partner excuse if he's actually been statistically consistent with his play. 

Attitude and a player's ability to help with the team's chemistry are positives, but they're not everything.

 

If our ultimate goal is to win a cup, then we need our top D to be damn good at what they do. Gud would probably be a fringe top 4 (maybe less) with a contending team. We need guys who get things done, not a bunch of good guy Gregs. I've no doubt Gudbranson is a swell guy to get a beer with but he's not getting us a cup, at least not as a core piece.

Do you actually play hockey? There's always a 'feeling out" period as you learn teammates tendencies and the system you play. It's not an excuse. Go strap on some blades and play with a bunch of guys you don't know and have never played with before.

 

Hockey is not stats alone.

 

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I haven't seen all of the games this year, but I've probably seen half, and I went to opening night. And every time I've seen Gudbranson I've liked what he's brought, he's not always perfect but he plays the game the right way and is a guy u can count on to play hard. He's played a lot of minutes & I think he has handled them very well, he's continuing to build off he'a his playoffs & end to last season.  

 

I think he will get over 4.5 Million between 4-6 years & I think that's fair, if it's over 5 it's a bit of a gamble. But we will see how he continues to play, the conversation could be different at the end of the year. 

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He really stepped up his game tonight. Gudbranson is starting to find his way on his new team. He needs to work on his consistency, but I'm still not seeing anything that points to us losing the trade with Florida if anything I'm seeing more and more signs of the opposite.

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11 minutes ago, The Lock said:

I also find it funny how "analytics" made Florida worse in the standings and Arizona bottom 2 in the league. Florida not having Gudbranson sure made them better, huh?

 

Good job analytics. Good job....

i have actually been noticing this as well with interest

those are the 2 teams that have overtly declared their over reliance on analytics

and both teams have not improved as a result

but kinda hard to really know after only about 20 games

but maybe after 60 games this issue can be revisited

i'm holding my views in check till there is a larger game sample

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Just now, coastal.view said:

i have actually been noticing this as well with interest

those are the 2 teams that have overtly declared their over reliance on analytics

and both teams have not improved as a result

but kinda hard to really know after only about 20 games

but maybe after 60 games this issue can be revisited

i'm holding my views in check till there is a larger game sample

 

Yeah, to be fair, I'm mostly on the fence with it at this point, although I had my doubts on analytics even before the season especially given what "logic" analytics guys on this site have provided. I actually kind of hope it fails just because it would change the entire league if it was found to be highly successful. But, like you, I'm staying reserved on it for the most part until there's a larger sample size.... to analyze... :o

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1 hour ago, The Lock said:

 

Yeah, to be fair, I'm mostly on the fence with it at this point, although I had my doubts on analytics even before the season especially given what "logic" analytics guys on this site have provided. I actually kind of hope it fails just because it would change the entire league if it was found to be highly successful. But, like you, I'm staying reserved on it for the most part until there's a larger sample size.... to analyze... :o

I thought the Arizona GM was pretty up front when he said the more data they accumulated the more accurate their conclusions. Benning seemed to say that it was one tool of many that they use.

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2 hours ago, Boudrias said:

I thought the Arizona GM was pretty up front when he said the more data they accumulated the more accurate their conclusions. Benning seemed to say that it was one tool of many that they use.

 

The difference is the Arizona GM is using mostly, if not entirely, analytics. Benning only uses analytics to assist. There's a big difference there.

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22 hours ago, The Lock said:

 

The difference is the Arizona GM is using mostly, if not entirely, analytics. Benning only uses analytics to assist. There's a big difference there.

Let me sum up Analytics like this. Arizona 1 Vancouver 4.

 

Clearly the Arizona GM, "Captain Analytics" forgot to carry the two. Always check your math kids!!!

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