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Canucks Goals Per Game Assessment


Derp...

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Can The Canucks Expect To Score More Goals Per Game?

Just looking at some numbers to see if we can expect the Canucks to improve in their goal differential this year. Our current numbers are:

  • 2.2 Goals Per game for
  • 3.1 Goals Per game against
  • Not going to cut it for playoffs...

 

Right now through 20 games the Canucks have:

  • 629 USAT For (31.5/G)
  • 634 (31.7/G) against at 5v5

Pretty even in terms of the amount of pucks making it to the goal area. That's 18th best in the league in total, but doesn't account for games played.

 

We've scored 29 goals at 5v5 and given up 43. That means We are scoring on about 4.6% of our un blocked shots against the opposition at 5v5. Other teams are scoring on about 6.8% of their un blocked shots against the Canucks at 5v5. 

 

Last seasons the Canucks scored 124 5v5 goals on 2444 USAT For which equals a Shooting percentage of 5.1%. This while only getting 29.8 unblocked shot attempts per game. As you can see if this team shoots just as well as last years team at 5v5, which seems possible, we should see an uptick in 5v5 Goals this season by about 7 Goals.

 

What About 5v5 Goals Against?

Our Goals against last year based on USAT was 154/2806 for 5.5% which means if we get similar goaltending this year to last year at 5v5 then we should see a decrease of 11 goals from 154 down to 143. (2599 USAT Against with 5.5% opponent shooting percentage)

 

So at 5v5 if this team can shoot as well as last year, and get as good of goaltending as last year we should see the Canucks improve by about a combined 18 goals compared to last year.

131 for and 143 against.

 

Those numbers put us right in the conversation with other playoff teams. 

 

The big difference now comes with special teams.

Our 5v4 PK is middle of the pack, and slightly better than last year right now improving to 0.45 GA/GP from 0.50 GA/GP (5v4). Overall we gave up 0.57 PPG Against per game.

 

Last year we had 0.367 5v4 PPG/GP worst in the league

This year only 0.3 5v4 PPG/GP Terrible

Total PP Goals were 0.48/GP

This year 0.35/GP (Not normal for this group) 

 

The worst playoff team last year at 5v4 was oddly Tampa with 35 goals in 82 games still 0.427 per game equates to 10 extra goals compared to this seasons numbers for the Canucks (25 vs 35)

 

Last year the league average was about 42 goals at 5v4 and 50 PP goals overall, so in order for us to make the playoffs we need to find a way to get from this 29 PP goal pace up to the 40 mark to at least match last years numbers. If we actually become a average NHL team on the PP this could go up to about 45 Goals

 

If we can do that as well as adding a normal amount of empty net goals (need to be leading in regulation more since we only have 1) We can see this teams goals for per game go up to about:

 

PP Goals per game to last seasons numbers ^ 0.13

Normal USAT 5v5 Shooting Percentage ^ 0.085

Normal Empty Net Goal Totals ^ 0.072

 

= 0.29 more goals per game. For a total of 2.49 Goals per game!

That's 204 goals just by hitting last years PP, USAT S%, and empty net totals.

 

Common Miller and Marky!

Evening more interesting is that if we simply suppress shots at the same rate we have been (25.85 sa/gp), and get the same level of goaltending as last year by seasons end (.910 sv%) We'll only surrender 2.33 Goals Against per game. That works out to 191 GA over 82 games...

 

That's a goal differential of +13 which is top 16 in the league last year. 

 

There's still hope for playoffs if we can simply shoot as well as last year, and get the goaltending we had last year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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