Jump to content
The Official Site of the Vancouver Canucks
Canucks Community

Analytics were right about Gudbranson


Matt_T83

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, EmilyM said:

We will probably end up winning this deal in the end. But I see where the frustration comes from.
Management seems to prefer the lower ceiling/safer choice in most instances whereas the fanbase is desperate for a top end talent guy up front.
We trade off wildcards like McCann. We pass on hit or miss draftees like Nylander/Ehlers (who, by all evidence so far, see like they are sure fire hits now)

Will Gudbranson and Virtanen eventually become top end guys? Maybe. Much higher likelihood that both will end up as very serviceable players throughout their careers. Not bad at all. But we, as fans, see that looming darkness, and that darkness is coming up quick. And I mean the post-Sedin era. We need replacements asap. Would McCann eventually have been that guy? Probably not. If everything aligned just right, maybe! But a higher likelihood that he would not have. But he represented hope. That's what we are desperate for.

 

Very well said. You definitely captured my feelings on the matter. I'd much rather we take some risks on wild card prospects than make these silly 'safe' choices for middling defensemen and middling forwards. We're going to end up with a team full of bottom 4 defensemen and 'top 9' forwards. If we take a chance on a bunch of prospects like McCann and strike out, so what. At least we end up with some draft lottery picks. Right now I feel like we're committing to not winning the lottery (being just good enough to avoid it) but not making the playoffs. So we're just going to be bad for a long time with no hope in sight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course they were right, numbers don't lie.  Gudbranson was instantly over rated in this market the moment this trade happened.  But these were the same people that thought there was a continent wide media conspiracy against the Canucks, for daring to question Benning's (lack of) direction for the team. 

 

Gudbranson is what he is.  A big physical Dman that's great in the room but at best, a 2nd pairing guy.  I'm the biggest critic of Benning but I like this trade.  Whether you're top of the league or doing a fire sale rebuild, you need leaders that will stand up for their teammates.  They're a big part of what makes a team, a team. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said:

 

I would say the complete opposite. However, I agree with you about the RFA year for Gudbranson. If he has a terrible year, we should sign him for as long as possible with as lowball an offer as we can get away with. He'll have no leverage and no choice but to take it. 

 

But I think Hutton has been okay, considering this is his 2nd year. I have far higher expectations of Gudbranson than I do Hutton. And Gudbranson has ONE job, which is to keep pucks out of our net. He's clearly shown he's not very effective as a shutdown defenseman. And if he's not driving scoring points, driving play/possession, or shutting down opposing scorers... what exactly is he doing? 

 

No one has posted clearly one thing that Gudbranson really brings to the ice, other than a vague "hurr durr he's a big man".

 

 

 

Hutton has been pretty bad, a lot worse than Gudbranson IMO. He's a 2nd year player but that doesn't rule him out for criticism. So far this season he has been a liability in his own end more so than any other defenseman besides Larsen and maybe Sbisa and has gotten caught pinching numerous times. I feel that he is not ready yet for the responsibility, he looks like he still needs sheltering. I think he'll be good though, just needs time to develop.

 

I implied that Gudbranson would be bad but to start and will gradually get better and I have stated my reasons why. I don't expect him to improve overnight so I'll be pretty patient with Guddy. I still think that it was a good move. I am not giving him high expectations early on since the circumstances seem set up against him this year.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I followed and watched the Panthers all last season and playoffs.  He is big, physical, can clear the net and block shots.  

 

But his foot speed and overall quickness lacks.  Islanders would dump the puck into the corners and Gudy would struggle turning, getting to loose pucks, and simple clears and breakouts would be a challenge and a shift in themselves.

 

Stay at home defensman, that won't give you much offense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Matt_T83 said:

I never liked this trade from the moment I saw it. We gave up a legit top scoring prospect in McCann for a defenseman who has proven himself to be average at best. I don't care if he was a third overall pick -- none of that matters. This article hit the nail on the head months ago when the trade went down:

 

http://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/putting-the-erik-gudbranson-trade-in-context-1.2266986

 

Gudbranson is now a team low -9. He can't score, and as the article says he 'bleeds shots against'. This was an awful trade and Florida doesn't miss him one bit. He's nothing more than a third pairing defenseman, one that we paid a premium for. 

 

I'd much rather our team take the direction of the Arizona Coyotes and hire a young analytics guru as our GM. Benning is way too oldschool and out of touch with modern hockey operations.

 

When you draw tough assignments and your team doesn't score much the odds are pretty good you'll be a minus.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Whether you're top of the league or doing a fire sale rebuild, you need leaders that will stand up for their teammates.  They're a big part of what makes a team, a team. "

 

heh, just like when Hamhuis helped out an overmatched Dorsett (re: last Canucks-Flames playoff series.  Pizza was too busy on the ice doing....I dunno....

 

Only mention this because it should be Hamhuis on the 3rd pairing instead of Pizza if Benning hadn't hand that rediculous contract extension to Pizza. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

"Whether you're top of the league or doing a fire sale rebuild, you need leaders that will stand up for their teammates.  They're a big part of what makes a team, a team. "

 

heh, just like when Hamhuis helped out an overmatched Dorsett (re: last Canucks-Flames playoff series.  Pizza was too busy on the ice doing....I dunno....

 

Only mention this because it should be Hamhuis on the 3rd pairing instead of Pizza if Benning hadn't hand that rediculous contract extension to Pizza. 

That's a pretty random thing to be so upset about, considering the sea of.. questionable moves this team has taken. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Him and Hutton do not look good together at all. They are having trouble finding that chemistry and Hutton isn't helping Gud's cause at all with his flotsam and jetsam start to this season. Whatever Hutton changed he should unchange back into last years Hutton (which was quicker simpler and had less turnovers)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

this team needed a big hard hitting defenseman to play against the big forwards in the pacific division. so benning went out and got one.  mccann will be really good one day but gudbranson is what they need right now.  people always like to live in the past. we should of drafted....... we shouldn't have made this trade......we should have traded higgins for a first round pick.  as far as i know, they can't go back and not do things they've done.  it is too bad, they can't make everyone happy.. we have never in all the years of canuck's history, had GM's and coaches, who have made everyone happy. our opinions are always right, right?

Quote

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, SaintPatrick33 said:

 

Yea but a D-first system should suit Gud well since he cannot play an up-tempo puck moving style. He is -9, and maybe most of that is hutton, but then that is why he is paired with a liability like Hutton. He should be covering much better, but it is still early. By summertime we can evaluate how he fits into this team. 

Maybe he is the reason that Hutton is regressing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

These types of threads will be never be ending until the club starts to win again.

Maybe years but it is part of what a rebuilding club goes through.

Hockey is a team sport and until they start to play like a team for a consistent 60 minutes no one can be eveluated properly or fairly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was curious about how 44 and 27 do together and apart this season so I looked at 5 on 5 numbers from http://hockeyviz.com/.

 

Pairings - Score-adj. CF : Score-adj. CA - Score-adj. CF% - minutes played 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Together - 53:53 - 50% - 246
44 without 27 - 39:59 - 40% - 39

27 without 44 - 50:60 - 45% - 53

 

It is obvious that minutes played apart are really low so statistically results are not relevant there (!). Anyway, it seems like when apart they are not doing great - 44 offense is worsening, 27 defence is worsening (again, not enough data to judge though). Together they are on 50% Corsi For percentage = average.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Analytics are a measurement of end results which of course stem from a more basic reality.

     

     A players anaylitics will change depending on the choices players, coaches and management make from day to day, moment to moment. (Not to mention things that are uncontrollable, like Weather, Traffic, and bad News!)

 

     

     

     

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ThePeaceAwakens said:

Analytics are a measurement of end results which of course stem from a more basic reality.

     

     A players anaylitics will change depending on the choices players, coaches and management make from day to day, moment to moment. (Not to mention things that are uncontrollable, like Weather, Traffic, and bad News!)

 

     

     

     

Analytics can measure things happening before end results like Zone Exits, Zone Entries, can measure context like Zone Starts and many more. But yeah I agree they are still limited by other factors. That´s why it needs to be researched what is the significance of each emasure to final results. I understand analytics as added information, it is another piece to puzzle that can help. But better be careful and putting things in context in order to be effective.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...